Vaughany's MMA Picks...

**Shagdogy** · 07-01-10, 03:33 PM

Damn Vaughany, you hit up the props like nobody's business. Big return... but I'm playing safer than you. Good luck.

**Vaughany** · 07-02-10, 01:09 PM

ha yee more risk but I've been a lot more successful with prop bets than I have with predicting winners or parlays! My last successful night was when I bet on Bisping by decision and Rashad by decision!

Check out Hardy's predictions for 116:

Page Not Found | BJPenn.com

http://www.bjpenn.com/video/dan-hard...-ufc-120-fight

He sees Carwin and Leben as "safe" bets. Like him or hate him, Hardy has great MMA knowledge and understanding, he usually gets 75% of his picks correct. He was top of the Telegraph's (newspaper) UFC prediction competition last time I looked!

**Vaughany** · 07-03-10, 04:09 PM

Final picks summary for UFC116:

0.25 units on Lytle by submission at 2/1 (straddle with Brown by decision at 7/1)

0.25 units on Grove at 6/5

0.5 units on Madsen at 6/5

0.5 units on Leben at 7/4 (straddle with Akiyama by decision at 3/1)

0.5 units on Soszynski/Bonnar going the distance at Evens

1 unit on Sotiropolous/Pellegrino going the distance at 6/5

0.5 units on Akiyama by decision at 3/1

0.5 units on Brown by decision at 7/1

0.15 units (Fourfolds from 5) on Soszynski, Schaub, Roberts, Romero and Lytle

0.15 units on Carwin at 11/10

BOL all!

**JuicedUp** · 07-03-10, 04:24 PM

+700 on Brown by DEC is a great fukkin play. I wish I would have snagged it.

**Vaughany** · 07-03-10, 09:40 PM

100% so far...already got my stake back no matter what happens from now on, and still got 3 fights and parlays to go. If Brown wins by decision I'll be buzzzzzzing!

**Shagdogy** · 07-04-10, 10:45 AM

Nice work. How'd you end up overall? K-sos ruined that parlay huh? Damn .

**Vaughany** · 07-04-10, 02:35 PM

Cheers bro, ended up almost doubling my stake...from a total risk of 3.8 units I ended up with 6.1 units so pretty good. Yep Soszynski pulled my pants down! Ruined what could of been a perfect night...still got the stake back and a little bit more from the parlay as it was 4 out of 5 folds bet, but lost 0.5 units on their fight not going to decision....was the one bet I was least confident about and a stupid one in hindsight as it was only Evens odds to go to decision which isn't great value for a prop bet...especially on Paddypower and when its 2 dudes who just slug it out. Only other pick I lost on was Carwin but tht was a very low 0.15 units so no problem. All my other prop bets and straddles came through, shame Brown didn't win by decision which would of made my night a lot more lucrative, but luckily I had Lytle by submission so still got some profit from tht straddle. Same with Akiyama vs Leben, would of won a bit more if Akiyama had of won by decision but still won a bit anyway as I had a straddle with Leben winning. Sotiropolous/Pellegrino going to decision was my best bet...should of really used the stake from the Sos/Bonnar prop bet on tht aswell...was pretty certain it was gonna go to decision. All 3 underdog picks came through as well in Grove, Madsen and Leben. Underdogs and prop bets are definitely the future! Awesome event tho!

**ddream1** · 07-04-10, 03:17 PM

well done sir well done

**Vaughany** · 07-04-10, 04:17 PM

Cheers squire! Looking forward to UFC117 now. Probly wont have many plays on the Fight Night as cant do prop bets on paddypower for non-pay per view events. Gonna unload big either on Fitch/Alves to decision, or a straddle of Alves to win and Fitch by decision depending on which option has best value. Also very confident that Almeida vs Hughes will go to decision so big play ther.

**Shagdogy** · 07-05-10, 07:40 AM

You don't think Almeida could sub a slowed down Hughes? He looks good at Welterweight.

**Vaughany** · 07-05-10, 12:09 PM

Ye I think Almeida should win it and could get a 3rd round sub but think decision is more likely.

**Vaughany** · 07-09-10, 07:36 AM

1 Dream 15 play:

Parlay - 0.1 units on JZ Cavalcante, Ishida and Manhoef to win 0.25 units (plus stake).

