Bjpenn85s 100 unit in 2016 if not im done with SBR-O thread

[firekillex]

Adding:

2 units on Chris Camozzi @ 2.80 to win - 3.6 units

Hmm interested to why you like camozzi in this spot?

[Ty$]

Hmm interested to why you like camozzi in this spot?

I like Camozzi/ Caceras/ Cummins/ Cub

[Hugo de Naranja]

I like Camozzi/ Caceras/ Cummins/ Cub

I think the strategy of betting all the C names is +EV

[firekillex]

I like Camozzi/ Caceras/ Cummins/ Cub

I mean any particular reasoning you like camozzi in this spot??
i like cub and Cummins as well though .. Surprised nobody is big on Bermudez like I am here

[bjpenn85]

Hmm interested to why you like camozzi in this spot?

First of all, i dont think Camozzi will get finished on the ground or standing. Theres a small chance obviously that leites will get this to the ground, grind out a dec or get a late sub but i doubt camozzi will be taken down. Leites takedowns are not good enough. Secondly, standing up, this isnt a landslide for either fighter. Thales Leites probably got a bit more power and better technique, but he doesnt throw as much, and he isnt as aggressive as Camozzi. Camozzi is in your face and he takes the center of the octagon, and he is improving to the extent i believe the difference between leites skills and camozzi isnt significant in a standup fight. I cap the fight more like +130/120- range. I will be suprised if the line doesnt finally end up there.

[firekillex]

First of all, i dont think Camozzi will get finished on the ground or standing. Theres a small chance obviously that leites will get this to the ground, grind out a dec or get a late sub but i doubt camozzi will be taken down. Leites takedowns are not good enough. Secondly, standing up, this isnt a landslide for either fighter. Thales Leites probably got a bit more power and better technique, but he doesnt throw as much, and he isnt as aggressive as Camozzi. Camozzi is in your face and he takes the center of the octagon, and he is improving to the extent i believe the difference between leites skills and camozzi isnt significant in a standup fight. I cap the fight more like +130/120- range. I will be suprised if the line doesnt finally end up there.

Hmm makes sense so you like the dog money, I agree leites will probably not get him down unless it's in a scramble and he ends up ontop, I see this contest being on the feet mostly and Thales slightly outpointing camozzi throuh 3 rounds, camozzi is tough so I don't see him getting finished but I'm not sure he's on the same level as Thales here , he's a middling average middleweight and leites is top 10 material... The + money gives some value , I'll watch the line movement see where things go

[Thrilla]

JIBBBY 1

bjpenn85 0

bump

[firekillex]

bump

chef thrilla stirring the pot

[bjpenn85]

Hmm makes sense so you like the dog money, I agree leites will probably not get him down unless it's in a scramble and he ends up ontop, I see this contest being on the feet mostly and Thales slightly outpointing camozzi throuh 3 rounds, camozzi is tough so I don't see him getting finished but I'm not sure he's on the same level as Thales here , he's a middling average middleweight and leites is top 10 material... The + money gives some value , I'll watch the line movement see where things go

Sure, but Camozzi is climbing the latter. My bet is that he has good chance of making this close, and steal a diego sanchez inspired dec!

[firekillex]

Sure, but Camozzi is climbing the latter. My bet is that he has good chance of making this close, and steal a diego sanchez inspired dec!

the vitor miranda fight impressed me , but camozzi is 5/5 in his last 10 fights... 2 losses coming from jacare are understandable though but he has shown that he can be subbed and leites is a beast on the ground.. the over for this fight could have some value as well?

[Rich Benjamins]

I mean any particular reasoning you like camozzi in this spot??
i like cub and Cummins as well though .. Surprised nobody is big on Bermudez like I am here

I put money on Bermudez already. Surprised the line isn't -300 or more for Bermudez. Rony Jason hasn't been very impressive.

[firekillex]

I put money on Bermudez already. Surprised the line isn't -300 or more for Bermudez. Rony Jason hasn't been very impressive.

agreed one of the best locks ive seen all year imo, bermudez is a top level fighter , rony jason is average at best. Barring some lucky ko or sub bermudez should absolutely roll over jason here -210 is a steal

[bjpenn85]

the vitor miranda fight impressed me , but camozzi is 5/5 in his last 10 fights... 2 losses coming from jacare are understandable though but he has shown that he can be subbed and leites is a beast on the ground.. the over for this fight could have some value as well?

