Vaughany's MMA Picks...

Vaughany · 02-03-11, 02:09 PM

Originally posted by xelance

damn...no wonder its guaranteed profit. What book is that? Bookmaker had them at +115 OV and -145 UN...not exactly the same odds hahaha

It's an arb off two different books (Pinnacle and Paddypower).

xelance · 02-03-11, 02:11 PM

got ya, nice man...

Vaughany · 02-03-11, 05:43 PM

Parlay: 1.549 units on Ellenberger, Cerrone/Kelly Over 1.5 Rnds, Not Bader by Submission, & Not Banuelos by Submission to win 1.921 units (plus stake).

Vaughany · 02-03-11, 06:20 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Tried ringing Paddypower to place a bigger bet for this one but they're sticking firm with the limits

1.107 units on Mendes by decision at +120 to win 1.328 units (plus stake);

1.788 units on Mendes/Omigawa to decision at -137.5 to win 1.3 units (plus stake).

Additional play on Mendes by decision:

2 units on Mendes by decision at +110 to win 2.2 units (plus stake).

Vaughany · 02-04-11, 06:19 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

2.195 units on Griffin/Franklin to decision at +120 to win 2.634 units (plus stake);

0.43 units on Griffin/Franklin to decision at Evens to win 0.43 units (plus stake);

Hedging my Griffin/Franklin to decision plays with:

0.169 units on Franklin KO of the Night at +1300 to win 2.197 units (plus stake).

big cheyo · 02-04-11, 06:12 PM

no plays on the silva fight ?

Vaughany · 02-04-11, 06:21 PM

Originally posted by big cheyo

no plays on the silva fight ?

Yep see previous page bro! A guaranteed profit arb on the over 2.5 and under 2.5 and 2 units on Anderson by TKO/KO at +200.

Vaughany · 02-05-11, 04:35 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

5 units on Mighty Mouse at +120 to win 6 units (plus stake).

I will be looking to arb this with Yamamoto at -109 or better on Pinnacle. I think based on the line movement that there's a chance that Might Mouse ends up as favourite or Yamamoto at least improves from -109 to Evens.

5.3 units on Kid Yamamoto at -105 to win 5.048 units (plus stake).

Profit of 0.7 units if Mighty Mouse wins; or profit of 0.048 units if Kid Yama wins.

Vaughany · 02-05-11, 01:45 PM

0.555 units on Franklin/Griffin FOTN at +375 to win 2.063 units (plus stake);

0.2 units on A.Silva/Belfort FOTN at +500 to win 1 units (plus stake);

0.12 units on Cerrone/Kelly FOTN at +700 to win 0.84 units (plus stake);

0.08 units on Mighty Mouse/Kid Yamamoto FOTN at +1100 to win 0.88 units (plus stake).

Vaughany · 02-05-11, 02:31 PM

Another arb for tonight:

24 units on Ellenberger/Rocha to go to decision at +333 to win 80 units (plus stake);

60 units on Ellenberger/Rocha to not go to decision at -250 to win 24 units (plus stake);

So at the moment if fight goes to decision I'll make 20 units profit and if it doesn't go to decision I'll have my overall stake of 84 units returned. Obviously the likelyhood is the fight ends inside the distance so have added:

9 units on Ellenberger by TKO/KO at +110 to win 9.9 units (plus stake);

0.6 units on Rocha Submission of the Night at +1400 to win 8.4 units (plus stake).

So if Ellenberger wins by Submission or Rocha wins by TKO/KO I'm screwed!

Vaughany · 02-05-11, 03:01 PM

0.1 units on Jon Jones Submission of the Night at +2100 to win 2.1 units (plus stake);

0.046 units on Cerrone Submission of the Night at +1000 to win 0.46 units (plus stake).

