Vaughany's MMA Picks...

[Vaughany]

Mark "The Machine" Hominick -250

Miguel Angel Torres -600


Jamie "C-4" Varner -145
.

Jose "Junior" Aldo -650


what do you think?

its a parlay btw.

Looks like u got some terrible odds for Torres and Hominick! Valencia could outwrestle Torres to a decision and mess it up but otherwise all good!

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

parleyed all
aldo
varner
torres
3x

[Vaughany]

WEC 51 Plays:

5 units on Hominick at -187 to win 2.67 units (plus stake);

Very rarely make such a big play on one fight but couldn't resist as I'm a massive fan of Hominick's technical style and am over 75% confident that he'll win. Still gutted to have missed the opening line of -120 on Pinnacle as I hadn't set up my account in time Line has gone all way down to -205 now on Pinnacle so have ended up taking him at -187 on Bet365! Will be in complete shock if Hominick loses this one, I personally feel Garcia is overrated and is pushed a lot by WEC as an 'elite fighter' in the same vein as Cerrone is, even though I dont think they'll ever be ''Champion'' worthy. Obviously anything can happen, one of Garcia's wild haymakers could catch Hominick but even then Hominick has a great chin as he proved against Jabouin, is good off his back and has great sweeps. Expecting a decision win for Hominick.

Hominick gets the win as expected but split-decision was bullshit! Yet another retarded judge who thought that Bad Boy won a round . Had me worried for a second tht it was gonna be another favourable split-win for Garcia! It was a boxing masterclass from Hominick, picked Garcia apart exactly how I expected. Don't think he delivered one leg kick in the whole 15 minutes and only threw one of his trademark liver shots. Would love to see him against Aldo in the future, I imagine he'll have to face the winner of Vasquez/Mendes first tho. Anyway, 9.57 units returned so far so guaranteed a profitable night with a minimum of 1.07 units profit as total stake for event is 8.5 units. If Varner wins my profit will be 4.38 units (total return of 12.88 units inc. stakes). WAR VARNER!

[Vaughany]

WOW Varner is officially a bitch! Looked like he was more interested in making Cerrone be his friend than trying to win the fight...not one takedown attempt! Anyway + 1.07 units for the night.

[snake11eyes]

I told you Vaughany that Varner was a biotch and Cerrone would tool him. I won my parlay, I let Lytle ride so I risked 450 to win 300 on Varner because you liked Varner so much. So basically you cost me 450. lol. Oh well still cashed it for a profit of +1200.

[phillybadboy]

looks like a positive night for evryone

[Vaughany]

I told you Vaughany that Varner was a biotch and Cerrone would tool him. I won my parlay, I let Lytle ride so I risked 450 to win 300 on Varner because you liked Varner so much. So basically you cost me 450. lol. Oh well still cashed it for a profit of +1200.

Damn, my bad! Profit of +1200 is still pretty good tho! Varner jus didnt show up mentally, he still is a better fighter IMO, dude jus has serious issues!

[The HOFF]

Varner jus didnt show up mentally, he still is a better fighter IMO, dude jus has serious issues!

I don't know about that anymore. Looks like Cerrone has really improved the wrestling/takedown defense and even improved his excellent striking. Cerrone looked like a completely different fighter in there.

[Vaughany]

Cage Warriors 38 and Bellator 33 & 35 Parlay:

0.1 units on Hecht, Veach, Konrad & Alvarez to win 0.345 units (plus stake).

[snake11eyes]

Damn, my bad! Profit of +1200 is still pretty good tho! Varner jus didnt show up mentally, he still is a better fighter IMO, dude jus has serious issues!

No worries bro i was just messin with ya. In the end it's my decision and I chose to hedge. I probably would have let it ride, but I saw the other parlay so to much was riding on it. Now I have to hedge Lesnar, but I really like him against Velaquez.

