Vaughany's MMA Picks...

[Vaughany]

Yee I got up early in morning to check the result and saw that Sherdog had given first two rounds to Massenzio and thought that was it! His extensive training with Roberto Traven must of paid off. Oliveira's BJJ was beautiful...poetry in motion.

Overall, from a total stake of 2.85 units ended up with 3.74 units which is okay...main aim was to just increase my set stake of 10 units for 117 so all good. Just waiting for the props to come out now on Paddypower and will jump on Fitch by decision, Almeida/Hughes to decision, Anjos to win and Guida by decision (straddle). Gotta do a bit more research but will most probably put 2 units on Morecraft, and already have 0.8 units on Story and Saunders double. Also have 2 parlays that I made a while ago and had forgot about until this morning!...

Parlay 1: 0.15 units on Warren (won), Ellenberger (won), Jones (won), Fitch, Penn, & Maynard. Need 4 out of 6 to at least win the stake back, and will win 1.23 units if Fitch, Maynard and Penn all win. Expecting at least 2 of those 3 to win so will definitely be winning something hopefully!

Parlay 2: 0.19 units on Wanderlei Silva (void), Stevenson (void), Howard (lost), Jones (won), Schaub (won), Cristiane Santos (won), Edgar. Need 5 from 7 to win something, but will obviously change as Silva and Stevenson pulled out. This parlay depends on Edgar beating BJ, but as I have BJ in the previous parlay either way im happy. Gonna be putting a unit or 2 on Edgar to win by decision so the first parlay will be a nice back up option in case he loses!

[Vaughany]

Prop bets have come out on PP, not what I had hoped for - think Paddypower might have got a bit tighter with their prop bets
Nonetheless, have added:

2.5 units on Fitch by decision at 7/4 (+175);

3 units on Hughes/Almeida to decision at Evens, & 0.1 units on Almeida to win in round 3 at +900 (as back up)!

Still have 6 units left to play with...will probably go mostly on Guida by decision/Anjos to win straddle, but Guida's odds are not as good as I had hoped at +175. And a small play on Morecraft.

[brooks85]

are you ******* kidding me +900

its +159 at 5d, thats ridiculous


what is hughes by 3 decision at?

[Eccocide]

are you ******* kidding me +900

its +159 at 5d, thats ridiculous


what is hughes by 3 decision at?

he said in round 3 not by decision lol. Wish 5dimes would put their round props out already.

[Vaughany]

are you ******* kidding me +900

its +159 at 5d, thats ridiculous


what is hughes by 3 decision at?

ha nooo I wish it was +900! Almeida by decision is +175 and Hughes by decision is +275. Considering Anderson by sub at +400

[Vaughany]

Straddle: 2.5 units on Dos Anjos at Evens, and 2.5 units on Guida by decision at +175. If Guida wins by decision then I'll make 1.875 units, if Dos Anjos wins I'll just have my overall stake of 5 units back. I can't see Guida winning by sub or TKO/KO...will be truly devastated if he does!

[Educ8d Degener8]

Straddle: 2.5 units on Dos Anjos at Evens, and 2.5 units on Guida by decision at +175. If Guida wins by decision then I'll make 1.875 units, if Dos Anjos wins I'll just have my overall stake of 5 units back. I can't see Guida winning by sub or TKO/KO...will be truly devastated if he does!

I've been contemplating this same play... GL

[Shagdogy]

Still pissed at the American sports books for being crap for prop bets in MMA. I love this play, but I can't get on it. Good luck with it.

[Vaughany]

Added:

0.5 units on Almeida & Morecraft (double) to win 1.5 units (plus stake).

[phillybadboy]

Vaughany i appreciate the info stats you dig up, very helpful thanks, good luck

[Vaughany]

Vaughany i appreciate the info stats you dig up, very helpful thanks, good luck

No worries, BOL to u 2 bro!

[Vaughany]

BOL tonight everybody! Summary of tonight's bets:

0.5 units on Almeida & Morecraft (double)

Straddle: 2.5 units on Dos Anjos at Evens, and 2.5 units on Guida by decision at +175

2.5 units on Fitch by decision at 7/4 (+175)

3 units on Hughes/Almeida to decision at Evens
0.1 units on Almeida to win in round 3 at +900

0.8 units on Saunders and Story (double)

Parlay 1: 0.15 units on Warren (won), Ellenberger (won), Jones (won), Fitch, Penn, & Maynard. Need 4 out of 6 to at least win the stake back, and will win 1.23 units if Fitch, Maynard and Penn all win.

