I agree, Hominick has an underrated ground game and you may have been right to take a stab at it at those odds. Does paddypower allow you to include MMA prop bets in parlays?
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No unfortuntely not, most the other books do tho like Skybet but then they dont have as good odds as Paddy.Comment -
V - I know your Beltran by sub bet is based on value, but strictly picking a winner in this fight how do you see it going? I love Barry on the feet as I think he's just far too skilled and has at least equal power. I've seen Beltran get early takedowns in some of his past fights, but he's real sloppy with it, and I wonder if Barry can find a good enough range to get his licks in and avoid the takedowns. He has to feel confident on the feet and know that he must avoid the ground. Coming off a loss, I would hope he's prepared for that. I'm considering a good sized play on Barry and a small dabble on the Beltran by sub prop.Comment -
I imagine Barry has been working particularly hard on his wrestling and BJJ since the Cro-Cop fight. Obviously he isnt going to be able to get to a high-level or either aspect in that time but it may be enough to negate what Beltran offers. Barry has one of the top 5 camps behind him in Roufuss MMA IMO and I feel that he must be developing his his grappling game (and of course striking) everyday when he's training with guys like Pettis and Askren. Add the fact that Beltran seems intent on keeping the fight standing in order to entertain the troops, it would seem that the likelyhood of it going to the ground is unlikely unless Beltran drops Barry with a punch (which isnt entirely out of the question) as so far we havnt seen Barry in a stand-up 'brawl'. His stand-up fights with Cro-Cop and Hardonk were more technical and this seems to suit Barry's style, while Beltran is undoubtely going to be more aggressive and less technical than Hardonk or Cro-Cop - basically more like a brawler and I should think will look to close in and pressure Barry against the cage and use dirty boxing more (that way he negates the threat of Barry's leg kicks and can tire Barry out - build up lactic acid a la GSP on BJ Penn style!) rather than try an elusive stand-up strategy based on footwork and head movement. If Beltran does try the latter than I would expect him to inevitably take a number of Barry's brutal low kicks. From what I've seen Barry is equally adept at delivering hard kicks with either his left or right leg so makes the aim of circling away from Barry's perceived danger side futile! Furthermore, Im not convinced that Beltran could even pull of a fleet-of-foot evasive strategy for three rounds, he doesnt seem to have the best footwork! I was actually expecting Beltran to be more like a +250 underdog due to the Barry hype and would of taken that. I've got Barry in a parlay and would consider taking the prop of Barry by TKO/KO at reasonable odds but it's Evens on paddypower which im not feeling due to Beltran's toughness (he's yet to be TKO'd or KO'd in his career) and due to the aformentioend possibility that he utilises an effective strategy and doesnt just sit there allowing Barry to pick him apart. The odds for the TKO/KO prop will probably not be much better on bookmaker or 5dimes/sportbet either - +150 at best I guess. Overall though, if I had to pick a winner of course I'd pick Barry, and although -200 doesnt seem like bad value, Im always hesitant to play a fighter straight-up at those sort of odds when they are as one-dimensional as Hype or Die!Originally posted by ShagdogyComment -
<Here is some incentive for Mr.Hominick http://mmajunkie.com/news/22059/homi...t-night-23.mmaOriginally posted by VaughanyComment -
ha yeah hopefully he is the most motivated he's ever been now! I wouldnt be surprised now if Roop goes and throws a spanner in to the works! Or Hominick goes and dominates for three rounds but breaks his hand again and is out for months!Originally posted by Mr.KittyComment -
More UFC 126 Plays:
Would of put a couple more units on each of these if limits wern't in place:
0.9 units on Yamamoto/MightyMouse! to go the Distance at +137.5 to win 1.238 units (plus stake);
0.54 units on Miguel Torres by decision at +250 to win 1.35 units (plus stake).Comment -
According to the fight card at UFC.com Johnson is fighting Mike Guymon.Originally posted by VaughanyComment -
Yee that's DaMarques Johnson who's fighting Guymon at Fight for the Troops 2 Urge. Yamamoto is fighting Demetrious Johnson at 126. I shall edit it for clarity!Comment -
LOL my bad. No wonder I couldn't find any news about it.Comment -
Fight for the Troops 2 Play:
1.746 units on C.Miller/Wiman to decision at -137.5 to win 1.27 units.