[Vaughany]

No worries bro i was just messin with ya. In the end it's my decision and I chose to hedge. I probably would have let it ride, but I saw the other parlay so to much was riding on it. Now I have to hedge Lesnar, but I really like him against Velaquez.

ha yee I'm going back and forth on this Lesnar fight, mainly because I'm a big fan of Cain and dont really like Lesnar! But when looking objectively, I'm leaning on Lesnar at -150 to -170 range...obviously Cain is the better technical striker but Lesnar is going to have like 40lbs size advantage isn't he? Cain is going to be the smallest fighter that Lesnar has faced yet and he is a better wrestler than Cain (Cain never got to Div 1 level as far as I know). Carwin has a lot more power yet couldnt finish Lesnar so I dont see how Cain can. Only way I see Cain winning is by a decision but then that would mean that he'd of kept the fight standing and outstruck Lesnar for five rounds...I dont see that happening as Lesnar will surely be able to get him down and win rounds that way (as we all know judges penchant for takedowns!). If Lesnar's line drops to -150 on pinnacle I may have to put a couple of units on him or put him in a parlay of my own, perhaps with Shields and Hamill.

[Shagdogy]

Vaughany... Cain wrestled D1 at Arizona State with Bader, Dollaway, and Aaron Simpson. He definitely knows how to wrestle. His biggest advantage in this fight, however, will be his cardio and the fact that he throws bombs. We know that Lesnar doesn't like getting hit in the face, and if Carwin can land one of his bigger, slower bombs on the feet, Cain's quick hands should be able to find their way. Granted, Lesnar's size will come in to play if he can hold Cain down, but I'm seeing Cain's quickness, cardio, and solid enough wrestling giving Lesnar a bit of trouble. Lots of scrambling in this fight IMO. If Cain can drag this fight out, he should be able to get more and more comfortable with his range on the feet as Lesnar slows. I know Lesnar's cardio appears very good, but Cain's gas tank is incredible, and he will undoubtedly gain more and more of a speed advantage as the fight goes on.

[Fiasco01]

Any thoughts on the length of Brock/Cain's fight?

[snake11eyes]

Vaughany... Cain wrestled D1 at Arizona State with Bader, Dollaway, and Aaron Simpson. He definitely knows how to wrestle. His biggest advantage in this fight, however, will be his cardio and the fact that he throws bombs. We know that Lesnar doesn't like getting hit in the face, and if Carwin can land one of his bigger, slower bombs on the feet, Cain's quick hands should be able to find their way. Granted, Lesnar's size will come in to play if he can hold Cain down, but I'm seeing Cain's quickness, cardio, and solid enough wrestling giving Lesnar a bit of trouble. Lots of scrambling in this fight IMO. If Cain can drag this fight out, he should be able to get more and more comfortable with his range on the feet as Lesnar slows. I know Lesnar's cardio appears very good, but Cain's gas tank is incredible, and he will undoubtedly gain more and more of a speed advantage as the fight goes on.

Vaughany is right Lesnar will have close to a 50 pound advantage fight night. Are you saying it's possible for Cain to win a decision because i have to agree with Vaughany that's not going to happen. Lesnar will be able to control him for 5 rounds if needed, but I don't think Cain can withstand Brock's ground and pound that long. Cain's only chance is to stop Lesnar.

[Shagdogy]

Are you saying it's possible for Cain to win a decision because i have to agree with Vaughany that's not going to happen. Lesnar will be able to control him for 5 rounds if needed, but I don't think Cain can withstand Brock's ground and pound that long. Cain's only chance is to stop Lesnar.

I'm not saying it will go to a decision, but I'm saying that with his quickness, footwork, and solid boxing, Cain has a chance of negating Lesnar's wrestling in a way that nobody has done before. Carwin is a power-throwing puncher who does great work in the clinch with dirty boxing, and that meant that Brock was always going to have an opportunity to close the distance in that fight. Cain, on the other hand, has more technical and crisp boxing. If he can land quick shots on Lesnar and find his range early, then he will force Lesnar to shoot from further out. Cain's wrestling is very good (not as good as Brock's obviously), and if he can force his opponent to telegraph his shots, Cain will be able to stuff him most of the time, even if it is Brock. If the fight plays out this way, then Cain will have an OPPORTUNITY to win by TKO. Do I believe that he will? Not necessarily, but I believe he's got the best shot of doing it yet.

I like Brock at -150 to -170 like Vaughany and I agree, a decision is unlikely but not impossible (see Heath Herring).

