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I parlayed Holm and Barbosa for some big ticket action so I really hope you're wrong. Good luck to you, anyways!
GL GL GL
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Its not a good parlay. Its a huge risk, not only betting holm, but going against me. Almost everytime anyone comes into this thread and opposes me, its works like a jinx. You should either have gone wiith ngannou handicap or perhaps matt brown on next card. You cant seriously bet a fight at -300 where we dont know if she actually got any advantages + a gigantic grappling disadvantage too almost every women in the division hehe...i would be concerned. Good luck thoughComment -
Well Holly will have a few advantages, mainly footwork, and reach, imo. This gal can kick, punch and be gone as good as anyone, better than most. Schevchenko isn't always the quickest starter, and if she lets Holly take the lead early for the first few rounds, she will be fighting a a deficit. Unlike Nunes, don't count on Holly to get tired, the only girl I have seen that comes out looking fresher in round 5 is Joanna Jedrzejczyk, both have insane cardio. If Holly can stay on the outside, that's gonna be bad.
That said...
Valentina cannot be wrote off here, her cardio is strong, as is her durability. She may not have the reach but her striking technique is incredibly nasty. quick, and precise. Experience? Well, her UFC career isn't too long but she has a number of Muay Thai titles to her name, adding to this problem for Holly are two things. First her training partner is her sister, who has even MORE Muay Thai titles to her name, couldn't ask for a better training partner. Second, while Joanna Jedrzejczyk might be a force to reckon with in the UFC, Schevchenko through her around like rag-doll 3 times in other competitions. It was pretty impressive to see, granted she might have been heavier or allowed to be, she still beat the snot outta' her and it's not a non-factor. She isn't the best on the ground, but she has a huge advantage against Holm here, this girl won't hesitate to choke her ass out...again.
As of now Holly's odds has dropped down pretty drastically. Unfortunately, Valentina's have come down too, so I'm glad I got an early bet in on her. Definitely anybody's fight here though.Comment -
Let's crack a cold one and watch the fight
@@@@@@@@ GL GL GL @@@@@@@
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Sure sure, i wish you the best of luck. I have just been burned numerous of times betting favourites. I have know found a formula that i go by that has the goal of hinder loss. If im betting a favourite at -300 they should have:
- advantages everywhere
- be consistent
- no fluke loss
- no loss to fighters who on paper are worse fighter than themselves
- not bad chin
- not bad cardio
- to bet on a fighter because the discrepancy in skill is supposedly large doesnt warrant a bet, unless it is small /small play in parlay
- Can not be a debuting fighter
- can have 0 knowns holes in mma game, like bad wrestling, bad boxing etc
- -300 stamp should not be because of the opposing fighters bad last fight/because of hype
You can see, holm doesnt warrant a bet because she fails several criterias, that doesnt mean she wont win, but its not a the correct bet at -300 IMO.Comment -
Final bets: UFC ON FOX: Holm vs Shevschenko
10 units on Barboza @ 1.45 to win - 4.5 units
3 units on Barboza/Melendez over 2.5 rounds @ 1.5 to win - 1.5 units
2 units on Valentino shevchenko @ 3.25 to win - 4.5 units
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A year from now i think my days at 5dimes are over:
Tony: that is what has been restricted on your account
bjpenn85: exactly
Tony: you may play parlays
bjpenn85: so thats why i have no problems accessing
Tony: but we will no longer accept new open parlays
bjpenn85: so why is that?
Tony: so if you have something you want to fill in on an already open parlay then I can fill it for you
Tony: i no longer want open parlay play from you
They start to watch what im doing now, so this is how it starts. I have said to myself if i get thrown out from 5dimes, then im probably done with betting on MMA. I have now been thrown out at every bookie i ever signed up. The restrictions and many bans is tiring and unfair, but all betting companies are private like the casinos in las vegas, they can do what they want. Lets be honest, they are half criminals in an unregulated market arena, off course their not going to have a winning member cut back on their profits.
Last edited by bjpenn85; 07-23-16, 02:34 PM.Comment -
Adding:
10 units on Francis Ngannou, Matt brown @ 1.5 to win - 5 unitsComment -
Adding:
5 units on Nate diaz @ 2.15 to win - 5.7 unitsComment -
Betting a month ahead on diaz? Why?Comment -
Im betting now to avoid that the +115 becomes even money or worse. I dont believe we will see +130 or +150. If so im going to lay even more. I agree with eddie alvarez and gilbert melendez. It takes time to become a 5 rounder. It can take years, especially for fast and explosive fighters. Now that we have USADA also, becoming a part time 5 rounder isnt that likely.Comment -
In short. If this fight goes out of round 2, i think Diaz will find his normal rhythm and pace and cruise to a 5 round dec or get a stoppage victory in round 4 or 5. If the fight ends in round 1 and round 2, i think MCregor. At the same time, im having a very hard time believing MCregor will come out guns blazing after what happened in the last fight, so that a finish happens in round 1 or round 2 is perhaps a bit unrealistic. That means that MCregor unwillingly as a consequence of last fights result is playing right into diaz main strength, which is a prolonged boxing matchup. I believe MCregor will have a lot of the same issues as he had in the first fight. Maybe he will meet a wall and tire in round 3 or round 4.
