Vaughany's MMA Picks...

[Vaughany]

I still find the Barnett to win bet as kind of odd. I'm hoping you will get a refund if Barnett isn't able to compete in this "tournament"

ha yeah I checked with Skybet before and they said it would be void - stake returned!

[urge2kill]

If Lawler doesn't KO him he's highly unlikely to win.

[Vaughany]

Parlay: 1.256 units on Coy, Diaz, & Anderson Silva to win 1.843 units (plus stake).

[RaiderNation MMA]

nick diaz fight scares me.......santos could knock him out, the pitty patter punch stuff may not work

[RaiderNation MMA]

is it smart to bet the fight will go the distance then bet it wont like u did?? dont u lose either way and win i suppose

[urge2kill]

is it smart to bet the fight will go the distance then bet it wont like u did?? dont u lose either way and win i suppose

Are you referring to his plays on the Sotoropolous/Siver and Bisping/Rivera fights? Since his + odds are greater than his - odds he'll either win or break even.

[The HOFF]

No Strikeforce bets for you? I thought for sure you would have some crazy arb like Diaz gets poked in the eye for 2u at +105 and Diaz doesn't get poked in the eye on Paddy Power for 2u at +405.

[lasker]

No Strikeforce bets for you? I thought for sure you would have some crazy arb like Diaz gets poked in the eye for 2u at +105 and Diaz doesn't get poked in the eye on Paddy Power for 2u at +405.

[Vaughany]

Ha Unfortunately not currently arbs on the go Hoff...just the parlay with Coy and Diaz in it for now! Although stay tuned because there could be a cheeky last minute arb involving Mr Gracie and Prangley if I can get the latter at +155!

[Squareguy]

Ha Unfortunately not currently arbs on the go Hoff...just the parlay with Coy and Diaz in it for now! Although stay tuned because there could be a cheeky last minute arb involving Mr Gracie and Prangley if I can get the latter at +155!

Prangley is at +160 on Bodog.

[urge2kill]

He's +160 at several books now.

[Squareguy]

He's +160 at several books now.

So is there any arb bets?

I'm only on Bodog right now, so I don't even have any props.

[urge2kill]

No arbs for Americans that I see, unless you're dumb enough to play at SBG Global who has Gracie at -155.

[Vaughany]

Prangley is at +160 on Bodog.

He's +160 at several books now.

I only have Sportbet and Bookmaker accounts, still +150 and +155 on them. Would need to be at least +160 to make the arb worthwhile as I can get Gracie at -137.5 on StanJames.

[urge2kill]

Bookmaker just hit +160.

[Vaughany]

Bookmaker just hit +160.

ha yeah but unfortunetly the odds for Gracie have changed now as well on stanjames to 4/7

[Vaughany]

Additional UFC 126 play:

2 units on Anderson Silva by TKO/KO at +200 to win 4 units (plus stake).

[Poppa Catfish]

Baby bump!



Kidding, like the play bro

[Vaughany]

Summary of UFC 126 Plays so far:

Parlay: 0.837 units on Mitrione, Barry, Hominick, & Ellenberger to win 2.17 units (plus stake);

2 units on Anderson Silva by TKO/KO at +200 to win 4 units (plus stake);

0.9 units on Yamamoto/MightyMouse! to go the Distance at +137.5 to win 1.238 units (plus stake);

0.54 units on Miguel Torres by decision at +250 to win 1.35 units (plus stake);

2.195 units on Griffin/Franklin to decision at +120 to win 2.634 units (plus stake);

0.43 units on Griffin/Franklin to decision at Evens to win 0.43 units (plus stake);

1.5 units on Bader at +285 to win 4.275 units (plus stake);

0.5 units on Jon Jones by decision at +400 to win 2 units (plus stake).


Going in to the event on -1.256 as Coy screwed the following parlay:

Parlay: 1.256 units on Coy, Diaz, & Anderson Silva to win 1.843 units (plus stake).

