Vaughany's MMA Picks...

[Vaughany]

Dammit man, you beat me to it. This is a terrific play, I think, and if I were you I'd bet more on it.

haha yeah I will be putting a bit more on it, but waiting for Skybet to release their prop bets on Thursday as they should have slightly better odds than paddy.

[brooks85]

thats the same prop im looking forward to taking, just waiting on 5d. I can get inside the distance at +334 which solid, also get 2 more rounds but I really want to see if 5d will open round props for this one, their betting menu has a new setup so im hoping they give more props for the undercard.

[brooks85]

wait nevermind, fight is not on the undercard anyways, so im definitely waiting for the round props.

[Vaughany]

Inside the distance at +334 is decent value for sure, he might not necessarily come out gassed in Rnd 2 and could finish Harris off then. I think it's much more likely to happen in first round if it's going to happen at all.

[Vaughany]

Additional UFC 123 Plays:

0.5 units on Foster/Brown to decision at +120 to win 0.6 units (plus stake);

0.5 units on Munoz/Simpson to decision at Evens to win 0.5 units (plus stake).


I'm expecting at least one of these two fights to go to decision so am expecting worst-case scenario of getting overall stake of 1 unit back. Will be adding Munoz by TKO/KO to a parlay, and possibly Foster by submission to an additional parlay as back-up options incase both fights don't go the full three rounds.

[lasker]

Munoz and Simpson are friends, and I've noticed that friends have a much higher likelihood of going to decision, but imo it's a risky bet. Simpson brings a very fast pace and has only been to decision once (in a fight that was very close to getting stopped) and Munoz is heavy-handed and throws with bad intentions, and both of them have questionable striking defense. Personally I don't see this one going the distance, but I'm avoiding a bet on it either way.

[Vaughany]

Munoz and Simpson are friends, and I've noticed that friends have a much higher likelihood of going to decision, but imo it's a risky bet. Simpson brings a very fast pace and has only been to decision once (in a fight that was very close to getting stopped) and Munoz is heavy-handed and throws with bad intentions, and both of them have questionable striking defense. Personally I don't see this one going the distance, but I'm avoiding a bet on it either way.

ha yes I've just seen the video of Munoz talking about them being friends as well as they were both coaches during the PAC-10 tourny. I dont see Simpson stopping Munoz, I actually think Munoz's chin is underrated despite what many say and what the like of Mike Hammersmith says on mmamoneyline, however Simpson does have some power thats for sure. Munoz could definitely land a bomb on Simpson and end it, and I think that is more likely than Simpson knocking him out so I will be adding that to a parlay as back-up.

[lasker]

yeah I totally agree with you about Munoz' chin. Not only is his chin not suspect, he has taken some hard shots and recovered quickly and well. He has a great chin. I think your back-up will be good insurance; as you say, if anyone finishes this fight it's much more likely to be Munoz. After reading the article you posted earlier, though, I think there's more value in a straight bet on Munoz at -150.

Of course, my breakdown of the Okami-Munoz fight was pretty far off, so I'm hoping it won't happen again.

[Vaughany]

Additional UFC 123 Plays:

Parlay (Trebles from 4 folds): 0.2 units (0.05 per line) on Barboza, Hallman, Griffin & Sotiropolous to win 0.525 units (plus stake);

0.5 units on Hallman at +140 to win 0.7 units (plus stake).

[Vaughany]

Strikeforce Challengers 12 Plays:

0.2 units on Wilcox at +220 to win 0.440 units (plus stake);

0.2 units on St. Preux at +205 to win 0.410 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Carmouche at +105 to win 0.105 units (plus stake).

Parlay (Doubles from 3 folds): 0.09 units (0.03 per line) on Wilcox, Britt & Finney to win 0.232 units (plus stake).

[Vaughany]

More UFC 123 Plays:

3 units on Machida by decision at Evens to win 3 units (plus stake);

0.430 units on Rampage Jackson getting KO of the Night at +700 to win 3.01 units (plus stake);

2 units on Penn/Hughes to go to decision at -150 to win 1.333 units (plus stake);

0.2 units on Davis to get Submission of the Night at +800 to win 1.6 units (plus stake);

0.050 units on O'Brien to get Submission of the Night at +1800 to win 0.9 units (plus stake);

0.525 units on Sotiropolous/Lauzon being Fight of the Night at +500 to win 2.625 units (plus stake);

0.25 units on Foster/Brown being Fight of the Night at +800 to win 2 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Munoz/Simpson being Fight of the Night at +800 to win 0.848 units (plus stake);

0.05 units on Harris/Falcao being Fight of the Night at +800 to win 0.4 units (plus stake);

0.025 units on Boetsch getting KO of the Night at +2500 to win 0.625 units (plus stake);

0.5 units on Foster/Brown to go over 2.5 rounds at +171 to win 0.855 units (plus stake);

0.5 units on Munoz/Simpson to go over 2.5 rounds at +110 to win 0.55 units (plus stake).

