Vaughany's MMA Picks...

**Vaughany** · 01-20-12, 10:17 AM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

V
No Brenneman parlay additions?

He is my only big play for the night (4u), I have 2u on Miller too but will arb out on either if given the opportunity

I personally dont see any value in Brenneman at -300. If I could get him by decision I'd consider it, but to consider -300 he'd have to have the clear striking and grappling advantage which I dont think he has. As Nunya said above or on previous page, this may be the first fight where Roberts actually has advantage standing. Roberts also has more dangerous BJJ, and isnt exactly a novice wrestler (NAIA All-American). Brenneman's cardio and determination should be the difference but those advantages don't warrant the -300 to -370 odds I'm seeing him at IMO.

**Beelzebubzy** · 01-20-12, 10:28 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

I personally dont see any value in Brenneman at -300. If I could get him by decision I'd consider it, but to consider -300 he'd have to have the clear striking and grappling advantage which I dont think he has. As Nunya said above or on previous page, this may be the first fight where Roberts actually has advantage standing. Roberts also has more dangerous BJJ, and isnt exactly a novice wrestler (NAIA All-American). Brenneman's cardio and determination should be the difference but those advantages don't warrant the -300 to -370 odds I'm seeing him at IMO.

Thanks
I grabbed it at -280, so I need to play the waiting game with the degens adding him to parlays
I am most likely hedging out/ arbing out of all plays tonight

**Vaughany** · 01-20-12, 03:46 PM

Adding:

Parlay (double): 5 units on Camoes (-300) & Schafer (-150) to win 6.111 units.

**Vaughany** · 01-20-12, 03:54 PM

"That was three months ago. Not much has changed in Neer's arsenal other than he's focused more on his wrestling in camp."

That's what I like to hear...from MMA junkie interview with Neer

**Vaughany** · 01-20-12, 05:19 PM

Summary of UFC on FX 1 plays:

0.583 units on Jim Miller by Submission at +220 to win 1.283 units;

1.2 units on Neer at +130 to win 1.56 units;

10 units on Neer at +105 to win 10.5 units;

4.286 units on Neer Inside the Distance at +210 to win 9.001 units;

hedged with:

3.461 units on Ludwig/Neer to Go the Distance at +130 to win 4.499 units;

0.229 units on Neer by Submission at +600 to win 1.374 units;

0.5 units on Neer by Submission at +800 to win 4 units;

1.25 units on Morecraft by Submission at +600 to win 7.5 units;

2.835 units on Barry/Morecraft to Not go the Distance at -225 to win 1.26 units;

2.835 units on Barry/Morecraft to End Under 2.5 Rounds at -225 to win 1.26 units;

Parlay (double): 5 units on Camoes (-300) & Schafer (-150) to win 6.111 units.

Have a guaranteed 11.88 units (and possible 14.17 units) profit from the Rigondeux/Ramos boxing fight so that will be a nice back up in case Ludwig spoils the party. Also after arbing out with Pineda at -120 I now have a risk free play on Schilling for 2 units profit if he wins or overall stake back if Pineda wins. Will make risk free 1.567 units profit if Miller/Guillard goes distance as took that at +200 and arbed out with Not distance at -162.5 and -187.5. Also have following parlay which I won't include on my record as it involves some soccer plays as well:

5 units on Camoes (-300), Ivory Coast to beat Sudan (-450), & Senegal Draw No Bet against Zambia (-400) to win 5.185 units.

**Vaughany** · 01-20-12, 06:13 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Summary of UFC on FX 1 plays:

0.583 units on Jim Miller by Submission at +220 to win 1.283 units;

1.2 units on Neer at +130 to win 1.56 units;

10 units on Neer at +105 to win 10.5 units;

4.286 units on Neer Inside the Distance at +210 to win 9.001 units;

hedged with:

3.461 units on Ludwig/Neer to Go the Distance at +130 to win 4.499 units;

0.229 units on Neer by Submission at +600 to win 1.374 units;

0.5 units on Neer by Submission at +800 to win 4 units;

1.25 units on Morecraft by Submission at +600 to win 7.5 units;

2.835 units on Barry/Morecraft to Not go the Distance at -225 to win 1.26 units;

2.835 units on Barry/Morecraft to End Under 2.5 Rounds at -225 to win 1.26 units;

Parlay (double): 5 units on Camoes (-300) & Schafer (-150) to win 6.111 units.