Parlay 2: 0.19 units on Wanderlei Silva (void), Stevenson (void), Howard (lost), Jones (won), Schaub (won), Cristiane Santos (won), & Edgar. Need 5 out of 7 to win something back.

Parlay 3: 0.5 units on Dos Santos, Hazelett, Boetsch, Alves, & Struve (3 folds from 5) to win 1.75 units

Parlay 4: Alves, Dos Santos, Bisping, Hamill, Lesnar, Florian, Shields, Hathaway, & Varner (8 folds from 9) to win 3.25 units


1 Boxing play:

0.5 units on Travis Cloud by decision at 11/8

[Vaughany]

BOL tonight everybody! Summary of tonight's bets:

0.5 units on Almeida & Morecraft (double)

Straddle: 2.5 units on Dos Anjos at Evens, and 2.5 units on Guida by decision at +175

2.5 units on Fitch by decision at 7/4 (+175)

3 units on Hughes/Almeida to decision at Evens
0.1 units on Almeida to win in round 3 at +900

0.8 units on Saunders and Story (double)

Parlay 1: 0.15 units on Warren (won), Ellenberger (won), Jones (won), Fitch, Penn, & Maynard. Need 4 out of 6 to at least win the stake back, and will win 1.23 units if Fitch, Maynard and Penn all win.

Parlay 2: 0.19 units on Wanderlei Silva (void), Stevenson (void), Howard (lost), Jones (won), Schaub (won), Cristiane Santos (won), & Edgar. Need 5 out of 7 to win something back.

Parlay 3: 0.5 units on Dos Santos, Hazelett, Boetsch, Alves, & Struve (3 folds from 5) to win 1.75 units

Parlay 4: Alves, Dos Santos, Bisping, Hamill, Lesnar, Florian, Shields, Hathaway, & Varner (8 folds from 9) to win 3.25 units


1 Boxing play:

0.5 units on Travis Cloud by decision at 11/8

Pretty woeful night for me...12.4 units at risk (not including the 4 parlays that are still pending), ended up with 8.25 units (down 4.15 from original stake).

Do feel that I was EXTREMELY unlucky with the Guida/Dos Anjos straddle tho! Just my luck that Guida tagged Dos Anjos and broke his jaw! Soon as I saw Dos Anjos sayin something to his trainer at end of round 1 I knew he was hurt and consequently knew he was fuc**ed! Was hoping that he'd be able to survive the last 2 rounds and lose a decision which would of been perfect for me but didnt happen. Thought Almeida was gonna pull off an Edgar and jab his way to a 3 round decision but thn got tagged and offered that crank way too easily for a black-belt. Should of stuck too my guns with Story as well but my parlay with Saunders got ruined by Hallman as well! Morecraft should of finished it in first round... unbelievable comeback from Struve. Fortunately Fitch grinded out a decision and saved me a little but in hindsight should of defintely put a lot more on that and a lot less on Hughes/Almeida...Hughes has screwed me enough times, I should of realised!

Counting on next WEC event to get me back in to the black....like Jorgensen and Mendes a lot. Will also probly bet on Roller, Benavidez, Njokuani, Palaszewski, Castillo, Paixao, and Vasquez. Hopefully, get back to 10 units and then makes big plays on Pearson, Mir and Bader.

[Vaughany]

Will also be adding a Miller by decision and Gleison Tibau to win straddle.

[phillybadboy]

tough one bro, i still love your research info stats, helped me alot yesterday

[Vaughany]

tough one bro, i still love your research info stats, helped me alot yesterday

Yee, having a successful day so far with the soccer bets...up 2 units so slowly making up for the 4 units loss last night!

[Vaughany]

Boxing play:

After success with Travoris "Cumulus Nimbus" Cloud last night I've decided to add 0.5 units on Chad Dawson by decision at 4/5.

[Vaughany]

Will be laying down a couple of units on Varner to beat Cerrone (again). Varner has the wrestling and striking advantage in my opinion - and yes Cerrone has great Muay Thai and better leg kicks than Varner but the more leg kicks Cerrone throws the easier it will be for Varner to take him down. Check out Varner's boxing in this video of him sparring...toying with a pro-boxer: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jR0TK...layer_embedded

[snake11eyes]

I'm surprised everytime Glen Johnson fights. Dude is in his forties and fights these young undefeated kids and gives them hell for 12 rounds. As far as Cerrone-Varner II I'll have to watch that first fight again. I thought I remember Cerrone kicking his ass and Varner crying like a baby. Then they give the decision to Varner. It might not be as easy as you think.