Vaughany · 02-05-11, 03:17 PM

Final Summary of UFC126 Plays:

Parlay: 0.837 units on Mitrione, Barry, Hominick, & Ellenberger to win 2.17 units (plus stake);

18.4 units on Anderson Silva/Belfort Over 2.5 Rnds at +121 to win 22.264 units (plus stake);

19.38 units on Anderson Silva/Belfort Under 2.5 Rnds at +110 to win 21.318 units (plus stake);

2 units on Anderson Silva by TKO/KO at +200 to win 4 units (plus stake);

24 units on Ellenberger/Rocha to go to decision at +333 to win 80 units (plus stake);

60 units on Ellenberger/Rocha to not go to decision at -250 to win 24 units (plus stake);

9 units on Ellenberger by TKO/KO at +110 to win 9.9 units (plus stake);

0.6 units on Rocha Submission of the Night at +1400 to win 8.4 units (plus stake);

6 units on Romero at +115 to win 6.9 units (plus stake);

5 units on Mighty Mouse at +120 to win 6 units (plus stake);

5.3 units on Kid Yamamoto at -105 to win 5.048 units (plus stake);

0.9 units on Yamamoto/MightyMouse! to go the Distance at +137.5 to win 1.238 units (plus stake);

0.54 units on Miguel Torres by decision at +250 to win 1.35 units (plus stake);

2.195 units on Griffin/Franklin to decision at +120 to win 2.634 units (plus stake);

0.43 units on Griffin/Franklin to decision at Evens to win 0.43 units (plus stake);

0.169 units on Franklin KO of the Night at +1300 to win 2.197 units (plus stake);

0.555 units on Franklin/Griffin FOTN at +375 to win 2.063 units (plus stake);

1.5 units on Bader at +285 to win 4.275 units (plus stake);

0.5 units on Jon Jones by decision at +400 to win 2 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Jon Jones Submission of the Night at +2100 to win 2.1 units (plus stake);

0.596 units on Cerrone by decision at +225 to win 1.341 units (plus stake);

0.12 units on Cerrone/Kelly FOTN at +700 to win 0.84 units (plus stake);

0.046 units on Cerrone Submission of the Night at +1000 to win 0.46 units (plus stake);

1.107 units on Mendes by decision at +120 to win 1.328 units (plus stake);

2 units on Mendes by decision at +110 to win 2.2 units (plus stake);

1.788 units on Mendes/Omigawa to decision at -137.5 to win 1.3 units (plus stake);

0.05 units on Pierce by submission at +1000 to win 0.5 units (plus stake);

Parlay: 1.549 units on Ellenberger, Cerrone/Kelly Over 1.5 Rnds, Not Bader by Submission, & Not Banuelos by Submission to win 1.921 units (plus stake);

0.2 units on A.Silva/Belfort FOTN at +500 to win 1 units (plus stake);

0.08 units on Mighty Mouse/Kid Yamamoto FOTN at +1100 to win 0.88 units (plus stake).

Going in to the event on -1.256 as Coy screwed the following parlay:

Parlay: 1.256 units on Coy, Diaz, & Anderson Silva to win 1.843 units (plus stake).

Best of luck all

Poppa Catfish · 02-05-11, 03:20 PM

reads like war and peace

Shagdogy · 02-05-11, 03:20 PM

Damn V. I donno how you keep track of it all. Good luck!

Educ8d Degener8 · 02-05-11, 03:21 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

...

0.08 units on Mighty Mouse/Kid Yamamoto FOTN at +1100 to win 0.88 units (plus stake).

Holy sh*tballs! That prop is only +350 at 5dimes. I def like it at +1100...

Vaughany · 02-05-11, 03:24 PM

Ha yeah Im afraid I cant even be ****** to try and organise them in to any sort of logical order! All I know is I'll probably have the bank tryin to contact me tomorrow asking why there has been so many deposits over the last 24 hours in to random betting accounts!

Vaughany · 02-05-11, 03:26 PM

Originally posted by Educ8d Degener8

Holy sh*tballs! That prop is only +350 at 5dimes. I def like it at +1100...

ha yeah I noticed that! If it was on the main card or even the Spike card I'd put a lot more on it, but I just dont see how one of the main card fights or at least the Cerrone fight doesn't get FOTN.

