Vaughany's MMA Picks...

BIGDAY · 03-24-11, 02:53 PM

I like Semerzier also. Good luck!

Vaughany · 03-24-11, 02:58 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Summary of UFC Fight Night 24 Plays so far:

15.919 units on Davis/Nogueira to go the distance at -120 to win 13.266 units;

8.131 units on Davis by decision at +175 to win 14.229 units;

0.1 units on Lil Nog Submission of the Night +3300 to win 3.3 units;

10 units on Semerzier at -205 to win 4.878 units.

Adding:

6.5 units on Davis by decision at +125 to win 8.125 units;

6.209 units on Not Davis by decision at +105 to win 6.515 units;

6.5 units on Davis by decision at +120 to win 7.8 units;

6.209 units on Not Davis by decision at +105 to win 6.515 units;

3.507 units profit if Davis wins by decision, 0.03 units profit if not Davis by decision.

Ladle · 03-24-11, 05:21 PM

0.1 units on Lil Nog Submission of the Night +3300 to win 3.3 units

What book gave you that, V?

Love the arb on Davis by decision.

Educ8d Degener8 · 03-24-11, 06:31 PM

You gettin' these lines on Paddy? 5dimes ain't even got the sub of the night props up... and Mackens is -220... really like Mackens though. I'm gonna wait the movement out a bit as it's been coming down steadily since its open at -260... maybe due to the standard overvaluing of a featured (more for personality than fighting skill) TUF alum...

GL

NunyaBidness · 03-24-11, 06:56 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Adding:

6.5 units on Davis by decision at +125 to win 8.125 units;

6.209 units on Davis Not by decision at +105 to win 6.515 units;

6.5 units on Davis by decision at +120 to win 7.8 units;

6.209 units on Davis Not by decision at +105 to win 6.515 units;

3.507 units profit if Davis wins by decision, 0.03 units profit if not Davis by decision.

Is that the way they're wording it "Davis Not by Decision"? That seems significantly different than "Not Davis by Decision".

phillybadboy · 03-24-11, 09:33 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

Is that the way they're wording it "Davis Not by Decision"? That seems significantly different than "Not Davis by Decision".

yes two different things

Vaughany · 03-25-11, 02:59 AM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

Is that the way they're wording it "Davis Not by Decision"? That seems significantly different than "Not Davis by Decision".

Originally posted by phillybadboy

yes two different things

ha yeah ur right guys, should be "Not Davis by decision"...was late last night over here when I wrote them up!

youngbutgood · 03-25-11, 03:06 AM

Any thoughts on the Russow Madsen fight? Russow at +250 seems to have good value

The HOFF · 03-25-11, 06:30 AM

Wish I could get that Nog Submission of the night bet. I'm large on Davis but did get Nog by Sub at +1045. I think the only way Nog can win is to catch Davis in something.

sirchadwick1 · 03-25-11, 07:05 AM

I have a few 2-man parlays involving Phil Davis (Davis + Diaz, Davis + Madsen, Davis + Morecraft), so I like padding those bets with Nog by submission at +1045 (just in case).
Yep Hoff, that's really the only way I see him winning also.

thesox0311 · 03-25-11, 09:54 AM

still waiting on the props lines, but def going with Davis by Dec and maybe hardy/johnson FOTN... GOOD LUCK!

Vaughany · 03-25-11, 10:03 AM

Originally posted by thesox0311

still waiting on the props lines, but def going with Davis by Dec and maybe hardy/johnson FOTN... GOOD LUCK!

Are u only with bodog thn? They seem solid

Vaughany · 03-25-11, 10:06 AM

Originally posted by The HOFF

Wish I could get that Nog Submission of the night bet. I'm large on Davis but did get Nog by Sub at +1045. I think the only way Nog can win is to catch Davis in something.

Originally posted by sirchadwick1

I have a few 2-man parlays involving Phil Davis (Davis + Diaz, Davis + Madsen, Davis + Morecraft), so I like padding those bets with Nog by submission at +1045 (just in case).
Yep Hoff, that's really the only way I see him winning also.

