Vaughany's MMA Picks...

[Vaughany]

Vaughany, you didn't get anything on Voelker at +425.

Nooo unfortunately not, for some reason I thought the event was tonight!

[Fiasco01]

Any love for Yvel? I think he can KO Madsen.

[lasker]

Any love for Yvel? I think he can KO Madsen.

I hope it wont' happen.... But for some reason I'm starting to really second guess my Madsen bet. Please don't stand with him, Madsen.

[Vaughany]

I wouldn't be surprised if Madsen tries to show off his 'improved stand-up' for a little too long and gets caught. I'd of taken Madsen at -200 though as it shouldnt look much different to the Rothwell Yvel fight.

[Eccocide]

Summary of UFC 121 Plays:

Straddle: 2 units on Shields by decision at +175; 0.365 units on Kampmann by decision at +550; & 0.365 units on Shields "Submission of the Night" at +650. Will makes just over 2 units if Shields wins by decision, and will get overall stake (2.73 units) back if Kampmann wins by decision or Shields get sub of the night;

2.5 units on Hamill/Ortiz to decision at Evens to win 2.5 units (plus stake);

2.5 units on Sanchez/P.Thiago to decision at Evens to win 2.5 units (plus stake);

2 units on Camozzi at +120 to win 2.4 units (plus stake).

1.635 units on Cote/Lawlor to decision at -110 to win 1.486 units (plus stake);

1 unit on Stout/Taylor "Fight of the Night" at +600 to win 6 units (plus stake);

1 unit on Lesnar/Velasquez Over 2.5 Rounds at +151 to win 1.51 units (plus stake);

0.284 units on Cote/Lawlor "Fight of the Night" at +700 to win 1.99 units (plus stake);

0.3 units on Schaub "KO of the Night" at +700 to win 2.1 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Cote "KO of the Night" at +1600 to win 1.6 units (plus stake).


That should be my lot for the night, decided to resist betting on Lesnar or Velasquez to win, I think Brock should win it but I'm expecting it to go to at least 3rd round just because of how tough and resilient they both are. Just put a couple hundred of SBR points on Brown Pride for banter! BOL to all

You are getting some serious value on these plays! I wish I could be on a euro book lol. GL tonight!

[lasker]

GL Vaughany, liking the bets Schaub KO of the night in round 3, coming right up!

[Vaughany]

UFC 121 Review:

Summary of UFC 121 Plays:

Straddle: 2 units on Shields by decision at +175; 0.365 units on Kampmann by decision at +550; & 0.365 units on Shields "Submission of the Night" at +650. Will makes just over 2 units if Shields wins by decision, and will get overall stake (2.73 units) back if Kampmann wins by decision or Shields get sub of the night;

2.5 units on Hamill/Ortiz to decision at Evens to win 2.5 units (plus stake);

2.5 units on Sanchez/P.Thiago to decision at Evens to win 2.5 units (plus stake);

2 units on Camozzi at +120 to win 2.4 units (plus stake).

1.635 units on Cote/Lawlor to decision at -110 to win 1.486 units (plus stake);

1 unit on Stout/Taylor "Fight of the Night" at +600 to win 6 units (plus stake);

1 unit on Lesnar/Velasquez Over 2.5 Rounds at +151 to win 1.51 units (plus stake);

0.284 units on Cote/Lawlor "Fight of the Night" at +700 to win 1.99 units (plus stake);

0.3 units on Schaub "KO of the Night" at +700 to win 2.1 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Cote "KO of the Night" at +1600 to win 1.6 units (plus stake).


That should be my lot for the night, decided to resist betting on Lesnar or Velasquez to win, I think Brock should win it but I'm expecting it to go to at least 3rd round just because of how tough and resilient they both are. Just put a couple hundred of SBR points on Brown Pride for banter! BOL to all

Also had a 4 out of 5 folds parlay that I did a while ago that needed a Shields win to get the stake back:

Fourfolds from 5: 0.3 units on Jardine, Saffiedine, J. Taylor, Shields, Mir to win 1.295 (plus stake).

