Ludwig vs Neer breakdown:
Pick: Josh Neer money-line at +110 or better (at the moment I have only put 1.2 units on Neer at +130, however I'm waiting to see the pinnacle line and will probably add more at similar line).
Ludwig’s last two opponents have been rangy technical strikers in Osipzcak and Sadollah – both of whom tried to stand with Ludwig and put in rather lacklustre performances with Sadollah lacking any power or persistence in his takedowns and Osipczak gassing out mid way through the fight. In Josh Neer, Ludwig is going to be facing a different kind of fighter. The Dentist is guy who might not be as technical as Ludwig and not even as technical as Ludwig's two previous opponents, however he makes up for this with experience, a solid chin, toughness and durability, reasonable power and a grinding brawler type line of attack, as well as under-rated ground game.
The key will be Neer being smart and taking the fight to the ground. Neer has used takedowns before, early on in fights but then not stuck to the gameplan and been lured in to brawler type fights. He took down Nate Diaz in their fight early and also comfortably beat Din Thomas by getting takedowns in each round and landing his trademark elbows from top. Neer has some off the best elbows in the business as he showed against another tough, resilient. experienced but taller and bigger opponent in Wisnewski in his UFC comeback fight, absolutely massacring Wisnewski in the clinch against the cage with elbows and body shots to the point where the fight was stopped by the doctors before the third round. This I feel could be a key aspect to consider in the fight with Ludwig, as I believe Neer will look to implement a similar strategy to the Wisnewski fight, except also try and mix in takedowns and use his elbows from the guard. This would be far less risky than getting in to a stand-up clinch battle with Ludwig where he may not have as much success as he did against Wisnewski, who did manage to land some good shots on Neer and at times locked on a plum and did some damage (although his height and reach advantage certainly helped with this which Ludwig wont have). Undoubtedly the best position for Neer to be in this fight would be on top working his GnP, and worst position would be to get in to a striking match at distance where Ludwig would have a better chance of picking him apart. It’s unlikely that Ludwig will look to take Neer down, although he did mix in a couple of takedowns against Sadollah so he may do the same against Neer. However, Neer has a very aggressive guard, he subbed Danzig off his back and the triangle is his go to move when on the ground and is very adept at it, so Ludwig would potentially be in trouble even if he was on top. Ludwig’s takedown defence and overall grappling defence has undoubtedly improved over the last couple of years. I think the first round loss to Beerbohm made Ludwig realise that he needed to work on this aspect of the game. But the fact that Neer is so dangerous against the cage with his elbows means that Neer can attempt takedowns against the cage and even if he is not successful he can still work his elbows and dirty boxing. This means that Ludwig has to worry about two different modes of attack when defending against the cage. I also don’t expect Neer to gas like Osipczak did or be as half-hearted as Sadollah seemed to be in his fight against Ludwig. Everything Sadollah threw had no pop in it, his defence was terrible (no head-movement or footwork and kept his right hand down so Ludwig connected with the left hook time and time again) and his takedown attempts where horrible. He still arguably managed to steal the last round as Ludwig slowed down a lot. Neer on the other hand has shown that he can still be dangerous in the later periods of fights (see Din Thomas, Joe Daddy fights). Should also bare in mind that Neer who has been described the past as a wannabe Diaz brother with his taunting and smack talk has ironically spent some of his camp training with Diaz bros (has fought Nick and Nate in past), Melendez, Roberts, etc… at Cesar Gracie camp, sharpening his game (hopefully stand-up defence and ground game specifically)!
Pick: Josh Neer money-line at +110 or better (at the moment I have only put 1.2 units on Neer at +130, however I'm waiting to see the pinnacle line and will probably add more at similar line).
Ludwig’s last two opponents have been rangy technical strikers in Osipzcak and Sadollah – both of whom tried to stand with Ludwig and put in rather lacklustre performances with Sadollah lacking any power or persistence in his takedowns and Osipczak gassing out mid way through the fight. In Josh Neer, Ludwig is going to be facing a different kind of fighter. The Dentist is guy who might not be as technical as Ludwig and not even as technical as Ludwig's two previous opponents, however he makes up for this with experience, a solid chin, toughness and durability, reasonable power and a grinding brawler type line of attack, as well as under-rated ground game.
The key will be Neer being smart and taking the fight to the ground. Neer has used takedowns before, early on in fights but then not stuck to the gameplan and been lured in to brawler type fights. He took down Nate Diaz in their fight early and also comfortably beat Din Thomas by getting takedowns in each round and landing his trademark elbows from top. Neer has some off the best elbows in the business as he showed against another tough, resilient. experienced but taller and bigger opponent in Wisnewski in his UFC comeback fight, absolutely massacring Wisnewski in the clinch against the cage with elbows and body shots to the point where the fight was stopped by the doctors before the third round. This I feel could be a key aspect to consider in the fight with Ludwig, as I believe Neer will look to implement a similar strategy to the Wisnewski fight, except also try and mix in takedowns and use his elbows from the guard. This would be far less risky than getting in to a stand-up clinch battle with Ludwig where he may not have as much success as he did against Wisnewski, who did manage to land some good shots on Neer and at times locked on a plum and did some damage (although his height and reach advantage certainly helped with this which Ludwig wont have). Undoubtedly the best position for Neer to be in this fight would be on top working his GnP, and worst position would be to get in to a striking match at distance where Ludwig would have a better chance of picking him apart. It’s unlikely that Ludwig will look to take Neer down, although he did mix in a couple of takedowns against Sadollah so he may do the same against Neer. However, Neer has a very aggressive guard, he subbed Danzig off his back and the triangle is his go to move when on the ground and is very adept at it, so Ludwig would potentially be in trouble even if he was on top. Ludwig’s takedown defence and overall grappling defence has undoubtedly improved over the last couple of years. I think the first round loss to Beerbohm made Ludwig realise that he needed to work on this aspect of the game. But the fact that Neer is so dangerous against the cage with his elbows means that Neer can attempt takedowns against the cage and even if he is not successful he can still work his elbows and dirty boxing. This means that Ludwig has to worry about two different modes of attack when defending against the cage. I also don’t expect Neer to gas like Osipczak did or be as half-hearted as Sadollah seemed to be in his fight against Ludwig. Everything Sadollah threw had no pop in it, his defence was terrible (no head-movement or footwork and kept his right hand down so Ludwig connected with the left hook time and time again) and his takedown attempts where horrible. He still arguably managed to steal the last round as Ludwig slowed down a lot. Neer on the other hand has shown that he can still be dangerous in the later periods of fights (see Din Thomas, Joe Daddy fights). Should also bare in mind that Neer who has been described the past as a wannabe Diaz brother with his taunting and smack talk has ironically spent some of his camp training with Diaz bros (has fought Nick and Nate in past), Melendez, Roberts, etc… at Cesar Gracie camp, sharpening his game (hopefully stand-up defence and ground game specifically)!
Yes because that's the same as atroshis!