[Vaughany]

Additional 126 play:

6 units on Romero at +115 to win 6.9 units (plus stake).

[JediMind87]

Additional 126 play:

6 units on Romero at +115 to win 6.9 units (plus stake).

Wow big on Romero huh? I thought u were liking Kingsbury?

[Vaughany]

Wow big on Romero huh? I thought u were liking Kingsbury?

Yee pretty big for me! I was always liking Romero in this one but I expected Kingsbury to come out as an undervalued dog (due to Romero being the superior wrestler and because of his impressive comeback against Petruzelli) so was going to take Kingsbury at +175 or better. Was anticipating Romero to come out at -140 to -190 range or something along those lines so couldn't help but go bigger than usual at the +115 odds available.

IMO Romero has an advantage in both wrestling and BJJ. He has Div1 Wrestling experience at Rutgers with 94 wins at 197lbs. He earned No10 National Ranking at one point during his college career. He also has a purple belt in Gracie BJJ and owns a 1st round sub win over Nova Uniao black belt Silmar Rodrigo. For me this does not bode well for Kingsbury who has struggled in the past against wrestlers and been susceptible to submissions. Both Soszynski and Bader subbed Kingsbury on TUF and Tom Lawler (a natural 185lb'er) decisioned him at the finale. In his last two fights in the UFC Kingsbu didn't have to worry about a significant grappling threat as Hamann and Al-Hassan are predominantly stand-up based. In fact, Kingsbu even had the edge in wrestling and was able to score significant points against both fighters through takedowns (Kingsbury used his size advantage to clinch with Hamman against the cage whenever he started taking shots from Hamman and get take downs, mostly in first round). He showed limited ability to control Hamann when he did get him to the ground, as Hamman was able to pop right back up everytime. Moreover, both Hamman and Al-Hassan are tall rangy strikers who aren't very bulky 205ers and Kingsbu clearly had a strength advantage which helped a lot. Against Romero, although he will still have a height and reach advantage, he wont necessarily have a strength advantage as Romero has a very different body type to Al-Hassan and Hamann (built more like a bull!). One area that Kingsbury may have an advantage in is cardio. However, Romero had his jaw broken in the first round against Petruzelli and this undoubtely effected his breathing and along with the first time octagon 'jitters' it was not surprising that he looked gassed out before pulling off the submission. Training with the likes of the Miller brothers and Charlie Brenneman at AMA I think Romero's cardio will be okay and more vitally his grit and determination will narrow the margin. Overall, the key for a Romero win will be to pressure Kingsbu early against the cage and drag him to the mat and from there work a submission such as a keylock, arm-triangle, or kimura. Even if Romero stands with Kingsbury, he has shown that he has a granite chin and some power so will be able to hang there. Im not convinced that Kingsbury's takedown and submission defence will have improved enough since his time on TUF and that Romero will eventually find a way to get this to the ground and submit Kingsbu.

[Vaughany]

5 units on Mighty Mouse at +120 to win 6 units (plus stake).

I will be looking to arb this with Yamamoto at -109 or better on Pinnacle. I think based on the line movement that there's a chance that Might Mouse ends up as favourite or Yamamoto at least improves from -109 to Evens.

[sideloaded]

Great write up on Romaro, I think you convinced who to bet in this fight.

[Eccocide]

I wouldn't underestimate Kingsburys TDD as it is much improved since working at AKA. And Romero`s TDs are usually telegraphed which will help Kingsbury with the sprawl. Also, if anyone has seen Romero`s ROC fights, he`s had the size advantage in most of his fights. He`s been able to bully ppl against the cage and drag them down. Or when he gets in trouble on the feet, he`s been able to shoot with some sloppy singles to pull off the TD. That isn`t going to work against a big Kingsbury and he`s going to be forced to stand for portions of this fight against Kingsbury`s reach and better boxing. Romeros best chance is to try and finish this early while he is fresh and the fighters arent slippery. His cardio is suspect and he carries some excess weight for a 205lber. GL with your bet, but I will most likely be on the other side if I can get Kingsbury around the Sportsbook opener of -115 as I missed it.

