Totolover's NCAA RLM

molotov mlss · 11-20-10, 10:51 AM

looking solid play... louisville has gone from +5.5 to +3.5 with 70% on west virginia...but only 4200 bets

frognose20 · 11-20-10, 10:59 AM

Originally posted by Mr. Yo

Think I might go big as well against Michigan. Wisconsin has to trounce them right?

Michigan hasn't stoped anyone yet. I can't see them stopping wisconsin. They are going to have to play perfect offense to win this game. This will be the first rlm play im going against this season. Hopefully the sharps are off on this one.

Mr. Yo · 11-20-10, 11:19 AM

Michigan is at home though and Wisconsin maybe all full of themselves after last week. Still can't go with Michigan I'm thinking

mrkron · 11-20-10, 11:22 AM

Michigan fades at years end

jbatcha21 · 11-20-10, 11:27 AM

[COLOR=#000000 !important]As additional filters....

-RLM plays that are Home Dogs of 10 or more are 91% this season.

-Oddly, when the public is between 50-60% on one side with 1pt RLM movement plays are 17-3 (85%).

-Dogs of more than 10 are 27-10 (73%)

-Dogs of more than 12 are 22-5 (81%)

-Dogs with opening line of 5 or 5.5 are 7-1 (88%)

-Dogs with opening line of 9 or 9.5 are 5-1 (83%)[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#000000 !important][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#000000 !important]Someone posted this in PB's old thread. Just thought I would copy and paste it in here since its some solid info. GL today fellas[/COLOR]

mrkron · 11-20-10, 11:29 AM

Thanks. Love Louisville

ebbearsfb1 · 11-20-10, 11:30 AM

so nothing official yet?

frognose20 · 11-20-10, 11:33 AM

Originally posted by Mr. Yo

Michigan is at home though and Wisconsin maybe all full of themselves after last week. Still can't go with Michigan I'm thinking

They played mich st. At home to and got their buts kicked. If wisconsin wasn't tied for first in the big 10 I might back mich. Since its my home team but I see them loosing by at least a touchdown.

mangina11 · 11-20-10, 11:44 AM

For some reason the early games these past couple weeks have not been doing as well, hopefully that changes today. Plays I am putting in for 1:00 games

Louisville +3.5

Troy +20.5

Mich +4

GL to all, be back before 2, for those games.

MrCondor · 11-20-10, 11:44 AM

I agree with everyone here dissing Michigan. On paper this game looks like a romp. Precisely the reason why I am on Michigan.

I don't like a team coming off a lopsided win and there are a lot of Big 10 coaches pissed at Wisky's Bielema for running up the score last week. That was atrocious. Up 69-14 in the 4th quarter and throws a 74 yard TD pass with 9 minutes left in the game. They even added another TD after that. Wisconsin deserves an ass-whipping. Hoping Michigan is motivated today and the Badgers are already counting their chickens.

doublej95 · 11-20-10, 11:51 AM

Im on Michigain +4.5 and Louisville +4.5

Other games I'm looking for action on later today are
Colorado
Cal
Ark ST
Maryland
Houston
Texas A&M

Stevedore · 11-20-10, 11:55 AM

On Lou. and Mich. and keeping an eye on Rice and Duke for the 2:00 games. They're currently RLM right now according to Insights numbers.

Zou_fan · 11-20-10, 12:01 PM

I like Mich too. Thanks for suggesting the play

benjy · 11-20-10, 12:05 PM

This is a fantastic thread. Thanks for all the contributions.

Any thoughts on Mississippi State? Though it may not be a sufficient point move I'm liking the move onto the three.

doublej95 · 11-20-10, 12:07 PM

I'm using a filter for my plays this week that I have came up with(first week trying it though with the filter), the DUKE play passes both the RLM and the filter I came up with.

Plays that matched both RLM and my filter for today.
Maryland
Duke
Cal
Colorado
Houston
Louisville
Texas A&M
Ark St

As of now will watch both RLM and my filter, my filter changes just like RLM can.

mangina11 · 11-20-10, 12:33 PM

Rice + 9

troutsky · 11-20-10, 12:52 PM

isn't ECU the team with RLM vs RIce? 66% of bets on that team and line has moved from -11 to -8?

benjy · 11-20-10, 12:56 PM

Originally posted by troutsky

isn't ECU the team with RLM vs RIce? 66% of bets on that team and line has moved from -11 to -8?

Nope. 66% (i.e. the public) should be driving line from -11 to -12 or -13, yet fewer, sharper bettors are driving Rice+11 down to Rice+8.

ebbearsfb1 · 11-20-10, 01:04 PM

northern illinois game had rlm... ball state 85 % on yet line still went up from 14.5 to 16....

and y is no one mentioning duke? georgia tech started at -13, down to 10 with 60% on them

Stevedore · 11-20-10, 01:05 PM

Originally posted by benjy

Nope. 66% (i.e. the public) should be driving line from -11 to -12 or -13, yet fewer, sharper bettors are driving Rice+11 down to Rice+8.

My 3 team RLM parlay for today: Rice +8, Wyoming -2.5, and Cincy -13.5 $135 to make $810

Stevedore · 11-20-10, 01:08 PM

Originally posted by troutsky

isn't ECU the team with RLM vs RIce? 66% of bets on that team and line has moved from -11 to -8?