Yee down to +2000 now on PP. I guess Nog is gonna be spending at least half of each 5 minute round on his back so his only chance may be to sub Davis although I find that hard to imagine just because of Davis' body type and smothering top control...he'd have to get really sloppy and complacent to get caught in a sub, Nog isnt exactly the most dynamic sub artist, he's not gonna pull off a Vinny Magalhaes flying armbar off his back!

Vaughany · 03-25-11, 10:11 AM

Originally posted by Ladle

What book gave you that, V?

Love the arb on Davis by decision.

Apologies for the delay, u've probly noticed by now but paddypower have got them up.

Originally posted by Educ8d Degener8

You gettin' these lines on Paddy? 5dimes ain't even got the sub of the night props up... and Mackens is -220... really like Mackens though. I'm gonna wait the movement out a bit as it's been coming down steadily since its open at -260... maybe due to the standard overvaluing of a featured (more for personality than fighting skill) TUF alum...

GL

Yeah not sure if 5dimes are gonna be offering the sub of night type bets, they usually do but then they didnt for the Versus event (Kampmann vs Sanchez) as far as Im aware so maybe they wont. Got Semerzier on Pinnacle close to the opener of -200. I wouldnt of bet straight up on him at anything worse than -220.

Vaughany · 03-25-11, 10:16 AM

Originally posted by youngbutgood

Any thoughts on the Russow Madsen fight? Russow at +250 seems to have good value

Russow at +250 or better is decent value IMO and worth a play. I like Ladle's Madsen by decision hedged with Russow to win play as I find it hard to imagine Madsen finishing Russow. None of the guys who Madsen has beaten previously have Russow NCAA Div 1 wrestlign credentials - Vemola has good wrestling but as we have seen he was a undersized HW and is now rightly fighting at LHW. I have no doubt that Russow would also beat the likes of Justin Wren, Al-Turk and Yvel comfortably so this Madsen line is slightly inflated and Russow's odds should be more like +175 to +200 range IMO.

jennahazeplays · 03-25-11, 10:18 AM

jon jones is a fking stud

Vaughany · 03-25-11, 01:59 PM

Adding:

7.998 units on Morecraft/McCorkle to not go the distance at -200 to win 3.999 units;

0.655 units on McDonald Submission of the Night at +1200 to win 7.860 units.

No way I see Morecraft/McCorkle going the distance - highly doubt it goes past first round!

McDonald Submission of the Night at +1200 is great value IMO. Mayday is a brownbelt already and subbed Godfrey in his debut fight even though he was lying in bed ill just hours before the fight and was advised to pull out by his coaches! Godfrey had previously gone 3 rounds with Wagney Fabiano - a legit BJJ blackbelt. Add the fact that Figueroa is predominantly a stand-up based fighter, if this one goes to the ground I think ther is a good chance Mayday subs him. There isn't great potential for a lot of submissions on this card so I like the chances with this one.

Mr.Kitty · 03-25-11, 02:53 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Adding: 7.998 units on Morecraft/McCorkle to not go the distance at -200 to win 3.999 units;

What sportsbook is this from, paddy has it @ -250. Would like to get a better price because I love this play but I dont wanna lay that much chalk. Btw good job on UFC 128 as usual, solid as a fkn rock you are!

The HOFF · 03-25-11, 04:02 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

No way I see Morecraft/McCorkle going the distance - highly doubt it goes past first round!

This is possibly the bet of the year. If I had this at any book I would max it.

Vaughany · 03-25-11, 04:07 PM

Originally posted by Mr.Kitty

What sportsbook is this from, paddy has it @ -250. Would like to get a better price because I love this play but I dont wanna lay that much chalk. Btw good job on UFC 128 as usual, solid as a fkn rock you are!

Ye was paddy, must of gone to -250 after my "beard" maxed out on it I'm afraid!!

Originally posted by The HOFF

This is possibly the bet of the year. If I had this at any book I would max it.

Yeah unfortunately was max bet.

Vaughany · 03-25-11, 04:15 PM

Additional play:

0.1 units on Damarques Johnson KO of the Night at +2800 to win 2.8 units.