Great night of fights and the Velasquez win was EPIC! All my plays which had over a unit at stake were successful. In hindsight perhaps a bit silly not picking a fight that involved Diego Sanchez for FOTN!

Total Stake for UFC 121: 14.349 units
Total Return: 23.36 units
Profit: + 9.011 units

[MadTiger]

Nice work, Vaughany.

[Vaughany]

On the back of a successful result last night, here are my initial thoughts on what will be my likely plays for the next 2 UFC events taking place in November:

UFC 122:

After getting 4 out of 4 in my 'to decision' prop bets last night, I feel there is potential for a similar result at the next event in Germany. Not a lot of big names on the 122 card and will no doubt receive a similar bashing to what 120 got, but nonetheless I think there are some highly intriguing bouts on the card which also have the potential to be very entertaining. One of the main things that is apparent when looking at this card is that the majority of the match-ups seem very even and thus tough to call who will win. However, this offers great opportunity for the 'to decision' prop bet IMO. The main event Marquardt vs Okami to go to decision and main card fight - Sadollah vs Sobotta to go to decision - will be two definite plays for me if the odds are -110 or better.

Firstly, with regard to Marquardt vs Okami, 7 out of 11 of Okami's fights in the UFC have gone to decision, with the only stoppages (all in Okami's favour) coming against opposition such as Singer, Starnes, Linhares, and Tanner, all of whom are a level below the likes of Marquardt and the other previous fighters who Okami has beaten or loss to in decisions such as Sonnen, Munoz, Franklin, and Belcher. The fact that Okami's only losses have been by decision shows how tough and durable he is. Furthermore, Okami and Marquardt are very evenly matched, both being well-rounded and large middleweights although Marquardt perhaps has greater power and better camp/team behind him which would make me lean towards him winning a decision if I had to pick between them. Overall, I think that this fight goes to decision at least 60% of the time which means a bet at evens or -110 is good value IMO.

Another fight that I feel goes to decision at least 60% of the time is Amir Sadollah vs Peter Sobotta. Sadollah's last three fights have been to decision (winning two and losing the last one after being totally out grappled by Dong-Hyun Kim). He was TKO'd early against Hendricks, however Hendricks is a level above Sobotta, as well as Baroni and Blackburn who Sadollah has beaten since the Hendricks loss. Meanwhile, Sobotta has lost both of his two UFC fights by decision and is in a must-win situation in front of his home crowd. I think there is a possibility that Sadollah could submit Sobotta off his back or through a rear-naked, however, James Wilks (who IMO is a better grappler and rangier than Sadollah) couldn't submit Sobotta in three-rounds, so I like my chances that Sobotta with the German audience behind will manage to resist getting submitted if he takes Sadollah down (I think Sadollah will fancy his chances standing and not actively pursue the takedown through his blackbelt sambo).

I also like the Soszynski/Reljic and Siver/Winner fights to go to decision as well, but not as confident as I am with the Marquardt and Sadollah fights.

Since his return from injury Reljic has lost two on the bounce by decision so is in a must win position and will probly face the chop if he does lose. The Polish Experiment is 4-2 in the UFC but is coming off a TKO loss to Bonnar and is not at threat of being cut but needs the win big time if he wants to stay relevant. This should lead to both fighters being more cautious than they have before. Reljic has never been finished before and is a brown-belt in BJJ so I dont think Soszynski will be able to submit him with his favoured Kimura move like he did against Primm, Stann and Hicks before. I think there is more than 50% chance this fight goes to decision so will take it if I can get it better than Evens odds.

Siver/Winner should be a great stand-up battle. Winner certainly wont try to take this to the ground and it's unlikely Siver will either (even though he'd probably have the slight advantage there), especially as he's the key German representative in the UFC and will be eager to impress and get a KO or FOTN in front of the German crowd. 3 out of 4 of Winner's UFC fights have gone to decision, he KO'd Rolly Delgado who's stand up is no way near Siver's level. Both fighters have each lost a decision to Ross Pearson and Siver has been TKO'd once in his career against Guillard. Depending on the odds, I may take this as well to go to decision.

