Vaughany's MMA Picks...

[gabe]

Einemo was winning 'til he gassed out.

Anyone got a link to Jorgensen vs Pickett? mma-geeks doesn't have it.

[koscheckbaby]

Thanks Man. Always willing to back up your picks with well thought out analysis. We appreciate it.

By the way, I loved Russow against Herman when that fight was announced. Herman gasses out because he doesn't even commit to his training, while Russow don't quit. Seemed like a mismatch on just heart.

[more_betterness]

Yes Sirrr Maia/Weidman should cancel each other out, and I cant see Bisping subbing Sonnen.

Completely agree with this and with everything in this and your previous post, the fact that its a 5 rounder sealed this for me. Davis' most likely path to victory is a sub, and he definitely has the leverage and the front headlock series to hit a sub from some pretty unorthodox positions. That being said I still agree it is not an extremely likely outcome.

[gabe]

If you guys feel that way about Evans, then I am assuming you have already maxed out that Evans line.

I personally think Evans should be in the -200 to -240 area but think Mr. Wonderful has a good shot at pulling out a win, so I haven't bet him yet. Hoping he gets to at least +200.

[NunyaBidness]

If you think Evans should be in the -200 to -240 range, why haven't you maxed him?

And why would you even be considering betting on Davis at +200 if you thought that was true?

[Vaughany]

Ha yeah tht's a bit confusing Gabriel! If u think Evans should be -200 to -240 range than surely u'd only take Davis at better than +240 at least?!

[gabe]

I thought Hominick should be a -700 favorite but he opened at -400 and I didn't bet on him. Just because the fighter should be a big favorite doesn't mean he's going to win.

I thought Hominick should be a -700 favorite and by fight time he was -750 and I bet Korean Zombie at like +435. Just because I felt Hominick would be a big favorite did not mean I was confident he would win the fight. I didn't even make him a pick.

Going by what you're saying, the only time I could ever bet on an underdog is if I assumed he was going to be the favorite? I thought Jared Papazian should have been +350 but that didn't mean I thought he was going to lose. I thought Easton should have been a huge favorite, does that mean I should have maxed him even though I thought he would lose?

You're not making sense to me.

[Beelzebubzy]

Does anyone here have a 9-5 Or am I the only one?

[NunyaBidness]

Remedial gambling math for dumb-dumbs:

If the probability of event a = .66667 then a price of better than -200 = +EV
If the probability of event a = .66667 then a price of worse than -200 = -EV

If the probability of event not a = .333333 then a price of better than +200 = +EV
If the probability of event not a = .333333 then a price of worse than +200 = -EV

Test question:
What is the minimum price necessary for a fair coin flip to have positive expectation?

Extra credit:
And if you get less than that price, BUT KNEW it was going to come up heads and were correct, did you make a good bet or a bad bet?

[NunyaBidness]

Does anyone here have a 9-5 Or am I the only one?

jobs, blech.

[Vaughany]

Does anyone here have a 9-5 Or am I the only one?

haha Mines 8.30 till 5! But I only spend about a hour of that doing actual work work!

[Vaughany]

I thought Hominick should be a -700 favorite but he opened at -400 and I didn't bet on him. Just because the fighter should be a big favorite doesn't mean he's going to win.

I thought Hominick should be a -700 favorite and by fight time he was -750 and I bet Korean Zombie at like +435. Just because I felt Hominick would be a big favorite did not mean I was confident he would win the fight. I didn't even make him a pick.

Going by what you're saying, the only time I could ever bet on an underdog is if I assumed he was going to be the favorite? I thought Jared Papazian should have been +350 but that didn't mean I thought he was going to lose. I thought Easton should have been a huge favorite, does that mean I should have maxed him even though I thought he would lose?

You're not making sense to me.

So are u saying that you thought Rashad would be -200 to -240 or that you thought the public would push it to those odds?

Nunya is thinking in relation to Kelly criterion...u are clearly on complete opposite of tht

[Beelzebubzy]

haha Mines 8.30 till 5! But I only spend about a hour of that doing actual work work!