Some early plays for future events:
1.871 units on Nogueira/Ortiz to decision at -150 to win 1.247 units;
1 unit on Machida by TKO/KO at +125 to win 1.25 units;
1 unit on GSP by decision at +120 to win 1.2 units.Comment -
I like the Machida by KO play. I'm going to hop all over that! I really think he is going to put Handy to sleep in this one.Originally posted by VaughanyComment -
Summary of Fight for the Troops 2 Plays so far:
2.5 units on Hominick at -224 to win 1.116 units (plus stake);
0.2 units on Hominick by Submission at +400 to win 0.8 units (plus stake);
1 unit on Wiman at +190 to win 1.9 units (plus stake);
1.746 units on C.Miller/Wiman to decision at -137.5 to win 1.27 units (plus stake);
0.211 units on Wiman by KO at +750 to win 1.582 units (plus stake);
0.4 units on Mitrione by Decision at +333 to win 1.333 units (plus stake);
0.05 units on Beltran by Submission at +1400 to win 0.7 units (plus stake);
Parlay: 0.837 units on Mitrione, Barry, Hominick, & Ellenberger to win 2.17 units (plus stake).Comment -
i was impressed by roop`s win over korean zombie...he`s improving...just seems like homonick is a rising star...on another level...can`t think of many guys that become more impressive with every fight....Originally posted by Vaughany
i`ve become a sort of mitrione admirer...i was thinking(hoping) that we might continue to get favorable odds on the guy for another fight or two...
i was wrong.... ..i was very diappointed seeing him open as such a prohibitive fave here
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barry is a conundrum...love those kicks...he can disable guys quickly...just don`t trust him vs very durable opposition....i expect him to win here...maybe parlay material...but he scares me...
keep up the great work,v...you are one of our linchpins here..one of our "go to" guys....
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Cheers Rocky, much appreciated!Originally posted by rocky mattiolii was impressed by roop`s win over korean zombie...he`s improving...just seems like homonick is a rising star...on another level...can`t think of many guys that become more impressive with every fight....
i`ve become a sort of mitrione admirer...i was thinking(hoping) that we might continue to get favorable odds on the guy for another fight or two...
i was wrong.... ..i was very diappointed seeing him open as such a prohibitive fave here...
barry is a conundrum...love those kicks...he can disable guys quickly...just don`t trust him vs very durable opposition....i expect him to win here...maybe parlay material...but he scares me...
keep up the great work,v...you are one of our linchpins here..one of our "go to" guys....
Roop has improved a lot over the last 24 months, however, I feel that the facts are that he was the last pick on TUF amonst, IMO, an average group of lightweight fighters. He scraped a win against Dave Kaplan who was a mediocre fighter and then lost to Nelson who isnt impressive either. Of course he is now at a lower weight division where he has a considerable size and reach advantage, but Im just not convinced that this can bridge the gap in technical ability that is between him and the better guys at bantamweight and featherweight such as Wineland (who schooled him) and Hominick. I cant help but imagine that if Hominick had of been on that TUF he'd of tooled with the likes Roop!
Hague and Beltran are durable dudes and I could see one of those two fights going to decision. I've got Mitrione by decision already and may add Barry by decision as well. Can get it at +350 on paddy but going to wait and see if I can get it at +400 elsewhere before pulling the trigger.Comment -
I will most likely be on Hague/Mitrione under 2.5 rounds. These are 2 big dudes with power who are both sloppy strikers. I don't think either of them has particularly good defense and they both let their hands hang once they tire after a round. Mitrione was rocked a couple times vs. Beltran as was Hague and Beltran doesn't have devastating KO power. Hague has been beaten down vs. Barry, Beltran and against Zak Jensen outside of the UFC. That fight was close to being stopped before he was able to luckily get back to his feet and hit a big knee to drop Jensen. He's pretty durable but against a fellow 260+ fighter, I can see him getting finished. And I wouldn't put it past Hague to finish Mitrione. The guy hits very hard. The punch he landed on Wiuff in his most recent fight didnt even look like it landed flush and Wiuff crumbled. Both guys like to get in wild exchanges and I think one will have their lights turned out.Originally posted by VaughanyComment -
Good bets. Im still concerned Barry has zero ground game and Beltran will be determined to get takedowns(he went for them versus Houston Alexander and Meat. He'll know he has no business standing with Barry). Same applies with Meat vs Hague. Mitrione has garbage takedown defense. Not sure about Hague's takedowns though. Both Meat and Barry should win impressively, but I stay away.