**BIGDAY** · 07-09-10, 11:29 AM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

You don't think Almeida could sub a slowed down Hughes? He looks good at Welterweight.

I actually think Hughes has very underrated submission def. My two cents.

**Vaughany** · 07-09-10, 11:50 AM

Ye got subbed by Penn but Almeida is not as aggressive with submissions as BJ. Pretty confident it will go to decision.

**Vaughany** · 07-17-10, 09:31 AM

Upcoming bets that I'll be looking to place in next few months depending on value...

Charles Oliveira
James Irvin
Rick Story
Morecraft
Thiago Silva
Saunders
Pearson
Wiman
Bader
Mir
Blackledge

Prop bets:

Hughes/Almeida to decision

Hardy/Condit to decision

Bisping/Akiyama to decision

Hathaway/Dong Kim to decision

Straddles:

Dos Anjos to win and Guida by dec

Alves to win and Fitch by dec

A.Silva to win and Sonnen by dec

Penn by submission and Edgar by dec

**jin2daj** · 07-18-10, 09:49 AM

i like the alves fitch straddle

**Vaughany** · 07-22-10, 12:17 PM

Strikeforce Challengers 9:

0.5 units on Kaufmann and Del Rosario
0.1 units on Voelkner

**phillybadboy** · 07-24-10, 12:29 AM

good luck this weekend vaughny

**Vaughany** · 07-24-10, 02:59 AM

Originally posted by phillybadboy

good luck this weekend vaughny

Thanks man, both bets came through!

Del Rosario and Kaufmann won by TKO/KO and Voelkner won by Split decision. Shouldnt of hesitated putting more on Voelkner...was great value with him at 7/4 against a fighter with a poor record, a long-layoff and a bad loss last time he fought

**Vaughany** · 07-26-10, 02:26 PM

3 plays added:

0.2 units on Kimmons & Thiago Silva (double)

0.2 units on T.Griffin & Irvin (double)

0.25 units on DaMarques Johnson (7/4)

**Vaughany** · 07-27-10, 01:34 PM

Added 1 unit on Stann at +125. He's had a great training camp with Team Jackson and preparing for his fight along with Bones Jones. Stann looks in awesome shape at 185lbs (probably at 193-195 currently of course) and Massenzio hasnt fought in 18 months coming off numerous injury setbacks - ring rust should definitely be a major factor in this fight. Furthermore, if CB Dolloway can TKO Massenzio then I'm sure Stann can do the same! Massenzio also lost to Villefort when Villefort barely trained for the fight and was fighting at a weight above his usual 170lbs (http://www.fightlockdown.com/article...s-you-will-see). Overall, I think there is great value in Stann at +125. Before the odds came out I was expecting Massenzio to be closer to evens or +110 and Stann to be the favourite at -125 due to his experience and due to the fact that Massenzio has had a long layoff.

**The HOFF** · 07-27-10, 03:02 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Overall, I think there is great value in Stann at +125. Before the odds came out I was expecting Massenzio to be closer to evens or +110 and Stann to be the favourite at -125 due to his experience and due to the fact that Massenzio has had a long layoff.

Totally agree. I think Stann is one of the best bets on the card. 5Dimes is at +140 right now. Not sure if I should wait or grab that number.

**lasker** · 07-27-10, 03:37 PM

Normally I'd be betting on Massenzio in what I consider a good stylistic matchup for him, but for the reasons that Vaughany listed, this one is a no-bet for me. Hoff, if you're on Stann you should probably grab that number. I don't think it will get better than +140.

**Vaughany** · 07-27-10, 03:47 PM

Originally posted by lasker

Normally I'd be betting on Massenzio in what I consider a good stylistic matchup for him, but for the reasons that Vaughany listed, this one is a no-bet for me. Hoff, if you're on Stann you should probably grab that number. I don't think it will get better than +140.

Yee I'd of resisted it if Massenzio hadn't of been off for so long. Yep, id take +140, if anything I think it will go down to +130 or something.

**Vaughany** · 07-28-10, 03:10 AM

Paddypower have put up prop bets for FightNight Main Card which is unusual so have jumped on Munoz/Okami to go the distance at +137.5 (0.5 units), and Griffin by decision at +137.5 (0.5 units). Also added Jones by decision at +350 (0.1 unit).

