Bjpenn85s 100 unit in 2016 if not im done with SBR-O thread

[Hugo de Naranja]

Porier-Bisping parlay is +135 or so. I think that's a good wager, and very easy to hedge if Porier hits first and you have a decent sized bet. Hendo's path to victory is only a KO in my opinion.

I like the idea but I'm going to wait for Bisping -3.5 to get a little better value. I think he either gets KO'ed or wins by a very wide decision/gets a finish. I like a Poirier/Brunson Parlay. Hit that for a unit yesterday at (+165).

[xagonzx]

I like the idea but I'm going to wait for Bisping -3.5 to get a little better value. I think he either gets KO'ed or wins by a very wide decision/gets a finish. I like a Poirier/Brunson Parlay. Hit that for a unit yesterday at (+165).

Bisping -3.5 would be better value for sure, but I doubt the line for that will be out before Saturday and I feel good about Porier so I decided to pull the trigger now.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Bisping -3.5 would be better value for sure, but I doubt the line for that will be out before Saturday and I feel good about Porier so I decided to pull the trigger now.

One thing you can to solve this problem is making an open parlay. That means you take create a parlay with some selections that are currently on the board and select the option to have open spaces in the parlay so you can finish it later. For instance, since I like the value on Poirier I made two 3-team open parlays that consist of Poirier and 2 open spots. When I find other selections I like later in the year, I can add them to that parlay. I'll probably add Bisping -3.5 to one of them when that prop comes out in a few weeks.

[bjpenn85]

This option was stripped at least for me approx 4 weeks ago. Constructing parlays are quite difficult now in comparison, i am pretty conservative with parlays. I do like the Brunson/Poirier parlay though, it should hit.

[getlucky2win]

This option was stripped at least for me approx 4 weeks ago. Constructing parlays are quite difficult now in comparison, i am pretty conservative with parlays. I do like the Brunson/Poirier parlay though, it should hit.

Yeah it's funny that they cut winners off of open parlays and open teasers. And cut limits. then eventually boot u. The teasers are what really hurt as I don't bet many parlays. But i bet fckloads of teasers

[bjpenn85]

Yeah it's funny that they cut winners off of open parlays and open teasers. And cut limits. then eventually boot u. The teasers are what really hurt as I don't bet many parlays. But i bet fckloads of teasers

What is teaser? How do you use them?

[xagonzx]

What is teaser? How do you use them?

I forgot you had mentioned being restricted on parlays, sorry!

A teaser is used for spread-betting (basketball, football mainly). It's a parlay, with an enhanced line for the spread but a lower payout.
For a random example, making up numbers:
Team A has a point spread of +1.5 (-110) . Team B has a point spread of +2 (-110).
-A parlay of these would need both teams to cover their respective spreads (+1.5 & 2) and would pay +265 or so.
-- Say you aren't so confident that those spreads aren't quite enough. You can make a "teaser" bet, say of +5. That means Team A's spread is now +6.5 and teams B's is +7. Both teams still have to hit to win the bet, but the odds are now ~-120.

I also use them a bit during basketball season. You can use more than 2 teams, but it's simpler to explain with less teams. Hope it made sense.

[xagonzx]

One thing you can to solve this problem is making an open parlay. That means you take create a parlay with some selections that are currently on the board and select the option to have open spaces in the parlay so you can finish it later. For instance, since I like the value on Poirier I made two 3-team open parlays that consist of Poirier and 2 open spots. When I find other selections I like later in the year, I can add them to that parlay. I'll probably add Bisping -3.5 to one of them when that prop comes out in a few weeks.

Damn you Hugo!... haha. Great idea though, I didn't think of that. I actually made the parlay at Bovada which doesn't even have the -3.5 option. But I will likely take your advice with my 5 dimes account, as i like the idea. Thanks!

[bjpenn85]

I forgot you had mentioned being restricted on parlays, sorry!