If so, then leites should have won by sub over tom watson as well, but he didnt? So im not sure thats correct + yes 2 losses to jacare, and lorenz larkin?? hes not that bad either. That split against natal, isnt the worst loss. Santos he lost due to really bad tdd which he had at that moment. So 3,5 out of those 5 losses are due to difficult matchups.

[Ty$]

Camozzi wins this fight prolly by DEC

[firekillex]

If so, then leites should have won by sub over tom watson as well, but he didnt? So im not sure thats correct.

5 losses by sub means youre susceptible to getting submitted imo, leites has 15 submission victories , 55% of his wins.. just because you can be subbed doesnt mean you will everytime in a 3 round fight its tough, just stating for prop bet purposes leites by sub could have value , i still see him winning a decision though for the most likely path of victory..

60% decision leites
20% sub leites
20% camozzi decision or win

thats where im capping it at

[Suggartown]

Cowboy vs Nate would be fun

[firekillex]

Cowboy vs Nate would be fun

nates beat him already
would be a decent rematch but theres plenty better fights to make imo. i really wanna see ceronne / ferguson if he goes back down to 55

[bjpenn85]

5 losses by sub means youre susceptible to getting submitted imo, leites has 15 submission victories , 55% of his wins.. just because you can be subbed doesnt mean you will everytime in a 3 round fight its tough, just stating for prop bet purposes leites by sub could have value , i still see him winning a decision though for the most likely path of victory..

60% decision leites
20% sub leites
20% camozzi decision or win

thats where im capping it at

Mostly agree, his susceptibility to getting submitted currently in the ufc i think is quite low, but against leites its a possibility.

[Rich Benjamins]

I actually like the Camozzi bet. He seems to have a renewed vigor for the game and could likely pull off the upset.

[bjpenn85]

I actually like the Camozzi bet. He seems to have a renewed vigor for the game and could likely pull off the upset.

He isnt smooth, but he is a lot better than he was at least.

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

7.5 units on Cub Swanson @ 1.33 to win - 2.4 units

[Alex Hart]

How are you feeling about Bermudez Bj?

[bjpenn85]

How are you feeling about Bermudez Bj?

Dennis Bermudez should win comfortably. But you got to have that Jason inside distance prop because of Bermudez chin. To hedge with Jason round 1 isnt enough IMO. You need to have at least -200 or better to play Bermudez straight. So for me its a pass currently.

If you really like another fighter on the card you can make Bermudez the last leg of a parlay, but with jason inside distance. I would be surprised to see Jasin win a dec, because Bermudez usually wins until the point in the fight where he gets rocked and then finished by strikes or submitted.

[Alex Hart]

Dennis Bermudez should comfortably. But you got to have that Jason inside distance prop because of Bermudez chin. To hedge with Jason round 1 isnt enough IMO. You need to have at least -200 or better to play Bermudez straight. So for me its a pass currently.

If you really like another fighter on the card you can make Bermudez the last leg of a parlay, but with jason inside distance. I would be surprised to see Jasin win a dec, because Bermudez usually wins until the point in the fight where he gets rocked and then finished by strikes or submitted.

Appreciate it Bj, thanks!

[bjpenn85]

Appreciate it Bj, thanks!

Good luck!

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

6 units on Santiago Ponzinibbio @ 1.66 to win - 3.9 units
0.65 units on Zak Cumming by tko @ 7.5 to win back - 4.22 units

I have Santiago as the likely round winner. He has already faced a better striker in Strickland and come out on top, although getting tkoed by a more potent striker in Larkin. Wrestling shouldnt be any problems as Ponzinibbio has pretty sweet tdd. Only problem with this bet as i see it, is santiagos tendency to get clipped and tkoed. Santiagos has an annoying habit of holding his hands too low, especially after exchanges, plays right into zak cumming strength as a counter striker. We saw this in his last fight with a stahl who wasnt good enough to exploit his defence, but Larkin absolutely gave Santiago fits for this, and imo i dont think he has learned his lession yet. Except for that, if Ponzinibbio can get it going i think he wins every round in a dec or maybe a late tko as i see him as the overall better strike. Santiago also throw more punches per minute and his aggressive center of the cage demeanor likely will sway the judges in in his favour round by round.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Adding:

6 units on Santiago Ponzinibbio @ 1.66 to win - 3.9 units
0.65 units on Zak Cumming by tko @ 7.5 to win back - 4.22 units

I have Santiago as the likely round winner. He has already faced a better striker in Strickland and come out on top, although getting tkoed by a more potent striker in Larkin. Wrestling shouldnt be any problems as Ponzinibbio has pretty sweet tdd. Only problem with this bet as i see it, is santiagos tendency to get clipped and tkoed. Santiagos has an annoying habit of holding his hands too low, especially after exchanges, plays right into zak cumming strength as a counter striker. We saw this in his last fight with a stahl who wasnt good enough to exploit his defence, but Larkin absolutely gave Santiago fits for this, and imo i dont think he has learned his lession yet. Except for that, if Ponzinibbio can get it going i think he wins every round in a dec or maybe a late tko as i see him as the overall better strike. Santiago also throw more punches per minute and his aggressive center of the cage demeanor likely will sway the judges in in his favour round by round.

Ponz gets hit sooooo much but he does throw fire. Should be a good fight but I'm taking Cummings here.

[bjpenn85]

Ponz gets hit sooooo much but he does throw fire. Should be a good fight but I'm taking Cummings here.

Cant blame anyone for taking Cummins here. I was thinking about taking Cummins first, but after watching tape, i think Ponzinibbio wins if he can avoid getting knocked out.

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

1 unit on Alex Caceres @ 3.55 to win - 2.55 units
0.5 units Cecares by dec @ 8.5 to win - 3.75 units

For some reason i have a feeling that Alex Cecares is going to win. Its a small bet so i dont care if i loose. Cecares is pretty much a poor mans version of Rodriguez, so theoretically this fight should favour Rodriguez in all facets of the game. But, its a 5 rounder at altitude, and if Rodriguez did get tire before, good luck doing those flashy high energy power moves now, without tiring. Hes not good at boxing range and if forced to fight more in fight i see cecares as good as him. Perhaps a bit like namajunas vs KK last weekend, where Namajunas was comfortable at range but a little lost in-fight. Im not saying cecares is better necessarily, only that i see cecares having some advantages, at +255, im willing to try.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Adding:

1 unit on Alex Caceres @ 3.55 to win - 2.55 units
0.5 units Cecares by dec @ 8.5 to win - 3.75 units

For some reason i have a feeling that Alex Cecares is going to win. Its a small bet so i dont care if i loose. Cecares is pretty much a poor mans version of Rodriguez, so theoretically this fight should favour Rodriguez in all facets of the game. But, its a 5 rounder at altitude, and if Rodriguez did get tire before, good luck doing those flashy high energy power moves now, without tiring. Hes not good at boxing range and if forced to fight more in fight i see cecares as good as him. Perhaps a bit like namajunas vs KK last weekend, where Namajunas was comfortable at range but a little lost in-fight. Im not saying cecares is better necessarily, only that i see cecares having some advantages, at +255, im willing to try.

I like these both for small. Rodriguez's boxing is actually terrible and not having good hands makes it a bad idea to lay this kind of juice on a fighter. There's a bit of value to be had on Caceres but he's not much of a finisher so the Decision sweat makes sense too.

[bjpenn85]

I like these both for small. Rodriguez's boxing is actually terrible and not having good hands makes it a bad idea to lay this kind of juice on a fighter. There's a bit of value to be had on Caceres but he's not much of a finisher so the Decision sweat makes sense too.

Hes not big finisher no, and if cecares end up winning by sub, i cant take it. Its so devastating being on the correct side with a +255 underdog, but not cashing betting only on a prop.

[Ty$]

I called 3 dogs the second I saw this card. Camozzi Caceras and Cummins.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I called 3 dogs the second I saw this card. Camozzi Caceras and Cummins.

All day!

[Hugo de Naranja]

I called 3 dogs the second I saw this card. Camozzi Caceras and Cummins.

I think Steele, Kawajiri, and Jason all have value at current prices as well.

[Ty$]

I think Steele, Kawajiri, and Jason all have value at current prices as well.

I agree w Steele but don't get greedy there Hugo