those compustrikes comparisons and info like that, that you dig up is very helpful, appreciate it if you keep doing that
-
Comment -
UFC 118: Penn rumoured to have trained only three sessions a week
By Gareth A Davies Boxing and MMA Last updated: August 28th, 2010
7 Comments Comment on this article
The rumour mill has been in full swing at UFC 118 here in Boston this week. The soundings from some areas were that BJ Penn, attempting to regain his UFC lightweight title, had only been able to train three times a week.
Secondary rumours were that he was having difficulty cutting to 155lbs. In fairness, he looked solid at yesterday’s weigh-in. He had Frankie Edgar had a fine stare-down and were a little lost for words when Joe Rogan asked them a few questions after the face-off.
Gareth A Davies joins the ESPN MMA Live crew Jon Anik, Rashad Evans and Stefan Bonnar for the UFC 118 Weigh-in Special from the TG Arena, Boston Click here to watch the show.
It appears that Randy Couture even felt like a two hour workout last night, a sign, perhaps, that he is taking James Toney as an extended training session. Toney looked big at the weigh-in. Big and bulgey. Not good. His cardio will be brought into question within a couple of minutes in this fight, unless he gets the lucky strike.
There are also those pouring cold water on the notion that Toney had been grappling with Mo Lawal, and that it may have been a ruse. Indeed, Lawal, at one point, had said he had been choked out by Toney. We’ll get the form in a few hours.
Major news for the UK relating to the UFC is also forthcoming for this week sometime, I’m told. I have not been party to the details, but I understand it could be seismic.Comment -
That's a little scary for all the Penn backers. Having said that i still think he wins, but I'm glad I didn't bet him.Comment -
How different are these two bets:
1) Over 2,5 rounds
and
2) Fight to go 3 round distance
Odds on 2) were 10-15% better than 1) so I would assume a bet on 1) always wins when a bet on 2) wins... and in some other scenarios?
What are these scenarios - when does bet 1) is a winner but bet 2) is a loser?Comment -
Summary of last night's results (UFC 118 Plays):
2 units on Florian/Maynard going the distance to win 1.45 units (plus stake);
+ 1.45 units
Straddle 1 (of sorts): 1 unit on Couture winning in Rnd 1 to win 2 units (plus stake), and 0.3 units on Couture winning in Rnd 2 to win 1 unit (plus stake). Can only see Couture gettin a sub or TKO win either in 1st or 2nd round...would be MASSIVELY shocked if anything else occurs! + 2 units
Straddle 2: 0.5 units on Edgar by decision to win 2.250 units (plus stake); and 0.3 units on Penn by submission to win 0.6 units (plus stake); + 2.250 units
0.5 units on Florian and Pearson to win 1.1 units (plus stake);
- 0.5 units
0.1 units on Miranda winning by TKO/KO to win 0.4 units (plus stake); - 0.1 units
Parlay (Trebles from 5 to win): 0.5 units on Mir, Pearson, Miranda, Osipczak & Vega to win 3 units (plus stake) if all 5 win. (STILL PENDING)
Also have the following parlays that I did a while back:
0.31 units on Pearson, Florian and Diaz to win 0.75 units (plus stake); - 0.31 units
0.15 units on Warren (won), Ellenberger (won), Jones (won), Fitch (won), Penn, & Maynard. Need 4 out of 6 to at least win the stake back, and will win 1.23 units if Maynard and Penn both win; + 0.35 units
0.19 units on Wanderlei Silva (void), Stevenson (void), Howard (lost), Jones (won), Schaub (won), Cristiane Santos (won), & Edgar. Need 5 out of 7 to win something back; + 0.06 units
0.28 units (sixfolds from 8 to win) on: Lauzon, Maia, Pierce, Winner, Salter, BJ Penn, Pearson, & Doerksen - to win 8 units plus stake (if all 8 win). - 0.28 units
Parlay: 0.15 units on Alves (lost), Dos Santos (won), Bisping, Hamill, Lesnar, Florian (lost), Shields, Hathaway, & Varner (8 folds from 9) to win 3.25 units. - 0.15 units
Overall stake: 5.78 units (not including 0.5 units for pending parlay - Mir, Pearson, Vega, Osipzcak, Miranda).
