Vaughany's MMA Picks...

[Poppa Catfish]

3004
Brian Bowles wins inside distance
-
-120
-
-

3005
Brian Bowles wins by 3 round decision
-
+160

3006
Damacio Page wins inside distance
-
+475

3007
Damacio Page wins by 3 round decision
-
+325

3008
Draw
-
+2500
All wagers have action.
6:00pBrian Bowles vs. Damacio Page

3008
Brian Bowles vs. Damacio Page completes 2 full rounds
-
+150
-
-

3009
Brian Bowles vs. Damacio Page won't completes 2 full rounds
-
-200
All wagers have action.

[Poppa Catfish]

06
Chris Weidman vs Alessio Sakara completes 1 full round
-
-200
-
-

3007
Chris Weidman vs Alessio Sakara won't complete 1 full round
-
+150
All wagers have action.
6:30pChris Weidman vs. Alessio Sakara

3007
Chris Weidman vs Alessio Sakara completes 2 full rounds
-
+150
-
-

3008
Chris Weidman vs Alessio Sakara won't complete 2 full rounds
-
-200
All wagers have action.

[Poppa Catfish]

Mark Munoz wins inside distance
-
+200
-
-

3036
Mark Munoz wins by 3 round decision
-
+125

3037
C.B. Dollaway wins inside distance
-
+360

3038
C.B. Dollaway wins by 3 round decision
-
+340

3039
Draw
-
+2200
All wagers have action.
7:00pMark Munoz vs. C.B. Dollaway

3039
Mark Munoz vs. C.B. Dollaway completes 2 full rounds
-
-210
-
-

3040
Mark Munoz vs. C.B. Dollaway won't complete 2 full rounds
-
+160
All wagers have action.

[Poppa Catfish]

and I'm done spamming


Anything stand out there?

[Poppa Catfish]

3
Martin Kampmann wins inside distance
-
+375
-
-

3034
Martin Kampmann wins by 3 round decision
-
+125

3035
Diego Sanchez wins inside distance
-
+375

3036
Diego Sanchez wins by 3 round decision
-
+200

3037
Draw
-
+2200
All wagers have action.
8:00pMartin Kampmann vs. Diego Sanchez

3037
Martin Kampmann vs. Diego Sanchez completes 1 full round
-
-700
-
-

3038
Martin Kampmann vs. Diego Sanchez won't complete 1 full round
-
+400
All wagers have action.
8:00pMartin Kampmann vs. Diego Sanchez

3038
Martin Kampmann vs. Diego Sanchez completes 2 full rounds
-
-340
-
-

3039
Martin Kampmann vs. Diego Sanchez won't complete 2 full rounds
-
+260
All wagers have action.

[Poppa Catfish]

and I'm done spamming


Anything stand out there?

[Vaughany]

Nothing really jumps out at me, perhaps the Palhares/Branch doesnt complete 1 round, and Sanchez by decision at +200 (Sanchez by decison is +175 on Euro sites).

[Poppa Catfish]

Even that I'm not too fond of, kind of screams sucker bet.

Sanchez by decision, and maybe Weidman by decision is all that I can see.

[Vaughany]

Even that I'm not too fond of, kind of screams sucker bet.

Sanchez by decision, and maybe Weidman by decision is all that I can see.

Yeah, Branch has reasonable footwork and likes to circle so he could waste some time doing that and just try picking Palhares apart. Could easily go in to a second round. What's the Weidman and Sakara props...I cant see them amongst the ones u posted apart from fight goes rnd 1 etc...?

[Poppa Catfish]

Decision +200 for Weidman, inside the distance +110

[Vaughany]

Decision +200 for Weidman, inside the distance +110

Ye decision is most likely for me. Im hoping to get it better on paddypower tho.

[Mr.Kitty]

Yeah I've already put my pitiful max-bet on it going the distance at +125! I'm waiting to see if sportbet release fight to go distance prop tomorrow if the fight is chosen to be one of the two shown on facebook. PP also got Munoz/Dolloway to go distance at -150 which I like. Tis -230 on Sportbet. I see that Sweden is likely to host a UFC event on 5th November

I´ll most likely attending this event unless im dying or something, cant miss the oppurtunity to see UFC live. Have you been to any of the events thats been held in the UK?

Damn, the odds on Weidman sank like a ship, I probably wont be able to get him at a decent enough price to justify a bet

[Vaughany]

I´ll most likely attending this event unless im dying or something, cant miss the oppurtunity to see UFC live. Have you been to any of the events thats been held in the UK?

Damn, the odds on Weidman sank like a ship, I probably wont be able to get him at a decent enough price to justify a bet

Yeah u should defo go. I went to the last UFC in London, was epic...witnessing the Condit KO of Hardy was awesome! I had the cheapest seats as well £55 high up and it was perfect. Had the big screen next to us and looking directly in to the ring with no obstructions. Had mates who'd paid double what I did and sat lower down about mid-level with the octagon and said that they struggled to see a lot. The atmosphere is amazing, beats any soccer game or other sporting event I've ever been to. When the Baba O'Reilly Teenage Wastleland highlight video comes on before the main event starts it is EPIC! I might even look into making a trip over to Sweden with a couple buddies if I can get tickets!