[snake11eyes]

I'm not saying it will go to a decision, but I'm saying that with his quickness, footwork, and solid boxing, Cain has a chance of negating Lesnar's wrestling in a way that nobody has done before. Carwin is a power-throwing puncher who does great work in the clinch with dirty boxing, and that meant that Brock was always going to have an opportunity to close the distance in that fight. Cain, on the other hand, has more technical and crisp boxing. If he can land quick shots on Lesnar and find his range early, then he will force Lesnar to shoot from further out. Cain's wrestling is very good (not as good as Brock's obviously), and if he can force his opponent to telegraph his shots, Cain will be able to stuff him most of the time, even if it is Brock. If the fight plays out this way, then Cain will have an OPPORTUNITY to win by TKO. Do I believe that he will? Not necessarily, but I believe he's got the best shot of doing it yet.

I like Brock at -150 to -170 like Vaughany and I agree, a decision is unlikely but not impossible (see Heath Herring).

My fault shagdogy I thought it was you who said Cain's only chance to win is by decision, but I just reread a couple posts. It was Vaughany who said that. So my question is to him. You think Cain has a better chance to win a 5 round decision then stopping Brock inside the distance.

[Vaughany]

My fault shagdogy I thought it was you who said Cain's only chance to win is by decision, but I just reread a couple posts. It was Vaughany who said that. So my question is to him. You think Cain has a better chance to win a 5 round decision then stopping Brock inside the distance.

Well thats wer I keep going back and forth...judging from the Cain/Kongo fight and Lesnar/Carwin fight two things are discernible - 1) that Cain doesnt have serious knockout power (all though I laugh at those on sherdog who create threads saying that Velasquez has 'pillow fists' which he clearly doesnt, but still not one punch KO power) and 2) That Lesnar has a good chin to back up his who size and therfore is very hard to finish. This is the only reasoning behind me questioning whether Cain can TKO/KO Lesnar. For Cain to win by decision he'd have to avoid getting taken down which he may do a couple of times but the combination of Lesnar's size advantage and the fact that he is a better wrestler makes me hesitant to count on Cain picking Lesnar apart on the feet and gettin a decision that way. I think the fight going to decision could be a good bet, or at least over 3.5 rounds or something as the odds could be favourable.

[Vaughany]

[Vaughany]

Cage Warriors 38 and Bellator 33 & 35 Parlay:

0.1 units on Hecht, Veach, Konrad & Alvarez to win 0.345 units (plus stake).

Posted this parlay that I did that involved Hecht and Veach who were fighting in the Cage Warriors 38 promotion last week and lost 0.1 units (as Hecht lost), however, I had also made two big bets just before the main card fights started and forgot to post them on here. I had 5 units on Jason Young at 11/8 and 5 units on Che Mills at 5/6. Both ended up winning so made just over 11 units profit!

Quick screen-dump of my betting slip can be seen through the link below...

[snake11eyes]

Posted this parlay that I did that involved Hecht and Veach who were fighting in the Cage Warriors 38 promotion last week and lost 0.1 units (as Hecht lost), however, I had also made two big bets just before the main card fights started and forgot to post them on here. I had 5 units on Jason Young at 11/8 and 5 units on Che Mills at 5/6. Both ended up winning so made just over 11 units profit!

Quick screen-dump of my betting slip can be seen through the link below...

Nice job on Young and Mills, but you dont have to post screen shots to prove it. There will always be people who don't believe you. Who cares about them. Now If you're doing it every week that's a different story.

[jin2daj]

sweet parlay with veach

[Vaughany]

Nice job on Young and Mills, but you dont have to post screen shots to prove it. There will always be people who don't believe you. Who cares about them. Now If you're doing it every week that's a different story.

ha yeah cheers. I only did it for this one because I didnt post the plays before the results of the fights.

[zeroprogress2]

I like brock up to about -180 or so. I think it's his fight to lose.

[snake11eyes]

What do you think of this parlay. Noons +210, Huerta +220, Lesnar -150, Hamill, -160, Hughes +115, Edgar +120. Risking 20 pays 2520.

[Vaughany]

What do you think of this parlay. Noons +210, Huerta +220, Lesnar -150, Hamill, -160, Hughes +115, Edgar +120. Risking 20 pays 2520.

Clearly has a great payout and if uve got plenty of money thn its worth a 20! But its highly unlikely that all of those dogs will win - Diaz, Alvarez or Maynard would probly ruin it! Can you not do a 4 out of 6 folds bet? - With that amount of dogs (who defo each have a chance to win) the payout could still be decent even if only 4 of the 6 fighters u have picked win, although obviously the potential maximum payout would be less but your much more likely to get something back. Im gonna have a look at what the payout would be on paddypower in a bit (the site is down at the moment for some reason).