In addition to have the advantage of a longer fight camp than 11 days, diaz has also fought at 170 punds, it may still be a very real issue for MCregor. Also the mentality is on diaz side as MCregor isnt really used to loosing and diaz did catch him. MCregor will def this time around show diaz a great deal of respect. Fear may be positive in that sense that he probably invests an abundance of traning hours and paying attention to details etc. We have already seen glimps of this as MCregor refused to show up on press conferances to focus on himself and the fight. But the fear wil also have another effect, i believe if diaz start to taunt MCregor in round 3, when shit hits the fan, that mcregor may fold again thinking " ah fakk, im tired and now he sets an even higher pace again". If someone quits like mcregor did, i think its a signature of how that person is. I think we all can go back to our childhood, do you remember that kid that always cried for little pathetic things, or that kid who always got really angry really fast? I think this is a type of neg characteristic. If you can get MCregor to quit once, i bet you can get him to do it again. He didnt quit late in round 3, it was in the middle of round 2. Its a red flag for MCregor backers.
Its still a bet with a lot of risk involved, we dont know if MCregor can control diaz on the ground, or if he for some reason can actually go the full 5 rounds. He has went to several 3 round decision without as much as breathing heavy, so its not outside the realm of possibility that he may go the full 5 rounds. But even though he can, at what pace? At nate diaz pace? Probably not and thats why i see value. MCregor is not foolishly attempting to win in round 1 and round 2, which is his best shot to win therefor this may prove to be a gift as MCregor is forced to show up alone in Diaz backyard unarmed. Ironically MCregors best shot of winning is the strategy he is the least likely to apply. But who can hold that against him, he did actually loose applying that strategy a couple of months ago...Last edited by bjpenn85; 07-24-16, 04:51 AM.Comment -
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Seriously nice work. +41.95 units since May... Some people take vacations shorter than that!Comment -
UFC 201: Lawler vs Woodley
10 units on F. Ngannou, Matt Brown @ 1.5 to win 5 units
7.5 units on R.Lawler to win - 3.5 units
2 units on J.Scoggins @ 2.07 to win - 2.15 units.
- Matt brown should avoid getting Koed, except from that thers a significant gap at this point between Brown and ellenberger.
- Lawler is the likely round winner here, but dont be too suprised to see Woodley KO out lawler. Its a fight im pretty sure Lawler wins as long as he doesnt get tkoed. But except from that power right hand, woodley are to complacent letting people pressure him and taking the initiativ in fights. That will likely be his downfall if the fight goes into the championship rounds. Theres always a possibility that Woodley can Knock lawler down to the extent that lawler never comes back and therefor losing the decision. It may happen, but it isnt the most likely event to occur.
- Scoggings will win standing up, and on the ground as he can probably control mccall and stay out of submissions, which some people may find surprising. I believe hes that good. This prop has now went from +120 down to -130 on 5dimes. I think the public has understood that scoggings is the better fighter at this point and that mccall will get shewed up on the feet, but not likely finished. I see Scoggings more as a grinder on the feet than a potent finisher. At least at the top level.Last edited by bjpenn85; 07-24-16, 12:03 PM.Comment -
What do you mean by, already made this bet? Scoggings and lawler was made this morning and brown and Ngannou is now closing this event.
I agree, people will probably come in on woodley a bit, especially on fight day, but the opposite may also happen so the number i got now is ok.Comment -
You answered the question, I meant with the RL bet. You are right though, could swing the other way, RL is a fan favorite and might get the line moving the other way, I know that when the line was first posted Lawler was somewhere around a -240 from what I remember seeing. Personally, I am interested to see what we get closer to fight time before pulling the trigger, but good to see the better SBR posters on Lawler.Comment -
When Woodley TKO comes out, i will probably jump on it. Because i believe this is woodleys only chance of winning. I will be very suprised to see woodley stick and move for 5 round outpointing lawler. We have seen a lot of upsets this year, mostly flash KOs. Bisping and alvarez etc. But, have we ever seen an explosive counter fighter suddenly become an outside fighter/ volume fighter, outpointing the established better striker for a 5 round decision win? Never, because it cant really happen hehe...MMA are full of flukes but not miracles.Comment -
Adding:
2 units on Karolina K @ 3.25 to win - 4.4 units
0.75 units on Woodley TKO @ 5.04 to win back - 3.03 units
I was so disappointed over Rose after last fight, and honestly i thought she lost. In that fight i had 10 units on Rose and i kissed those dollars goodbye during that fight. For once i didnt find myself on the wrong side in a faulty def. That being said, I think Karolina K has the right style to give Rose the same problems she faced in her last outing, mixed with steller tdd, this can absolutely be a fight were rose struggles to get going. Both fighters are basically on the same level so odds are a bit lopsided here.Comment -
Pending bets UFC 201: Lawler vs Woodley
10 units on F. Ngannou, Matt Brown @ 1.5 to win 5 units
7.5 units on R.Lawler to win - 3.5 units
2 units on J.Scoggins dec @ 2.07 to win - 2.15 units.
1 unit on Karolina K @ 3.25 to win - 2.25 units
0.75 units on Woodley TKO @ 5.04 to win back - 3.03 units
Last edited by bjpenn85; 07-24-16, 04:42 PM.Comment -
Im watched a bit more tape, and im a bit torn. I think she has a good shot more due to cardio advantage more than technical ability. She often stand square in front of her opponent in exchanges with the chin straight up in the air. Rose has better footwork and is a bit quicker and has more power, although no women in 115 div have power. Scoggings by dec off course, a little mistake there.Comment