UFC 123:

Great card for UFC 123, with the likes of Tyson Griffin, Parisyan, and Kelly on the undercard; and 4 of the most entertaining fighters in Foster, Brown, Munoz and Simpson all on the SPIKE TV card. I'm looking at both of the SPIKE fights to go to decision. Matt Brown and Foster are both tough as hell and I think they are going to have a 3 round FOTN WAR! Also will look to take Hallman if he is the underdog as I expect. On the main card my two big plays will be Sotiripolous by decision; and Machida by decision hedged with Rampage by TKO/KO. I think the reach and size advantage will be too much for Lauzon against Sotiropolous, plus he doesnt have a clear advantage standing or grappling IMO. I will do a proper write-up of my thoughts on this match-up closer to the event, but overall I don't see Sotiripolous TKO/KO'ing or submitting Lauzon. Regarding the Machida Rampage match-up, although it's not out of the question, I dont envisage Machida TKO/KO'ing Rampage. After being KO'd by Rua in the first round of his last fight, I think Machida will go back to being very cautious and elusive and will just pick apart a heavy-footed Rampage. There is always a chance that Rampage catches him tho and as he is the +200 underdog anyway, I think there will be good value in Rampage by TKO/KO at +350 or better as a back-up bet.

[Eccocide]

GJ V! I'm gunna find a way to get on those euro books so I can get those damn lines!

[Shagdogy]

Good job man. Those odds are outrageous for the "to decision" props. I'd love to take all of those, but they're -175 etc. over here. Well done. Take advantage!

[lasker]

Great job Vaughany

[Vaughany]

2 Month Review:

Since Bellator 26 (August 26th) I have had the following results:

Bellator 26: + 0.45 units
UFC 118: + 6.11 units
MFC Retribution: - 1.6 units
UFC FIGHT NIGHT 22 PLAYS: + 5.55 units
UFC 119: + 1.5 units
WEC 51: + 1.07 units
Cage Warriors 38: + 11.0 units
Strikeforce Diaz vs Noons 2: + 2.417 units
UFC 120: - 0.589 units
UFC 121: + 9.011 units

Total Profit since August 26th: + 34.919 units




Review of prop bets and straddles since August 26th (Bellator 26):


Fight to go to decision props:


(100% success rate):



Successful:

2.5 units on Hamill/Ortiz to decision at Evens to win 2.5 units (plus stake);


2.5 units on Sanchez/P.Thiago to decision at Evens to win 2.5 units (plus stake);


1.635 units on Cote/Lawlor to decision at -110 to win 1.486 units (plus stake)


2 units on Lytle/Serra to decision at Evens to win 2 units (plus stake);


2 units on Florian/Maynard going the distance to win 1.45 units (plus stake);


Fail:

None




Fighter to win by decision (straight-up):



(50% success rate)...



Successful:

2.5 units on Bisping by decision at +137.5 to win 3.438 units (plus stake);


0.5 units on Bader by decision at +175 to win 0.875 units (plus stake);


Fail:

3 units on Hathaway by decision at +130 to win 3.9 units (plus stake);



0.5 units on Dunham by decision at +137.5 to win 0.688 units (plus stake);




Fighter to win by decision/sub/KO straddles:



(60% success rate)...



