Vaughany's MMA Picks...

[Vaughany]

Also got:

0.2 units on Pierson at +275 to win 0.55 units (plus stake);

2 units on J.Miller at +105 to win 2.1 units (plus stake).

[BIGDAY]

Love Jim Miller here. I found him at +115. Best of luck this weekend!

[Vaughany]

Love Jim Miller here. I found him at +115. Best of luck this weekend!

Cheers bro, good luck to u 2. Yeah I was too quick to jump the gun! Came out on Pinnacle at -101 and didnt think it would get better than +105 so took that, but ended up reaching +119 at one point on pinny so should of waited. Not too much of a difference tho.

[kiefynugs]

I went a little nuts with miller. Hit him with 2 units like three times. Once when he hit +105 and twice when he hit +112. Line is shrinking back to EV now so looks like I hit it right. But still, big risk for a close fight.

I feel good about it, though. It's rare we see prospects get thrown that deep and Miller is game right now and showing no signs of stopping.

[Vaughany]

I went a little nuts with miller. Hit him with 2 units like three times. Once when he hit +105 and twice when he hit +112. Line is shrinking back to EV now so looks like I hit it right. But still, big risk for a close fight.

I feel good about it, though. It's rare we see prospects get thrown that deep and Miller is game right now and showing no signs of stopping.

Well I've hedged my Miller play with the fight going the distance just in case Oliveira gets the decision (which wouldnt be surprising even if he gets dominated!). Might even hedge further with Oliveira Submission of the Night at +900.

[kiefynugs]

Well I've hedged my Miller play with the fight going the distance just in case Oliveira gets the decision (which wouldnt be surprising even if he gets dominated!). Might even hedge further with Oliveira Submission of the Night at +900.

haha i might borrow that move from you if bookmaker gets the stones to put up some prop odds for this event.

[Vaughany]

As I've done pretty well recently and am due a bad event I thought I'd do a little experimenting and try spreading my bets on the event bonuses!:

0.3 units on GSP 'Submission of the Night' at +700 to win 2.1 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Struve 'Submission of the Night' at +900 to win 0.9 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Dan Miller 'Submission of the Night' at +1200 to win 1.2 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Stevenson 'Submission of the Night' at +1600 to win 1.6 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Hazelett 'Submission of the Night' at +900 to win 0.9 units (plus stake);

0.2 units on Oliveira 'Submission of the Night' at +1100 to win 2.2 units (plus stake);

0.025 units on Natal 'Submission of the Night' at +2800 to win 0.7 units (plus stake);



0.1 units on Thiago Alves 'KO of the Night' at +450 to win 0.45 units (plus stake);

0.05 units on Makdessi 'KO of the Night' at +2200 to win 1.1 units (plus stake);

0.025 units on Struve 'KO of the Night' at +900 to win 0.225 units (plus stake);

0.02 units on Pierson 'KO of the Night' at +3000 to win 0.6 units (plus stake);



0.563 units on Thiago Alves/Howard 'Fight of the Night' at +750 to win 4.223 units (plus stake);

0.09 units on Miller/Oliveira 'Fight of the Night' at +800 to win 0.72 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on GSP/Koscheck 'Fight of the Night' at +550 to win 0.55 units (plus stake).


Still deciding on what to do with McCorkle...will either do McCorkle 'Sub of the Night' or/and 'KO of the Night'; or just McCorkle to win in Rnd 1.

[BIGDAY]

I went a little nuts with miller. Hit him with 2 units like three times. Once when he hit +105 and twice when he hit +112. Line is shrinking back to EV now so looks like I hit it right. But still, big risk for a close fight.

I feel good about it, though. It's rare we see prospects get thrown that deep and Miller is game right now and showing no signs of stopping.

YEs, I see it has went down around EV now at most books.

[urge2kill]

Miller is still +112 or better at several books.

[RaiderNation MMA]

mcorkle is easyyyyyyy money boys

[lasker]

Still deciding on what to do with McCorkle...will either do McCorkle 'Sub of the Night' or/and 'KO of the Night'; or just McCorkle to win in Rnd 1.

I like McCorkle to win in Rnd 1 as a hedge. He may win but I don't seem him winning after round 1.