Have a guaranteed 11.88 units (and possible 14.17 units) profit from the Rigondeux/Ramos boxing fight so that will be a nice back up in case Ludwig spoils the party. Also after arbing out with Pineda at -120 I now have a risk free play on Schilling for 2 units profit if he wins or overall stake back if Pineda wins. Will make risk free 1.567 units profit if Miller/Guillard goes distance as took that at +200 and arbed out with Not distance at -162.5 and -187.5. Also have following parlay which I won't include on my record as it involves some soccer plays as well:

5 units on Camoes (-300), Ivory Coast to beat Sudan (-450), & Senegal Draw No Bet against Zambia (-400) to win 5.185 units.

Adding:

3.21 units on Denis (-270) & Camoes (-310) to win 2.608 units.

**more_betterness** · 01-20-12, 06:14 PM

Denis looks huge compared to Sandoval. Think he takes this one, nice play.

**more_betterness** · 01-20-12, 06:15 PM

Holy shit!!!

**Vaughany** · 01-20-12, 06:17 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Adding:

3.21 units on Denis (-270) & Camoes (-310) to win 2.608 units.

Nice start, should of gone bigger! Wanna see similar elbows from Neer tonight. Hopefully Camoes doesn't f**K this parlay up.

**The HOFF** · 01-20-12, 06:22 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Adding:

3.21 units on Denis (-270) & Camoes (-310) to win 2.608 units.

Nice. I actually threw this one together as well this morning for something small.

**Jesus Christ** · 01-20-12, 06:27 PM

That was a thing of beauty.

**MexicanStallion** · 01-20-12, 07:16 PM

Congrats on your solid start. Best of luck the rest of the night

**Vaughany** · 01-20-12, 07:17 PM

As a slight hedge to Schafer play I'm adding:

Parlay: 1.605 units on Rivera/Schafer Under 2.5 Rounds (-205), Not Guillard by Submission (-11000), Ellenberger (-255), & Ben Henderson (+105) to win 5.272 units.

Rivera has nothing to lose as he's retiring so will probably be aggressive and look for the finish. Hopefully Schafer will use this to his advantage and get the takedown and finish within first two rounds. If it does get past mid way point one of them will probably be gassed out by end of second round - hopefully Rivera.

**Vaughany** · 01-20-12, 07:17 PM

Originally posted by MexicanStallion

Congrats on your solid start. Best of luck the rest of the night

Gracias mi amigo.

**NunyaBidness** · 01-20-12, 07:19 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Parlay: 1.605 units on Rivera/Schafer Under 2.5 Rounds (-205), Not Guillard by Submission (-11000), Ellenberger (-255), & Ben Henderson (+105) to win 5.272 units.

How much does the -11000 add to the price?

**Vaughany** · 01-20-12, 07:21 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

How much does the -11000 add to the price?

Barely anything...just did it for shits and giggles! Miller aint tapping to strikes son!

**NunyaBidness** · 01-20-12, 07:21 PM

Enjoy that extra 60 cents! 61 to be exact!

**Vaughany** · 01-20-12, 07:37 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Summary of UFC on FX 1 plays:

0.583 units on Jim Miller by Submission at +220 to win 1.283 units;

1.2 units on Neer at +130 to win 1.56 units;

10 units on Neer at +105 to win 10.5 units;

4.286 units on Neer Inside the Distance at +210 to win 9.001 units;

hedged with:

3.461 units on Ludwig/Neer to Go the Distance at +130 to win 4.499 units;

0.229 units on Neer by Submission at +600 to win 1.374 units;

0.5 units on Neer by Submission at +800 to win 4 units;

1.25 units on Morecraft by Submission at +600 to win 7.5 units;

2.835 units on Barry/Morecraft to Not go the Distance at -225 to win 1.26 units;

2.835 units on Barry/Morecraft to End Under 2.5 Rounds at -225 to win 1.26 units;

Parlay (double): 5 units on Camoes (-300) & Schafer (-150) to win 6.111 units.