**Vaughany** · 08-01-10, 12:46 PM

Summary of my plays for Versus tonight:

0.1 units on Kelly & Riddle (double parlay)

0.1 units on Jones by decision

0.2 units on Kimmons

0.2 units on Griffin & Irvin (double parlay)

0.25 units on Damarques Johnson

0.5 units on Griffin by decision

0.5 units on Munoz/Okami to decision

1 unit on Stann

BOL all!

**snake11eyes** · 08-01-10, 12:56 PM

I just put 1 unit on Stann +170 and 0.5 unit on Stann/Irvin double. Lets get em Vaughany.

**Vaughany** · 08-01-10, 01:30 PM

Originally posted by snake11eyes

I just put 1 unit on Stann +170 and 0.5 unit on Stann/Irvin double. Lets get em Vaughany.

Yes bro! Feeling confident about Stann...looks like he's in awesome shape and clearly had the best camp of his career.

**Shagdogy** · 08-01-10, 03:26 PM

The only thing that scares me about Stann is the takedown defense. Massenzio is not the wrestler Davis is, but Stann had NOTHING for Davis's takedowns. The ring-rust is a definite factor though for Massenzio, and Stann spending his time with the Jackson camp doesn't hurt either. As this one draws closer I just might drop a little on Stann. Care to convince me in to it?

**Vaughany** · 08-01-10, 03:37 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

The only thing that scares me about Stann is the takedown defense. Massenzio is not the wrestler Davis is, but Stann had NOTHING for Davis's takedowns. The ring-rust is a definite factor though for Massenzio, and Stann spending his time with the Jackson camp doesn't hurt either. As this one draws closer I just might drop a little on Stann. Care to convince me in to it?

ha All I've got is this which I wrote the other day which is below! All I can do is stress that the ring rust combined with the fact that Stann has been working on takedown defense with Evans, Jones, Schaub, Carwin etc... means that Id rather take him at plus value than Massenzio at minus.

Added 1 unit on Stann at +125. He's had a great training camp with Team Jackson and preparing for his fight along with Bones Jones. Stann looks in awesome shape at 185lbs and Massenzio hasnt fought in 18 months coming off numerous injury setbacks - ring rust should definitely be a major factor in this fight. Furthermore, if CB Dolloway can TKO Massenzio then I'm sure Stann can do the same! Massenzio also lost to Villefort when Villefort barely trained for the fight and was fighting at a weight above his usual 170lbs (reference- http://www.fightlockdown.com/article...s-you-will-see). Overall, I think there is great value in Stann at +125.

**Shagdogy** · 08-01-10, 05:06 PM

All right, I put .5 on Stann... got greedy though and parlayed it with Oliveira for an extra 50%. Hope that doesn't bite me in the ass. Good luck!

**JuicedUp** · 08-01-10, 06:18 PM

Stann

**Vaughany** · 08-01-10, 09:29 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

All right, I put .5 on Stann... got greedy though and parlayed it with Oliveira for an extra 50%. Hope that doesn't bite me in the ass. Good luck!

ha Great decision!

**Vaughany** · 08-01-10, 09:36 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Summary of my plays for Versus tonight:

0.1 units on Kelly & Riddle (double parlay)

0.1 units on Jones by decision

0.2 units on Kimmons

0.2 units on Griffin & Irvin (double parlay)

0.25 units on Damarques Johnson

0.5 units on Griffin by decision

0.5 units on Munoz/Okami to decision

1 unit on Stann

BOL all!

Wow really didnt expect the Gomi KO! All good tho thanks to Munoz/Okami going the distance and Stann pulling off the win (my biggest play). Gonna end up at least 0.6 units up no matter what happens in Jones fight!

**Shagdogy** · 08-01-10, 10:06 PM

How on earth did Stann sub Massenzio with a triangle!? I'm glad he did, that saved my night, but I need to see that. Never would have predicted it. Oliveira v. Elkins went exactly as I thought. Elkins loves the takedown but his BJJ was not at all where it needed to be. A little homework would have done him well. Also didn't expect the Gomi KO. Looked like his power was gone against Florian but I guess not. Did slightly better than breaking even tonight... not bad. Well done.