I'm gonna follow on the Hominick play over Roop. I wanted to slash Roop's throat for the way he ruined my parlay with KZ on it. I hope he gets slaughtered. Hominick is a legit striker, so I don't see Roop pulling off that hit and move bullshit that he did on KZ, who seemed unmotivated.Comment -
Very true, I've only just watched the Jensen fight and you're right he was gettin beat early on. And it's true that they dont exactly have the best defence. Would of been all over the -120 odds that came out on 5dimes/Sportbet for the fight to not go the distance, ridiculous oddsOriginally posted by Eccocide Will have to wait and see what the under on Pinnacle comes out at
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Yeah against most heavyweights Barry would be in big trouble on the ground but with Beltran he may have been able to bridge the gap enough to survive there with Beltran. KZ I think may have been caught up in the whole post-Garcia hype and adulation and was looking for another, and perhaps, expecting another drawn out exciting FOTN brawl with Roop. He was less technical than he has been in the past and kept his hands low. Hominick wont make the same mistake.Originally posted by koscheckbabyComment -
Parlay: 1 unit on Hominick by decision, Not Guillard by submission, Not Mitrione by submission, Not Wiman by submission, & not Barry by submission to win 1.513 units (plus stake);
Parlay: 0.315 units on Hominick/Roop to decision, Mitrione/Hague to not go to decision, Diaz, Overeem, & Fitch to win 1.908 units (plus stake).Comment -
I followed you on the Barry and Hominick plays. I have concerns with Roop and Beltran utilizing takedowns to win, but you're a better fight picker than me. Considering the drastic talent difference in the standup, Hominick and Barry still have value here. Beltran has nothing for Barry standing and is a super easy matchup for him if he stands. Roop may give problems to Hominick with his reach though. But still, Hominick is a top level striker and Roop just started becoming good at striking. Good luck.
From what you've seen, do you think Roop can win this via takedowns? That's my main concern of the two fights.Comment -
From what I've read and seen in interviews Hominick has been working hard on his wrestling at Brock University along side Sean Pierson who is one of the best wrestlers in Canada. Moreover, Roop doesnt exactly have an illustrious wrestling background. If he had a wrestling background such as even being a Div 2 qualifier or decent college level wrestler I'd be concerned, but even though he showed he has takedowns against the likes of Garcia and Polakowski on TUF, this doesnt mean he's gonna be able to do it against Hominick. Firstly, as we know, Garcia is aggressive, wild and wide-open meaning that most WEC/UFC level guys should be able to take him down. Also he tried to choke out Roop twice with a guillotine after he was taken down so he may have even been letting Roop take him down just so that he could go for the guillotine. As far as I can remember Garcia got back to his feet pretty easily after Roop took him down and after the the second guillotine attempt Roop even stood back up which suggested he wasnt confident in keeping the fight on the ground. Moreover, Roop's takedown defence isnt great in itself, Dave Kaplan was able to take him down in their fight. I dont foresee Hominick having any issues getting back to his feet if Roop does take him down or even reversing Roop on the ground and submitting him. Of course with the dodgy judges anything is possible and they might give Roop a decision if Hominick doesnt finish him. Afterall, Hominick only got a split-decision against Garcia even tho he took no more than a couple of leg kicks and a couple of grazing punches in 3 rounds! So with this in mind it might be worth included the fight to go to decision either as a hedge or within a couple of parlays.Originally posted by koscheckbabyComment -
0.5 units on Willamy Freire at -106 to win 0.472 units (plus stake).Comment -
curious to see if roop is as good as many seem to think....the height is a real issue...but i`m not sure whether exciting fights vs garcia and k.z. means he beats a guy like hominick...