Im 8:00 to 5 or 4:30 depending on the day (MBA student at night)

But I want a job that requires one of work!

[NunyaBidness]

This is way more basic than kelly. This is pure EV calculation.

[gabe]

So are u saying that you thought Rashad would be -200 to -240 or that you thought the public would push it to those odds?

Nunya is thinking in relation to Kelly criterion...u are clearly on complete opposite of tht

My thinking was/is Rashad would open at -200 or be -200 or more by fight time.

I guess if you had my thinking, you would bet on him now, then wait for Davis line to grow as expected then arb out.

Just because I expect a fighter to be an underdog does not mean I expect him to lose. Again, I expected Papazian to be a huge dog but also expected him to win. My prediction of the line does not reflect what I feel will happen in the fight.

[Vaughany]

Okay, well from how u said it it looks like u wer saying that u have capped Rashad (through your own calculations) at -200 to -240 range

[NunyaBidness]

There's a big difference between saying "I expect Rashad to open in the -200 to -240 range" to your statement of "I personally think Evans should be in the -200 to -240 area"

[gabe]

It means the same to me. I mean, I expected Papazian to be a big dog but also thought he should have been one. It's not like I had him capped as a big favorite.

I pretty much have Evans/Rashad capped at the current odds, but did expect Evans to open as a bigger favorite. I think Evans should be the favorite and would like to see him fight Jon Jones, but I gotta stick to my gut. It won't let me bet against Davis. I see him having a very good chance at winning, but don't think it's worth it until he becomes at least +175. Regardless of the line, I wouldn't bet on Rashad. Even if he miraculously/suddenly became +120. My gut is telling me Phil Davis. Gotta either play him or stay away, but have to like the line to play him.

[NunyaBidness]

hopeless

[Vaughany]

lol

[gabe]

Hopeless of what, becoming like you? LOL I'm content with doing things the way I'm doing them. If I ever start losing, then I'll come to you for advice. But given the history of fighters you've been backing and fighters I've been backing over the past few months, seems like you should be offering to bl0w me for my advice.

[Mr.Kitty]

Does anyone here have a 9-5 Or am I the only one?

jobs, blech.

haha Mines 8.30 till 5! But I only spend about a hour of that doing actual work work!

Talking about jobs and careers, does anyone here have LinkedIn?

Is it worth getting an account?

[Beelzebubzy]

Talking about jobs and careers, does anyone here have LinkedIn?

Is it worth getting an account?

I work in hr. I have been hired twice off o linkedin once by a big four. I highly recommend getting one

[Vaughany]

Talking about jobs and careers, does anyone here have LinkedIn?

Is it worth getting an account?

I work in hr. I have been hired twice off o linkedin once by a big four. I highly recommend getting one

I've got one but haven't really updated it with much info or anything. Did u put ur CV and all tht shiiit on urs Bubzy? Gonna start lookin for a new job in summer/end of year so will have to update it at some point

[Educ8d Degener8]

Remedial gambling math for dumb-dumbs:

If the probability of event a = .66667 then a price of better than -200 = +EV
If the probability of event a = .66667 then a price of worse than -200 = -EV

If the probability of event not a = .333333 then a price of better than +200 = +EV
If the probability of event not a = .333333 then a price of worse than +200 = -EV

Test question:
What is the minimum price necessary for a fair coin flip to have positive expectation?

Extra credit:
And if you get less than that price, BUT KNEW it was going to come up heads and were correct, did you make a good bet or a bad bet?

+101... "fair coin" is .5


If I'm reading the extra credit correctly, yes, take the bet, as you've defined your probability of a losing bet as zero, thus guaranteeing a profit on your bet regardless of how minimal it may be... free money is free money.

E(x) = (p(w) x po(w)) + (p(l) x po(l)); where p(l) = 0, and p(w) = 1

reduces to

E(x) = (p(w) x po(w)), so E(x) is positive even if you put Overeem vs Dream Can odds on betting heads.