Profit: + 6.11 units
Overall return (including stake): 9.95 units (not including 0.5 units for pending parlay).
Good night overall...biggest plays were Florian/Maynard prop and both straddles (Edgar by dec/BJ by sub; and Couture in Rnd 1/ Couture in Rnd 2) and they all worked out
. Won some units back from a couple of parlays as well, and still have parlay pending involving Mir and Pearson, tho Osipcak and Miranda losing tht one ruined that parlay from being a potential big winner. Very glad I resisted puttin single bets on Osipzcak, Winner and Miranda! So including the Bellator 26 winnings from the other night (3-0) + 0.45 units (plus stake of 0.4 units) I have made 6.56 units. 
Comment -
nice run vaughany, looks like Gray and Edgar got the job done for the both of us
Comment -
Nice night!! Wish I could say I also resisted on those stupid brits lol.Comment -
Yee I think the problem is that cocky fighters such as Winner and Osipzcak choose to ignore the consensus that UK fighters need to work on the takedown defence, as their over-confident in ther striking abilities and believe that they are good enough to hang with the mid-level dudes in UFC like Lentz and Soto because of tht. It's not until they get dominated by the likes of Soto and Lentz that they perhaps wake up and realise, although even then some of them will still use the whole "Im not interested in putting on a boring fight, I only want exciting fights" excuse/reasoning, which is what Paul Kelly has been banging on about since Volkmann dominated him. Won't be surprised if Winner comes out saying similar things, when what he (and the likes of Kelly) should actually be sayin is... "I didn't use my footwork enough, I should of circled more... not been so content to let him push me against the cage, etc.." This is why Hathaway and Pearson are my favourite English fighters, they realise the importance of not relying or being over-confident in their main skill set. For instance, Pearson has recently been training with Frankie Edgar and Ricardo Almeida over in New Joysey, working on his wrestling especially with Edgar and the Rutgers team.Comment -
I finally watched the Winner fight (wish I didnt because it was dreadful) and his TDD was very good! He defended like 95% of Lentz's 1000 TDs so I give him props for that. Lentz just pushed him up against the cage because he couldnt get the TD and hugged him. Never seen a guy do so little damage lol. I actually had it a draw with the middle round being a 10-10. I thought Winner clearly won the first. Not sure how judges scored it 30-27. Winner just needed to be more active in the clinch. As well, I put a some blame on Rosenthal. There were numerous times where he could have separated them cuz Lentz was CLEARLY stalling.Comment -
Yee I agree, Winner won the first round simply on the basis that he landed some punches while Lentz jus hugged. I scored 2nd round equal as well as nothing happened. Third round tho, I think Lentz did more than he did in the first two rounds, and more than Winner did in first round. Yep ur right Winner's takedown defence was good in that he didnt end up on his back that much (apart from final round). However, its all well and good stopping the takedown, but in the eyes of the judges they probly thought that Lentz still had octagon control as he was attempting the takedown and then pressuring Winner against the cage (even after failing with the takedowns). I didnt explain what I meant very well wen I was talkin bout UK guys takedown defence, but if Winner had used evasive footwork then not only would he have made it harder for Lentz to take him down, but also would of made it harder for Lentz to even grab hold of him and push him against the cage. I think footwork is a fundamental skill that a lot of UFC fighters aren't so proficient in. Although Winner is a very good striker with fast hands and power, his head movement and footwork aren't particularly good IMO, definitely not on the level of Frankie Edgar anyway who is testament to what high-level footwork and head movement can do for you!Comment -
Yup agree with everything you are saying. With all that said I think the UFC needs to do away or make an adjustment with the Octagon Control criteria. Its gotten to a point where wrestlers and grapplers dont even have to attempt to do anything to win a fight other than wall stall. IMO if you dont do anything with a strong position, you shouldnt be awarded anything. Takedowns are one thing, holding a guy against the cage wall for 5 mins is ridiculous! Oh well, maybe one day they will revise the stupid scoring system haha.Comment -