A teaser is used for spread-betting (basketball, football mainly). It's a parlay, with an enhanced line for the spread but a lower payout.
For a random example, making up numbers:
Team A has a point spread of +1.5 (-110) . Team B has a point spread of +2 (-110).
-A parlay of these would need both teams to cover their respective spreads (+1.5 & 2) and would pay +265 or so.
-- Say you aren't so confident that those spreads aren't quite enough. You can make a "teaser" bet, say of +5. That means Team A's spread is now +6.5 and teams B's is +7. Both teams still have to hit to win the bet, but the odds are now ~-120.

I also use them a bit during basketball season. You can use more than 2 teams, but it's simpler to explain with less teams. Hope it made sense.

I didnt understand anything of that. Whats the upside with getting lower value if both have to hit? -110 + -110 is +265 , that i understand.

The rest makes no sense.

[bjpenn85]

Addig:

3 units on Chas skelly, Belal Muhammed @ evens to win - 3 units

Im so pissed of not getting Belal Muhammed at -250...so mad. Both fighters meets cans. Its can city, if anyone of these guys looses its good old variance. Both skelly and Muhammed is way better, odds reflect that.

[getlucky2win]

teasers are great for nfl. basically u are buying pts on multiple teams and parlaying them. google should answer any questions if you are interested

[Hugo de Naranja]

I didnt understand anything of that. Whats the upside with getting lower value if both have to hit? -110 + -110 is +265 , that i understand.

The rest makes no sense.

Teasers make each parlay leg easier to hit. They essentially give you more room for error. If a team is a (+2) dog and they lose by 5, a bet against the original spread would lose. But with a +4 teaser you get a wider spread where the (+2) dog would cover since the teaser spread is (+6). Since the extra points cushion makes it easier to hit each leg, the value is lower and you have to do multiple legs to get the same value as a regular spread play.

[xagonzx]

I didnt understand anything of that. Whats the upside with getting lower value if both have to hit? -110 + -110 is +265 , that i understand.

The rest makes no sense.

Hugo explained it more in depth in the comment above this one. Basically, it gives you a wider point-spread, which makes it more likely to hit, which is why it is reduced odds. Using my example still, it's easier for the teams to cover +6.5 & +7 spreads than it is for them to cover the original +1.5 and +2 spreads.

[bjpenn85]

Addig:

3 units on Chas skelly, Belal Muhammed @ evens to win - 3 units

Im so pissed of not getting Belal Muhammed at -250...so mad. Both fighters meets cans. Its can city, if anyone of these guys looses its good old variance. Both skelly and Muhammed is way better, odds reflect that.

Im not sure im on the right side here. In hindsight i should have passed on Skelly, his striking is actually ver bad, worse than i remember. im letting it ride, but im not happy with this play, as it stands.

[xagonzx]

Im not sure im on the right side here. In hindsight i should have passed on Skelly, his striking is actually ver bad, worse than i remember. im letting it ride, but im not happy with this play, as it stands.

I think, odds aside, Skelly wins this. Not sure what you got him at, but I'm passing at the (-175) to (-185) I'm seeing him at right now. Blanco isn't very good either and they're both gritty, so can see Skelly pulling the decision out. Muhammed should handily win as well, although the odds are too high for me to even consider for now.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Im not sure im on the right side here. In hindsight i should have passed on Skelly, his striking is actually ver bad, worse than i remember. im letting it ride, but im not happy with this play, as it stands.

I think Skelly has a bit of value at this price. He's a fringe top 15 FW and has only lost to Bektic and Elkins. His striking is pretty meh but he's great at getting the fight to the ground and Blanco doesn't have amazing TDD. I have some suspicions that Blanco was on PEDs in the pre-USADA era and he looked terrible in his last fight. Lastly, I don't think I could ever find it in myself to bet on a guy (Blanco) who lost to Marcus Brimage.

[bjpenn85]

I think Skelly has a bit of value at this price. He's a fringe top 15 FW and has only lost to Bektic and Elkins. His striking is pretty meh but he's great at getting the fight to the ground and Blanco doesn't have amazing TDD. I have some suspicions that Blanco was on PEDs in the pre-USADA era and he looked terrible in his last fight. Lastly, I don't think I could ever find it in myself to bet on a guy (Blanco) who lost to Marcus Brimage.

