Vaughany's MMA Picks...

[phillybadboy]

[Vaughany]

UFC 124 plays review:

2.5 units on Bocek at Evens to win 2.5 units (plus stake);

2 units on Bocek/Hazelett to decision at +110 to win 2.2 units (plus stake);

2.5 units on Miller/Oliveira to decision at -137.5 to win 1.818 units (plus stake);

2 units on J.Miller at +105 to win 2.1 units (plus stake);

2 units on GSP by decision at +150 to win 3 units (plus stake);

0.166 units on Koscheck by TKO/KO at +900 to win 1.494 units (plus stake);

1 unit on Thiago Alves by decision at +225 to win 2.25 units (plus stake);

0.6 units on Stevenson by decision at +150 to win 0.9 units (plus stake);

0.2 units on Pierson at +275 to win 0.55 units (plus stake);

Parlay (Trebles from 4 folds): 1.2 units on Wilkinson, Stevenson, Thiago Alves, & GSP to win 2.439 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on J.Miller by decision & D.Miller by submission at +1000 to win 1 unit (plus stake);



0.1 units on Makdessi 'Quickest TKO/KO' at +1400 to win 1.4 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Audinwood 'Quickest Submission' at +1400 to win 1.4 units (plus stake);

0.2 units on McCorkle 'Quickest TKO/KO' at +900 to win 1.8 units (plus stake);

0.05 units on Stevenson 'Quickest TKO/KO at +2000 to win 1 unit (plus stake);

0.1 unit on Stevenson 'Quickest Submission' at +700 to win 0.7 units (plus stake);



0.563 units on Thiago Alves/Howard 'Fight of the Night' at +750 to win 4.223 units (plus stake);

0.09 units on Miller/Oliveira 'Fight of the Night' at +800 to win 0.72 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on GSP/Koscheck 'Fight of the Night' at +550 to win 0.55 units (plus stake);



0.2 units on McCorkle 'Submission of the Night' at +1600 to win 3.2 units (plus stake);

0.3 units on GSP 'Submission of the Night' at +700 to win 2.1 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Struve 'Submission of the Night' at +900 to win 0.9 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Dan Miller 'Submission of the Night' at +1200 to win 1.2 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Stevenson 'Submission of the Night' at +1600 to win 1.6 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Hazelett 'Submission of the Night' at +900 to win 0.9 units (plus stake);

0.2 units on Oliveira 'Submission of the Night' at +1100 to win 2.2 units (plus stake);

0.025 units on Natal 'Submission of the Night' at +2800 to win 0.7 units (plus stake);



0.2 units on McCorkle 'KO of the Night' at +1400 to win 2.8 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Thiago Alves 'KO of the Night' at +450 to win 0.45 units (plus stake);

0.05 units on Makdessi 'KO of the Night' at +2200 to win 1.1 units (plus stake);

0.025 units on Struve 'KO of the Night' at +900 to win 0.225 units (plus stake);

0.02 units on Pierson 'KO of the Night' at +3000 to win 0.6 units (plus stake);

20 units on Oliveira at -130 to win 15.385 units (plus stake);

15.3 units on J.Miller at +153 to win 23.474 units (plus stake).

Total stake: 52.889 units

Total return: 57.524 units

Profit: +4.635 units

[Vaughany]

K1 Grand Prix Profit: +1.1 units

UFC 124 Profit: +4.635 units

Total Profit since August 26th: +68.765 units

[Eccocide]

Nice job V. Those miracle bets are making you some good profit lol.

[Vaughany]

Nice job V. Those miracle bets are making you some good profit lol.

Gd stuff too Ecco, wish I'd had more faith in Pierson, especially at the +275 that I got him at.

ha yeah that last minute arb of Oliveira at -130 and Miller at +153 helped a lot...would of only made 1 unit without that. Similarly to you the exotic props I had didnt pay off and cost me some profit, defintely wont be having as many again in future! Glad I resisted putting a unit or more on McCorkle as well, he clearly isnt UFC level as u rightly pointed out in your thread!

Cant wait for 125, some great potential to make decent profit off that card. Stungun, Stann, Vera, Brad Tavares, Guida by decision all great plays IMO.

[brooks85]

good work on the night and at K1, you see that new overeem episode?

[Vaughany]

good work on the night and at K1, you see that new overeem episode?

Cheer sir, congrats to u too...smashed the contest big time! Yeah, is the latest one with the footage of his crazy sparring with Spong back in the day at the start? That was an awesome episode, put together really well.

