Vaughany's MMA Picks...

[Vaughany]

You never have a losing night, do ya? Good work Vaugh, especially on leading the Stann brigade. Excellent call.

Grazie Sir, ha well not for a while but it's bound to happen soon! Stann is the man...should of had more confidence in his knockout power especially with Leben's complete lack of footwork and head movement, I just thought that a decision was a lot more likely as I expected him to be a lot more cautious, rely on cardio and not engage near as much as he ended up doing. Clearly had a lot of confidence in his own ability to beat Leben to the punch and use his 3 and half inch reach advantage to good effect.

[Shagdogy]

Good stuff V. Steady profits.

[Vaughany]

Good stuff V. Steady profits.

Cheers dude, last night was an awesome card I thought...and just wen I thought I couldnt hang off Frankie's nuts anymore he goes pulls off the most amazing comeback ever! The guy is beyond legendary!

[Poppa Catfish]

Remember that stuff about not declaring a winner in the Edgar Maynard fight? We were 100% correct


Another event and another positive number, got to love it

[snake11eyes]

Nice job buddy way to start 11. Keep it up.

[Shagdogy]

...and just wen I thought I couldnt hang off Frankie's nuts anymore he goes pulls off the most amazing comeback ever! The guy is beyond legendary!

Edgar's guts and chin combination in the first round were unreal. We've never really seen him like that before. Now that we know the true strength of his chin, and his resiliency, it's gonna be hard to bet against him again. I thought that Edgar won that fight personally. I would have given him rounds 2-5 (I subscribe to the whole "gotta beat the champ" thing, which Maynard only did decisively in the first). The draw wasn't the worst judging ever though. What do you do now with Pettis? Does he get the next fight, or do you have to rematch first? I'd like to see the Pettis/Edgar fight more, but I think you've gotta let Gray and Frankie settle this one first.

[Jordan23]

Good job last night man. Looking forward to fight for the troops.

[Chairib]

I had written up my thoughts about some of these fights for you and ill but the sbr servers are trying to keep me down.

My apologies.

[Vaughany]

Sengoku Soul of Fight & Dream Dynamite Results: +1.354 units

UFC 125 Results: +3.095 units


Total Profit since Aug 26th 2010: +73.773 units

[Pride>UFC]

Sengoku Soul of Fight & Dream Dynamite Results: +1.354 units UFC 125 Results: +3.095 units Total Profit since Aug 26th 2010: +73.773 units

In all honesty, just by reading your posts...you seem pretty good...but if you do this I promise you'll do much better...Stop hedging your own bets! Trust your instincts.

[Poppa Catfish]

I thought arbing and good hedges was how he made most of his money, and you want him to stop doing that?

[lasker]

I actually think it's an alternative worth tracking, at least with the straddles. By all means keep betting them, since you're doing so well, but maybe also keep track of which one you would have bet if you had only bet one side. Keep records of that for a while and see which method is more profitable for you long-term. Just as an experiment/test, and whatever the results it will give you more confidence which way to bet when you're on the fence.

[Vaughany]

As Poppa says I have made most my profits from arbing and prop-hedges. And with all the dodgy decisions that go on I am hesistant to bet outright on one fighter when I feel his opponent has a good chance of taking a decision simply because of how there style will be looked upon favourably by judges. For instance my play on Lil Heathen against Guillard was saved by a Guillard by decision hedge. Yeah good points Lask and I've been meaning to do something like that for a while. And now that I've reached over 70 units profit I will be making more straight-up plays with bigger stakes. This of course will mean more risk than if I did a hedge, but also more potential profit margin, and as I've made a bit of money now I think I can start doing that. Also, in the last couple UFC events I have been experimenting a bit more with the "KO of the Night" and "Sub of the Night" type props which havn't really proven to be very fruitful except for Guida Sub of the Night the other night, and I had GSP/Koscheck Fight of the Night at UFC124 but what I won from that only cancelled out my other plays on SOTN, FOTN, AND KOTN that I didnt win.

[Vaughany]

Edgar's guts and chin combination in the first round were unreal. We've never really seen him like that before. Now that we know the true strength of his chin, and his resiliency, it's gonna be hard to bet against him again. I thought that Edgar won that fight personally. I would have given him rounds 2-5 (I subscribe to the whole "gotta beat the champ" thing, which Maynard only did decisively in the first). The draw wasn't the worst judging ever though. What do you do now with Pettis? Does he get the next fight, or do you have to rematch first? I'd like to see the Pettis/Edgar fight more, but I think you've gotta let Gray and Frankie settle this one first.