Blanco is very athletic, but, hes not talented. Winging punches etc, and Sanders was bantamweight more or less. Skelly has changed camp to blacksilianz and that should help him here. So Skelly probably should pull through. He has at least beat some credible guys and only lost to legit competition. But that striking bugs me, it doesnt look very good.

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

3 units on Dustin the diamond Poirier @ 1.67 to win - 2 units

I have a hang for betting fighters with momentum. Do Poirier have a significant advantage stylistically?Not really. This fight may end up as a pure kickboxing match for three rounds because of MJs excellent tdd. For three rounds i do like Poiriers pace, his striking accuracy, and if the fight ends up on the ground he may score points, even if poiriers takedowns last a couple of seconds. Or, he may be dominant and pick up a sub. MJ is really good, so if he comes in ready to fight, this can be close, but he usually loses the third round in fights that goes to a dec. That basically means that if he doesnt win the two first rounds, hes doomed. Im willing to lay down 3 units to see if that theory holds water.

Ive placed 7.5 units in total of Dustin Poirier, im now buying out half of this because of hesitancy. Ive also see Johnsons chance of a TKO, and also a dec , though unlikely.

Adding:

2.45 units on Johnson @ 2.45 to win back - 3.5 units

[Raynor21]

Diamond has great skills, a great chin and he improves after every fight and hasn't hit his peak yet. Either Dustin finishes or Johnson gets a decision.

Or Flash KO, anything can happen, but I'm personally going with Dustin small.

[firekillex]

Very close fight , lot of people sleeping on Michael Johnson here he was on a great streak before losing to Diaz .. Lauzon , Tibau, guillard, barbosa, he beat dariush everybody knew he was robbed .. So that's a very very solid streak Imo maybe even more impressive then poriers right now , porier does look like a new beast at 55 and is coming with the momentum so I lean him but this is much much closer then people are giving credit for don't love anything over -140 for porier

[bjpenn85]

Very close fight , lot of people sleeping on Michael Johnson here he was on a great streak before losing to Diaz .. Lauzon , Tibau, guillard, barbosa, he beat dariush everybody knew he was robbed .. So that's a very very solid streak Imo maybe even more impressive then poriers right now , porier does look like a new beast at 55 and is coming with the momentum so I lean him but this is much much closer then people are giving credit for don't love anything over -140 for porier

Dustin didnt look good enought striking wise against todd duffe, didnt look bad, but, if he didnt get tag as much i would have been more confident. Its my fear for dustin getting tagged and KOed is larger than my confidence in him having ever improving skills and the momentum he has right now. It also sucks to waste 70% of my profit from my last weekends profit on a bet im not confident in.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Dustin didnt look good enought striking wise against todd duffe, didnt look bad, but, if he didnt get tag as much i would have been more confident. Its my fear for dustin getting tagged and KOed is larger than my confidence in him having ever improving skills and the momentum he has right now. It also sucks to waste 70% of my profit from my last weekends profit on a bet im not confident in.

Dustin fought UFC Heavyweight Todd Duffee? When??

https://www.google.com/search?site=&tbm=isch&source=hp&biw=1280&bih=726&q=todd+duffee&oq=todd+duffee&gs_l=img.3..0l10.1356.3485.0.3632.13.12.1.0.0.0.92.835.12.12.0....0...1ac.1.64.img..0.13.831.DcBp5pevvSo#imgrc=s9z-GC-wYrgBzM%3A

[firekillex]

Dustin fought UFC Heavyweight Todd Duffee? When??
https://www.google.com/search?site=&...-GC-wYrgBzM%3A

Mustve been one of those pride fights ... Lmao kidding I'm sure he has names mixed up but not sure where Todd dufee comes from??? Maybe he's thinking Conor mcgregor

[Hugo de Naranja]

Mustve been one of those pride fights ... Lmao kidding I'm sure he has names mixed up but not sure where Todd dufee comes from??? Maybe he's thinking Conor mcgregor

I think he's talking about Joe Duffy since Poirier struggled a bit on the feet with him before realizing he could take Duffy down at will and beat him up on the ground.

[firekillex]

I think he's talking about Joe Duffy since Poirier struggled a bit on the feet with him before realizing he could take Duffy down at will and beat him up on the ground.