Successful:

Straddle: 2 units on Shields by decision at +175; 0.365 units on Kampmann by decision at +550; & 0.365 units on Shields "Submission of the Night" at +650. Will makes just over 2 units if Shields wins by decision, and will get overall stake (2.73 units) back if Kampmann wins by decision or Shields get sub of the night;



Straddle: 2.1 units on Stephens at +125, & 1 unit on Guillard by decision at +200;



Straddle: 2 units on Gleison Tibau at +137.5 to win 2.75 units (plus stake); and 2.5 units on Jim Miller by decision at +200 to win 5 units (plus stake)


Straddle: 1.7 units on Charles Oliveira by submission at +550 to win 9.35 units (plus stake); and 1 unit on Efrain Escudero by decision at +275 to win 2.75 units (plus stake)



Straddle 2: 0.5 units on Edgar by decision to win 2.250 units (plus stake); and 0.3 units on Penn by submission to win 0.6 units (plus stake);


Straddle 1 (of sorts): 1 unit on Couture winning in Rnd 1 to win 2 units (plus stake), and 0.3 units on Couture winning in Rnd 2 to win 1 unit (plus stake). Can only see Couture gettin a sub or TKO win either in 1st or 2nd round...would be MASSIVELY shocked if anything else occurs!



Fail:

Straddle: 1.6 units on Hardy by decision at +350 to win 5.6 units; and 1.6 units on Condit to win by decision at +650 to win 10.4 units;


Straddle: 1 unit on CB Dolloway by decision at +175, & 0.225 units on Doerkson by sub at +450;


Straddle: 2 units on Palhares at +200 to win 4 units (plus stake); and 1.15 units on Marquardt by decision at +175 to win 2 units (plus stake)


Straddle 4: 1.5 units on Ross Pearson by TKO/KO at +300 to win 4.5 units (plus stake); and 0.9 units on Ross Pearson to win by decision at +175 to win 1.575 units.




Fight Over 2.5 Rnds:



(50% Success Rate)...



Successful:


1 unit on Diaz/Noons over 2.5 rounds at -116 to win 0.862 units, and 1 unit at -122 to win 0.820 units (plus stake);



Fail:

1 unit on Lesnar/Velasquez over 2.5 rounds

[rocky mattioli]

well done,dude.....i had mixed results....the performidy(spelling ??) column pushed me over the edge on a shields/lesnar parlay(much to my chagrin)....

your distance props were sharp as a tack...

[Vaughany]

"Nemesis Fighting: MMA Global Invasion" Play:

Parlay: 0.46 units on Jeff Curran, Eliot Marshall, & Sotiropolous to win 0.899 units (plus stake).

[Vaughany]

UFC 122 Play:

1 unit on Soszynski at +110 to win 1.1 units (plus stake).

[snake11eyes]

UFC 122 Play:

1 unit on Soszynski at +110 to win 1.1 units (plus stake).

Im going to give Soszynski another chance as well, but I was disappointed with him in his last fight with Bonnar.

[jacktheknife]

Not worried about Reljic's range or better BJJ creds or anything?

[Vaughany]

Not worried about Reljic's range or better BJJ creds or anything?

Yep, Reljic could definitely beat him by using his range and could possibly submit Ksoz of his back but Soz is aggressive on the ground and will look for his kimura if it goes there. Furthermore, I'm not convinced that Reljic offers any significant threat on the ground against KSoz, he has tapped a load of cans in Europe in the past such as Kelner 9 wins 10 losses; Smykowski 0 wins 5 losses; Mihajolovic 3 wins 3 losses; Bregar 0 wins 2 losses; etc....I just think there is a good chance that Soz can bully him using his size advantage and take a decision or even look like the KSoz vs Gusmao fight and end with an early KO from the Polish Experiment. I may hedge it with Reljic by decision if skybet offer decent odds, probly +350 or better.

[JediMind87]

I see the fight playing out similar to KS vs Gusmao fight.Reljic's downfall is that he only throws two strikes and retreats.I see KS backing GR up and out muscling him.Goran could sub KS if he's comes in wild but i think he learned his lesson against Malgahes.Things to also consider KS has a decent Jab and GR has shitty stamina. KS by tko rnd.2

[Vaughany]

WEC 52 Plays:

1 unit on McDonald at -121 to win 0.826 units (plus stake);

1 unit on Vazquez at +252 to win 2.52 units (plus stake).