he won`t be the first to fool people by being involved in and exciting exciting fight with leonard garcia...
korean zombie fooled quite a few off an exciting fight with garcia..and turned out to be another garcia clone...one dimensional with lousy defense...this kind of kamikaze style works with some...but in the ufc,it shouldn`t work for too long(unless the judges keep crediting guys for spasms of unproductive activity over guys that pick their spots and actually land the punches that they throw)
other than garcia and k.z.,i see nothing on roop`s record that makes me think he beats an experienced,well rounded guy like hominick...
but......every day is "anything can happen" day in mma...
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Originally posted by rocky mattiolicurious to see if roop is as good as many seem to think....the height is a real issue...but i`m not sure whether exciting fights vs garcia and k.z. means he beats a guy like hominick...
he won`t be the first to fool people by being involved in and exciting exciting fight with leonard garcia...
korean zombie fooled quite a few off an exciting fight with garcia..and turned out to be another garcia clone...one dimensional with lousy defense...this kind of kamikaze style works with some...but in the ufc,it shouldn`t work for too long(unless the judges keep crediting guys for spasms of unproductive activity over guys that pick their spots and actually land the punches that they throw)
other than garcia and k.z.,i see nothing on roop`s record that makes me think he beats an experienced,well rounded guy like hominick...
but......every day is "anything can happen" day in mma...
Hit the nail on the head there Rocky.
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gl vaug!!Comment -
Like the Freire pick for exactly the units you put on it. Maybe Lowe can grind out a decision on him, maybe. Every other outcome ends up with Willamy's hand being raised.Originally posted by VaughanyComment -
dude u make wayyyy too many betsOriginally posted by VaughanyComment -
Well what can as I say Mr. Pride...I just loves me some 'CAN' bets!Originally posted by Pride>UFCComment -
0.1 units on Guymon by decision at +500 to win 0.5 units (plus stake);
0.05 units on Damarques Johnson by submission at +350 to win 0.175 units (plus stake);
0.1 units on Edwards by TKO/KO at +400 to win 0.4 units (plus stake);
0.05 units on McKenzie by submission at +333 to win 0.167 units (plus stake).Comment -
I agree with P>U, and dude what's worse is it's causing you to make wayyyyy too much $$.Originally posted by Pride>UFCComment -
I dont know what Paddypower have against Kyle Noke (maybe they're anti-Australian?!) but they brought him out as the dog once again (as they did against Kimmons)!...
5.55 units (max bet allowed unfortunatley) on Noke at +125 to win 6.944 units (plus stake).
Will arb this with Camozzi towards end of February before the event. Im thinking the Noke line of -166 on Pinnacle should get some action which in turn should improve the current +150 Camozzi line. Hopefully will get him at +160 to +175 range by fight time.
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WTF!!! why do I always miss when the bookmaker release their odds. Now paddy has Noke at -175, would have loved to get him at +125, this makes me ******* sick as a mofoOriginally posted by VaughanyI dont know what Paddypower have against Kyle Noke (maybe they're anti-Australian?!) but they brought him out as the dog once again (as they did against Kimmons)!... 5.55 units (max bet allowed unfortunatley) on Noke at +125 to win 6.944 units (plus stake). Will arb this with Camozzi towards end of February before the event. Im thinking the Noke line of -166 on Pinnacle should get some action which in turn should improve the current +150 Camozzi line. Hopefully will get him at +160 to +175 range by fight time.
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ha sorry bro, they changed it to -175 about 5 minutes after I placed my bet! Pays to be sharp with paddy and check at least 5 times a day!Originally posted by Mr.KittyWTF!!! why do I always miss when the bookmaker release their odds. Now paddy has Noke at -175, would have loved to get him at +125, this makes me ******* sick as a mofoComment -
yea i'm sure you're just rolling in millions after betting 50 cents each on these prop betsOriginally posted by laskerComment