[brooks85]

yeah thats the one, that intro with spong was sweet

[Vaughany]

UFC 124 plays review:


Total stake: 52.889 units

Total return: 57.524 units

Profit: +4.635 units

K1 Grand Prix Profit: +1.1 units

UFC 124 Profit: +4.635 units

Total Profit since August 26th: +68.765 units

Was pretty hungover this morning which must of effected my ability to calculate my results as I actually made a bit more on 124 than I thought. So here are my actual amended results:

Total stake for UFC124: 52.389 units

Total return: 57.524 units

Profit: +5.135 units



K1 Grand Prix Profit: +1.1 units

UFC 124 Profit: +5.135 units

Total Profit since August 26th: +69.265 units

[Vaughany]

Dude I was going to do proper write up but I sick as a dog. I think I got the swine aids.

Bocek by decision but watch out for mclovin's stand up striking.

Go ginger balls.

ha no problem man...swine aids is a bitch!

Ginger balls did indeed pull it off but I didnt expect him to finish Hazelett like that, I was confident he'd have superior grappling but thought McLovin would at least be able to defend any sub attempts and just lose 3 10-9 rounds. Still made me 2.5 units so all good . I think Bocek vs Sotiropolous would be a great fight, and J.Miller vs Sherk. Think they'll do Danzig vs Oliveira next as well.

[ddream1]

well done sir

[Vaughany]

UFC 125 plays so far:

3 units on Gomi at +150 to win 4.5 units (plus stake);

1 unit on Stann at +160 to win 1.6 units (plus stake).

[Chairib]

ha no problem man...swine aids is a bitch!

Ginger balls did indeed pull it off but I didnt expect him to finish Hazelett like that, I was confident he'd have superior grappling but thought McLovin would at least be able to defend any sub attempts and just lose 3 10-9 rounds. Still made me 2.5 units so all good . I think Bocek vs Sotiropolous would be a great fight, and J.Miller vs Sherk. Think they'll do Danzig vs Oliveira next as well.

Finally got to watch Bocek fight and he absolutely schooled Mclovin on the ground. It wasn't even funny just how out classed he was when it hit the mat. I was kind of shocked how easily he was able to pass the rubber guard and goto full mount.

[BIGDAY]

UFC 125 plays so far:

3 units on Gomi at +150 to win 4.5 units (plus stake);

1 unit on Stann at +160 to win 1.6 units (plus stake).

I'm on an early 1.5 units on Gomi as well.

[lasker]

Was it PaddyPower that gave you +150 for Gomi? Pinny's +140 was the highest I saw available yesterday.

[Vaughany]

Was it PaddyPower that gave you +150 for Gomi? Pinny's +140 was the highest I saw available yesterday.

It was WilliamHill I believe, I'm signed up to so many now that it's difficult to remember! Think they've still got it at +150.

[lasker]

Dear President Obama,

European books continue to humiliate the ones available for Americans. This troubling issue will become an embarrassment for your legacy unless you act soon. Do something, dammit! Even a blind man can see that if you want to get re-elected, you need to invade Costa Rica, take over their bookies, and deliver improved betting lines for all American citizens! Oh, and legalize sports betting while you're at it.

And I'm not even betting Gomi +150, Barack. I'm patriotically backing Guida, the most noble winner of the Tequila CAZADORES® Spirit Award, the honorable poster-boy of American values and clean-cut good looks, even though most sharp bettors think it's a stupid bet. I am fighting for justice. I am fighting for America.

Sincerely,

Lasker, DGE (Degenerate Gambler Extraordinaire)

[Vaughany]

Dear President Obama,

European books continue to humiliate the ones available for Americans. This troubling issue will become an embarrassment for your legacy unless you act soon. Do something, dammit! Even a blind man can see that if you want to get re-elected, you need to invade Costa Rica, take over their bookies, and deliver improved betting lines for all American citizens! Oh, and legalize sports betting while you're at it.

And I'm not even betting Gomi +150, Barack. I'm patriotically backing Guida, the most noble winner of the Tequila CAZADORES® Spirit Award, the honorable poster-boy of American values and clean-cut good looks, even though most sharp bettors think it's a stupid bet. I am fighting for justice. I am fighting for America.

Sincerely,

Lasker, DGE (Degenerate Gambler Extraordinaire)

I think Mr Obama would be partial to a play on Guida by decision myself!

[Vaughany]

WEC 53 Plays:

0.25 units on Palaszewski/Shalorus Over 2.5 rounds at +116 to win 0.29 units (plus stake);

0.25 units on Cerrone/Horodecki Over 2.5 rounds at +116 to win 0.29 units (plus stake).

Only a couple of small plays for me as Im saving it all for UFC 125! I liked Cariaso a lot at +275 but hesitated and now it's down to +225 or something. Looks like Im on my lonesome in thinking Cerrone/Horodecki will go over 2.5! Could be horribly wrong but I dont think Cerrone has serious KO power and Horodecki has a decent chin. Cowboy doesn't tend to throw vicious aggressive KO leg kicks, he sort of keeps a vertical stance and keeps distance when throwing leg kicks therefore has less power but lowers the risk of getting countered. Cerrone tends to finish fights when he's facing guys who take the fight to the ground (I think?) through triangles but Horodecki will want to keep this standing so wont initiative any takedowns. Of course Cerrone may use his new found wrestling ability that he displayed against Varner to take Horodecki down and submit him from there but Id like to think that Cerrone's ego will lead to him keeping this standing and bangin with Horodecki. As I say I could be horribly wrong hence why the very small play! Good luck all.