Shagdogy · 02-05-11, 03:52 PM

As far as undercard fights go, I like Johnson/Yamamoto way more than Cerrone/Kelly for FOTN. Cerrone is FOTN material, but Kelly isn't IMO. At least they'll be showing that one on facebook. Good luck!

lasker · 02-05-11, 03:55 PM

Like Franklin/Griffin to dec, I really think that hits tonight and you got it at a great price. Amazing line on Mighty Mouse/Kid FOTN too! GL Vaugh

Educ8d Degener8 · 02-05-11, 04:16 PM

I also like KID - Demetrious for FoTN, especially at that price. Given the fans clamoring to get KID's fight shown, Dana may have a subconscious bias toward KID. But probably not enough bias to overpower his bias for his company men Forrest and Rich ;p

But at +1100, well worth a play no doubt

Vaughany · 02-05-11, 04:19 PM

Originally posted by Educ8d Degener8

I also like KID - Demetrious for FoTN, especially at that price. Given the fans clamoring to get KID's fight shown, Dana may have a subconscious bias toward KID. But probably not enough bias to overpower his bias for his company men Forrest and Rich ;p

But at +1100, well worth a play no doubt

Yeah but I could of actually got it at +1400 on WilliamHill but didnt really wanna deposit more money just for tht, it's more as just a hedge for the Silva/Belfort and Franklin/Griffin FOTN plays anyway...I'm definitely expecting Franklin/Griffin to get it tho.

Educ8d Degener8 · 02-05-11, 04:29 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Yeah but I could of actually got it at +1400 on WilliamHill but didnt really wanna deposit more money just for tht, it's more as just a hedge for the Silva/Belfort and Franklin/Griffin FOTN plays anyway...I'm definitely expecting Franklin/Griffin to get it tho.

Yeah, that fight seems like one of those things that after the event is over and they've won FoTN, we'll be kicking ourselves for not loading up on it. I mean, Dana loves those guys and they both bring a good game -- The check is probably already written, and if another fight is a sick fight, Dana will probably just pass out 2 FoTN as he as done from time to time...

Vaughany · 02-05-11, 04:34 PM

Originally posted by Educ8d Degener8

Yeah, that fight seems like one of those things that after the event is over and they've won FoTN, we'll be kicking ourselves for not loading up on it. I mean, Dana loves those guys and they both bring a good game -- The check is probably already written, and if another fight is a sick fight, Dana will probably just pass out 2 FoTN as he as done from time to time...

Yep spot on Edu! I wouldnt be surprised to see double FOTN's or double KOTN's/SOTN's again for this event.

mjag21 · 02-05-11, 08:03 PM

vaughany what are your top 3 picks tonite?

Vaughany · 02-05-11, 08:09 PM

Originally posted by mjag21

vaughany what are your top 3 picks tonite?

Anderson Silva TKO/KO, Franklin/Griffin to decision, and Mendes by decision...but I've got off to a horrible start with Romero so I may be fade material tonight!

Poppa Catfish · 02-05-11, 08:19 PM

You are probably happy that they are getting all of these stoppages out of the system

Vaughany · 02-05-11, 08:20 PM

ha yeah, hopefully this next facebook fight will be first of many decisions!

Poppa Catfish · 02-05-11, 08:22 PM

I've got this funny, Canderson by decision feeling Vaughany. I might have enough surplus money to blow on my gut

xelance · 02-05-11, 08:22 PM

well those 3 definitely are not fight of the night material...so we take those out of the equation now

Vaughany · 02-05-11, 08:25 PM

Originally posted by Poppa Catfish

I've got this funny, Canderson by decision feeling Vaughany. I might have enough surplus money to blow on my gut

ha I wouldn't be surprised at all, may well be worth a pop!

ddream1 · 02-06-11, 12:59 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Anderson Silva TKO/KO, Franklin/Griffin to decision, and Mendes by decision...but I've got off to a horrible start with Romero so I may be fade material tonight!

so u list the top 3 plays and they are all easy money, ur an animal good sir.