[Vaughany]

I'm surprised everytime Glen Johnson fights. Dude is in his forties and fights these young undefeated kids and gives them hell for 12 rounds. As far as Cerrone-Varner II I'll have to watch that first fight again. I thought I remember Cerrone kicking his ass and Varner crying like a baby. Then they give the decision to Varner. It might not be as easy as you think.

hmmm Im not sure Cerrone was kicking his ass! Cerrone landed a few decent body strikes and a couple of punches, one takedown and one submission attempt at the end of round 2 but nothing significant. Varner on the other hand landed sumin like 7 out if 7 takedowns, numerous heavy overhand rights and hooks, a hard high left kick, and a guillotine choke attempt. And he'd broken his hand in the second round. Dont get me wrong, when I first watched tht fight I thought tht it was pretty even and also thought Varner was a whining douchebag for sayin he couldnt see! But after watchin the fight a couple more times and analysing it more deeply, its clear tht Varner was winning the fight and that he got caught with tht illegal knee. Here's the breakdown I did from when I watched the fight again the other day:


Round 1:
First round Varner tags Cerrone thn takes him down, Cerrone uses the rubber guard well but Varner picks him up and slamms him. Goes to the cage wer Cerrone has him in his rubber guard, Varner escapes and lands some brutal ground and pound. As Mir points out "Cerrone has one heck of a chin!" as he takes some hard bombs from Varner. Big welp noticeable on Cerrone's forehead. Cerrone redeems himself a bit by getting up and landing two knee strikes to Varner but neither hurt Varner significantly. Varner 10-9 at least

Round 2:
Cerrone land a leg kick to the sturdum but Varner counters it immediately and takes Cerrone down. Varner passes Cerrone's guard immediately and gets side contro however Cerrone quickly gets back full guard and then back to his feet. Cerrone throws some kicks tht Varner either dodges or blocks, Cerrone then starts gettin cocky, then another leg kick which Varner counters with single leg to double leg takedown. Varner lands 6 or 7 heavy shots. Cerrone does a great escape and back to their feet. Cerrone throws some combos that look nice but none land and Varner throws some heavy hooks and overhand rights tht dont land. 10 secs left in the round and Varner gets a semi-takedown/semi Cerrone pulling guard. Cerrone locks on a triangle with couple secs left. 10-9 Varner - based on three takedowns and heavy shots landed mid-way through round, despite late sub attempt from Cerrone.

Round 3:
More leg kicks from Cerrone, none of which are very effective, Varner tags Cerrone with 3 or 4 shots (2 of which are pretty big rushing into the cage) and then takes Cerrone down. Cerrone is now bleeding from his left eye as a result of previous shots. Varner locks in a guillotine choke (sub attempt) but Cerrone escapes and ends up on top. Varner gets up immediately with ease by wall-walking against the cage. Cerrone's face at this point is very busted up whilst Varner doesnt have a mark on him! Cerrone lands a jab to Varner's forehead but Varner counters with straigh right and straight left right on Cerrone's chin. Each land a couple of insignificant shots before Varner gets another easy takedown. Another 10-9 Varner at least

Round 4:
Start of round 4 and Varner lands an awesome left high leg kick to Cerrone after fainting with a combo. Some exchanges for a couple of minutes...Cerrone lands a couple of kicks to body, Varner lands one. Varner then takes Cerrone down again. Varner lands a couple of shots but Cerrone neutralises his attack well but doesnt attempt any submissions and eventually springs up. Varner quickly gets another takedown however. Another round to Varner for sure 10-9

Round 5:
Fighters begin round with a hug and Cerrone starts howling and wailing gettin hyped! Varner circles for a bit then shoots and gets yet another takedown. Cerrone is more aggressive off his back now, throws elbows and up kicks then flips back and gets back to his feet in impressive fashion. Interestlingly, Cerrone goes for the takedown, and probably due to Varner not expecting it and being tired, Cerrone ends up on top. This is wer the controversial incident occurs! Varner wall-walks again with ease and as he's gettin up Varner grabs hold of Cerrone's knee about to attempt a double leg, but Cerrone throws the knee and catches Varner. The replay from behind the fence clearly shows tht Cerrone catches Varner on the side of his right eye. Varner is either an amazing actor or genuinely upset at this point, constantly apologising and even shaking his head wen the belt was put around him.

Whether Varner bitches out or not at this point is irrelevant. He had won rounds 1, 2, 3 and 4 and was probly even in Round 5 up until the illegal knee. 2 Judges scored it 49-46 whilst one retarded judge scored it 48-47 to Cerrone, even Cerrone looked confused wen it was read out! Also worth mentioning tht Varner had broken his hand earlier in the fight, second or third round. Maybe, the hand was hurting him more than the knee did and used his initiative to find an early way out of the fight knowing that he was easily ahead on the scorecard. On the flipside, one may argue why would he want to seek away out of the fight wen he knew he was winning and only had a couple minutes left. Who knows! At the end of the day tho, Varner won every round of tht fight.
Everyone hates on Varner, but Cerrone is actually the one who says that he 'takes his hat off to the guy' and they act like best mates, then as soon as they leave the cage Cerrone starts bitching on Varner in interviews.

