Bjpenn85s 100 unit in 2016 if not im done with SBR-O thread

[bjpenn85]

I would strongly encourage you not to bet AES straight here. Women's Bantamweight has been a total shit-show of late and the value is almost always on the dog. AES is not a particularly good fighter and even though I bet her in her last fight, I think she should have lost to Reneau. She lost 4 of her last 5 amateur bouts but has shown good finishing ability throughout her career. If you are still confident she will dominate this fight bet AES -3.5 at +money for a way better return. She does have strong power and has finished opponents late.

Im not to fan of betting fighters straight at such a high number, but this macedo girl, she just isnt ufc level at all. While AES is hittable, submittable, some of those defensive flaws she has showed happened in 2011, 5 years ago. She was tagged against Renau, but renau is pretty good striker as well, so i dont know how much stock you can put into that. She was hit by fallon fox also, but came back and defended several submissions and got the late tko. Macedos doesnt really master anything in my opinion, her heelhook from july was pretty much a rookie mistake from her opponent. Her fight against Camilla Hinze was the most lack luster fight i have ever seen.

I just cant pass this bet. I feel like its a borderline a mismatch. I do fully agree with you, womens bantamweight div is more or less a lottery, no rules, upsets and flukes all over the place. But this macedo girl, AES should smoke her. If she can get hit 40 times and still walk forward and beat fallon fox, and basically win round 1 against pennington and loose a close dec against mariion renau, then you have to believe AES will edge Macedo out on the scorecards, even if everything goes wrong.

But flukes does happen in MMA. If presented with a good hedge i may play Macedo inside dist. But she cant win a dec against AES, logically.

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

2.5 unit on AES/Macedo under 2.5 round, Werdum @ 3.80 to win - 7 units

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

5 units on Mickey Gall, Werdum @ 2 to win - 5 units

Mickey Gall, better bjj, better striker, more athletic, more experienced. Still not a lot of data, so cant bet more than 500 dollars on this.

Werdum should continue where he left off against Brownee. I think Brownee looks just worse and worse for every fight. He loses to credible guys, Cain is good, and arlovski is decent although he is old. But he finds a way to quit. If it wasnt for the eyepoke, he easily lost two rounds against meathead, get KOed against arlovski, and looked dreadful, absolutely dreadful against cain. He didnt even put up a fight. He can KO werdum, obviously, were talkin heavyweights, but if not that, hes completely shot IMO.

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

1 unit on Latifi inside dist @ 4.16 to win - 3.16 units
0.25 units on Latifi round 1 @ 6.50 to win - 1.37 units

[bjpenn85]

Pending bets: Arlovski vs Barnett sept 3.rd

13 units on Ashlee Evans-Smith @ 1.39 to win - 5.1 units
2.5 unit on AES/Macedo under 2.5 round, Werdum @ 3.80 to win - 7 units
1 unit on Latifi inside dist @ 4.16 to win - 3.16 units
0.25 units on Latifi round 1 @ 6.50 to win - 1.37 units

[bjpenn85]

I would strongly encourage you not to bet AES straight here. Women's Bantamweight has been a total shit-show of late and the value is almost always on the dog. AES is not a particularly good fighter and even though I bet her in her last fight, I think she should have lost to Reneau. She lost 4 of her last 5 amateur bouts but has shown good finishing ability throughout her career. If you are still confident she will dominate this fight bet AES -3.5 at +money for a way better return. She does have strong power and has finished opponents late.

The 5-4 record is understandable as many of the losses was to ok opposition.Tori adams, a year later beat Raquel pennington. Another loss, Taylor stratford, who had a 9-1 record beat both pennington and AES, and had only a loss to ronda rousey. I would only say one loss was really bad and that was against Ericka newsome, She was a 145, so that could play a role, but the main thing here is that, this is 4 years ago, and all of the losses except one was to quite legit opposition by womens bantamweight standard.

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

4 units on Khabilov, Hein @ 1.80 to win - 3,2 units

[bjpenn85]

Pending bets: Arlovski vs Barnett sept 3.rd

13 units on Ashlee Evans-Smith @ 1.39 to win - 5.1 units
4 units on Khabilov, Hein @ 1.80 to win - 3,2 units
2.5 unit on AES/Macedo under 2.5 round, Werdum @ 3.80 to win - 7 units
1 unit on Latifi inside dist @ 4.16 to win - 3.16 units
0.25 units on Latifi round 1 @ 6.50 to win - 1.37 units

[firekillex]

i like AES here to but dont like the price tag... kinda want to play the decision prop -105 but she could definitely get the finish here hmmm. how do you think this fight goes BJ ?? AES itd +280 as well some pretty solid value.. her opponent is 5-0 but her opponents were complete trash cans 3 of them have losing records and one was 1-1 then retired lmao....