Yeah was an unbelievable display of heart, almost made me weep with pride! As much as a Frankie nuthugger as I am I dont think u could give that fight to Frankie. Im not sure were I saw it, maybe Ariel Helwani's interview with Dana, but they wer sayin how if that wasnt a 10-7 round then a 10-7 is obsolete and cant exist, which I'd have to agree with. If Edgar had done that to Maynard and then only got a 10-8 and the fight ended a draw or Maynard won a split I'd of been spittin out my dummy and moaning about how it wasnt a 10-7! But nontheless I believe he deserved a draw just because of the heart he showed!

Good job last night man. Looking forward to fight for the troops.

Cheer bro, yeah if it's anything like the last Fight for the Troops event this one should be awesome! Based on the last one and what happened it seems almost as if the fighters' masculinity, aggression, patriarchy, and sheer ruthlessness was ignited in the presence of all those soldies and War Heroes, and consequently lead to some brutal finishes (Koscheck KO'ing Yoshida, Swick over Goulet, Saunders creating the biggest hematoma on Brandon Wolffs head I've ever seen, Corey Hill's sick leg injury, and Cantwell snappin Al-Hassans arm! I believe only 3 of the 10 fights at that event went to decision with only 1 going to decision on main card which is considerably low, however I think a couple of the events before and after that Fight for the Troops card also only had 3 fights go to decision, so probably shouldnt read too much into that!

I had written up my thoughts about some of these fights for you and ill but the sbr servers are trying to keep me down. My apologies.

Ah no worries man... they cant stop the truth from coming out forever! Cole Miller vs Wiman could be a good one to break down for the next card? I dont really know who Im leaning towards on that one but I have a feeling that Wiman might come out undervalued in the betting lines Like a play on it going to decision if better then Evens odds as well. Both tough dudes who can take a punch and my initial thoughts are that Wiman has good enough grappling to avoid being subbed by Cole.

[Vaughany]

Early UFC 126 Plays:

2.195 units on Griffin/Franklin to decision at +120 to win 2.634 units (plus stake), and 0.43 units on Griffin/Franklin to decision at Evens to win 0.43 units (plus stake);

0.5 units on Jon Jones by decision at +400 to win 2 units (plus stake).

[lasker]

unbelievable, these lines you get! Love Jones by decision +400 as well, but of course on 5dimes it will be probably be closer to +200

[Vaughany]

ha yeah I was expecting them to bring Franklin/Griffin to decision out at least at -125, especially seeing as they've tightened up a lot with their prop bets recently. And yeah I expect the US books to have Bones by decision at +200 to +300 range. Paddy seem to be favouring the TKO/KO finish in favour of Bones and Franklin big time - Bones is -137.5 and Franklin +150.

[sirchadwick1]

Vaughany, I always enjoy reading your writeups and analysis. What book do you get the FOTN, SOTN, etc. prop bets at?

[Vaughany]

Vaughany, I always enjoy reading your writeups and analysis. What book do you get the FOTN, SOTN, etc. prop bets at?

Cheers bro, will be doing a couple write-ups as soon as some of the odds for Fight for the Troops are out. Most of my props and SOTN, FOTN etc... have been through paddypower as they tend to bring them out earliest. Sometimes use other UK based online books (depending on the odds) such as Stanjames, WilliamHill (tend to be best for the SOTN, KOTN and FOTN value) and Skybet. Also now have accounts with Sportbet and Pinnacle so tend to use them now for most my bets and will be even more reliant on them now that Paddypower are restricting how much I can put on!

[Jordan23]

Good luck on 126.. Do you have any early leans for a parlay?

[JediMind87]

Sengoku Soul of Fight & Dream Dynamite Results: +1.354 units

UFC 125 Results: +3.095 units


Total Profit since Aug 26th 2010: +73.773 units

WOW, your a beast.Good Job.

I might withdraw my 401k $$$ and put it on Hominick since youre backing him lol

[Vaughany]

Good luck on 126.. Do you have any early leans for a parlay?

Cheers I like Ellenberger, Anderson and Pierce to win for sure but they're rather chalky so may have to parlay those three. When I do parlays though I try to spread them out over a number of events so that I have the option of hedging, so may mix up some Fight For the Troops fights (Mitrione, Barry) with 126 (Ellenberger, Anderson, Pierce, Mendes) and 127 (Fitch, Bisping).

[Vaughany]

WOW, your a beast.Good Job.

I might withdraw my 401k $$$ and put it on Hominick since youre backing him lol

Thank you Sir! Ha Im almost so confident about Hominick that it's one of those that's bound to go wrong! I really dont see any facet where Hominick is at a disadvantage apart from the reach advantage that Roop will have. However, I expect this fight to look very similar to Wineland vs Roop where Wineland just tooled with Roop for 3 rounds as if he was in a sparring session. Add the fact that Hominick has an underrated submission game so even if Roop takes him down like he did against Garcia he may well end up on his back due to Hominick's sweeps and then arm barred or arm-triangled. Hominick has apparently been working extra hard on his wrestling as well at Brock University with Sean Pierson (who was National Freestyle Champ there and we all saw how well he did against Riddle). Unfortuntely I dont expect Hominick to come out undervalued like he did agaisnt Garcia and presume he'll be at least -200 favourite.