LayingThe$Down · 03-25-11, 05:18 PM

Vaughany, you are the prop master!

I love your Davis by decision prop, I usually avoid props but have made a small play on that one myself. It seems that a finish by Davis will be extremely difficult to accomplish considering Phil's striking skills are still in an early developing stage and Nog's BJJ defense is very solid.

Anyway, I am jealous of your access to all those Euro books. Good luck, man!

Vaughany · 03-25-11, 05:32 PM

Adding:

Parlay: 1 unit on Hendricks, Hathaway, & Madsen by decision to win 2.516 units;

Parlay: 0.5 units on Lentz by decision, & Hathaway by decision to win 2.113 units;

0.05 units on Hathaway Submission of the Night at +1600 to win 0.8 units.

Vaughany · 03-25-11, 07:07 PM

And more!:

0.655 units on Johnson/Hardy Fight of the Night at +550 to win 3.602 units;

2 units on Rumble Johnson KO of the Night at +650 to win 13 units;

0.327 units on Hardy KO of the Night at +1400 to win 4.578 units;

2.5 units on Johnson/Hardy going the distance at +120 to win 3 units.

Might come to regret this three-way hedge, but less than 5 units total stake with potential to make over 10 units if Rumble get KO of the Night so worth it I think. I'd be very surprised if either fighter wins by submission, and if one of them does get the TKO/KO finish I'd also be very surprised if whoever doesnt get KO of the Night.

Vaughany · 03-26-11, 01:38 PM

Bellator 38 Plays:

45 units on Daniel Gracie at -134 to win 33.582 units;

28.5 units on Carpenter at +175 to win 49.875 units.

5.082 units profit if Gracie wins, 4.875 units profit if Carpenter wins.

GoGoGadget · 03-26-11, 04:24 PM

What are the max bets on props and sides on Paddy, I'm thinking of signing up.
thanks

Vaughany · 03-26-11, 04:45 PM

Originally posted by GoGoGadget

What are the max bets on props and sides on Paddy, I'm thinking of signing up.
thanks

Not sure, I signed up over a year ago and was anything between 50 to 750 before they put very low limits on me.

Vaughany · 03-26-11, 05:26 PM

Final Summary of UFC Fight Night 24 Plays:

15.919 units on Davis/Nogueira to go the distance at -120 to win 13.266 units;

6.239 units on Davis/Nogueira to not go the distance at +180 to win 11.23 units;

8.131 units on Davis by decision at +175 to win 14.229 units;

6.5 units on Davis by decision at +125 to win 8.125 units;

6.209 units on Not Davis by decision at +105 to win 6.515 units;

6.5 units on Davis by decision at +120 to win 7.8 units;

6.209 units on Not Davis by decision at +105 to win 6.515 units;

6.4 units on Davis by decision at +125 to win 8 units;

6.233 units on Not Davis by decision at +103 to win 6.42 units;

0.1 units on Lil Nog Submission of the Night +3300 to win 3.3 units;

0.1 units on Davis Submission of the Night at +1200 to win 1.2 units;

15.598 units on Rumble/Hardy to go the distance at +190 to win 29.616 units;

25 units on Rumble/Hardy to not go the distance at -140 to win 17.857 units;

0.655 units on Johnson/Hardy Fight of the Night at +550 to win 3.602 units;

2 units on Rumble Johnson KO of the Night at +650 to win 13 units;

0.327 units on Hardy KO of the Night at +1400 to win 4.578 units;

2.5 units on Johnson/Hardy to go the distance at +120 to win 3 units;

12.4 units on Sadollah/D.Johnson to go the distance at -150 to win 8.267 units;

6.234 units on Sadollah/D.Johnson to not go the distance at +200 to win 12.468 units;

0.1 units on Damarques Johnson KO of the Night at +2800 to win 2.8 units;

10 units on Semerzier at -205 to win 4.878 units.

