Vaughany's MMA Picks...

[Vaughany]

0.357 units on Overeem by TKO/KO at +187.5 to win 0.669 units.

[sirchadwick1]

Love the Overeem prop! Hopping aboard there as well.

[Poppa Catfish]

No play yet on Miesha Tate w/ upset over Coenen?

[Vaughany]

No play yet on Miesha Tate w/ upset over Coenen?

Considering it for sure, need to watch some footage of Tate first tho...as we've said before, no female fighter should ever be a +150 or worse dog unless she's facing Cyborg!

[Poppa Catfish]

Yeah, not a lot of separation in skills in that division except the previously mentioned female impersonator.

I've watched a little tape, its nowhere near the slam dunk that was Nunes, but I think Tate can steal a decision here.

[Vaughany]

Yeah, not a lot of separation in skills in that division except the previously mentioned female impersonator.

I've watched a little tape, its nowhere near the slam dunk that was Nunes, but I think Tate can steal a decision here.

Yeah decision seems most likely to me as well, gonna wait and see if Paddy release that prop closer to the fight...unlikely tho as it's a Bitch fight!

[Vaughany]

0.05 units on Shogun by Submission at +1800 to win 0.9 units.

[Vaughany]

Strikeforce: Fedor vs Silva Play:

75 units on Villante at -170 to win 44.118 units;

37 units on Griggs at +206 to win 76.22 units.

Risk free bet: 1.22 units profit if Griggs wins, or 7.118 units profit if Villante wins.

[Vaughany]

Strikeforce: Fedor vs Silva Plays:

0.273 units on Kharitonov by TKO/KO at +250 to win 0.683 units;

0.2 units on Fedor by TKO/KO at +225 to win 0.45 units;

0.1 units on Arlovski by decision at +400 to win 0.4 units.

Very small plays due to bet limits but I don't like putting much on Strikeforce events anyway. See value in all three of these as the odds for Fedor by TKO/KO or more like +140 to +170 range on most sites, Kharitonov by TKO/KO is like +200 to +215 and Arlovski by decision is between +330 to +350 range.

Adding:

0.5 units on Fedor by Submission at +500 to win 2.5 units;

0.1 units on Fedor by TKO/KO at +162.5 to win 0.163 units;

0.062 units on Del Rosario, Fedor/Silva goes the distance, Not Kharitonov by submission, & Marquardt to win 0.45 units.

[xelance]

you are the freakin master at arbs Vaughany

[Vaughany]

you are the freakin master at arbs Vaughany

Gracie Xelance! Have to say tho that a lot of these wouldn't be possible if not for Pinnacle.

[terpkeg]

Considering it for sure, need to watch some footage of Tate first tho...as we've said before, no female fighter should ever be a +150 or worse dog unless she's facing Cyborg!

I feel like coenen is the better grappler and she should have a size and reach advantage on the feet, no? Only way I see this going tate's way is grinding it out a decision with superior wrestling and stalling in top control.

However, I have not watched any tape here. This is just off of recent memory. So I could be mistaken.

[BIGDAY]

Any feel to any value on Marc Stevens win or dec?

[Vaughany]

Any feel to any value on Marc Stevens win or dec?

I think that the odds are about right. Cholish is a decent wrestler himself starring at Cornell University and he is one of John Danaher's top pupils at Renzo Gracie. He trains and spars with Florian, Edgar, Almeida, Branch and GSP, defintely a much higher level than Marc Stevens trains with! Although Stevens is a brown-belt (apparently) he showed he is susceptible to submissions and not the most intelligent fighter on TUF so it would worry me if I had a play on Stevens against a guy who has ever-improving BJJ under the Renzo Gracie team. Cholish received his blue-belt from Danaher after two or three months and has two recent submission wins. Stevens could take a decision but you wont find a prop for that. If I was forced to play either I'd take Cholish at -160 odds but Im stayin away from this one.

[BIGDAY]

Thanks for the note. I'm strugling to find some strait up value dogs on this strikeforce card. The lines for the entire card are looking true. I might only be playing a couple low risk $ parlays on some favs. Best of luck.

[lasker]

I think that the odds are about right. Cholish is a decent wrestler himself starring at Cornell University and he is one of John Danaher's top pupils at Renzo Gracie. He trains and spars with Florian, Edgar, Almeida, Branch and GSP, defintely a much higher level than Marc Stevens trains with! Although Stevens is a brown-belt (apparently) he showed he is susceptible to submissions and not the most intelligent fighter on TUF so it would worry me if I had a play on Stevens against a guy who has ever-improving BJJ under the Renzo Gracie team. Cholish received his blue-belt from Danaher after two or three months and has two recent submission wins. Stevens could take a decision but you wont find a prop for that. If I was forced to play either I'd take Cholish at -160 odds but Im stayin away from this one.