[bjpenn85]

i like AES here to but dont like the price tag... kinda want to play the decision prop -105 but she could definitely get the finish here hmmm. how do you think this fight goes BJ ?? AES itd +280 as well some pretty solid value.. her opponent is 5-0 but her opponents were complete trash cans 3 of them have losing records and one was 1-1 then retired lmao....

I see Macedo as a very young, developing fighter. She is athletic, and she has decent movement on the feet, but her ground game is bjj orientated, and with weak wrestling, at least what i can watch from tape. I think that, due to womens mma being so young, you will from time to time see debuting fighter that are over matched, greatly, against established ufc fighters. In womens boxing, its 80 prof boxers vs mens 5000. I dont know the numbers for wmma, but my point stands.

I think AES can strike with macedo, shes 5-6 inches taller, probably 2-3 weightclasses bigger, so although she is very hittable, i think she can take her punch. On the ground, it may be a total domination type of scenario. If you can manhandle fallon fox a man basically, you wont have problem with a women that should belong in the 115 div. So thats my point here, its a mismatch.

Dont like the price? Same people said the same when i wagered on Germaine De Randamie against Anna Elmose. I bet that SU, and people told me i was wrong. That fight lasted 3 min. This fight on paper, is at least on the ground even more loopsided. Im not sure why people are holding back. You get 40% of your investment on a debuting fighter, with a record that says beat nobody else than fighters with 2-1 or 0-3, coming from a small camp, on short notice, with no tdd against a 4 time all american wrestler, who just beat a striker controversially, but still, she was competitive for all three rounds and the list goes on.

You think that thats pricey? Huh, wake up man.

[firekillex]

cool some good info, i hardly watch womens 115ers or womens mma in general until they started coming into the ufc so i dont know much about either hence why i asked if you think AES wins by decision or itd ? i usually have a rule i dont bet -200 + fights unless i know for a fact theyre going to win and ive only seen AES fight twice she looked alright but nothing special, since you watched the tape ill trust ya though

and lol relax im awake bro , just trying to get some info in before the card dont really feel like watching either of these girls tapes was thinking about putting a small prop bet on decision or ITD, but if its a mismatch like you think ITD should have value at +280

[bjpenn85]

cool some good info, i hardly watch womens 115ers or womens mma in general until they started coming into the ufc so i dont know much about either hence why i asked if you think AES wins by decision or itd ? i usually have a rule i dont bet -200 + fights unless i know for a fact theyre going to win and ive only seen AES fight twice she looked alright but nothing special, since you watched the tape ill trust ya though

and lol relax im awake bro , just trying to get some info in before the card dont really feel like watching either of these girls tapes was thinking about putting a small prop bet on decision or ITD, but if its a mismatch like you think ITD should have value at +280

I mean you can never be 100%. AES was very fluky in the start of her career. She was even KOed after 5 sec in her 8th amateur fight, so thats say something about her defence. But this was more in the past, i think she has tightened up her defence more, but its mma. Im confident in what ive seen on tape in regards to macedos output. To win youll have to have a minimal of strikes landed per min, a minimum of grappling or KO power and i basically feel macedo has nothin for AES from what i have seen on tape. But developing fighter can add skills very quickly so there may be some things macedo hasnt shown. Im banking on her not suddenly has become a volume puncher with steller tdd etc. Im letting the tape be the evidence, her body of work.

[Hugo de Naranja]

i like AES here to but dont like the price tag... kinda want to play the decision prop -105 but she could definitely get the finish here hmmm. how do you think this fight goes BJ ?? AES itd +280 as well some pretty solid value.. her opponent is 5-0 but her opponents were complete trash cans 3 of them have losing records and one was 1-1 then retired lmao....

AES -3.5 will probably be around (-145). Play that since it covers any dominant victory. I'm playing ITD and a few other props as well

[firekillex]

AES -3.5 will probably be around (-145). Play that since it covers any dominant victory. I'm playing ITD and a few other props as well

ive never bet -3.5 prop bet before what does that even mean in a 3 rounder hugo?? i was looking at the fight a bit the past hour and was leaning on itd for the value .. but interested in what you got to say

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

4 units on Khabilov, Hein @ 1.80 to win - 3,2 units

If khabilov wins, i will probably play both sides, not that confident in Hein anymore.

