I don't have bets on anything yet and don't like much. But my degenerate gambling habit is forcing me to at least make one play. What do think about the Bisping/Rivera fight not going to a decision? I'm not sure Rivera can last three rounds. Bisping is most likely looking to finish this fight. Now I can see that happening, or him being to aggressive trying to finish and then getting caught.
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I like that play also Hoff. Bisping can finish this fight quite easily if Rivera gasses. However, many people thought the same thing with Akiyama gassing and Bisping wasn't putting any extra pressure in the third. This fight obviously means more to Bisping because of the trash talk and I think even if Bisping is careful in the first 2 rounds he should pick it up and look for a finish by the third.Comment -
Leads me nicely to my latest and biggest plays/arb for this weekend!:
17.2 units on Bisping by decision at +150 to win 25.8 units; and
9.09 units on the fight not going the distance at +110 to win 9.999 units.
Also have a free bet worth 5 units on Bisping winning by TKO/KO at +225 to win 11.25 units.
If not for bet limits I would of put more on the fight not going the distance at +110 as I have come to a similar conclusion in that I think Bisping will look to finish this and at same time Rivera still has a chance of finishing. So I've gotta decide before fight time whether to take a safer option and add more to Fight not to go the distance at +105 but for a lower profit margin, or to add more on Bisping by TKO/KO at +225 or Bisping inside distance and supplement that with Rivera TKO/KO of the Night
Plus Im fu**ked at the moment if Rivera wins by decision or if it is a draw but I really don't foresee either of those outcomes occuring! Im expecting Bisping to take this to the ground at some point and finish Rivera by TKO a la Kang. I wouldnt rule out Bisping submitting him as well but with all the sh*t talkin Rivera has been doing about Bisping's lack of power I'd like to think that the Count will look to finish Rivera by strikes to prove a point.
I also dont agree with the common perception that Bisping has pillow fists and a glass jaw! With regard to the former, baring in mind that the fighters that Bisping has faced recently are all known for being very durable and having solid chins - Hendo, Wanderlei (perhaps not a solid chin but definitely not glass!), Leben, D.Miller, and Sexyama it's not surprising that Bisping didnt finish them. Bisping couldn't finish Sexyama but then Leben couldnt finish him by TKO/KO even though he is deemed to have serious KO power and Sexyama was just standing there taking shots like a beautiful sitting duck! Of course, Bisping isn't a serious KO artist but that doesn't mean he can't knock Rivera out or at least TKO him, plus one of his best weapons are his knees which are especially dangerous when he has his opponent backed up against the cage. IMO Rivera doesnt have as solid a chin as D.Miller, Leben, and Sexy and at the same time this is further compounded by his limited footwork and head movement, and inferior grappling ability, plus he is 38 and doubt that he is getting quicker fight by fight. Regarding Bisping's perceived "glass chin" Im also sceptical of this. Hendo packs some power and that punch would of dropped most fighters IMO. He took shots from Wanderlei and recovered and Akiyama hit him hard in first 30 seconds of their fight and Bisping recovered well from that.Comment -
I could see bisping rattling rivera with a good shot and ending with a series for a gnp tko. I wouldn't bet on bis by sub because that isn't what he'll look for if rivera hits the ground.
Not many great bets in this card for me.Comment -
I'm also in the "Bisbing finishes" camp. I waited too long to lock in "Not Bisping by 3 round decision"...... up to -193 now
GL Vaughany
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Ha good to know! Yeah I'm surprised there hasn't been more action on Bisping by decision. You can still get Fight doesnt go distance at -140 though, I highly doubt Rivera will take a decision.Comment -
How much is a unit for you? 17 units? for me 1 unit is 100 dollars. its quite difficult for me as a newbie to understand how much people
are in to their bets and to understand the risk when that type of numbers are involved. Can you explain?
And another thing i have thought about, are people talkin about how many units they are up?
I would love to know how much people in here make, or how many units people are up, like a rankings sort of? Is there any room for that type of organisation?
But yes, as i said, how much is a unit for you?
PS. since early 2010 when i started betting on mma, i am up by 75 u.Comment -
After all the shit talking Rivera has done I hope to god he doesn't hand bisping the KO, and I can't really see Bisping hunting for one. He's going to use his advantages to outpoint Rivera. Takedowns and ground control with no sub, and outpointing him on the feet with better movement and longer reach...
