Bjpenn85s 100 unit in 2016 if not im done with SBR-O thread

[bjpenn85]

I like the bet but both opponents are live in R1 which is something to consider.

You can bet your sweet ass im betting that round 1 prop. Thanks for caring btw

[bjpenn85]

adding:

1.5 units on Vitor Belfort round 1 @ 6.5 to win - 8.5 units

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

14.5 units on Stephen Thompson @ 1.60 to win - 8,7 units

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

13.3 units on Tim Kennedy @ 1.5 to win - 6.6 units

[Hugo de Naranja]

Adding:

14.5 units on Stephan Thompson @ 1.60 to win - 8,7 units

Already hedged with Woodley Round 1 (+750) 2.5u and Woodley Round 2 (+1075) 1.5u so I'll be huge on Thompson here as well.

[bjpenn85]

Already hedged with Woodley Round 1 (+750) 2.5u and Woodley Round 2 (+1075) 1.5u so I'll be huge on Thompson here as well.

Nice!

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

1 unit on Rashad Evans to win in round 1 @ 15.50 to win - 14.5 units

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

1.5 units on Entwistle round 1 @ 6.50 to win - 8.25 units

[Hugo de Naranja]

Font/Entwistle cancelled ugh. Fukking Entwistle man

[bjpenn85]

not only that, whole next card gets canceled as welll

[bjpenn85]

UFC 204

10 units on Gegard Mousasi, Rob Font @ 1.76 to win - 7.6 units
1.5 units on Vitor Belfort round 1 @ 6.5 to win - 8.5 units


Event result: +1.8 units

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

10 units on Donald Cerrone @ 1.6 to win - 6 units
0.88 unitson Gastelum dec @ 3.74 to win back - 2.5 units

[Igor_1965]

Thoughts on the next McGregor fight? Which would surprise you more, an opener of -200 for him or even money?

[bjpenn85]

Thoughts on the next McGregor fight? Which would surprise you more, an opener of -200 for him or even money?

Upcoming fight against eddie alvarez you mean? If yes, the odds has been out for weeks, and is currently sitting at -150.

I think if the fight goes passed the 8 min mark, mcregor gasses, but this time, he wont catch a second wind. Alvarez has quite good takedowns as well so he probably can hold mcregor down as long as he needs. But if theres a KO i think mcregor gets it. Hes accuracy is pretty fly.

[Beelzebubzy]

McGregor got koed yesterday in training

[bjpenn85]

McGregor got koed yesterday in training

How did you learn this?

[Beelzebubzy]

it's a fact all over the interweb

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

5 units on Cowboy Cerrone @ 1.60 to win - 3 units

[bjpenn85]

UFC 205: Alvarez vs Mcregor nov 12th

15 units on Cowboy Cerrone @ 1.60 to win - 9 units
14.5 units on Stephen Thompson @ 1.60 to win - 8,7 units
13.3 units on Tim Kennedy @ 1.5 to win - 6.6 units

1 units on Rashad Evans to win in round 1 @ 15.50 to win back - 14.5 units
1.5 units on woodley tko @ 5.50 to win back - 8.25 units
1.4 units on Gastelum dec @ 3.9 to win back - 4.09 units

[bjpenn85]

Final bets : UFC 205: Alvarez vs Mcregor nov 12th

22 units on Stephen Thompson @ 1.60 to win - 13.2 units
18 units on Cowboy Cerrone @ 1.62 to win - 11.1 units
2.6 units on Michael Johnson @ 3.30 to win - 5.9 units


Hedge

2 units on Gastelum dec @ 3.9 to win back - 5.8 units
0.7 units on Gastelum round 1 tko @ 12 - 8.6 units
1.5 units on Woodley TKO @ 5.50 to win back - 8.2 units
0.8 units on Woodley TKO round 1@ 10 - 7.2 units
0.5 units on Woodley TKO round 2 @ 22 - 9 units

1.6 units on Nurmagamedov dec @ 2.40 to win back - 2.4 units

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

1.6 units on Nurmagamedov dec @ 2.40 to win back - 2.4 units

[PaperTrail07]

Wait....so your betting MJ to win the fight and hedging with Nurgamedov by decision?.....seems like that leaves a big window open for a -300 to finish the fight IMO.....

[KushMoney]

Damn BJ Penn that 22u bet on Wonderboy is ballsy and impressive.

Do you see him winning 3/4 Rounds of decision? I capped this fight.. Honest, Hard-fought decision win for Wonderboy in which he demonstrates great timing, distance and cardio. He might land something new and exciting which should help him in terms of the judging.

