Vaughany's MMA Picks...

[kiefynugs]

lol saved by the arb

[The HOFF]

A +$$$ night as usual.

[Vaughany]

A +$$$ night as usual.

Yeah only just...not quite as fruitful as ur night..Villante let me down.

[Vaughany]

Additional UFC 127 Arb:

12.5 units on Fitch/BJ Penn to go the distance at -200 to win 6.25 units;

6.236 units on Fitch/BJ Penn to not go the distance at +255 to win 15.902 units.

3.402 units profit if it doesn't go the distance, I'm big on Fitch winning by decision so will be using that on Fitch by decision prop most probably.

[Vaughany]

Additional UFC 127 Arb:

12.5 units on Fitch/BJ Penn to go the distance at -200 to win 6.25 units;

6.236 units on Fitch/BJ Penn to not go the distance at +255 to win 15.902 units.

3.402 units profit if it doesn't go the distance, I'm big on Fitch winning by decision so will be using that on Fitch by decision prop most probably.

Adding:

3.2 units on Fitch by decision at -105 to win 3.04 units.

[Vaughany]

UFC 127:


0.46 units on Sotiropolous by Submission at +137.5 to win 0.632 units.

Will be making a substantial play on G Sot Submission of the Night as well.

[thesox0311]

Submission by Sotiropolous is the only way i see this fight going

[Poppa Catfish]

Siver by submission is the only way I see this fight going


If I'm wrong nobody will remember this post, but if I'm right I am a genius!


Sot looks very beatable recently , I'm just not convinced Siver is the one to do it, but I'll probably use Siver in a parlays as a multiplier.

But I do like the angle you are taking, and the price seems more than generous.

[Vaughany]

Siver by submission is the only way I see this fight going


If I'm wrong nobody will remember this post, but if I'm right I am a genius!


Sot looks very beatable recently , I'm just not convinced Siver is the one to do it, but I'll probably use Siver in a parlays as a multiplier.

But I do like the angle you are taking, and the price seems more than generous.

ha what you thinking? Rocks GSot then follows up with a rear-naked a la Winner?

[Poppa Catfish]

Something like that (except honestly it isn't happening, if anything it would be tapping due to strikes but I don't see it)

either that or he will use Michael Bisping's favorite submission, as seen on UFC.com, the triple decker pecker wrecker.

I see a Siver win as TKO stoppage, or a really ugly decision (which tends to happen when two guys have trained together before)

[kiefynugs]

Adding:

3.2 units on Fitch by decision at -105 to win 3.04 units.

now that is a confident bet. I like it. BJ Penn is not meant to hang with the wrestlefuc*ers of WW. He is stuck between two worlds

[Vaughany]

Something like that (except honestly it isn't happening, if anything it would be tapping due to strikes but I don't see it)

either that or he will use Michael Bisping's favorite submission, as seen on UFC.com, the triple decker pecker wrecker.

I see a Siver win as TKO stoppage, or a really ugly decision (which tends to happen when two guys have trained together before)

Yeah, I can get Siver by TKo/KO at +900 on a Euro site which is quite tempting, may do it as a hedge to G Sot Submission of the Night bet. But as you say I wouldnt rule out a decision in this one either.

[Vaughany]

Michael Bisping's favorite submission, as seen on UFC.com, the triple decker pecker wrecker.

lol with all the sh*t talking Rivera has been doing I wouldnt be surprised if Bisping unleashes it!

[Poppa Catfish]

Yeah, I can get Siver by TKo/KO at +900 on a Euro site which is quite tempting, may do it as a hedge to G Sot Submission of the Night bet. But as you say I wouldnt rule out a decision in this one either.

I think you are on the most likely prop already, for me I see value in Siver just sitting at +300, very strong multiplier and Sot has looked very vulnerable. I think the odds are off but I think more times than not Sot takes this fight by submission.

[Vaughany]

[thesox0311]

any chance Fitch could knockout or submit Penn? or is this fight def. going to the cards...

[Vaughany]

any chance Fitch could knockout or submit Penn? or is this fight def. going to the cards...

I see it going the distance at least 75% of the time and Fitch taking the decision at least 75% of the time. Fitch has showed against Pierce and GSP that he has a great chin and ability to recover. Of course anything can happen in MMA and I'm sure some will see value in props such as BJ by sub.

[The HOFF]

That's a bad ass highlight.

[Shagdogy]

Is it crazy that I've started to have thoughts of BJ actually being able to keep this fight standing? Fitch's wrestling has neither the power of GSP nor the speed of Frankie Edgar. His takedowns take a much longer time to complete than both of those guys and I still believe BJ's takedown defense is solid if he's ready for it, and with Fitch he will have a fraction of a second longer to be ready for it. I'm not sure that this matters anyway because Fitch can easily pin BJ on the cage for 3 rounds and win an ugly clinch battle, but it has crossed my mind that BJ could win a technical boxing match. I'm kicking myself for not getting on Fitch sooner at -140 when it opened, but I don't like him now in the -190 range.