[ddream1]

agreed V. waiting on that line aswell.

[Ewoi]

I think Roop is a tough fight for Mark Hominick. He is much bigger and has better wrestling to control Mark. He has the reach and height advantage like you mentioned. Also, Roop has Shawn Tompkins in his corner who knows Mark's game very well. Although having Tompkins in his corner might be a disadvantage as we saw in Horodecki's last fight. So I'd lean on Hominick but he's far from being a lock.

[Vaughany]

I think Roop is a tough fight for Mark Hominick. He is much bigger and has better wrestling to control Mark. He has the reach and height advantage like you mentioned. Also, Roop has Shawn Tompkins in his corner who knows Mark's game very well. Although having Tompkins in his corner might be a disadvantage as we saw in Horodecki's last fight. So I'd lean on Hominick but he's far from being a lock.

Where have u heard that Tompkins is going to be in Roops corner? Hominick has just gone to Vegas to train with Tompkins for the final couple of weeks of his training!

[Ewoi]

My mistake, I was re-watching the Roop vs Jung fight and saw Tompkins in his corner and forgot that Tompkins is still training with Mark. Anyways, its interesting that they both train under Tompkins and I'm sure that they have sparred together. I think Roop should recognize that he is at a disadvantage in terms of the stand-up aspect and shall try his hardest to take Mark down. But Mark has been working in his grappling as you mentioned.

[Vaughany]

Very squarish parlay!:

Parlay: 0.837 units on Mitrione, Barry, Hominick, & Ellenberger to win 2.17 units (plus stake).

[Vaughany]

Not the odds I was hoping for but:

2.5 units on Hominick at -224 to win 1.116 units (plus stake).

[Vaughany]

1 unit on Wiman at +190 to win 1.9 units (plus stake).

[Vaughany]

Added:

0.4 units on Mitrione by Decision at +333 to win 1.333 units (plus stake);

0.211 units on Wiman by KO at +750 to win 1.582 units (plus stake);

0.2 units on Hominick by Submission at +400 to win 0.8 units (plus stake);

0.05 units on Beltran by Submission at +1400 to win 0.7 units (plus stake).

[lasker]

Wiman by KO/TKO +750? What are these guys smoking?

Beltran by submission +1400 is also nice, considering he's up against a guy with no submission defense but superior striking, someone Beltran may have to try to take down at some point.

[gym rat]

Added:

0.4 units on Mitrione by Decision at +333 to win 1.333 units (plus stake);

0.211 units on Wiman by KO at +750 to win 1.582 units (plus stake);

0.2 units on Hominick by Submission at +400 to win 0.8 units (plus stake);

0.05 units on Beltran by Submission at +1400 to win 0.7 units (plus stake).

What sportsbook has these odds? European Book?

[Vaughany]

What sportsbook has these odds? European Book?

Yeah Paddypower.

[Vaughany]

Wiman by KO/TKO +750? What are these guys smoking?

Beltran by submission +1400 is also nice, considering he's up against a guy with no submission defense but superior striking, someone Beltran may have to try to take down at some point.

Yee I dont expect to see Wiman by TKO/KO at +750 on bookmaker or sportbet/5dimes! Would of put more on but that was the pitiful max limit that Paddy have set for me They're favouring Miller by sub big time at +150. Wiman by decision is +320 which is also interesting and -120 for the fight to go distance.

Beltran looks in his best shape yet and I feel should try and get this fight to the ground as quickly as possible and try and get a sub. Unfortunetly, I doutb that this will happen based on what he is sayin in pre-fight interviews that he wants to stand and bang with Barry as that's what the troops want to see! Hopefully he'll take a leg kick or two and soon change is mind! Nontheless I feel +1400 is decent value, especially seeing as theyve got Barry by Sub at +1000!

With regards to the Hominick by Sub play at +400, I feel that the most likely outcome of this fight is Hominick by decision (which Paddy have at +120). Roop is very tough and durable (never been TKO'd or KO'd) and Im not sure if Hominick will be able to finish him by TKO either. However, if Hominick does land one of his trademark livershots (and he has said in a pre-fight interview that gettin inside and delivering body shots are gonna be his main weapon in this fight) he could well fold Roop over leading to a submission possibility. Roop has had trouble with submissions in the past, he lost to Phillipe Nover in the first round of his TUF fight by sub, and he got armbarred twice and choked out once by three unknowns earlier on in his career. Roop may also look for the takedown against Hominick which will only further lead him in to danger as Hominick has an underated ground game. He showed he can sweep even after gettin knocked down by Jabouin in their fight, and he has submitted Savant Young, Yves Edwards and Bryan Caraway in the past.