[Hugo de Naranja]

ive never bet -3.5 prop bet before what does that even mean in a 3 rounder hugo?? i was looking at the fight a bit the past hour and was leaning on itd for the value .. but interested in what you got to say

-3.5 cashes if AES wins by any finish OR if she wins a decision by a total of more than 4 points. For instance, a 30-27 AES scorecard is 3 points since that is the difference between 30 and 27. So if she won a decision like (30-27, 29-28, 29-28) that would be a total of 5 points and would cover the spread. I play them a lot when I think a fighter will win in dominant fashion and usually the odds are pretty decent.

[latarianmilton]

I actually like Macedo's stand up i think it can became very good if she drops to 115 and polishes it a little, i feel she has a slight edge over AES standing.
How is AES top game?

[firekillex]

-3.5 cashes if AES wins by any finish OR if she wins a decision by a total of more than 4 points. For instance, a 30-27 AES scorecard is 3 points since that is the difference between 30 and 27. So if she won a decision like (30-27, 29-28, 29-28) that would be a total of 5 points and would cover the spread. I play them a lot when I think a fighter will win in dominant fashion and usually the odds are pretty decent.

Cool Hugo, I understand that makes sense I'd definitely like the -3.5 then I think she'll win 30/27 tbh, at -145 it makes the value right since decision is -105 but I'm scared she may get the finish so lay a little extra juice to cover both sides... Ty for info I may try this out for this fight actually

[Hugo de Naranja]

Cool Hugo, I understand that makes sense I'd definitely like the -3.5 then I think she'll win 30/27 tbh, at -145 it makes the value right since decision is -105 but I'm scared she may get the finish so lay a little extra juice to cover both sides... Ty for info I may try this out for this fight actually

No problem mate. Good luck!

[GoBlue77]

Adding:

1 unit on Latifi inside dist @ 4.16 to win - 3.16 units
0.25 units on Latifi round 1 @ 6.50 to win - 1.37 units

bad bet.

[firekillex]

No problem mate. Good luck!

+110 AES -3.5 definitely be on that one hugo

[Hugo de Naranja]

+110 AES -3.5 definitely be on that one hugo

All day!

[bjpenn85]

bad bet.

Its a decent bet because bader has a mediocre chin and latifi have a lot of power. I dont think latifi wins a dec, so were not in disagreement of who being the better fighter.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Aes ftw

[firekillex]

Aes ftw

We eatinnnnn

[GoBlue77]

Its a decent bet because bader has a mediocre chin and latifi have a lot of power. I dont think latifi wins a dec, so were not in disagreement of who being the better fighter.

losing bets are never good lol. congrats on the AES winner

[Heyeverybody99]

losing bets are never good lol. congrats on the AES winner

And this is why you're a clueless troll. You can't even grasp simple gambling concepts. lol idiot

[Hugo de Naranja]

Not a bad night for ya Beej

[bjpenn85]

Adding hedge:

2 units on Gustaffson by dec @ 3.0 to win back - 4 units

forgot this one

[bjpenn85]

Pending bets: Arlovski vs Barnett sept 3.rd

13 units on Ashlee Evans-Smith @ 1.39 to win - 5.1 units
4 units on Khabilov, Hein @ 1.80 to win - 3,2 units (Hedged/#86 this after line movement on bang to win 1.3 units on either side)
4 units on Gustaffson dec @ 3.0 to win - 4 units
2.5 unit on AES/Macedo under 2.5 round, Werdum @ 3.80 to win - 7 units
1 unit on Latifi inside dist @ 4.16 to win - 3.16 units
0.25 units on Latifi round 1 @ 6.50 to win - 1.37 units

Event result:+6.65 units
Result on thread since 7th of may 2016: +51.25 units

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

11.2 units on F.Werdum @ 1.47 to win - 5.3 units

[bjpenn85]

UFC 203: Miocic vs Werdum september 10th

11.2 units on Fabricio Werdum @ 1.47 to win - 5.3 units
5 units on Mickey gall, Werdum @ evens to win - 5 units

[dhristov211]

Gustaffson decison price was 3.0 not 2.0 and your win 8 not 4

[bjpenn85]

Gustaffson decison price was 3.0 not 2.0 and your win 8 not 4

I think the number on gustaffson was correct, i think it was about 3 and then went down to 2.70 last couple of weeks. I #86 gustaffson inside and hedged on hein/Khabilov. I could have made final bets more clear, i was out drinking and forgot to update.

[GoBlue77]

And this is why you're a clueless troll. You can't even grasp simple gambling concepts. lol idiot

I'm a troll lol, ok. pretty sure my record is beyond reproach on here and have warned countless noobs about to lose money. nobody has been better. period.

now...i understand the idea of betting for value purposes, guess you forgot to bold the lol there junior. so you can just go ahead and STFU