I think Cholish -160 is probably one of the better plays on the card, but what makes me hesitate is his relative inexperience and the fact that he works as a broker for Intercontinental Exchange in what must be a stressful and time-consuming job that he has to juggle with his burgeoning MMA career. Even so, I think Cholish will win this without any problems, probably by sub in the first round. He's an intelligent guy with a great wrestling background at Cornell (#1 ranked wrestling college), which probably negates Stevens' only real weapon, and he trains with all the right people for his jiu-jitsu and seems well-regarded. Once again Stevens will choke, literally, on the big stage. It's what he does. I don't think he has anything besides wrestling and it's doubtful he'll even have that edge in this fight.

Meh, I talked myself into it. I'll probably regret this now but I'm making a small bet on Cholish!

[Eccocide]

I like Cholish as well, but only at -150 or better. GL this weekend Vaugh.

[illmatick]

" Although Stevens is a brown-belt (apparently)"

, do you know who he earned it under? most shocking news of the week.

[xelance]

steven seagal? Lol

[Vaughany]

Ken Kronenburg? Tai Kai Jiu Jitsu!

[The HOFF]

Good luck tonight. Should be some pretty good fights. I'm really hoping to see Arlovski get dropped again.

[ROYAJA8]

Yeah decision seems most likely to me as well, gonna wait and see if Paddy release that prop closer to the fight...unlikely tho as it's a Bitch fight!

lol at a Frankie Edgar fan calling someone a bitch...wow...that's like Elton John calling someone a f\*g

[Shagdogy]

I know I'm late to the party here, but great job on 126 V! King of the arbs at it again for strikeforce tonight. I'm liking the discussion on Cholish/stevens here but I gotta go with Lask and put a small one on Cholish. It's as much my faith in Cholish's improvement as it is Stevens to mess it up.

[Vaughany]

lol at a Frankie Edgar fan calling someone a bitch...wow...that's like Elton John calling someone a f\*g

How did Belfort get on against Canderson last wknd Pride>UFC?

[Camdemonium]

How did Belfort get on against Canderson last wknd Pride>UFC?

+1

[ROYAJA8]

How did Belfort get on against Canderson last wknd Pride>UFC?

he did about as Gomi against Guida...

[ROYAJA8]

+1

lol candemonium

[Vaughany]

he did about as Gomi against Guida...

Yeah and what's your point?

[Vaughany]

I know I'm late to the party here, but great job on 126 V! King of the arbs at it again for strikeforce tonight. I'm liking the discussion on Cholish/stevens here but I gotta go with Lask and put a small one on Cholish. It's as much my faith in Cholish's improvement as it is Stevens to mess it up.

Cheers bro! Yeah I'd be very surprised if Stevens pulled off the win in this one. I was same as Ecco and would of played Cholish at -150. GL tonight

[ROYAJA8]

Yeah and what's your point?

are you stupid?

[ROYAJA8]

Cheers bro! Yeah I'd be very surprised if Stevens pulled off the win in this one. I was same as Ecco and would of played Cholish at -150. GL tonight

I guess I have to spell it out for ya...remember when you made 100 threads about how much of a lock Gomi was against Guida? exactly...balls in your mouth...btw how gay is your avatar picture?

[kiefynugs]

its been a while but I think I remember tailing vaughany for Guida sub of the night on that one...

[Vaughany]

its been a while but I think I remember tailing vaughany for Guida sub of the night on that one...

ha Im not sure what's goin on right now, I think he's got aspergus or some sort of memory disorder as well as being straight up retarded. I don't remember making any threads about Gomi beating Guida! Guida Submission of the Night was probly my best play that night which put me in positive units overall!

[Vaughany]

I guess I have to spell it out for ya...remember when you made 100 threads about how much of a lock Gomi was against Guida? exactly...balls in your mouth...btw how gay is your avatar picture?

Please point out these threads to me??? I remember puttin 5 units on Gomi because I got him at +150 with the intention of arbing out - which I did buy getting Guida at -143 or something. I then had a play on Guida Submission of the Night....but yes Im the one who's stupid.

[Vaughany]

Strikeforce: Fedor vs Silva Plays Review:

75 units on Villante at -170 to win 44.118 units;

37 units on Griggs at +206 to win 76.22 units;

0.273 units on Kharitonov by TKO/KO at +250 to win 0.683 units;

0.2 units on Fedor by TKO/KO at +225 to win 0.45 units;

0.1 units on Arlovski by decision at +400 to win 0.4 units;

0.5 units on Fedor by Submission at +500 to win 2.5 units;

0.1 units on Fedor by TKO/KO at +162.5 to win 0.163 units;

0.062 units on Del Rosario, Fedor/Silva goes the distance, Not Kharitonov by submission, & Marquardt to win 0.45 units.

Total risk: 113.235 units

Return: 114.176 units

Total profit: +0.941 units