I could also see Twood winning via decision also.. slow boring fight where he barely gets by and wins a close decision.

3rd likely in my book is Wonderboy TKO.

Good luck!!

[KushMoney]

Wait....so your betting MJ to win the fight and hedging with Nurgamedov by decision?.....seems like that leaves a big window open for a -300 to finish the fight IMO.....

I feel like MJ +230 is +ev and hard to pass up.

At the same time betting against undefeated Khabib is tricky.

There may be more value in live-betting Johnson if you feel Khabib will start out strong.. but I feel MJ will start out strong and land more early on.

[bjpenn85]

Damn BJ Penn that 22u bet on Wonderboy is ballsy and impressive.

Do you see him winning 3/4 Rounds of decision? I capped this fight.. Honest, Hard-fought decision win for Wonderboy in which he demonstrates great timing, distance and cardio. He might land something new and exciting which should help him in terms of the judging.

I could also see Twood winning via decision also.. slow boring fight where he barely gets by and wins a close decision.

3rd likely in my book is Wonderboy TKO.

Good luck!!

Its ballsy, but im quite confident woodley wont win a dec. Its the 1.round TKOs that cripple my bankroll historically. So, in the long run hedging with 1.round prop is the way to go with big wagers.

[bjpenn85]

Wait....so your betting MJ to win the fight and hedging with Nurgamedov by decision?.....seems like that leaves a big window open for a -300 to finish the fight IMO.....

Isnt this a smart way to play thins fight?

[bjpenn85]

Final bets : UFC 205: Alvarez vs Mcregor nov 12th

22 units on Stephen Thompson @ 1.60 to win - 13.2 units
2.6 units on Michael Johnson @ 3.30 to win - 5.9 units

1.5 units on Woodley TKO @ 5.50 to win back - 8.2 units
0.8 units on Woodley TKO round 1@ 10 - 7.2 units
0.5 units on Woodley TKO round 2 @ 22 - 9 units

1.6 units on Nurmagamedov dec @ 2.40 to win back - 2.4 units

[Hugo de Naranja]

Final bets : UFC 205: Alvarez vs Mcregor nov 12th

22 units on Stephen Thompson @ 1.60 to win - 13.2 units
2.6 units on Michael Johnson @ 3.30 to win - 5.9 units

1.5 units on Woodley TKO @ 5.50 to win back - 8.2 units
0.8 units on Woodley TKO round 1@ 10 - 7.2 units
0.5 units on Woodley TKO round 2 @ 22 - 9 units

1.6 units on Nurmagamedov dec @ 2.40 to win back - 2.4 units

I like the bets. Good luck buddy!

[bjpenn85]

And..be careful of hopeless judges today. Ny state, be aware of controversial decisions from the get go if youre thinking of live betting

[Hugo de Naranja]

And..be careful of hopeless judges today. Ny state, be aware of controversial decisions from the get go if youre thinking of live betting

Fortunately we got the Wonderboy draw. I ended up having Woodley Decision and split decision for value purposes as well as the draw prop but this fight was a complete wash for me. Really exciting one though. Wonder what odds will be for the rematch

[bjpenn85]

Final bets : UFC 205: Alvarez vs Mcregor nov 12th

22 units on Stephen Thompson @ 1.60 to win - 13.2 units
2.6 units on Michael Johnson @ 3.30 to win - 5.9 units

1.5 units on Woodley TKO @ 5.50 to win back - 8.2 units
0.8 units on Woodley TKO round 1@ 10 - 7.2 units
0.5 units on Woodley TKO round 2 @ 22 - 9 units

1.6 units on Nurmagamedov dec @ 2.40 to win back - 2.4 units

Event result: -7 units

Dodged a bullet there. In reality had Khabib round 3 prop, but as always, if not posted here, it wont count. What an event.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I was really surprised that Woodley was able to hurt WB in the 4th. I watched a lot of tape on him (even back to Strikeforce) and he was always suuuuuper gassed by the third.

[bjpenn85]

I was really surprised that Woodley was able to hurt WB in the 4th. I watched a lot of tape on him (even back to Strikeforce) and he was always suuuuuper gassed by the third.

Mee to. but when you go big, crazy shit happens. Fluky dec, draw. Last three big wagers i have made, 2 have ended in draw. What are the odds? This period has been so crazy.

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

2 units on Courtney Casey @ 4.50 to win - 7 units
1.1 unit on Gadelha dec @ 1.9 to win back - 1 unit

[Hugo de Naranja]

Didn't you bet trump to win the presidency at some point?