[Vaughany]

Great write up on Romaro, I think you convinced who to bet in this fight.

Cheers, but as Ecco rightly points out there are some questions such as how much Kingsbury's TDD has improved, and Romero's cardio, and whether his wrestling credentials transfer effectively in to MMA.

I wouldn't underestimate Kingsburys TDD as it is much improved since working at AKA. And Romero`s TDs are usually telegraphed which will help Kingsbury with the sprawl. Also, if anyone has seen Romero`s ROC fights, he`s had the size advantage in most of his fights. He`s been able to bully ppl against the cage and drag them down. Or when he gets in trouble on the feet, he`s been able to shoot with some sloppy singles to pull off the TD. That isn`t going to work against a big Kingsbury and he`s going to be forced to stand for portions of this fight against Kingsbury`s reach and better boxing. Romeros best chance is to try and finish this early while he is fresh and the fighters arent slippery. His cardio is suspect and he carries some excess weight for a 205lber. GL with your bet, but I will most likely be on the other side if I can get Kingsbury around the Sportsbook opener of -115 as I missed it.

I agree, Romero's TD's are telgraphed and he could well be another Munoz type wrestler who's ability doesnt transfer as well in to MMA. Also agree about the weight, he's another fighter that would suit a 195lb division and only cuts a few pounds to make 205 while Kingsbury cuts quite a bit I believe. Although I dont necessarily disagree with you about Kingsbu's improved TDD, Im not convinced that it has improved that much. Undoubtedly you would have to assume that is has due to the fact that he's training at AKA with likes of Fitch, Kos, Cain and Cormier, but I don't think he's demonstrated in his last two fights since the loss to Lawler. He was taken down early by Al-Hassan from a trip and Hamann even managed to get him down in the second round of their fight (allbeit Kingsbu may have slipped before which helped), but still the fact that neither of these guys really initiated any takedowns makes it hard to assess Kingsbu's level of improvement, unless I've missed something? But for sure, Romero's best chance in this one will be to pressure Kingsbury early and although he isnt going to do a Baderesq double leg, I do think he can drag Kingsbu to the ground after pressuring him against the cage. Possibility of him being gassed out by mid-way of second stage is a definite concern though.

[Vaughany]

0.596 units on Cerrone by decision at +225 to win 1.341 units (plus stake).

[Vaughany]

Tried ringing Paddypower to place a bigger bet for this one but they're sticking firm with the limits

1.107 units on Mendes by decision at +120 to win 1.328 units (plus stake);

1.788 units on Mendes/Omigawa to decision at -137.5 to win 1.3 units (plus stake).

[Vaughany]

0.05 units on Pierce by submission at +1000 to win 0.5 units (plus stake).

[Vaughany]

18.4 units on Anderson Silva/Belfort Over 2.5 Rnds at +121 to win 22.264 units (plus stake);

19.38 units on Anderson Silva/Belfort Under 2.5 Rnds at +110 to win 21.318 units (plus stake).

Guaranteed profit of 2.884 units if the Over hits, guaranteed profit of 2.918 units if the Under hits.

[illmatick]

what are the limits at Paddypower? have they cut your limits on MMA?

[xelance]

vaughany, what were the lines on the last bets you posted (the guaranteed units)?

[Vaughany]

what are the limits at Paddypower? have they cut your limits on MMA?

Yeah I've got very low limits on majority since December (talkin double figures max), except for some reason they let me have a reasonable amount on the Under 2.5 (Anderson vs Belfort).

[Vaughany]

vaughany, what were the lines on the last bets you posted (the guaranteed units)?

Ahh yeah good point forgot to add them! Edited it now.

[xelance]

damn...no wonder its guaranteed profit. What book is that? Bookmaker had them at +115 OV and -145 UN...not exactly the same odds hahaha