No bought out after all the scandals. I didnt understand how much people hated hilary, ill guess no one did.
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Adding:
2 units on Morales TKO @ 10.2 to win - 18.5 unitsComment -
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19 units on Hermansson @ 1.50 to win - 9.5 units
I have Hermansson capped around -280 -300 ish, so when i first hit it i got -170, which i thought was a steal. At sportsbook you could get Hermansson at evens which obviously was what i hoped for.
Its not much to say, hermansson is a a well rounded guy. Pretty complete, he will teach Ferreira a lesson here. I dont think Ferreira will last. This late takedown thingy he does wont work, as hermanssons bjj is too good. Hermansson is also a greco roman wrestler so dont expect to outwrestle this guy either. I look at this as a gimme fight for hermansson, not a complete gimme fight, but very close to it.Comment -
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2 units on Ferreira dec @ 4.8 to win - 7.6 units
0.5 units on Ferreira round 1 @ 10 to win - 4.5 unitsComment -
Event result: -21.5 units
Its obviously a lot different betting these types of sums. The loss is just colossal. For some reason i have a tendency last month to loose every bet regardless, and the hedge i dont have, is the scenario who ends up happening. Its obviously something wrong with my strategy + a little dose of unluck. In this fight in particular, i bet on a fighter with a thin track record in the ufc, which is always a bit risky. My thought, was that since he had already won against a decent fighter + what i have seen from hermansson on the ground and on tape, it would be enough to win, but i was just dead wrong.
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Brunson vs Whittaker
7 units on Whittaker @ 2.25 to win - 8.75 units
1.25 units on Derek Brunson dec @ 4.80 to win - 4.7 unitsComment -
What's your YTD total coming into this event?Originally posted by bjpenn85Comment -
?? What if Brunson wins by TKO or submissionOriginally posted by bjpenn85Comment -
He losesOriginally posted by KushMoneyComment -
Nice hit on Whittaker BJ!Originally posted by bjpenn85Comment -
Event result: +7.5 units
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good to see you climb back.Originally posted by bjpenn85Comment -
Originally posted by Thrilla
Thanks bud. This year has been quite diff. My goal was to get to a certain amount. I scaled up the bets, and it did backfire like a mf.Comment -
TUF 24 Finale: Tournament of Champions dec 3.
7.5 units on Benavidez @ 1.52 to win - 3.9 unitsComment -
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4.8 units on Rob Font/Masvidal @ 2.17 to win - 5.7 unitsComment -
Hi. I know this is a dumb question.
But what percentage of a typical bank roll is 1 unit.Comment -
Accordig to standard bankroll management, 1 unit should equal 1% of your bankroll.Originally posted by Sanity Check
A maximum bet can at the highest be 10 untis/10%, on rare occasions up to 25%.
Vegasdave bet 1 mill on Tate to win over Amanda Nunes, ill guess that is 100% of his bankroll, ill guess we wont hear from him again.
As for myself, i have tried to challenge this system, and i cant say it has payed of. Ive lost a ton on cramping this style of betting. Standard bankroll mangement procedures its time consuming, it is slow, but it is safe, and a guaranteed win if youre not abnormally untalented.Comment -
Pending bets TUF 24 Finale: Tournament of Champions dec 3.
12 units on Benavidez @ 1.51 to win - 6.1 units
4.8 units on Rob Font/Masvidal @ 2.17 to win - 5.7 units
Hedge
1.25 units Masvidal/Cejudo dec @ 4.8 to win back - 4.7 units
0.35 units on Cejudo TKO @ 12.8 to win back - 4.1 unitsComment -
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0.5 units on Ellenberger by TKO @ 10 to win back - 4.5 unitsComment -
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0.5 units on Matt Schnell to win inside distance @ 5 to win back - 2 unitsComment -
Originally posted by bjpenn85
Event result:
+10.2 unitsComment -
Isn't it 9.2 with the Ellenberger TKO and Schnell ITD hedges? Great job btwOriginally posted by bjpenn85Comment -
Sorry, little error there.Originally posted by bjpenn85
Event result:
+9.2 units.Comment -
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7 units on Cerrone, Max Holloway @ 2.09 to win - 7.6 unitsComment -
are you worried about cerrones eye? or is that just makeupComment -
I believe its an injury suffered in training camp. I dont know the implications of this injury. I assume the injury wont have an affect and that the doctors wont let him fight if the injury causes visual problems.Originally posted by BeelzebubzyComment -
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5 units on Makovsky/Ortiz over 2.5 round, Jordan Mein @ 2.27 to win - 6.35 units
Makvosky/Ortiz doesnt have any finishing power and unfortunately for Emil Meek, he wont win against a seasoned vet in Mein. Norwegian fighters are probably worse than Asian fighters in the UFC. They are barely able to even get into the UFC. Even Jack Hermansson which is vastly the better fighter than Meek is, is currently 1-1 in middleweight div, which has like 5-6 good fighters. Mein is a complete pussy though, so Meek can get the 3.round stoppage if Mein gasses or just quits, but Mein is def worth a stab with his superior athleticism and striking acumen.Comment -
You lost me at mein is a complete pussy
and Meek absolutely shit on rousimar palhares with elbows this fight should be intense imoComment -
I understand, clumsy term. I mean, hes not trusthworthy. I dont trust his mentality. He was finished by brown, finished by alves and he also just gave up on his career. And if Meek manages to survive to the 3.round he appears to be pretty tough so, maybe he can get the late TKO. I dont think Jordan Mein is a guy you can trust, but the skill disparity in this contest + the value is so tempting i couldnt resist the urge to place a bet. I think Jordan Mein easily could have been -280/-300. -130-150 range is just way off. Meek was picked apart by a local polish fighter that was 2-1 for...hold on, a freakin year ago. Jordan Mein gets finished by top prospects in the ufc, its a facking diff. Meeks decent at regional level, but in the ufc, hes not going to have any success, i think. Even if he bests Mean.Originally posted by firekillexYou lost me at mein is a complete pussy
and Meek absolutely shit on rousimar palhares with elbows this fight should be intense imoComment -
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5 units on the talented but fragile Jordan Mein @ 1.60 to win - 3 unitsComment -
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1.25 unit on Mike Brown tko @ 6.25 to win back - 6.5 unitsComment -
Definitely the right hedge. I'm on it as well.Originally posted by bjpenn85Comment -
Cant sub him, def cant win a dec, but if cerrone arent prepared maybe he can shock cerrone and get the early tko. It has to be real early as well as cerrone can get the reactive takedown and slow down the frenetic pace brown set. Large bet always needs hedging. Always need that safety net. But, im not going huge on hedges, because they can also loose, then youre KTFO. So if i loose on both, its not that big of a deal.Originally posted by Hugo de NaranjaComment -
I think Brown could MAYBE catch Cerrone in some type of Guillotine or something but most likely I see one of these guys KO'ing the other with Cerrone the more likely victor by a long shot.Originally posted by bjpenn85Comment -
Thoughts on the under for the cowboy fight? im surprised its only at -120, im feeling Brown got USADA'd he used to be an animal and in his last two fights hes looked like day and night, just too tentative, i think he folds when Cerrone starts beating him up, even on the ground Brown could get subbed.Comment