Have a guaranteed 11.88 units (and possible 14.17 units) profit from the Rigondeux/Ramos boxing fight so that will be a nice back up in case Ludwig spoils the party. Also after arbing out with Pineda at -120 I now have a risk free play on Schilling for 2 units profit if he wins or overall stake back if Pineda wins. Will make risk free 1.567 units profit if Miller/Guillard goes distance as took that at +200 and arbed out with Not distance at -162.5 and -187.5. Also have following parlay which I won't include on my record as it involves some soccer plays as well:

5 units on Camoes (-300), Ivory Coast to beat Sudan (-450), & Senegal Draw No Bet against Zambia (-400) to win 5.185 units.

Just got Ludwig at +140 and +135 and Neer at Evens and -110 so will now make risk free 12 units if Ludwig wins!

Lot of late money coming in on Neer who is -150 to 165 range now.

**Vaughany** · 01-20-12, 07:52 PM

Adding:

3.371 units on Shalorus at -105 to win 3.21 units.

**gabe** · 01-20-12, 07:56 PM

So you're backing off your biggest play to make a risk free 12 units? How many units do you win if he still wins?

**Vaughany** · 01-20-12, 07:59 PM

Originally posted by gabe

So you're backing off your biggest play to make a risk free 12 units? How many units do you win if he still wins?

Well not really backing off because I'll still make the same as what I would of - just being smart. Depends how he wins but at least 12 or 13 units. If he wins by Sub will be another 4 or 5 on top of that.

**Vaughany** · 01-20-12, 08:13 PM

Shalorus is horrible...needs to be cut!

**BIGDAY** · 01-20-12, 08:21 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Just got Ludwig at +140 and +135 and Neer at Evens and -110 so will now make risk free 12 units if Ludwig wins!

Lot of late money coming in on Neer who is -150 to 165 range now.

No kidding. Guess I was lucky in getting Neer at +130. I think he wins though and will ride Neer in this one.

**Vaughany** · 01-20-12, 09:03 PM

Another 4.5 units profit if Neer wins after adding more to Neer at -110 and arbing with Ludwig at +135.

**Vaughany** · 01-20-12, 10:49 PM

Neer gets the win and sub and Miller gets the sub..icing on the cake! Bit annoyed I didnt have a big play on Miller - even told Nick Kalikas I'd play him at -150 but never pulled the trigger. His grappling and will to win is just on a whole different level - especially against likes of Guillard.

**Vaughany** · 01-20-12, 10:56 PM

Guy Mezger's hand after being stabbed!...

Full story here...http://www.cagepotato.com/awesome-st...ag-last-month/

**Vaughany** · 01-20-12, 11:25 PM

UFC on FX 1 Review:

Originally posted by Vaughany

Summary of UFC on FX 1 plays:

0.583 units on Jim Miller by Submission at +220 to win 1.283 units;

1.2 units on Neer at +130 to win 1.56 units;

10 units on Neer at +105 to win 10.5 units;

4.286 units on Neer Inside the Distance at +210 to win 9.001 units;

hedged with:

3.461 units on Ludwig/Neer to Go the Distance at +130 to win 4.499 units;

0.229 units on Neer by Submission at +600 to win 1.374 units;

0.5 units on Neer by Submission at +800 to win 4 units;

1.25 units on Morecraft by Submission at +600 to win 7.5 units;

2.835 units on Barry/Morecraft to Not go the Distance at -225 to win 1.26 units;

2.835 units on Barry/Morecraft to End Under 2.5 Rounds at -225 to win 1.26 units;

Parlay (double): 5 units on Camoes (-300) & Schafer (-150) to win 6.111 units.