Additionally, although Frank Mir is one of my favourite fighters, he was very bias to Cerrone during his commentary, constantly going on about how crisp and accurate his striking is and how good he is off his back whilst rarely talking about Varner! He mentions Varner's ground and pound at times but always immediately goes back to praising Cerrone's defence! I think this may play a part in how people saw tht fight as it gives the feeling tht Cerrone was being more effective than he actually was.

Anyway, thts my two cents on the fight!

[snake11eyes]

Thanks Vaughany for the write up. Like I said I only saw the fight once a long time ago. I will have to watch it again, Mir could have definitely influenced me with his insight as I see him as a knowledgeable announcer. Dont get me wrong I like Varner as a fighter and think he has a great skill set, but he seems to complain in his fights too much. Also in his last fight Shalorus really put it to him. Varner for sure won the fight even though they called it a draw, but he lost that war. You obviously watch a lot of fights and know what you're talking about, but until I see that fight again Varner -200 seems a little steep for me.

[Vaughany]

Thanks Vaughany for the write up. Like I said I only saw the fight once a long time ago. I will have to watch it again, Mir could have definitely influenced me with his insight as I see him as a knowledgeable announcer. Dont get me wrong I like Varner as a fighter and think he has a great skill set, but he seems to complain in his fights too much. Also in his last fight Shalorus really put it to him. Varner for sure won the fight even though they called it a draw, but he lost that war. You obviously watch a lot of fights and know what you're talking about, but until I see that fight again Varner -200 seems a little steep for me.

ha ye Varner is a whining bitch at times! Shalorus landed a lot of heavy leg kicks on Varner, but im sure this wont happen as much in the Cerrone fight as Varner wont hesitate taking Cerrone down everytime his throws a kick. Shalorus is arguably a superior wrestler to Varner so Varner probably didnt think it was worth trying to counter his kicks with takedowns as he'd probly get stuffed and waste a lot of energy. But yee Varner should of been avoided the victory...he also showed a lot of heart by continuing after gettin booted in the nuts numerous times throughout tht fight...only adds the argument that he didnt bitch out of the Cerrone fight and that he was actually hurt! You are spot on with the Varner at -200 being a little steep, even though Im confident Varner will win, I would of liked and expected it to be more at -175. May just end up putting Varner in a double with Aldo or Hominick.

[Vaughany]

With UFC 120 in mind (which I'll be going to), thought Id find out how many fights between English and non-English fighters have gone to decision, and more importantly how many times the English fighter has actually won that decision. I think the dodgy Bisping win back at UFC 75 over Hamill has left a legacy of sorts wer people always think that the English man will always have the home advantage when it goes to the judges scorecard. Well, as you can see below, every fight in England that has gone to decision since UFC 75 (between an English fighter and foreign fighter) has gone to decision, with the Home fighter winning each one. What does this suggest? Id argue that in everyone of those fights the English fighter deserved the win and that there weren't any dodgy decisions from judges (obviously the Bisping Hamill one was but im talking about post UFC 75, and some may argue that Hardy didnt deserve the split-win against Gono), therefore it would be amiss to say that English fighters are favoured by judges. However, what this pattern may suggest is that English fighters raise their game when at home, that they battle it out to the end ensuring that if the fight does go to decision that they've done enough to get the nod. Im very confident that the Bisping/Akiyama fight will go the distance and am also pretty confident that Bisping will get the win (this will be my biggest bet of the night). Also thinking Hardy Condit will be a 3 round war with Hardy coming out on top by split decision.

UFC 105 - 1 out of 1 - Hardy beat Swick by decision
UFC 95 - 1 out of 1 - Kelly beat Mandaloniz by decision
UFC 89 - 3 out of 3 decisions Bisping (DEC), Etim (DEC) and Hardy (Split dec)
UFC 85 - 1 out of 1 - Taylor beat Laudin by decision
UFC 75 - 1/2 decisions - Bisping over Hamill by split decision and Etim lost to Tibau by unanimous decision

[lasker]

It could easily happen, but if Hardy wins I think there's a big enough chance it could end by TKO. Hardy packs some serious power, and Condit has been a bit too hittable in his recent fights.