[Vaughany]

K1 Grand Prix 2010 Plays:

0.5 units on Overeem to Win Grand Prix at +225 to win 1.125 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Ghita to Win Grand Prix at +550 to win 0.55 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Gokhan Saki to Win Grand Prix at +900 to win 0.9 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Gokhan Saki to beat Ghita at +225 to win 0.225 units (plus stake);

Parlay: 0.05 units on Ghita, Aerts, & Overeem to win 0.079 units (plus stake).

[brooks85]

what odds do you have for schilt to win the GP, just out of curiosity? BM has it -135... utter garbage. I can ghita at +500 which Im going to take for some action.

its funny too, BM has odds on newton and texiera to win but they are not in the GP haha

[urge2kill]

Bodog has it at even for Schilt to win the GP. Isn't Texiera a reserve match?

[Vaughany]

what odds do you have for schilt to win the GP, just out of curiosity? BM has it -135... utter garbage. I can ghita at +500 which Im going to take for some action.

its funny too, BM has odds on newton and texiera to win but they are not in the GP haha

ha Zimmerman and Teixeira are reserves I think...StanJames have got them listed as well and they are more favoured than Spong and Mighty Mo!

Schilt odds are similar on my book...-137.5. Surely Semmy cant jab his way to winning the whole thing by decisions again?! One of Ghita, Ubereem or Saki have the potential to TKO/KO him in the final I think!

[brooks85]

that is what threw me off, tex and newton are +1500 at bm but might mo is +2200, they must be counting on someone getting wrecked.

Schilt is the clear favorite imo but Im surprised to see -135 to win the GP, that is just a horrible line for a K1 GP, especially if newton/teixeira get in. I think Overeem has a lot to prove, I dont think he has fought a legit opponent in MMA or K1 since the Hari KO loss, ghita or saki will take him into deep waters tho

[Vaughany]

K1 Grand Prix 2010 Review:

K1 Grand Prix 2010 Plays:

0.5 units on Overeem to Win Grand Prix at +225 to win 1.125 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Ghita to Win Grand Prix at +550 to win 0.55 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Gokhan Saki to Win Grand Prix at +900 to win 0.9 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Gokhan Saki to beat Ghita at +225 to win 0.225 units (plus stake);

Parlay: 0.05 units on Ghita, Aerts, & Overeem to win 0.079 units (plus stake).

Total stake: 0.85 units

Total return: 1.95 units

Profit: +1.1 units

[The HOFF]

What's your final card for UFC tonight?

[Vaughany]

What's your final card for UFC tonight?

Quite a lot on the go tonight Hoff! My main plays are J.Miller and Bocek. Bocek by decision and Miller by decision would set me up nicely but as long as neither lose inside the distance I should be good. My favourite play is Alves/Howard FOTN at +750 which I believe is great value seeing as it is +350 to +600 range on most other sites and should be the favourite IMO. An early stoppage for McCorkle would also be a great bonus!


UFC 124 plays summary:


2.5 units on Bocek at Evens to win 2.5 units (plus stake);

2 units on Bocek/Hazelett to decision at +110 to win 2.2 units (plus stake);

2.5 units on Miller/Oliveira to decision at -137.5 to win 1.818 units (plus stake);

2 units on J.Miller at +105 to win 2.1 units (plus stake);

2 units on GSP by decision at +150 to win 3 units (plus stake);

0.166 units on Koscheck by TKO/KO at +900 to win 1.494 units (plus stake);

1 unit on Thiago Alves by decision at +225 to win 2.25 units (plus stake);

0.6 units on Stevenson by decision at +150 to win 0.9 units (plus stake);

0.2 units on Pierson at +275 to win 0.55 units (plus stake);

Parlay (Trebles from 4 folds): 1.2 units on Wilkinson, Stevenson, Thiago Alves, & GSP to win 2.439 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on J.Miller by decision & D.Miller by submission at +1000 to win 1 unit (plus stake);



0.1 units on Makdessi 'Quickest TKO/KO' at +1400 to win 1.4 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Audinwood 'Quickest Submission' at +1400 to win 1.4 units (plus stake);

0.2 units on McCorkle 'Quickest TKO/KO' at +900 to win 1.8 units (plus stake);

0.05 units on Stevenson 'Quickest TKO/KO at +2000 to win 1 unit (plus stake);

0.1 unit on Stevenson 'Quickest Submission' at +700 to win 0.7 units (plus stake);