[Eccocide]

Man you are geting some ridiculous odds on those FOTN bets! Lauzon/Sotir +290, Brown/Foster +350 and Munoz/Simpson +700 at 5dimes

[Vaughany]

Man you are geting some ridiculous odds on those FOTN bets! Lauzon/Sotir +290, Brown/Foster +350 and Munoz/Simpson +700 at 5dimes

ha yeah a mixture of paddy and skybet, that's why I got a bit carried away and played quite a few! Hopefully the two main fights will be good and exciting but not quite as entertaining as Foster/Brown or GSot/Lauzon!

[shroomysoup]

I like the Machida by decision bet. It is +150 at Bookmaker.

[Poppa Catfish]

with you on Machida by decision, and I have Munoz and Simpson going 2 full rounds at even

[cky312]

I have a similar insurance play in Rampage KO/TKO at +350 on top of the Machida by decision at +155 play as well. Man those are some juicy odds with the euro bookies.

[Vaughany]

Strikeforce Challengers 12 Plays:

0.2 units on Wilcox at +220 to win 0.440 units (plus stake);

0.2 units on St. Preux at +205 to win 0.410 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Carmouche at +105 to win 0.105 units (plus stake).

Parlay (Doubles from 3 folds): 0.09 units (0.03 per line) on Wilcox, Britt & Finney to win 0.232 units (plus stake).

All three underdogs got the wins last night! Was confident at least two of the three would win but didn't expect all of them to pull through! Should of put more on in hindsight and probably would of if UFC123 wasnt happening tonight. There are always a few upsets at these small Strikeforce events and there was no way that Britt or Ribeiro should of been a -250 favourites.

Total stake for Strikeforce Challengers 12: 0.59 units
Total returns: 1.455 units
Total profit: +0.865 units

[Vaughany]

UFC 123 Plays Summary:

3 units on Machida by decision at Evens to win 3 units (plus stake);

0.430 units on Rampage Jackson getting KO of the Night at +700 to win 3.01 units (plus stake);

2 units on Penn/Hughes to go to decision at -150 to win 1.333 units (plus stake);

0.050 units on O'Brien to get Submission of the Night at +1800 to win 0.9 units (plus stake);

0.25 units on Foster/Brown being Fight of the Night at +800 to win 2 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Munoz/Simpson being Fight of the Night at +800 to win 0.848 units (plus stake);

0.05 units on Harris/Falcao being Fight of the Night at +800 to win 0.4 units (plus stake);

0.025 units on Boetsch getting KO of the Night at +2500 to win 0.625 units (plus stake);

0.5 units on Foster/Brown to go over 2.5 rounds at +171 to win 0.855 units (plus stake);

0.5 units on Munoz/Simpson to go over 2.5 rounds at +110 to win 0.55 units (plus stake);

Parlay (Trebles from 4 folds): 0.2 units (0.05 per line) on Barboza, Hallman, Griffin & Sotiropolous to win 0.525 units (plus stake);

0.5 units on Hallman at +140 to win 0.7 units (plus stake);

0.5 units on Foster/Brown to decision at +120 to win 0.6 units (plus stake);

0.5 units on Munoz/Simpson to decision at Evens to win 0.5 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Maiquel Falcao to win in Round 1 at +650 and 0.1 units at +900 to win 1.55 units (plus stake);

Parlay: 0.2 units on Harris, Davis by decision, Penn, Machida, & St. Pierre at +750 to win 1.59 units (plus stake);

0.2 units on Lauzon to win by TKO/KO at +1200 to win 2.4 units (plus stake);

0.6 units on Lauzon by decision at +350 to win 2.1 units (plus stake);

0.525 units on Sotiropolous/Lauzon being Fight of the Night at +500 to win 2.625 units (plus stake);

2 units on Sotiropolous to win by decision at +125 to win 2.5 units (plus stake);

0.5 units on Davis to get Submission of the Night at +800 to win 4 units (plus stake);

0.5 units on Davis by decision at +137.5 to win 0.688 units (plus stake);

Parlay (Distance Special): 0.1 units on Sotiropolous, BJ Penn, & Machida all to win by decision at +1400 to win 1.4 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Foster by submission at +650 to win 0.65 units (plus stake);

0.46 units on Sotiropolous at -200 to win 0.23 units (plus stake).

[sundin4prez]

lovin the machida by dec. play

[ddream1]

gl sir!!

[Vaughany]

lovin the machida by dec. play

gl sir!!

Cheers guys, BOL to yourselves and everybody else!

[lasker]

GL Vaughany

[Chairib]

I think Sotiropoulos by decision is the play. Sotiropoulos' fundamentals are very strong so that dude is all about maintaining position in match. One thing I've noticed is how tight his grappling is and his top game is just smothering. He stays very close to his opponent and is very aggressive with his guard passing.