[sirchadwick1]

I think I'm making a small play on Damacio ITD at +475. Bowles is a tough guy, but his hand still worries me. I don't see Page winning by decision, so this play makes sense for value.

[Mr.Kitty]

Yeah u should defo go. I went to the last UFC in London, was epic...witnessing the Condit KO of Hardy was awesome! I had the cheapest seats as well £55 high up and it was perfect. Had the big screen next to us and looking directly in to the ring with no obstructions. Had mates who'd paid double what I did and sat lower down about mid-level with the octagon and said that they struggled to see a lot. The atmosphere is amazing, beats any soccer game or other sporting event I've ever been to. When the Baba O'Reilly Teenage Wastleland highlight video comes on before the main event starts it is EPIC! I might even look into making a trip over to Sweden with a couple buddies if I can get tickets!

Sounds like a good idea! if I bump into a bunch of crazy brits I can assume its you and your pals . Good that you confirm that the more pricy seats aint necessarily the best ones, ive heard that its often hard to see all the action from closer to the ring. I can imagine its a a powerful experience, can not wait to experience it!
Btw it must have been hard to see Condit KO Hardy like that, I suspect you wanted to reverse the roles, so that Hardy won by brutal KO instead.

[Vaughany]

I think I'm making a small play on Damacio ITD at +475. Bowles is a tough guy, but his hand still worries me. I don't see Page winning by decision, so this play makes sense for value.

Yeah Page undoubtedly has power and is aggressive, this could be problematic for Bowles who's coming off a year long layoff and injuries. Bowles could be the next Mike Brown!

[rocky mattioli]

Yeah Page undoubtedly has power and is aggressive, this could be problematic for Bowles who's coming off a year long layoff and injuries. Bowles could be the next Mike Brown!

nice observation...

[sirchadwick1]

Yeah Page undoubtedly has power and is aggressive, this could be problematic for Bowles who's coming off a year long layoff and injuries. Bowles could be the next Mike Brown!

The more I think about it, the more I like it V. Going back and rewatching their first bout, Damacio looked to have the edge in the standup. The only reason Bowles got on top was b/c Damacio slipped going in for a kick. And even off his back, his guard was pretty effective and he was going for sweeps and subs. Page sealed his own fate when he picked Bowles up with ease and tried to slam him... getting caught in that tight guillotine. Hopefully he doesn't make the same mistake twice. This is a bout I'm really looking forward to - the Angel of Death was really upset w/ himself last time and I'm sure he's going to try to make a statement tomorrow.

[Vaughany]

The more I think about it, the more I like it V. Going back and rewatching their first bout, Damacio looked to have the edge in the standup. The only reason Bowles got on top was b/c Damacio slipped going in for a kick. And even off his back, his guard was pretty effective and he was going for sweeps and subs. Page sealed his own fate when he picked Bowles up with ease and tried to slam him... getting caught in that tight guillotine. Hopefully he doesn't make the same mistake twice. This is a bout I'm really looking forward to - the Angel of Death was really upset w/ himself last time and I'm sure he's going to try to make a statement tomorrow.

Yeah, u'd think with Team Jackson behind him they will have drilled in to him to watch out for the guillotine and to be less erratic!

[FlashinLeather]

Yeah Page undoubtedly has power and is aggressive, this could be problematic for Bowles who's coming off a year long layoff and injuries. Bowles could be the next Mike Brown!

I still can't believe how hard Mike Brown fell. What happened to this guy? I know he broke up with his girlfriend or something and it was a mind **** for him but how does a guy that is ranked #1 in the world drop so hard and fast.

[thesox0311]

Seems like Mike Brown got old really fast!

[peiferbro1]

Don't mean to hijack this thread, but what books are you guys using to bet these props? I'm with Diamond and they don't seem to have any prop bets like this. Thanks for the help

[Vaughany]

Don't mean to hijack this thread, but what books are you guys using to bet these props? I'm with Diamond and they don't seem to have any prop bets like this. Thanks for the help

No worries, usually 5dimes/Sportbet but at moment they only have the fight to go distance props available for the 4 main card fights, by tonight the rest of the props should be up. The props listed above that Poppa posted are from Bodog.

[Vaughany]

I still can't believe how hard Mike Brown fell. What happened to this guy? I know he broke up with his girlfriend or something and it was a mind **** for him but how does a guy that is ranked #1 in the world drop so hard and fast.

Seems like Mike Brown got old really fast!

ha yeah big sudden downfall from him! Finishing Faber twice was quite an achievement. He had trouble with his girlfriend just befor the Gamburyan fight I believe, then recently he said that he's been having issues with peaking at the right time. He said that before the Yahya fight he had a spell of about 2 weeks mid-way through his camp were he was in awesome condition, throwing around everybody in the gym and just straight-up dominating, then suddenly in the last two weeks of camp goin in to the fight he suddenly started feeling weak and tired - which was evident during the fight. Maybe he has just gotten old very fast, or maybe it's psychological

[omalley21]

I like Page inside distance too. I also agree about getting the cheap seats at events. Your watchin the screen either way.

