Bjpenn85s 100 unit in 2016 if not im done with SBR-O thread

[Hugo de Naranja]

Thoughts on the under for the cowboy fight? im surprised its only at -120, im feeling Brown got USADA'd he used to be an animal and in his last two fights hes looked like day and night, just too tentative, i think he folds when Cerrone starts beating him up, even on the ground Brown could get subbed.

Took it for a pretty big stake at (-105). Both guys are the finish/get finished type.

[bjpenn85]

Final Plays UFC 206: Holloway vs Pettis

10 units on Cerrone, Max Holloway @ 2.09 to win - 10.9
5 units on Jordan Mein @ 1.62 to win - 3.1 units
5 units on Makovsky/Ortiz over 2.5 round, Jordan Mein @ 2.27 to win - 6.35 units
1.25 unit on Mike Brown tko @ 6.25 to win back - 6.5 unit

[Hugo de Naranja]

On a lot of the same stuff myself. Best of luck to us

[bjpenn85]

I will add Pettis inside distance if cerrone wins, so that the parlay doesnt bust.

[Hugo de Naranja]

You might consider adding Pettis Scorecards = No Action as the hedge if they release the prop. It should pay about 2/1 and will push if the fight goes the distance, where I expect Max to win a wide decision.

[bjpenn85]

You might consider adding Pettis Scorecards = No Action as the hedge if they release the prop. It should pay about 2/1 and will push if the fight goes the distance, where I expect Max to win a wide decision.

I agree

[Igor_1965]

no Albany action?

[bjpenn85]

no Albany action?

Just some small parlays for fun, lewis inside, francis ngannou with dominick cruz.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Just some small parlays for fun, lewis inside, francis ngannou with dominick cruz.

Favorites dominated this card. I believe they were 12-0

[bjpenn85]

Favorites dominated this card. I believe they were 12-0

Some of the favourites had significantly more experience and had performed on a higher level. Like Villante. Although he sucks, he still is a lot better than regional cans. I slept through the whole event and woke up 1 min before lewis got the tko.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Some of the favourites had significantly more experience and had performed on a higher level. Like Villante. Although he sucks, he still is a lot better than regional cans. I slept through the whole event and woke up 1 min before lewis got the tko.

Yup. I backed Villante here but don't favor him against most top 15 LHWs

[mackave]

err, posted something, wrong thread! GL!

[bjpenn85]

[QUOTE=bjpenn85;26613306]Final Plays UFC 206: Holloway vs Pettis

10 units on Cerrone, Max Holloway @ 2.09 to win - 10.9
5 units on Jordan Mein @ 1.62 to win - 3.1 units
5 units on Makovsky/Ortiz over 2.5 round, Jordan Mein @ 2.27 to win - 6.35 units
1.25 unit on Mike Brown tko @ 6.25 to win back - 6.5 unit

Event result:-0,3 units

Jordan Mein, what a complete douchebag.

[freeVICK]

U from hawaii brah. Bet max and pau. No touch nothing else

[bjpenn85]

U from hawaii brah. Bet max and pau. No touch nothing else

Betting Mein, as much as holloway and cerrone is a horrible mistake. I was not confident in Mein, but i knew holloway and cerrone would win. Thats not how you size up wagers.

[Igor_1965]

I'm no pro but having watched all three fights I think it's hardly fair to say Cerrone and Holloway were good individual bets. At -150 range, sure. At -250? Early rounds way too close.

And Mein needs a shrink. He's like James Franco's character in Why Him. Probably got bullied in school.

[bjpenn85]

I'm no pro but having watched all three fights I think it's hardly fair to say Cerrone and Holloway were good individual bets. At -150 range, sure. At -250? Early rounds way too close.

And Mein needs a shrink. He's like James Franco's character in Why Him. Probably got bullied in school.

Didnt fin holloway vs pettis very close, cerrone vs brown was way to close.

[bjpenn85]

UFC on FOX 22: Van Zant vs Waterson


3.5 units on Emmet/Faber @ 1.77 to win - 2.8 units

Emmet is better than holtzman standing effectively but also in terms of combos and variety. Hopefully also in the wrestling department. He has that typical showoff striking, proving to the judges that he wins rounds. So even if this getting close, which i think it will, he will win a 29-28 type of dec.