0.563 units on Thiago Alves/Howard 'Fight of the Night' at +750 to win 4.223 units (plus stake);

0.09 units on Miller/Oliveira 'Fight of the Night' at +800 to win 0.72 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on GSP/Koscheck 'Fight of the Night' at +550 to win 0.55 units (plus stake);



0.2 units on McCorkle 'Submission of the Night' at +1600 to win 3.2 units (plus stake);

0.3 units on GSP 'Submission of the Night' at +700 to win 2.1 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Struve 'Submission of the Night' at +900 to win 0.9 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Dan Miller 'Submission of the Night' at +1200 to win 1.2 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Stevenson 'Submission of the Night' at +1600 to win 1.6 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Hazelett 'Submission of the Night' at +900 to win 0.9 units (plus stake);

0.2 units on Oliveira 'Submission of the Night' at +1100 to win 2.2 units (plus stake);

0.025 units on Natal 'Submission of the Night' at +2800 to win 0.7 units (plus stake);



0.2 units on McCorkle 'KO of the Night' at +1400 to win 2.8 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Thiago Alves 'KO of the Night' at +450 to win 0.45 units (plus stake);

0.05 units on Makdessi 'KO of the Night' at +2200 to win 1.1 units (plus stake);

0.025 units on Struve 'KO of the Night' at +900 to win 0.225 units (plus stake);

0.02 units on Pierson 'KO of the Night' at +3000 to win 0.6 units (plus stake).

[The HOFF]

Quite a lot on the go tonight Hoff! My main plays are J.Miller and Bocek. Bocek by decision and Miller by decision would set me up nicely but as long as neither lose inside the distance I should be good. My favourite play is Alves/Howard FOTN at +750 which I believe is great value seeing as it is +350 to +600 range on most other sites and should be the favourite IMO. An early stoppage for McCorkle would also be a great bonus!

OMG. You have a lot on this card! Well you, Ecco, and I are on Miller. Hopefully that's a good sign.

Struve is my biggest play, although still kind of a small play. I wish you the best of luck on the rest.

[Vaughany]

OMG. You have a lot on this card! Well you, Ecco, and I are on Miller. Hopefully that's a good sign.

Struve is my biggest play, although still kind of a small play. I wish you the best of luck on the rest.

Yeah Im liking your plays...see u've got Bocek as well . I was tempted by Grant but was hoping to get him at +200 or better before the lines came out so was put off a bit when he came out at +150 range. I really think this card is has great potential to be one of the most exciting of the year, I've not got as much on "to decision" bets as usual (and the ones I have I have hedged), mainly because I think the Miller/Oliviera fight is only one on the main card that I'm very confident will go the distance. Makes it a bit more exciting for me when I'm watching tonight as well as I'm not going to be just hoping for fights to go to decision which is a bit of a buzz kill, but rather hoping for guys like Joe Daddy to get an early TKO or sub, or GSP to submit Koscheck for instance.

With regard to Struve/McCorkle and my plays on McCorkle getting quickest sub/KO and Sub/KO of the Night - I see McCorkle's only chance of winning this is by winning in the first round through GnP or submission (after pounding on Struve) after getting Struve down to the ground early and being aggressive. If he does manage one of them I think he will get the Sub of the Night or KO of the Night (unless GSP KO's or subs Kos/or vice-versa) just because it is co-main event and because Struve is so hard to finish. Anyway BOL tonight Hoff

[ddream1]

best of luck with your card.

[Vaughany]

best of luck with your card.

Cheers bro, may the force be with u 2!

[Mr.Kitty]

Wow big card , lots of props as usual. I played Koscheck to win by KO/TKO @ +1000, its down to +700 now (betfair). I think its his only chance to win and +1000 definitely has value. But I am also realistic and know that the chance is small, GSP is one of my favorite fighters and hes been outstanding since the Matt Serra loss.

Good luck

[Vaughany]

Quite a lot on the go tonight Hoff! My main plays are J.Miller and Bocek. Bocek by decision and Miller by decision would set me up nicely but as long as neither lose inside the distance I should be good. My favourite play is Alves/Howard FOTN at +750 which I believe is great value seeing as it is +350 to +600 range on most other sites and should be the favourite IMO. An early stoppage for McCorkle would also be a great bonus!