[urge2kill]

You can get Fitch by decision at -142 at 5Dimes. I don't think he has much of a chance of finishing Penn.

[Vaughany]

Is it crazy that I've started to have thoughts of BJ actually being able to keep this fight standing? Fitch's wrestling has neither the power of GSP nor the speed of Frankie Edgar. His takedowns take a much longer time to complete than both of those guys and I still believe BJ's takedown defense is solid if he's ready for it, and with Fitch he will have a fraction of a second longer to be ready for it. I'm not sure that this matters anyway because Fitch can easily pin BJ on the cage for 3 rounds and win an ugly clinch battle, but it has crossed my mind that BJ could win a technical boxing match. I'm kicking myself for not getting on Fitch sooner at -140 when it opened, but I don't like him now in the -190 range.

Not crazy at all, u could well be spot on with tht line of thinking! Im counting on Fitch's relentlessness and cardio rather than his technical takedown ability and speed. I tend to agree with your view tht a substantial portion of each round will just be Fitch pinning BJ against the cage showing perceived "octagon control"!

You can get Fitch by decision at -142 at 5Dimes. I don't think he has much of a chance of finishing Penn.

Yeah but -142 for a specific prop like tht in MMA is not good value IMO just because of all the variables and dodgey judges' decisions. I took Fitch by decision at -105, probably wouldnt of taken it at anything worse than -110.

[RaiderNation MMA]

BJ is gonna win!!!! its obvious what fitch's is gonna do i believe matt will have him ready!

[terpkeg]

Yeah but -142 for a specific prop like tht in MMA is not good value IMO just because of all the variables and dodgey judges' decisions. I took Fitch by decision at -105, probably wouldnt of taken it at anything worse than -110.

-105 = 51.2%
-142 = 58.7%

Definitely losing the value here imo. 5dimes has To Decision at -300. If you think that is close to accurate, about 75% of time, will go decision. If you think Fitch takes 3 of 4 of those, 56.3% Fitch by Dec. Need to get about 85% of the decisions for Fitch to still see value. If you think it goes to Decision more than 75% of the time, at about 80% or more, maybe you start looking at taking To Decision Prop instead.

[Shagdogy]

Yeah but -142 for a specific prop like tht in MMA is not good value IMO just because of all the variables and dodgey judges' decisions. I took Fitch by decision at -105, probably wouldnt of taken it at anything worse than -110.

I wouldn't worry about the bad decisions too much. BJ does not generally get much love from judges. In fact, I'm not sure he has ever really benefited from judging in his career. Although, if one person is boring enough to be on the wrong end of a bad decision it's Fitch. I still think you're good though.

You're right though, i don't like to take props for specific outcomes for anything less than plus money. The lowest I've gone was evens on Silva by TKO over Belfort.

[MMAdisciple]

The lowest I've gone was evens on Silva by TKO over Belfort.

I got Silva by KO over Belfort at +145 on 5Dimes, where did you get it at evens?

[omalley21]

I think BJ could definitely win this fight. If he trains hard and comes to fight. But thats a big IF. But honestly, Fitch is overrated.

[Shagdogy]

I got Silva by KO over Belfort at +145 on 5Dimes, where did you get it at evens?

BetUS. But it was last minute. I waited and missed the value on it. I've been trying to avoid props and stick mostly to just picking winners but I had to take that last minute. I had 4 units on Silva to win, but I added 1 on that cause I was feeling it.

[Vaughany]

More UFC 127 Plays:

0.545 units on Pearson/Fisher to Decision at +120 to win 0.654 units;

0.335 units on Pearson by Decision at +200 to win 0.670 units;

0.08 units on Lytle by TKO/KO at +1000 to win 0.8 units.

[thesox0311]

I just think if BJ can stay on his feet, he has a chance.

[corcoran65]

vaughanny so who is this ebersole and what is ur percent that lytle wins

[Squareguy]

any chance Fitch could knockout or submit Penn? or is this fight def. going to the cards...

Fitch derives sexual pleasure from grinding on helpless opponents. It's possible, but decision is always a safe bet.

[Vaughany]

Adding:

1.804 units on Fisher at +175 to win win 3.157 units.

[Jordan23]

Good luck on your plays this weekend.

[Vaughany]

vaughanny so who is this ebersole and what is ur percent that lytle wins

I capped Lytle winning this 60-70% of the time. There's been some interesting line movement in this one, Ebersole came out at +425 and then dropped to +245 yesterday and is now at +175 with Lytle at -240 which suprised me as I expected Lytle to stay at -275 to -300 range. I guess the perceived home advantage, solid chin of Ebersole and crazy youtube clip might be influencing the betting public!

[Vaughany]

Added:

1 unit on Warburton at +145 to win 1.45 units.