[gabe]

Man, I gotta admit. I don't understand any of that. I see shit like "E(x) = (p(w)..." and I completely tune out.

Just always hated math. It's the devils language.

[Educ8d Degener8]

Man, I gotta admit. I don't understand any of that. I see shit like "E(x) = (p(w)..." and I completely tune out.

Just always hated math. It's the devils language.

Gabe, although blanketed in jeering words above, the guys are really trying to explain to you that if you are capping a line as you say, there are inherent expectations for profitability and other sh*t like that.

Mathematically speaking, if you believe Rashad could conceivably be valued at -240 (70.5%), you are not making a good play if you bet Davis at +200 because that inherently suggests Davis has a 33% chance of winning when you've assessed his probability at 29.5% by setting Rashad at -240. I say good, meaning "by definition". Again, if you're going off your gut-feel, then by all means, ignore the math...

Math is the truth brah...

[Beelzebubzy]

I've got one but haven't really updated it with much info or anything. Did u put ur CV and all tht shiiit on urs Bubzy? Gonna start lookin for a new job in summer/end of year so will have to update it at some point

I had my resume up there at the time. the big 4 company found me based upon skills + groups joined.

The second job, I applied for on LinkedIn.

I would go right to LinkedIn as a candidate with a small network.
Good luck in your job search

[NunyaBidness]

+101... "fair coin" is .5


If I'm reading the extra credit correctly, yes, take the bet, as you've defined your probability of a losing bet as zero, thus guaranteeing a profit on your bet regardless of how minimal it may be... free money is free money.

E(x) = (p(w) x po(w)) + (p(l) x po(l)); where p(l) = 0, and p(w) = 1

reduces to

E(x) = (p(w) x po(w)), so E(x) is positive even if you put Overeem vs Dream Can odds on betting heads.

Obviously my quiz was for Gabe only, figured no one else here would have trouble with it.

I guess I should've phrased the extra credit differently, I meant "If you're getting less than +100 on the flip of a fair coin, but you have a gut feeling that this time it just has to be heads, etc. . ."

[gabe]

Gabe, although blanketed in jeering words above, the guys are really trying to explain to you that if you are capping a line as you say, there are inherent expectations for profitability and other sh*t like that.

Mathematically speaking, if you believe Rashad could conceivably be valued at -240 (70.5%), you are not making a good play if you bet Davis at +200 because that inherently suggests Davis has a 33% chance of winning when you've assessed his probability at 29.5% by setting Rashad at -240. I say good, meaning "by definition". Again, if you're going off your gut-feel, then by all means, ignore the math...

Math is the truth brah...

I don't see value in Rashad being -240, I just assumed the public would really favor him. If my gut is telling me not to bet on him, I wouldn't even take him at plus money.

But yeah- my original point was that anyone who feels confident in Rashad, the current line is a steal. I predict him being at least -200 by fight time.

[Vaughany]

Condit vs Rory Mac video... http://www.mmavideofights.net/382/ca...video-ufc-115/

[gabe]

can u find tyson griffin vs lentz and dunham?

[Mr.Kitty]

I work in hr. I have been hired twice off o linkedin once by a big four. I highly recommend getting one

I've got one but haven't really updated it with much info or anything. Did u put ur CV and all tht shiiit on urs Bubzy? Gonna start lookin for a new job in summer/end of year so will have to update it at some point

I had my resume up there at the time. the big 4 company found me based upon skills + groups joined. The second job, I applied for on LinkedIn. I would go right to LinkedIn as a candidate with a small network. Good luck in your job search

Thanks for the answers lads! Signed up for a LinkedIn account last night but haven´t had time to fill in all the information, upload my resumé, join groups etc.

It definitely looks good tho, and its very reassuring to hear someone who´s actually used LinkedIn to successfully get a good job.

[NunyaBidness]

can u find tyson griffin vs lentz and dunham?

Here you go, pal.

http://bit.ly/zhlC0U

[Beelzebubzy]

Here you go, pal.

http://bit.ly/zhlC0U

what I recall from that fight is Dunham taking Griffins back and staying there for at least one round