Youre right , I thought he was talking about getting kod by mcgregor , but yes the joe Duffy fight makes more sense Hugo... Porier got tagged a bit then decided to takedown Duffy and secured the win , completely different fights then this with Michael Johnson regardless.... Each fight brings new tasks and is completely different then the past/ next

[bjpenn85]

Haha meant joe duffy yes.

[bjpenn85]

UFC Fight Night Poirier vs Johnson

7.5 units on Dustin Poirier @ 1.65 to win - 4.8 units
3 units on Chas Skelly, Belal Muhammed @ evens to win - 3 units
2.45 units on Michael Johnson @ 2.45 to win back - 3.55 units

[bjpenn85]

UFC Fight Night Poirier vs Johnson

7.5 units on Dustin Poirier @ 1.65 to win - 4.8 units
3 units on Chas Skelly, Belal Muhammed @ evens to win - 3 units
2.45 units on Michael Johnson @ 2.45 to win back - 3.55 units

Event result: -0.9 units
Result on this thread since 7th may (2016): +64.9 units

Its easy to be swayed towards a fighter that had only for some time won by KO. Dustin Poirier is still hittable, and slow. DPs habit of getting tagged has followed him through his whole career. MJs speed was pretty obvious and its bugs me a little that i went for the sexy pick in DP. But, the decision to buy out of Poirier because his flawed defence was at least correct.

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

20 units on Louis Smolka @ 1.54 to win - 10.8 unts

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

5 units on Thiago Santos, Santos/lansberg under 1.5 rounds @ 1.54 to win - 2.8 units

[Rich Benjamins]

I made the mistake of betting on Poirier too. What might have been a red flag, is I think everyone and their dog was betting on Poirier, yet he still was only a -1.65 fav. When almost nobody is taking Johnson, but the line isn't that far apart, then maybe the view was wrong.

Same thing happened with McGregor/Diaz 2. Seemed like everyone was taking Diaz, yet McGregor was still the favorite. Smart money was coming in on McGregor, just like smart money was betting on Johnson.

Event result: -0.9 units
Result on this thread since 7th may (2016): +64.9 units

Its easy to be swayed towards a fighter that had only for some time won by KO. Dustin Poirier is still hittable, and slow. DPs habit of getting tagged has followed him through his whole career. MJs speed was pretty obvious and its bugs me a little that i went for the sexy pick in DP. But, the decision to buy out of Poirier because his flawed defence was at least correct.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Adding:

20 units on Loius Smolka @ 1.54 to win - 10.8 unts

I think he works Pettis over.

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

20 units on Louis Smolka @ 1.54 to win - 10.8 unts

Very few people, myself included could have foreseen the giant leap Smolka would make when he made his debut in the ufc early 2014. Smolka is first and foremost a pressure fighter that loves to grapple. His striking is abysmal imo, poor defence and low speed is some of the sad attributes. But, Smolka keeps a high pace in all his fight with his diaz brother like frame, youll easily see this man go the full three rounds without any issues. Smolka will try to grapple with Pettis and while pettis has decent ground game and probably the advantage standing, this wont be a striking competition in my eyes. Smolkas takedowns are quite good, and he sticks to his opponent like glue. Smolka does also has a healthy habit of making fights the way he wants it. Smolka wil typically chain a clinch attempt, with a submisson attempt with a new one and so on. If he doesnt get the takedown, he will easily give up his back, to falsely make his opponent advance for seconds later conquer top position. He has many routes to end up on the ground, so my prediction is that the fight will somehow some way eventually end up there. All bet involve risk, and i commonly break bankroll management rules with bets like this. I will always consider hedging or buying out based on available information. However, i need to make a move when i see gift line as this. Line did open up at -280 at sportsbook.com, so when i got the -180 line, i was like herro prrease.

[Igor_1965]

Adding:

20 units on Louis Smolka @ 1.54 to win - 10.8 unts

Glad I followed through, and didn't risk more than I already did on Pettis. Kudos!

[bjpenn85]

Glad I followed through, and didn't risk more than I already did on Pettis. Kudos!

If i make a bet over 3 units, the likelyhood of the bet cashing is currently over 80%. Pretty ridiculous, im not so sure im able to defend that win % for very long.