Duke is the Play

Stevedore · 11-20-10, 01:10 PM

Originally posted by ebbearsfb1

northern illinois game had rlm... ball state 85 % on yet line still went up from 14.5 to 16....

and y is no one mentioning duke? georgia tech started at -13, down to 10 with 60% on them

See posts 4 and 7 above yours.

low Q · 11-20-10, 01:16 PM

Originally posted by Totolover1409

Congrats to those who cashed on UNLV. I stayed away.

I will be going to Vegas tomorrow morning (yee) and since I do not own a smartphone, I will not be able to make those last minute plays on Saturday since I won't be able to keep track of those line changes. Thus, I will be posting the "early leans/potential RLM plays" now (Friday morning 2:30am). Be smart and check the line before the game starts.

Early leans for Saturday's games:

Vanderbilt +9 (Line moved from +10.5 to +9 with 87% on Tennessee. Only 4500 bets placed) (Playa-playa, I gotta go against you on this one).

Maryland +3.5 (Line moved from +5.5 to +3.5 with 58% on Florida state and roughly 2500 bets placed)

Duke +10.5 (Line moved from +12.5 to +10.5 with 59% on Georgia Tech and only 1155 bets placed)

Cincinatti -13.5 (Line moved from -11.5 to -13.5 with 71% on Rutgers and only 1500 bets placed)

Michigan +4 (Line moved from +6 to +4 with 85% on Wisconsin and 6000 bets placed)

Rice +8.5 (Line moved from +11 to +8.5 with 66% on East Carolina and only 1100 bets placed)

CAL +6.5 (Line moved from +8 to +6.5 with 76% on Stanford and 4700 bets placed)

Houston U +3.5 (Line moved from +5 to +3.5 with 76% on So Mississippi and only 686 bets placed)

Arkansas State +12 (Line moved from +15.5 to +12 with 67% on Navy and only 852 bets placed)

That's what I see so far. A few things to consider. Most of these, if not all, have VERY VERY low amount of bets so these are subject to change. Also, there were a few .5 to 1 point movements that I did not consider. When the bets come in, those lines will move so keep an eye on that. Best of luck to you all and I will be posting my early leans for the NFL in the NFL thread (big RLM on the Lions as of now)

Make some cash boys

Thanks for the picks - any thought on the Iowa State/ Mizzou game tonight?

ebbearsfb1 · 11-20-10, 01:18 PM

see nothing about niu

Johnny 55 · 11-20-10, 01:40 PM

Cal is not RLM, the line move was in reaction to the injury status of Stanford's top WR. You guys mean well, but you dont really have a clue, if you are going to play RLM, and there are some solid opportunities out there, please check the injury reports, and also, try to only view Pinny's line moves and make sure the place you are getting your info from has accurate info on bets placed.

troutsky · 11-20-10, 01:47 PM

Originally posted by benjy

Nope. 66% (i.e. the public) should be driving line from -11 to -12 or -13, yet fewer, sharper bettors are driving Rice+11 down to Rice+8.

Yeah, I thought RLM is if majority of betters are on a game and the line improves. as in 66% of people even if they are pub's are on a game then the line should go from -11 to -14, but it is improving to -8 isn't it?

molotov mlss · 11-20-10, 01:49 PM

Originally posted by ebbearsfb1

northern illinois game had rlm... ball state 85 % on yet line still went up from 14.5 to 16....

and y is no one mentioning duke? georgia tech started at -13, down to 10 with 60% on them

northern illinois went from -14.5 to -15.5 with 88% on northern illinois...

QuantumLeap · 11-20-10, 01:52 PM

Hey guys, Michigan and Troy are getting blown out. What I'm wondering is maybe a 2nd half bet would be good here when a RLM team is getting blown out at the half. The linesmakers have thought that they can certainly compete and the 2nd half line has to be skewed toward the non-RLM team. Perhaps it's a good bet on the RLM team at half.

ufcmma36 · 11-20-10, 02:02 PM

michigan isnt really a blow out

jbatcha21 · 11-20-10, 02:03 PM

LOL. this discussion goes on every weekend. It's not that hard to understand folks.

jbatcha21 · 11-20-10, 02:05 PM

Damn. I missed out on the Rice game. Was thinking it started at 1:30 with Duke.

Stevedore · 11-20-10, 02:17 PM

Originally posted by mangina11

Rice + 9

Up 28-7

EricZ116 · 11-20-10, 02:53 PM

Any final plays for 3 oclock games?

mangina11 · 11-20-10, 03:03 PM

Ark St + 12

I know there was injury movement, but still playing Cal +6.5 too

Yes Duke was a play

GGPLAYER · 11-20-10, 03:05 PM

Originally posted by mangina11

For some reason the early games these past couple weeks have not been doing as well, hopefully that changes today. Plays I am putting in for 1:00 games

Louisville +3.5

Troy +20.5

Mich +4

GL to all, be back before 2, for those games.

You know I told myself not to bet the Noon games either but I took Mich and Lou.

I just feel like for the past 3 weeks or so I have lost early and spent the rest of day making it back. Not that there is much of season left but next week I will be skipping the early plays for sure. I just think as the day goes on and more bets pour in on the later games we get better quality RLM plays.