[Vaughany]

Strikeforce: Diaz vs Noons II Plays:

1 unit on Diaz/Noons over 2.5 units at -116 to win 0.862 units, and 1 unit at -122 to win 0.820 units (plus stake);

1 unit on Thomson at -136 to win 0.735 units (plus stake).

Total risk: 3 units
Total potential profit: 2.417 units

[snake11eyes]

Clearly has a great payout and if uve got plenty of money thn its worth a 20! But its highly unlikely that all of those dogs will win - Diaz, Alvarez or Maynard would probly ruin it! Can you not do a 4 out of 6 folds bet? - With that amount of dogs (who defo each have a chance to win) the payout could still be decent even if only 4 of the 6 fighters u have picked win, although obviously the potential maximum payout would be less but your much more likely to get something back. Im gonna have a look at what the payout would be on paddypower in a bit (the site is down at the moment for some reason).

I always see you place those kind of bets, but I don't have that option at any of the books I use. That must be specific to paddypower.

[lasker]

Likewise. I would really love to have such an option.

[Eccocide]

Im on the same 2 plays tonight. GL!

[Vaughany]

Strikeforce: Diaz vs Noons II Plays:

1 unit on Diaz/Noons over 2.5 rounds at -116 to win 0.862 units, and 1 unit at -122 to win 0.820 units (plus stake);

1 unit on Thomson at -136 to win 0.735 units (plus stake).

Total risk: 3 units
Total potential profit: 2.417 units

2 out of 2 for the night.... +2.417 units.

[Shagdogy]

Anyone catch the end of the Diaz/Noons fight where they put up the CompuScore stats? Frank Shamrock, as though he can't read at all, exclaims, "And look at those numbers for Diaz!!" Meanwhile, the chart clearly shows Noons throwing and landing more strikes from all positions except the ground, which was not a factor in the fight at all.

I'm not saying that Noons deserved to win necessarily, but I AM saying that strikeforce's announcing crew is just freaking retarded.

[Vaughany]

Anyone catch the end of the Diaz/Noons fight where they put up the CompuScore stats? Frank Shamrock, as though he can't read at all, exclaims, "And look at those numbers for Diaz!!" Meanwhile, the chart clearly shows Noons throwing and landing more strikes from all positions except the ground, which was not a factor in the fight at all.

I'm not saying that Noons deserved to win necessarily, but I AM saying that strikeforce's announcing crew is just freaking retarded.

Yee I agree, they are retarded - especially Gus Johnson who I just cant stand! Just makes you appreciate Goldy and Rogan tho that bit much more! I think one could argue that those stats (Noons had over 50% in everything standing while Diaz had 40-43% range) and the fact that Noons didn't seem to have a mark on him whilst Diaz was cut badly again and covered in blood, suggests that the fight was a lot closer than judges made it out to be.

[Eccocide]

Anyone catch the end of the Diaz/Noons fight where they put up the CompuScore stats? Frank Shamrock, as though he can't read at all, exclaims, "And look at those numbers for Diaz!!" Meanwhile, the chart clearly shows Noons throwing and landing more strikes from all positions except the ground, which was not a factor in the fight at all.

I'm not saying that Noons deserved to win necessarily, but I AM saying that strikeforce's announcing crew is just freaking retarded.

Problem is, those Compustrike stats were no way accurate. Noons threw 600 strikes??? Riggggght lol. Fightmetric put out their stats for the fight and seem much more in line with what I witnessed. They had Noons throwing 426 and landing 139. Diaz throwing 441 and landing 150. Diaz winning in significant strikes, head and leg, Noons winning only the body. They scored it 49-46 for Diaz as did I.

[Shagdogy]

Yeah... i agree with both you guys. I definitely think those stats are often inaccurate, and probably were in this case. The numbers they showed for Noons did NOT represent what the fight showed by watching it. I just thought it was funny how Shamrock came off like an idiot, yet again.

[Eccocide]

Yeah... i agree with both you guys. I definitely think those stats are often inaccurate, and probably were in this case. The numbers they showed for Noons did NOT represent what the fight showed by watching it. I just thought it was funny how Shamrock came off like an idiot, yet again.

Haha ya for sure. I find the SF commentating really annoying. It was a little better this time around without Gus Johnson but Mauro seems to be going REALLLLLY overboard with the dramatization of the fights lately.