Of course, Condit's tough as nails and seems to fight best when in survival mode. I would agree that Condit finishing Hardy seems highly unlikely. Since you like straddles, you might also consider Hardy straight up and Condit by decision, depending on the lines.

[Vaughany]

It could easily happen, but if Hardy wins I think there's a big enough chance it could end by TKO. Hardy packs some serious power, and Condit has been a bit too hittable in his recent fights.

Of course, Condit's tough as nails and seems to fight best when in survival mode. I would agree that Condit finishing Hardy seems highly unlikely. Since you like straddles, you might also consider Hardy straight up and Condit by decision, depending on the lines.

Yee, Hardy defo has KO power, but I do think its rather exaggerated. Markham is the only fighter he's actually KO'd in the UFC, and Markham was not in good shape goin in to tht fight (probably shouldnt of fought) and he got TKO'd by the pitter-patter strikes of Nate Diaz! I may well go for the straddle like you say tho. Would need Condit by decision at least +300 to make it worthwhile tho as Hardy is at 4/7 to win on paddypower.

Like Kongo to beat Browne as well.

[Vaughany]

WEC 50 play:

2 units on Shane Roller at -175.

I see his combination of experience, grappling and power being too much for the young but highly talented Pettis. Not sure if I'd of taken Roller at -200 but I'll take -175. I'm a massive fan of Pettis and can see him being champion one day. One of my best plays ever was puttin 2.5 units on him to beat Castillo at +125 and made money on him against Karalexis as well. But I just don't think he is ready yet for somebody like Roller. Will probably add Pettis to a parlay as some sort of back-up option in case he does manage to pull off the win! Here is some footage of the Roller vs Gomi exhibition grappling match that took place at a FanExpo and ended with Roller submitting Gomi comfortably...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OJRV19qKxKY

[Vaughany]

Small parlay added:

0.3 units on Florian, Nate Diaz, & Pearson to win 0.7 units (plus stake).

[Vaughany]

Not long till WEC 50 starts! My predictions are: Cruz, Roller, Micklewright, Jorgensen, Lamas, Paixao, Polish dude, Poirier, Vazquez, Money Mende$.

With regard to actual bets I've ended up not making as many plays as I originally planned due to a combination of poor value on some fights (Mendes at -400 for instance), and due to Paddypower not releasing Jorgensen vs Pickett, Bartimus vs Micklewright, and Castillo vs Poirier. Here are my few plays nonetheless:

2.5 units on Shane Roller to win 1.4 units (plus stake)

1 unit on Lamas to win 0.7 units (plus stake)

1 unit on Vazquez to win 0.5 units (plus stake)

Parlay: 0.5 units on Fredson Paixao, Kingo Mo, & Hornbuckle to win 0.6 units (plus stake).

[brooks85]

mir is at -140 now

[Vaughany]

mir is at -140 now

Damn i'd put most of my bankroll on tht! Gonna be pissed if he's down to -180 to -200 range by the time Paddypower make it available!

[Vaughany]

Not long till WEC 50 starts! My predictions are: Cruz, Roller, Micklewright, Jorgensen, Lamas, Paixao, Polish dude, Poirier, Vazquez, Money Mende$.

With regard to actual bets I've ended up not making as many plays as I originally planned due to a combination of poor value on some fights (Mendes at -400 for instance), and due to Paddypower not releasing Jorgensen vs Pickett, Bartimus vs Micklewright, and Castillo vs Poirier. Here are my few plays nonetheless:

2.5 units on Shane Roller to win 1.4 units (plus stake)

1 unit on Lamas to win 0.7 units (plus stake)

1 unit on Vazquez to win 0.5 units (plus stake)

Parlay: 0.5 units on Fredson Paixao, Kingo Mo, & Hornbuckle to win 0.6 units (plus stake).

Another bad night due to Roller's meltdown Down 1.5 units but Paixao won so still have the parlay with King Mo and Hornbuckle (wouldn't be surprised if Blackburn beats Hornbuckle tho!).

Have added:

1 unit on Taylor to win 0.7 units (plus stake)

0.5 units on Frausto, Konrad & Grabowski to win 0.5 units (plus stake)

0.1 units on Barrett & King Mo to win 0.6 units (plus stake).

[snake11eyes]

mir is at -140 now

Holy crap Mir opened at -220 or -240. Time to load up on Mir I dont think you'll get a better price than that.

[snake11eyes]

Damn Mir already back to -260 WTF. I didn't even get a chance to put anything on him.

[Vaughany]

Damn Mir already back to -260 WTF. I didn't even get a chance to put anything on him.

[RollPlayer]

Matt Wiman just dropped out of UFN 122 and your boy Charles Oliviera is in against Efrain Escudero. Who ya got?