Will be looking to add a couple of parlays as soon as the odds are out on Paddypower, one will probably be a 'Team Alpha-Male' treble consisting of Mendes, Benevidez and Faber! Another will probably have Page, Jabouin, Koch, and Faaloloto (3 from 4 folds).

[JediMind87]

WEC 52 Plays:

1 unit on McDonald at -121 to win 0.826 units (plus stake);

1 unit on Vazquez at +252 to win 2.52 units (plus stake).

Will be looking to add a couple of parlays as soon as the odds are out on Paddypower, one will probably be a 'Team Alpha-Male' treble consisting of Mendes, Benevidez and Faber! Another will probably have Page, Jabouin, Koch, and Faaloloto (3 from 4 folds).

After reading that article in Fight Mag and reading your praise of Mayday, I'm going to throw him into a parlay McDonald/Faber/Krauss/Okami. GL Vaughany.

[Salvan]

Chad Mendes is the future of the division imo, Vasquez has a chance with a sub, but mendes is just a beast grappler also team alpha male guys take their sub defense very serious. How many times have they get submitted? Add to that the fact that mendes is the best grappler at team alpha male I think Mendes will take this pretty easily. I checked the team alpha make 3 teamer earlier on 5 dimes it was getting +200, I think that's a solid parlay and I usually don't touch parlays.

[Vaughany]

UFC 122 Plays:

3 units on Noke at +162.5 to win 4.875 units (plus stake); and 3 units on Kimmons at +185 to win 5.55 units (plus stake);

21.7 units on Noke at +162.5 to win 35.262 units (plus stake); and 21.7 units on Kimmons at +200 to win 43.4 units (plus stake).

[rocky mattioli]

gonna put a unit on a koch(wec)/sadollah(ufc) parlay laying 1 to win .7.......

just watched paul taylor kick the shit out of sobotta(in germany)....wasn`t close....taylor won the stand-up...and actually got the best of the ground game....

his kicks were brutal...and sadollah has dangerous kicks and knees...and should be just as dangerous jits-wise as sobotta...

strong guys give sadollah problems...sobotta just isn`t all that physical...when he got taylor down,he couldn`t keep him there...

and koch just seems to be on a higher level...

here`s taylor/sobotta...

[Vaughany]

[QUOTE=rocky mattioli;7353691]gonna put a unit on a koch(wec)/sadollah(ufc) parlay laying 1 to win .7.......

just watched paul taylor kick the shit out of sobotta(in germany)....wasn`t close....taylor won the stand-up...and actually got the best of the ground game....

his kicks were brutal...and sadollah has dangerous kicks and knees...and should be just as dangerous jits-wise as sobotta...

strong guys give sadollah problems...sobotta just isn`t all that physical...when he got taylor down,he couldn`t keep him there...

and koch just seems to be on a higher level...

here`s taylor/sobotta...


Yeah Sobotta isn't a big welterweight, Sadollah should be able to pick him apart, I'll be taking Sadollah by decision hedged with Sadollah Submission of the Night if I can get reasonable value. Koch should win but always dangerous betting on a young upcoming fighter at -300 to -500 range against an unknown, although if you've got him at -300 he's probably worth parlay material.

[Vaughany]

Additional WEC52, UFC122 & UFC123 Plays:

2.5 units on Marquardt/Okami to decision at -137.5 to win 1.818 units (plus stake);

Parlay (3 from 4 folds): 0.6 units on Faber, Mendes, Jabouin, & Sotiropolous to win 1.912 units (plus stake).

[Vaughany]

UFC 122 Play:

1 unit on Soszynski at +110 to win 1.1 units (plus stake).

Hedging this play with:

1.2 units on Soszynski/Reljic to decision at -120 to win 1 unit (plus stake).