Faber is better than Pickett all around, and the only time pickett actually has won in years are when he has used his wrestling to eak out close dec against other fighters having little wrestling. That wont work here.


This card appears to be horrible for betting. Next card looks decent. If in need for some action, go for prop plays instead will be my advise.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Even this version of Faber is probably safe against Pickett at (-500). I'm not sure if there's any value on Emmett at these odds though. He's looked impressive in his 1 UFC fight but it was still a split decision against Jon Tuck who sucks. I think this is a good fight to get information but not to bet a whole lot on.

[bjpenn85]

Even this version of Faber is probably safe against Pickett at (-500). I'm not sure if there's any value on Emmett at these odds though. He's looked impressive in his 1 UFC fight but it was still a split decision against Jon Tuck who sucks. I think this is a good fight to get information but not to bet a whole lot on.

It was a split dec because the judges got the score wrong. Tuck sucks, but holtzman fought too even with fighters that are way worse than tuck. Pfister and that christodoloulouloulou. Josh Emmet won easily gets tuck without preparation. But, the 1 fight in the ufc is def a typical reason why i loose, so i think were in full agreement here about the risk. Its only 3.5 units. So im willing to gamble a little bit here. And holtzman do also struggle with finishing fight, so if hes winning, its probably a controversial dec. I probably hedge with holtzman dec + faber for 0.25 units and get all my cash back. Faber and holtzman are not losing on the same card. This is a new way of hedging i have used lately. Its a genius move a brainiac friend of mine gave me. Works everytime.

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

1,5 units on Bryan Barberena dec @ 8.7 to win - 10.6 units

[bjpenn85]

UFC on FOX 22: Van Zant vs Waterson

event result: + 1.3 units

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on FOX 22: Van Zant vs Waterson

event result: + 1.3 units

At least somebody won on this event!

[bjpenn85]

At least somebody won on this event!

Difficult event to bet on, so i had to limit myself to bet pennies.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Difficult event to bet on, so i had to limit myself to bet pennies.

I respect the discipline

[bjpenn85]

UFC 207: Nunes vs Rousey 30th dec


Pending parlays

7,5 units on Francis Ngannou, Dominick Cruz @ 1.71 to win - 5.3 units
1 unit on Elliot/Johnson goes 5 round distance, Cain V. Dominick Cruz to win - 4 units

1.5 units on Garbrandt inside @ 3.5 to win back - 3.75 units
05. units on Garbrandt dec @9.76 to win back - 4.3 units

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

1.5 units on Garbrandt inside dist @ 3.5 to win back - 3.75 units

[bjpenn85]

UFC 207: Nunes vs Rousey 30th dec


7,5 units on Francis Ngannou, Dominick Cruz @ 1.71 to win - 5.3 units
1 unit on Elliot/Johnson goes 5 round distance, Cain V. Dominick Cruz to win - 2.3 units

Hedge
3 units on Garbrandt inside @ 3.5 to win back - 7.5 units
0.5 units on Garbrandt dec @9.76 to win back - 4.3 units

[Beelzebubzy]

Dude, turn Pro. You have a lot of bet points. They are useless unless you are a pro.

[bjpenn85]

Dude, turn Pro. You have a lot of bet points. They are useless unless you are a pro.

First of all, regardless of how much you have as a non pro, they will be reset back to 3000 once you turn pro.

The bet point system doesnt interest me that much.

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC 207: Nunes vs Rousey 30th dec


7,5 units on Francis Ngannou, Dominick Cruz @ 1.71 to win - 5.3 units
1 unit on Elliot/Johnson goes 5 round distance, Cain V. Dominick Cruz to win - 2.3 units

Hedge
3 units on Garbrandt inside @ 3.5 to win back - 7.5 units
0.5 units on Garbrandt dec @9.76 to win back - 4.3 units

Not as confident in Cruz anymore?

[bjpenn85]

Not as confident in Cruz anymore?

Im pretty confident he will win, if he doesnt get Koed. Garbrandt doesnt have any chance of winning outside KO.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Im pretty confident he will win, if he doesnt get Koed. Garbrandt doesnt have any chance of winning outside KO.

Agreed

[bjpenn85]

Smolka/Borg seems like a tossup IMO, not sure why one will bet on such a fight.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Smolka/Borg seems like a tossup IMO, not sure why one will bet on such a fight.

Smolka is a much better finisher and has better cardio. He's a better scrambler and striker as well.