7.998 units on Morecraft/McCorkle to not go the distance at -200 to win 3.999 units;

0.125 units on Morecraft KO of the Night at +900 to win 1.125 units;

0.655 units on McDonald Submission of the Night at +1200 to win 7.860 units;

Parlay: 1 unit on Hendricks, Hathaway, & Madsen by decision to win 2.516 units;

Parlay: 0.5 units on Lentz by decision, & Hathaway by decision to win 2.113 units;

0.05 units on Hathaway Submission of the Night at +1600 to win 0.8 units.

Ladle · 03-26-11, 05:34 PM

Couldn't help but be amused by the amount of bets you've got on Rogerio/Davis.

Good luck man! Looks like there's great potential for another winning night.

Vaughany · 03-26-11, 05:40 PM

Originally posted by Ladle

Couldn't help but be amused by the amount of bets you've got on Rogerio/Davis.

Good luck man! Looks like there's great potential for another winning night.

ha yeah, looks ridiculous! Safe to say I'll be a happy man if Davis takes the decision!

Vaughany · 03-26-11, 06:20 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Final Summary of UFC Fight Night 24 Plays:

15.919 units on Davis/Nogueira to go the distance at -120 to win 13.266 units;

6.239 units on Davis/Nogueira to not go the distance at +180 to win 11.23 units;

8.131 units on Davis by decision at +175 to win 14.229 units;

6.5 units on Davis by decision at +125 to win 8.125 units;

6.209 units on Not Davis by decision at +105 to win 6.515 units;

6.5 units on Davis by decision at +120 to win 7.8 units;

6.209 units on Not Davis by decision at +105 to win 6.515 units;

6.4 units on Davis by decision at +125 to win 8 units;

6.233 units on Not Davis by decision at +103 to win 6.42 units;

0.1 units on Lil Nog Submission of the Night +3300 to win 3.3 units;

0.1 units on Davis Submission of the Night at +1200 to win 1.2 units;

15.598 units on Rumble/Hardy to go the distance at +190 to win 29.616 units;

25 units on Rumble/Hardy to not go the distance at -140 to win 17.857 units;

0.655 units on Johnson/Hardy Fight of the Night at +550 to win 3.602 units;

2 units on Rumble Johnson KO of the Night at +650 to win 13 units;

0.327 units on Hardy KO of the Night at +1400 to win 4.578 units;

2.5 units on Johnson/Hardy to go the distance at +120 to win 3 units;

12.4 units on Sadollah/D.Johnson to go the distance at -150 to win 8.267 units;

6.234 units on Sadollah/D.Johnson to not go the distance at +200 to win 12.468 units;

0.1 units on Damarques Johnson KO of the Night at +2800 to win 2.8 units;

10 units on Semerzier at -205 to win 4.878 units.

7.998 units on Morecraft/McCorkle to not go the distance at -200 to win 3.999 units;

0.125 units on Morecraft KO of the Night at +900 to win 1.125 units;

0.655 units on McDonald Submission of the Night at +1200 to win 7.860 units;

Parlay: 1 unit on Hendricks, Hathaway, & Madsen by decision to win 2.516 units;

Parlay: 0.5 units on Lentz by decision, & Hathaway by decision to win 2.113 units;

0.05 units on Hathaway Submission of the Night at +1600 to win 0.8 units.

Adding more to the Rumble/Hardy arb:

15.598 units on Rumble/Hardy to go the distance at +205 to win 31.976 units;

27.5 units on Rumble/Hardy to not go the distance at -143 to win 19.25 units.

Vaughany · 03-26-11, 07:25 PM

Adding:

1.248 units on Madsen by decision at +155 to win 1.934 units;

15.598 units on Rumble/Hardy to go the distance at +180 to win 28.076 units;

24.5 units on Rumble/Hardy to not go the distance at -143 to win 17.15 units.

RaiderNation MMA · 03-26-11, 07:44 PM

go rumble!!!

kiefynugs · 03-26-11, 09:08 PM

man V how come your commercials kick so much more ass than in the US..

Rubber Band?!?! lol cracks me up every time

xelance · 03-26-11, 11:17 PM

congrats on another great night vaughany, you are the man.