Do you ever pass up on an arb oppurtunity? I see no way Kampmann sanchez doesnt go the distance. If I were to arb out, I would take kampmann inside the distance because diego isnt finishing him.

[Vaughany]

I like Page inside distance too. I also agree about getting the cheap seats at events. Your watchin the screen either way.

Do you ever pass up on an arb oppurtunity? I see no way Kampmann sanchez doesnt go the distance. If I were to arb out, I would take kampmann inside the distance because diego isnt finishing him.

Yeah when Im very confident in the play I'll pass it up..as is the case with this Sanchez/Kampmann fight. I've got 10 units at risk at moment, if the "Not go the distance" goes back up to +230 or better I might arb out again but I'll probly stick with it as I see it goin to decision at least 80% the time. I'll also resist arbing the Weidman play.

[thesox0311]

Diamiond actually does have prop bets, they just normally arent up till the day before or the day of the event. They have ko of the night, fight of the night, by dec, quickest sub, etc...

[Jankar]

Page could catch Bowels but more likely tht Bowels chokes out Page. And Sanchez/Kampmann to decision of course.

[jacktheknife]

What do you think about Yang. I know -240 is a bit steep, but this looks like Zhang's fight at 127. Asian fighter that the UFC wants to get a win. I think it's worth a unit or two.

I'd be careful fading any one of Greg's boys to foreign indy circuit talent. Said it.

[Vaughany]

I'd be careful fading any one of Greg's boys to foreign indy circuit talent. Said it.

I thought I may have read an article the other day that indicated that the "Grimsdale Reaper" hadn't been workin with Jackson that much, that he'd switched up his camp quite a lot? Might be wrong tho!

[Vaughany]

UFC Live on Versus 3 Plays:


0.5 units on Tavares/Roller to go to decision at +125 to win 0.625 units;

0.084 units on Roller by TKO/KO at +1000 to win 0.84 units;
6.75 units on Weidman at -135 to win 5 units;
2 units on Palhares at -180 to win 1.11 units;
10 units on Sanchez/Kampmann to go to decision at -167 to win 6 units;
13.529 units on Sanchez/Kampmann to go to decision at -167 to win 8.117 units;

6.15 units on Sanchez/Kampmann to not go to decision at +220 to win 13.53 units;


2.795 units on Bowles/Page to go to decision at +325 to win 9.084 units (Looking to arb this one);


Strikeforce: Columbus Play:

1.4 units on Rafael Cavalcante at +225 to win 3.15 units.

Been out of the loop since Thursday as been on a four-day drinking binge with buddies! Missed the UFC Versus 3 and Strikeforce event, pissed because I didnt make half the bets that I planned on doing Wanted to take Bowles by submission, and add more to Palhares play and add Dongi to a few parlays but never got the chance to do it! Don't regret the play on Cavalcante, at +225 it was too good to pass up on. Ah well on to the next one!

UFC Live on Versus 3 Review:

Total stake: 41.808 units


Total return: 53.43 units

Profit: +11.622 units



Strikeforce: Columbus Review:

Total stake: 1.4 units

Loss: -1.4 units


Overall for both events:


Single outright plays: +4.71 units (Palhares, Weidman, Cavalcante)

Props without arbing: +3.545 units

Arbs: +1.967



Total Profit for UFC Versus 3 and Strikeforce: Columbus: +10.222 units

[omalley21]

Been out of the loop since Thursday as been on a four-day drinking binge with buddies! Missed the UFC Versus 3 and Strikeforce event, pissed because I didnt make half the bets that I planned on doing Wanted to take Bowles by submission, and add more to Palhares play and add Dongi to a few parlays but never got the chance to do it! Don't regret the play on Cavalcante, at +225 it was too good to pass up on. Ah well on to the next one!

UFC Live on Versus 3 Review:

Total stake: 41.808 units


Total return: 53.43 units

Profit: +11.622 units



Strikeforce: Columbus Review:

Total stake: 1.4 units

Loss: -1.4 units


Overall for both events:


Single outright plays: +4.71 units (Palhares, Weidman, Cavalcante)

Props without arbing: +3.545 units

Arbs: +1.967



Total Profit for UFC Versus 3 and Strikeforce: Columbus: +10.222 units

Thats rough. Hendo was -140 at closing. Couldve arbed out on feijao.

[Vaughany]

Thats rough. Hendo was -140 at closing. Couldve arbed out on feijao.

Yeah, actually got to -128 on Pinnacle, but I probly wouldnt of arbed anyway as I'd made almost 12 units from the UFC event so had a nice windfall to fall back on. I'll take the +10.222 units all day, could of been worse!

[Poppa Catfish]

he will just wipe away his tears with his stacks of money

[Vaughany]

UFC Fight Night 24 Plays:

15.919 units on Davis/Nogueira to go the distance at -120 to win 13.266 units;

8.131 units on Davis by decision at +175 to win 14.229 units.