UFC 124 plays summary:


2.5 units on Bocek at Evens to win 2.5 units (plus stake);

2 units on Bocek/Hazelett to decision at +110 to win 2.2 units (plus stake);

2.5 units on Miller/Oliveira to decision at -137.5 to win 1.818 units (plus stake);

2 units on J.Miller at +105 to win 2.1 units (plus stake);

2 units on GSP by decision at +150 to win 3 units (plus stake);

0.166 units on Koscheck by TKO/KO at +900 to win 1.494 units (plus stake);

1 unit on Thiago Alves by decision at +225 to win 2.25 units (plus stake);

0.6 units on Stevenson by decision at +150 to win 0.9 units (plus stake);

0.2 units on Pierson at +275 to win 0.55 units (plus stake);

Parlay (Trebles from 4 folds): 1.2 units on Wilkinson, Stevenson, Thiago Alves, & GSP to win 2.439 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on J.Miller by decision & D.Miller by submission at +1000 to win 1 unit (plus stake);



0.1 units on Makdessi 'Quickest TKO/KO' at +1400 to win 1.4 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Audinwood 'Quickest Submission' at +1400 to win 1.4 units (plus stake);

0.2 units on McCorkle 'Quickest TKO/KO' at +900 to win 1.8 units (plus stake);

0.05 units on Stevenson 'Quickest TKO/KO at +2000 to win 1 unit (plus stake);

0.1 unit on Stevenson 'Quickest Submission' at +700 to win 0.7 units (plus stake);



0.563 units on Thiago Alves/Howard 'Fight of the Night' at +750 to win 4.223 units (plus stake);

0.09 units on Miller/Oliveira 'Fight of the Night' at +800 to win 0.72 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on GSP/Koscheck 'Fight of the Night' at +550 to win 0.55 units (plus stake);



0.2 units on McCorkle 'Submission of the Night' at +1600 to win 3.2 units (plus stake);

0.3 units on GSP 'Submission of the Night' at +700 to win 2.1 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Struve 'Submission of the Night' at +900 to win 0.9 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Dan Miller 'Submission of the Night' at +1200 to win 1.2 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Stevenson 'Submission of the Night' at +1600 to win 1.6 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Hazelett 'Submission of the Night' at +900 to win 0.9 units (plus stake);

0.2 units on Oliveira 'Submission of the Night' at +1100 to win 2.2 units (plus stake);

0.025 units on Natal 'Submission of the Night' at +2800 to win 0.7 units (plus stake);



0.2 units on McCorkle 'KO of the Night' at +1400 to win 2.8 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Thiago Alves 'KO of the Night' at +450 to win 0.45 units (plus stake);

0.05 units on Makdessi 'KO of the Night' at +2200 to win 1.1 units (plus stake);

0.025 units on Struve 'KO of the Night' at +900 to win 0.225 units (plus stake);

0.02 units on Pierson 'KO of the Night' at +3000 to win 0.6 units (plus stake).

J.Miller's line went up to +158 suddenly so have grabbed an arb!:

20 units on Oliveira at -130 to win 15.385 units (plus stake);

15.3 units on J.Miller at +153 to win 23.474 units (plus stake).

Guaranteed profit of 3.409 units if Miller wins and overall stake of 35.3 units back if Oliveira wins.

[MUHerd37]

Anyone like Almeida? I really like him at -175.

[Vaughany]

Anyone like Almeida? I really like him at -175.

Most are on Grant on this forum...I'd of taken him if he was at +200 or better but no play for me either way. Do think it will go to decision tho and be very close.

[rocky mattioli]

v...i got dizzy trying to decipher all the props and straddles....


if you were just picking these fights straight up,who would you consider?....

thanks,pard...

[drukes1234]

I like Jim Miller as well but is anyone hearing the rumor that he's sick?

[NickBaragona]

I don't see any prop bets for the prelim fights on 5Dimes...are u guys using a different Sportsbook?

[Chairib]

Dude I was going to do proper write up but I sick as a dog. I think I got the swine aids.

Bocek by decision but watch out for mclovin's stand up striking.

Go ginger balls.

[phillybadboy]

gona nice fight boxing and mma

[BIGDAY]

Nice hit on Bocek to start your night in the right direction!

[Erock87]

Any place to watch these online?
ATDHE isn't working for me...

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

on at 10 pm do it now at adhd