I see KSos winning this fight but can't rule out a Reljic decision win. Hopefully the Polish Experiment wins by decision which would give me an overall return of 4.3 units (2.1 units profit). If Reljic wins a decision I'll get my overall stake for the two bets of 2.2 units back. If KSoz wins by TKO/KO or Sub then I'll lose 0.1 units from overall stake. Worse case scenario would be Reljic winning by sub or TKO/KO which would mean losing 2.2 units! Fingers crossed KSoz fights a little smarter defensively than he did in his last fight and makes it through the 3 rounds. The fact that he has said in an interview that he's been working especially hard on his cardio and that he expects the fight to go the full three rounds helps boost my confidence!

[ddream1]

your an absolute beast sir. great plays, great results. pleasure to read your thread and ECC's

[Vaughany]

your an absolute beast sir. great plays, great results. pleasure to read your thread and ECC's

Cheers bro, much appreciated!



More plays added:

0.2 units on Soszynski/Reljic being 'Fight of the Night' at +500 to win 1 unit (plus stake);

0.5 units on Sakara/Rivera being 'Fight of the Night' at +400 to win 2 units (plus stake);

0.5 units on 'Any under-card fighter getting Submission of the Night' at +150 to win 0.75 units (plus stake);

0.5 units on Matyushenko by decision at +120 to win 0.6 units (plus stake).


I would go bigger on the 'Any under-card fighter getting Submission of the Night' but I can't rule out Sadollah subbing Sobotta. I don't foresee any sub finishes in the Okami, Winner, KSos or Sakara match-ups, I see at least 3 of them going to decision. The under-card meanwhile has a lot more potential for submissions, particularly in the Krauss/Scanlon fight, either of the Brazilians against McCray and Matyushenko, Osipzcak could sub Ludwig, and Noke/Kimmons fight could have a sub win.

[Vaughany]

Summary of WEC 52 Plays:

1 unit on McDonald at -121 to win 0.826 units (plus stake);

1 unit on Vazquez at +252 to win 2.52 units (plus stake);

Parlay (3 from 4 folds): 0.6 units on Faber, Mendes, Jabouin, & Sotiropolous(UFC 123) to win 1.912 units (plus stake);

0.5 units on Faber by decision at +150 to win 0.75 units (plus stake).


BOL all!

[Poppa Catfish]

I am also on Vazquez plus single bets of: Assuanco, Jabouin, and Fabiano vs Benavidez going to decision

BOL to you

[Vaughany]

I am also on Vazquez plus single bets of: Assuanco, Jabouin, and Fabiano vs Benavidez going to decision

BOL to you

Nice one, I reckon 2 of those 3 dogs will pull off the win! I'd of probably taken Fabiano/Benavidez to decision as well if it was available on any of my books.

[snake11eyes]

Summary of WEC 52 Plays:

1 unit on Vazquez at +252 to win 2.52 units (plus stake);

I like Mendes personally, but not at -300. I think he will hold Vazquez down for three rounds. However, I see why people like Vazquez at that price. He will certainly be moneys toughest fight to date. Why not take Vazquez inside the distance and double your odds. He's at +480 at 5dimes and Sportbet now. No way Vazquez takes this one on the cards with Mendes superior wrestling. He's also a part of TAM so Faber for sure and maybe the other two will get the benefit of the judges.

[Vaughany]

I like Mendes personally, but not at -300. I think he will hold Vazquez down for three rounds. However, I see why people like Vazquez at that price. He will certainly be moneys toughest fight to date. Why not take Vazquez inside the distance and double your odds. He's at +480 at 5dimes and Sportbet now. No way Vazquez takes this one on the cards with Mendes superior wrestling. He's also a part of TAM so Faber for sure and maybe the other two will get the benefit of the judges.

IMO the value play is definitely with Vazquez in this one at +252 although I agree, if I had the option I'd of bet on Mendes by decision straddled with Vazquez by sub, but unfortunately prop plays aren't available for WEC on paddypower (except main event), skybet or pinnacle and dont have a 5dimes or Sportbet account. I've got Mendes in the parlay with Jabouin, Faber and Sotiripolous so have got a hedge of sorts in case Vazquez loses.