Not betting on this one. Thats just my prediction.Comment -
A unit for me is only £10. I've only been betting on MMA properly for about 8 months and started out on a book with very low limits so wasnt bettin much at all when I started, plus I obviously wasn't sure whether I knew what I was doing so have been keeping it low, and in the grand scheme of things I still am very green so avoid betting big amounts and tend to stick with conservative bets and scalping! However, now that I'm signed up to Bookmaker, Sportbet and Pinnacle my average stake amounts are gradually increasing. With regard to talkin about how many units we are up, we usually put a summary after each event (you'll see that Ecco, Brooks, Ill, Lask, Hoff do this on their threads). U'll see on previous page or two that I'm up just over 100 units in last 6 month period. In terms of a ranking system I'm not sure that would work as people have different approaches/methods and use different books, etc... so would be a fair/reliable indication.Comment -
Any underdog value with Jason Reinhardt?Comment -
I believe so! Will be making a play but just holding off for now to see if the line further improves, albeit it a small play as he is just a great can crusher and has ducked a lot of fights throughout his career! He seems amped up for this fight and has had a good camp with Wand Fight Team. Tie could sub him but I think Reinhardt's pace and build will make it difficult.Comment -
Adding:
0.1 units on Reinhardt by decision at +650 to win 0.65 units;
0.1 units on Te-Huna by decision at +600 to win 0.6 units;
0.3 units on Warburton/Jewtuszko to decision at +150 to win 0.45 units.Comment -
I put a unit on him at +215 and will most likely place another unit if it goes past +235. I dought we will see this fight swing much as I don't think there will be enough action on it.Comment -
Adding:
1 unit on Reinhardt at +210 to win 2.1 units;
0.5 units on Tie Quan Zhang to win by submission at +120 to win 0.6 units.Comment -
On which bookie do you find prop bets for undercard matches? I use bookmaker, pinnacle, 5dimes, but i cant find undercard props like zhang sub etc??Comment -
at 5dimes. It was at +210 most of day. Now I see it at +200. Wierd that there is this much swing on this fight so early. It should keep swinging like this, but pisses me off that I have to sign in and our every 5 minutes to if any change. lol
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Just got it at +235 NOW
I'm on it for 2 Units now...
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Spencer Fisher will most likely be my other underdog selection at +160. Sorry, Vaug, going against a brit.
BOL everyone. I will most likely start a thread with all my UFC plays for Saturday.Comment -
ha no problem, I think +160 is reasonable value for Fisher but ultimately I like Pearson to win by decision. Warburton dominated the first round of his fight against Fisher and then gassed out mid-way through the second half. Cardio won't be an issue for Pearson but then he doesn't look for takedowns as much as Warburton and is different stylistically - being more stand-up orientated. Also, not to take anything away from Cole Miller's victory but the fact is that Pearson was injured early in the Cole Miller fight - he tore cartilage and chipped the bone in his knee which as he has said in interviews lead to him losing his range, movement and timing. If they fought again I'd definitly still back Pearson.Comment -
On Reinhardt at +235 - bodog - 1u to win 2.35u
And rollin w/ the Gustafsson/Pearson parlay - 1u to win .93 u
Fisher looks older and tired when he fights now... I think Ross is going to be too fast and sharp on his feet.
I cannot believe Siver is at +900 to win by decision... I'm tempted there, but what's up w/ that? Are the bookies only thinking he can win by TKO/KO?
Good luck w/ your picks Vaughany!Comment -
GL to you 2, like those 2 plays. +900 is reasonable value but I guess the reasoning is that if the fight does go to decision, it is highly unlikely that Siver will have scored points through takedowns or sub attempts, with GSot being a lot more likely to be the one getting takedowns and controlling things on the ground (thus scoring points). So this would mean Siver's only chance of scoring points would be by keeping the fight standing and picking apart Sot for at least 2 out of the 3 rounds. Again I think this an unlikely scenario because: a) GSot will most likely not want to keep the fight standing for three-rounds and will undoubtedly look to take the fight to the ground at some point; b) Siver isn't really a striker that will bounce around looking to pick apart GSot, and this wouldnt be an easy strategy either seeing as G Sot is tall and has a reach advantage, I think it's a lot more likely that he sits on his strikes and looks for the TKO/KO finish. If he does drop GSot I dont see how GSot would survive it, Siver knows how to finish and has power so it's not like he might take a decision because of a knockdown and damage. Moreover, GSot has the home advantage, and there is that evervescent awareness that judges will favour the home guy due to crowd pressure, etc...
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Ah, I overlooked the whole home-advantage angle.... thx for bringing that to my attention. Staying away.Comment -
UFC 130 Play:
4 units on Stann at +110 to win 4.4 units.Comment -
I jumped on Frank Mir -110 also.Comment -
MFC 28 Supremacy Plays:
10 units on Washington at +170 to win 17 units;
11.103 units on Glover at +162.5 to win 18.042 units.
5.897 units profit if Denzel Washington wins or 8.042 units if Danny Glover wins!
Also:
1.036 units on E.Newton at -120 to win 0.863 units.Comment -
master arb at his finestComment -
Paddy must have their line backwards on this fight?
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