Vaughany · 02-06-11, 01:15 AM

Originally posted by ddream1

so u list the top 3 plays and they are all easy money, ur an animal good sir.

Thank you Squire! Looks like everybody had a decent night all round!

urge2kill · 02-06-11, 01:21 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

0.1 units on Jon Jones Submission of the Night at +2100 to win 2.1 units (plus stake)

Vaughany · 02-06-11, 01:25 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Final Summary of UFC126 Plays:

Parlay: 0.837 units on Mitrione, Barry, Hominick, & Ellenberger to win 2.17 units (plus stake);

18.4 units on Anderson Silva/Belfort Over 2.5 Rnds at +121 to win 22.264 units (plus stake);

19.38 units on Anderson Silva/Belfort Under 2.5 Rnds at +110 to win 21.318 units (plus stake);

2 units on Anderson Silva by TKO/KO at +200 to win 4 units (plus stake);

24 units on Ellenberger/Rocha to go to decision at +333 to win 80 units (plus stake);

60 units on Ellenberger/Rocha to not go to decision at -250 to win 24 units (plus stake);

9 units on Ellenberger by TKO/KO at +110 to win 9.9 units (plus stake);

0.6 units on Rocha Submission of the Night at +1400 to win 8.4 units (plus stake);

6 units on Romero at +115 to win 6.9 units (plus stake);

5 units on Mighty Mouse at +120 to win 6 units (plus stake);

5.3 units on Kid Yamamoto at -105 to win 5.048 units (plus stake);

0.9 units on Yamamoto/MightyMouse! to go the Distance at +137.5 to win 1.238 units (plus stake);

0.54 units on Miguel Torres by decision at +250 to win 1.35 units (plus stake);

2.195 units on Griffin/Franklin to decision at +120 to win 2.634 units (plus stake);

0.43 units on Griffin/Franklin to decision at Evens to win 0.43 units (plus stake);

0.169 units on Franklin KO of the Night at +1300 to win 2.197 units (plus stake);

0.555 units on Franklin/Griffin FOTN at +375 to win 2.063 units (plus stake);

1.5 units on Bader at +285 to win 4.275 units (plus stake);

0.5 units on Jon Jones by decision at +400 to win 2 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Jon Jones Submission of the Night at +2100 to win 2.1 units (plus stake);

0.596 units on Cerrone by decision at +225 to win 1.341 units (plus stake);

0.12 units on Cerrone/Kelly FOTN at +700 to win 0.84 units (plus stake);

0.046 units on Cerrone Submission of the Night at +1000 to win 0.46 units (plus stake);

1.107 units on Mendes by decision at +120 to win 1.328 units (plus stake);

2 units on Mendes by decision at +110 to win 2.2 units (plus stake);

1.788 units on Mendes/Omigawa to decision at -137.5 to win 1.3 units (plus stake);

0.05 units on Pierce by submission at +1000 to win 0.5 units (plus stake);

Parlay: 1.549 units on Ellenberger, Cerrone/Kelly Over 1.5 Rnds, Not Bader by Submission, & Not Banuelos by Submission to win 1.921 units (plus stake);

0.2 units on A.Silva/Belfort FOTN at +500 to win 1 units (plus stake);

0.08 units on Mighty Mouse/Kid Yamamoto FOTN at +1100 to win 0.88 units (plus stake).

Going in to the event on -1.256 as Coy screwed the following parlay:

Parlay: 1.256 units on Coy, Diaz, & Anderson Silva to win 1.843 units (plus stake).

Best of luck all

UFC 126 Review:

Total stake: 166.198 units

Total return: 190.775 units

Overall profit: +24.577 units

Massive night for me, only big bet that failed was Romero but was worth the risk at plus odds. Was hoping to break the +100 units target by end of Feb (after UFC 127 within 6 month period) but have done it with an event to spare so all gooood.

Total Profit since Aug 26th 2010: +102.31 units

JuicedUp · 02-06-11, 01:30 AM

Wow. Impressive bro.