Have a guaranteed 11.88 units (and possible 14.17 units) profit from the Rigondeux/Ramos boxing fight so that will be a nice back up in case Ludwig spoils the party. Also after arbing out with Pineda at -120 I now have a risk free play on Schilling for 2 units profit if he wins or overall stake back if Pineda wins. Will make risk free 1.567 units profit if Miller/Guillard goes distance as took that at +200 and arbed out with Not distance at -162.5 and -187.5. Also have following parlay which I won't include on my record as it involves some soccer plays as well:

5 units on Camoes (-300), Ivory Coast to beat Sudan (-450), & Senegal Draw No Bet against Zambia (-400) to win 5.185 units.

Originally posted by Vaughany

Adding:

3.21 units on Denis (-270) & Camoes (-310) to win 2.608 units.

Originally posted by Vaughany

As a slight hedge to Schafer play I'm adding:

Parlay: 1.605 units on Rivera/Schafer Under 2.5 Rounds (-205), Not Guillard by Submission (-11000), Ellenberger (-255), & Ben Henderson (+105) to win 5.272 units.

Rivera has nothing to lose as he's retiring so will probably be aggressive and look for the finish. Hopefully Schafer will use this to his advantage and get the takedown and finish within first two rounds. If it does get past mid way point one of them will probably be gassed out by end of second round - hopefully Rivera.

Originally posted by Vaughany

Adding:

3.371 units on Shalorus at -105 to win 3.21 units.

Originally posted by Vaughany

Another 4.5 units profit if Neer wins after adding more to Neer at -110 and arbing with Ludwig at +135.

Total stake: 38.76 units

Return: 58.524 units

Profit: +19.764 units (24.264 units inc' arb)

Pending parlays:

Parlay: 1.605 units on Rivera/Schafer Under 2.5 Rounds (-205), Not Guillard by Submission (-11000), Ellenberger (-255), & Ben Henderson (+105) to win 5.272 units;

Parlay: 5 units on Camoes (-300), Ivory Coast to beat Sudan (-450), & Senegal Draw No Bet against Zambia (-400) to win 5.185 units. (Won't include this one on record as it involves soccer games)

**BIGDAY** · 01-21-12, 12:12 AM

Very nice work sir!

**MexicanStallion** · 01-21-12, 04:12 AM

Congrats on the great night. Wish I would have dabbled with some outcomes or parlays as I did pretty well. On to the next card.

**bjpenn85** · 01-21-12, 04:37 AM

congrats, neer by submission @9.0 baby!!!

**Eccocide** · 01-21-12, 12:03 PM

Nice job on Neer. Looked scary there at the start but he's got a iron jaw lol.

**Vaughany** · 01-21-12, 06:55 PM

Originally posted by BIGDAY

Very nice work sir!

Originally posted by MexicanStallion

Congrats on the great night. Wish I would have dabbled with some outcomes or parlays as I did pretty well. On to the next card.

Originally posted by bjpenn85

congrats, neer by submission @9.0 baby!!!

Originally posted by Eccocide

Nice job on Neer. Looked scary there at the start but he's got a iron jaw lol.

**Vaughany** · 01-21-12, 07:24 PM

UFC on FOX 2 plays so far:

25 units on Evans at -145 to win 17.241 units;

Parlay: 0.654 units Barboza (-290), Evans (-150), & Benson Henderson (+105) to win 2.351 units;

Parlay: 3.241 units on Saffiedine/Stinson to Go Over 1.5 Rounds (-170), & Evans (-140) to win 5.583 units;

Parlay: 0.324 units on Woodley/Mein Over 2.5 Rounds, Evans (-140), Condit (+145), & Benson Henderson (+105) to win 4.107 units.

**Beelzebubzy** · 01-21-12, 08:02 PM

You got plays on condit and Diaz?

**gabe** · 01-21-12, 08:17 PM

Wow, I think you're gonna get a bad beat on Evans.