Two things that pose an issue:

1) He's a position hog so it's all about scoring points with him, so he'll choose to go for full mount or maintain side control while passing up submissions. It's a low risk strategy to grind out a win but it does make you very predictable. Furthermore, that type of fighting may get you points but it doesn't necessarily punish your opponent that bad, so there's always a chance that the other guy could pull off TKO/KO in the third and final round.

2) His takedown defense is kind of questionable at times and I've seen him just give an opponent the takedown. Now maybe that's part of his strategy because his guardwork is so strong. He doesn't look for subs but uses the omoplata from the rubber guard to sweep his opponent.

Creepy Joe can get a win by an early tko/ko possibly as he does have some power in his hands or maybe by ankle hook. Joe is very aggressive with his subs and will give up position to go for one. Often times he tends to rush and doesn't secure the hold properly. Joe will probably come out strong in the first and probably win it but the longer the fight goes on the more I see it going George's way.

[phillybadboy]

good luck bro

[Boddhissatva]

Thanks Vaug for talking me out of the Munoz/Simpson fight.

[rocky mattioli]

simpson is a tough 2 round fighter...3`s a bit much for him...

[Poppa Catfish]

Aussie Aussie Aussie!

[phillybadboy]

hit taht martinez williams UNDER rd10.5 rounds 1x +185

[Vaughany]

UFC 123 Plays Review:

UFC 123 Plays Summary:

3 units on Machida by decision at Evens to win 3 units (plus stake);

0.430 units on Rampage Jackson getting KO of the Night at +700 to win 3.01 units (plus stake);

2 units on Penn/Hughes to go to decision at -150 to win 1.333 units (plus stake);

0.050 units on O'Brien to get Submission of the Night at +1800 to win 0.9 units (plus stake);

0.25 units on Foster/Brown being Fight of the Night at +800 to win 2 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Munoz/Simpson being Fight of the Night at +800 to win 0.848 units (plus stake);

0.05 units on Harris/Falcao being Fight of the Night at +800 to win 0.4 units (plus stake);

0.025 units on Boetsch getting KO of the Night at +2500 to win 0.625 units (plus stake);

0.5 units on Foster/Brown to go over 2.5 rounds at +171 to win 0.855 units (plus stake);

0.5 units on Munoz/Simpson to go over 2.5 rounds at +110 to win 0.55 units (plus stake);

Parlay (Trebles from 4 folds): 0.2 units (0.05 per line) on Barboza, Hallman, Griffin & Sotiropolous to win 0.525 units (plus stake);

0.5 units on Hallman at +140 to win 0.7 units (plus stake);

0.5 units on Foster/Brown to decision at +120 to win 0.6 units (plus stake);

0.5 units on Munoz/Simpson to decision at Evens to win 0.5 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Maiquel Falcao to win in Round 1 at +650 and 0.1 units at +900 to win 1.55 units (plus stake);

Parlay: 0.2 units on Harris, Davis by decision, Penn, Machida, & St. Pierre at +750 to win 1.59 units (plus stake);

0.2 units on Lauzon to win by TKO/KO at +1200 to win 2.4 units (plus stake);

0.6 units on Lauzon by decision at +350 to win 2.1 units (plus stake);

0.525 units on Sotiropolous/Lauzon being Fight of the Night at +500 to win 2.625 units (plus stake);

2 units on Sotiropolous to win by decision at +125 to win 2.5 units (plus stake);

0.5 units on Davis to get Submission of the Night at +800 to win 4 units (plus stake);

0.5 units on Davis by decision at +137.5 to win 0.688 units (plus stake);

Parlay (Distance Special): 0.1 units on Sotiropolous, BJ Penn, & Machida all to win by decision at +1400 to win 1.4 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Foster by submission at +650 to win 0.65 units (plus stake);

0.46 units on Sotiropolous at -200 to win 0.23 units (plus stake).

Also had this pending parlay featuring Sotiropolous (the 0.6 units stake for this parlay went against my overall stake for the WEC 52 event so the 1.912 units profit will go against my UFC123 results):

Parlay (3 from 4 folds): 0.6 units on Faber, Mendes, Jabouin, & Sotiropolous(UFC 123) to win 1.912 units (plus stake).

UFC 123 Results:

Total stake: 13.43 units
Total return: 15.039 units
Profit: +1.609 units

[brooks85]

nice hit on davis's sotn, glad someone cashed on that. Its just unreal how he manhandles his opponents.

[Vaughany]

nice hit on davis's sotn, glad someone cashed on that. Its just unreal how he manhandles his opponents.