Good work Vaughany... another sign that I need to get out of BetUS and on 5dimes so I can hit up some props. Seems like you're one of the few that actually made out well last night. Even though a lot of the outcomes were surprises, you didn't lose on picking winners like the rest of us. Nice work.Comment -
Cheers dude, after gettin rather screwed by the King Mo and Lashley debacle last week, I'm trying to stick to a new 'policy' of only doing single bets on fighters that are -200 or better, and mostly concentrate on prop bets. I think in a lot of cases it's easier to predict how a fight will go rather than tryin to predict who will win the fight, and with paddypower can usually get good value on prop bets - like the Couture to win in Rnd 1 at +200 was ridiculasly good, and in hindsight I should of put a much bigger amount on it as it went down to -175 by fight night!Comment -
exactly wrestling is a good thing if you use how randy couture used it took the guy down and ground and pound moved to submission, but Lentz tried to go for the take down and failed so he held the guy against the cage for five 5 minutes straight, how do you get points fo that? if they all did that then mma would be very boring, clearly he was stallingComment -
NEW YORK LIBERTY +4
Comment -
yeah positve 118
Comment -
MFC Retribution plays:
0.5 units on Ryan Ford & Ross Pearson (double) to win 0.45 units (plus stake);
0.7 units on Tom 'Kong' Watson at +200 to win 1.4 units (plus stake).Comment -
I think Taylor's wrestling will be to much for Watson to handle, but at -300 no way I'm playing him.Comment -
UFC FIGHT NIGHT 22 PLAYS:
Straddle 1: 2 units on Palhares at +200 to win 4 units (plus stake); and 1.15 units on Marquardt by decision at +175 to win 2 units (plus stake)
Straddle 2: 2 units on Gleison Tibau at +137.5 to win 2.75 units (plus stake); and 2.5 units on Jim Miller by decision at +200 to win 5 units (plus stake)
Straddle 3: 1.7 units on Charles Oliveira by submission at +550 to win 9.35 units (plus stake); and 1 unit on Efrain Escudero by decision at +275 to win 2.75 units (plus stake)
Straddle 4: 1.5 units on Ross Pearson by TKO/KO at +300 to win 4.5 units (plus stake); and 0.9 units on Ross Pearson to win by decision at +175 to win 1.575 units.
Best case scenario for me would be Palhares winning, J.Miller winning by decision, Oliveira submission win, and Pearson winning by TKO/KO.
Comment -
How the hell did you get Pearson by TKO/KO at 3 to 1? 5dimes doesn't have that prop out yet, but I assume it will be +150 at most. Miller is fairly chiney for a LW and is outmatched standing big time without wrestling ability
I feel like there's value in betting against The Suck, David Heath, tonight. Anytime you get underdog odds for his opponent, worthwhileComment -
Im on tom watson and dwayne lewis.Comment -
Straddles look good, only straddle that worries me is the Efrain one, I could possibly see him overwhelming Olivera on the feet, could end by tko for EfrainComment -
Yep this is true and the reason why I put less than 2 units on Oliveira by sub even tho ther was great value at +550. My concern is that Efrain may want to keep this standing after what happened in the Dunham fight and after seeing how easily Oliveira subbed Elkins...the problem with this happening is a) like u said Efrain could end up TKO'ing Oliveira which would screw the straddle or b) for all we know Oliveira might be more elusive and may utilise jabs and leg kicks on the outside (he has strong leg kicks and he wont mind being taken down if Escudero catches a kick as he'll be full of confidence from his back after the Elkins win) and may end up winning a decision himself which would also screw the straddle! However, that KO of Cole Miller was the first TKO/KO of his career and IMO Cole Miller has terrible stand up, especially defensively, while Oliveira has never lost by TKO/KO or in any other way! In the Edu Pachu fight - his toughest test yet, he showed that he can take some heavy shots.Comment -
Additional parlays:
Trebles from 4: 0.4 units on Mckee, Ford, Klitschko by decision, TJ Grant to win 1.765 units (plus stake);
Fourfolds from 5: 0.3 units on Jardine, Saffiedine, J. Taylor, Shields, Mir to win 1.295 (plus stake).Comment -
bol sirComment