[stefan084]

Dear President Obama,

European books continue to humiliate the ones available for Americans. This troubling issue will become an embarrassment for your legacy unless you act soon. Do something, dammit! Even a blind man can see that if you want to get re-elected, you need to invade Costa Rica, take over their bookies, and deliver improved betting lines for all American citizens! Oh, and legalize sports betting while you're at it.

And I'm not even betting Gomi +150, Barack. I'm patriotically backing Guida, the most noble winner of the Tequila CAZADORES® Spirit Award, the honorable poster-boy of American values and clean-cut good looks, even though most sharp bettors think it's a stupid bet. I am fighting for justice. I am fighting for America.

Sincerely,

Lasker, DGE (Degenerate Gambler Extraordinaire)

i would sign this petition--our books suck (i do like 5 dimes though)

[Vaughany]

Additional WEC 53 Plays:

1.1 units on Jorgensen at +211 to win 2.321 units (plus stake);

1.5 units on Cruz/Jorgensen Over 4.5 rounds at -134 to win 1.119 units (plus stake).

[lasker]

GL Vaughany

[terpkeg]

Additional WEC 53 Plays:

1.1 units on Jorgensen at +211 to win 2.321 units (plus stake);

1.5 units on Cruz/Jorgensen Over 4.5 rounds at -134 to win 1.119 units (plus stake).

I like them both. I have Jorgensen +210 .47/1 and by Dec +341 .22/.75.

[Vaughany]

I like them both. I have Jorgensen +210 .47/1 and by Dec +341 .22/.75.

Yee I think Cruz wins this by decision but the odds on Jorgensen are too good to resist!

[Vaughany]

GL Vaughany

Cheers...BOL to u 2!

[Vaughany]

WEC 53 plays review:

0.25 units on Palaszewski/Shalorus Over 2.5 rounds at +116 to win 0.29 units (plus stake);

0.25 units on Cerrone/Horodecki Over 2.5 rounds at +116 to win 0.29 units (plus stake);

Horodecki taking Cerrone down and just asking for a triangle!

1.1 units on Jorgensen at +211 to win 2.321 units (plus stake);

1.5 units on Cruz/Jorgensen Over 4.5 rounds at -134 to win 1.119 units (plus stake).

Total stake: 3.1 units

Total return: 3.159 units

Profit: +0.059 units

Total Profit since August 26th: +69.324 units

[RaiderNation MMA]

nice...but i wud not have bet against cruz

[Vaughany]

nice...but i wud not have bet against cruz

Twas purely a value minimal risk play. I capped Jorgensen at +200 so when it went to +211 I had to take it. Was highly unlikely that Cruz could finish Jorgensen tho so Over 4.5 rounds was perfect hedge to significantly reduce the risk of the Jorgensen play.

[Vaughany]

UFC 126 Play:

1.5 units on Bader at +285 to win 4.275 units (plus stake).

[westerner]

bader is free fuckin money

[Mr.Kitty]

Dident quite expect Jones to be such a heavy favorite, Baders no joke. Definitely value at nearly +300. Jon Jones is one of my favorite fighters, you could tell he was something special right from the beginning. He is the future champ in my eyes, we will see.

[Vaughany]

Bader is up to +303 now on Pinnacle, perhaps I should of waited . I took the +285 because it had reached that on sportbet and 5dimes but then gone back down to +250 so I thought if anything it would follow that pattern on pinnacle and go down to +265 or something. Jones should win this but I capped Bader at +200. Bader may be able to keep it standing and land one of his wild over-hand rights, we havnt seen Jones' chin tested yet so you never know!

[Poppa Catfish]

Or maybe survive the first couple of rounds and finish him in the third after Bones gasses. These numbers are insane, you should double check and make sure its not James Toney vs Jon Jones

[Vaughany]

Or maybe survive the first couple of rounds and finish him in the third after Bones gasses. These numbers are insane, you should double check and make sure its not James Toney vs Jon Jones

haha yeah, +309 on pinnacle now. Cardio could end up being the deciding factor, I imagine that Bader is working particularly hard on his cardio for this one. Will be very interesting to see what Bones' takedown defence and bottom game is like if Bader does get a takedown or takedown attempt. Im not sure anybody other than Jake O'Brien (who failed) has attempted to take Bones' down? I remember that O'Brien did tag Bones with a left hook early in the second round so it's not ridiculous to suggest that Bader catches Bones.

[omalley21]

Bader needs to take him down and keep him there to win.