Cheers bro, the Davis SOTN and GSot/Lauzon FOTN saved the night after losing about 25% of my overall stake on the Machida by dec / Rampage KO of the Night straddle. Unfortunately I fell for the Lauzon hype and bought back on him with the Lauzon by decision and Lauzon by TKO/KO bets so didnt make as much as I could of from my Sotiropolous plays...should of gone with my initial inclination that Sot would dominate and that Lauzon's dominant win over Ruediger wasnt anything to get hyped up about. But then Lauzon did gas out which I never expected to happen (I dont remember him ever having cardio issues?) so who knows what would of happened! Also should have had more faith in Hallman, especially at the +130 odds.

[phillybadboy]

looks like you had a positive night as weell, i didn't even see the martinez knockout, i was watching the nets game, tuned back and saw williams on the ground, easy winner

[Vaughany]

I think Sotiropoulos by decision is the play. Sotiropoulos' fundamentals are very strong so that dude is all about maintaining position in match. One thing I've noticed is how tight his grappling is and his top game is just smothering. He stays very close to his opponent and is very aggressive with his guard passing.

Two things that pose an issue:

1) He's a position hog so it's all about scoring points with him, so he'll choose to go for full mount or maintain side control while passing up submissions. It's a low risk strategy to grind out a win but it does make you very predictable. Furthermore, that type of fighting may get you points but it doesn't necessarily punish your opponent that bad, so there's always a chance that the other guy could pull off TKO/KO in the third and final round.

2) His takedown defense is kind of questionable at times and I've seen him just give an opponent the takedown. Now maybe that's part of his strategy because his guardwork is so strong. He doesn't look for subs but uses the omoplata from the rubber guard to sweep his opponent.

Creepy Joe can get a win by an early tko/ko possibly as he does have some power in his hands or maybe by ankle hook. Joe is very aggressive with his subs and will give up position to go for one. Often times he tends to rush and doesn't secure the hold properly. Joe will probably come out strong in the first and probably win it but the longer the fight goes on the more I see it going George's way.

Cheers for that man, I thought Sot by decision was the best bet as well and dont regret doing it, could never of known that Lauzon would gas like that as he hasnt had issues with his cardio before (as far as I'm aware). I think George took more risks than he has in previous fights, I believe there were two times were he tried to latch on to an armbar but Lauzon got out and ended up on top. U wer right tho about Joe coming out strong in the first and the fight favouring GSot the longer it went on, shame it just didnt go on for longer and go to decision, I really though Lauzon would be tough and scrappy enough to hold out but I guess I bought in the post-Ruediger hype! Ken Flo managed to finish him so its not really surprising in hindsight that GSot submitted him! Would be awesome if u could do a breakdown of Bocek and Hazelett at some point as well, that's an intriguing fight and Im wanting to go big on Bocek after that performance against Jim Miller. Judging from other forums and online prediction sites such as "Tapology.com" people the slight majority seem to be going with Hazelett, but I guess less hardcore fans know who Bocek is whilst the casual fan knows Hazelett because of his unusual style and crazy submission highlight-reel as well as the fights against Daley (which was co-main event) and Kosheck. Really hoping this helps keep Boceks line down to between -110 and -130.

[Vaughany]

Thanks Vaug for talking me out of the Munoz/Simpson fight.

ha no worries dude! I'll be looking out for any interviews or statements that Simpson puts out in the next couple of weeks to see if he makes any references to the staph problem and whether he mentions it as being a hindrance to his build up for that fight. More significantly, the main reasons I didnt just bet on Simpson by decision in the end were because a) dodgy judging decisions (as we saw last night in the Griffin fight); and b) because people were being overly-critical of Munoz and I realised that I had absorbed some of that unfair judgement in to my initial views on how the fight would play out. When I assessed in more detail I realised that Munoz doesnt have a weak chin like I'd read on so many ridiculous threads on sherdog and he doesnt have poor cardio which I also had read about, but in fact his cardio is rather good. I had watched some footage of him sparring with Babalu and of his conditioning training and could clearly see that he has no issues with cardio. In the past, his slowing down could probly be attributed to his constant telegraphed takedown attempts and untechnical overhand rights which he throws with a lot of energy and reckless abandon. Last night he didnt do these as much, although some of his shots were still very predictable and technically mediocre.

[Vaughany]

3 Month Review:

Since Bellator 26 (August 26th) I have had the following results:

Bellator 26: +0.45 units
UFC 118: +6.11 units
MFC Retribution: -1.6 units
UFC Fight Night 22: +5.55 units
UFC 119: +1.5 units
WEC 51: +1.07 units
Cage Warriors 38: +11.0 units
Strikeforce Diaz vs Noons 2: +2.417 units
UFC 120: -0.589 units
UFC 121: +9.011 units
WEC 52: -1.274 units
UFC 122: +17.355 units
Strikeforce Challengers 12: +0.865 units
UFC 123: +1.609 units

Total Profit since August 26th (3 month period): +53.474 units