Bjpenn85s 100 unit in 2016 if not im done with SBR-O thread

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • Mxs1332
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 03-08-16
    • 661

    #71
    Originally posted by bjpenn85
    adding:

    2 units on Valentino Schevchenko @ 3.25 to win - 4.5 units

    how dare you bj..

    Who are you? :O

    Holm ftw!!!
    Comment
    • Hugo de Naranja
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 04-14-16
      • 14140

      #72
      Originally posted by Mxs1332
      how dare you bj..

      Who are you? :O

      Holm ftw!!!
      Naw man this is dog-or-pass all day. Don't lay the juice!
      Comment
      • bjpenn85
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 02-17-11
        • 5059

        #73
        Originally posted by Mxs1332
        how dare you bj..

        Who are you? :O

        Holm ftw!!!
        Im not sold on either women actually, but ill get +225 on one of them, what was that? Sign me up..
        Comment
        • Mxs1332
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 03-08-16
          • 661

          #74
          I parlayed Holm and Barbosa for some big ticket action so I really hope you're wrong. Good luck to you, anyways!

          GL GL GL
          Comment
          • bjpenn85
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 02-17-11
            • 5059

            #75
            Originally posted by Mxs1332
            I parlayed Holm and Barbosa for some big ticket action so I really hope you're wrong. Good luck to you, anyways!

            GL GL GL
            Its not a good parlay. Its a huge risk, not only betting holm, but going against me. Almost everytime anyone comes into this thread and opposes me, its works like a jinx. You should either have gone wiith ngannou handicap or perhaps matt brown on next card. You cant seriously bet a fight at -300 where we dont know if she actually got any advantages + a gigantic grappling disadvantage too almost every women in the division hehe...i would be concerned. Good luck though
            Comment
            • rsynweap84
              Restricted User
              • 06-24-16
              • 622

              #76
              Originally posted by bjpenn85
              Its not a good parlay. Its a huge risk, not only betting holm, but going against me. Almost everytime anyone comes into this thread and opposes me, its works like a jinx. You should either have gone wiith ngannou handicap or perhaps matt brown on next card. You cant seriously bet a fight at -300 where we dont know if she actually got any advantages + a gigantic grappling disadvantage too almost every women in the division hehe...i would be concerned. Good luck though

              Well Holly will have a few advantages, mainly footwork, and reach, imo. This gal can kick, punch and be gone as good as anyone, better than most. Schevchenko isn't always the quickest starter, and if she lets Holly take the lead early for the first few rounds, she will be fighting a a deficit. Unlike Nunes, don't count on Holly to get tired, the only girl I have seen that comes out looking fresher in round 5 is Joanna Jedrzejczyk, both have insane cardio. If Holly can stay on the outside, that's gonna be bad.

              That said...

              Valentina cannot be wrote off here, her cardio is strong, as is her durability. She may not have the reach but her striking technique is incredibly nasty. quick, and precise. Experience? Well, her UFC career isn't too long but she has a number of Muay Thai titles to her name, adding to this problem for Holly are two things. First her training partner is her sister, who has even MORE Muay Thai titles to her name, couldn't ask for a better training partner. Second, while Joanna Jedrzejczyk might be a force to reckon with in the UFC, Schevchenko through her around like rag-doll 3 times in other competitions. It was pretty impressive to see, granted she might have been heavier or allowed to be, she still beat the snot outta' her and it's not a non-factor. She isn't the best on the ground, but she has a huge advantage against Holm here, this girl won't hesitate to choke her ass out...again.

              As of now Holly's odds has dropped down pretty drastically. Unfortunately, Valentina's have come down too, so I'm glad I got an early bet in on her. Definitely anybody's fight here though.
              Comment
              • Mxs1332
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 03-08-16
                • 661

                #77
                Let's crack a cold one and watch the fight

                @@@@@@@@ GL GL GL @@@@@@@

                Comment
                • bjpenn85
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 02-17-11
                  • 5059

                  #78
                  Originally posted by Mxs1332
                  Let's crack a cold one and watch the fight

                  @@@@@@@@ GL GL GL @@@@@@@

                  Sure sure, i wish you the best of luck. I have just been burned numerous of times betting favourites. I have know found a formula that i go by that has the goal of hinder loss. If im betting a favourite at -300 they should have:
                  - advantages everywhere
                  - be consistent
                  - no fluke loss
                  - no loss to fighters who on paper are worse fighter than themselves
                  - not bad chin
                  - not bad cardio
                  - to bet on a fighter because the discrepancy in skill is supposedly large doesnt warrant a bet, unless it is small /small play in parlay
                  - Can not be a debuting fighter
                  - can have 0 knowns holes in mma game, like bad wrestling, bad boxing etc
                  - -300 stamp should not be because of the opposing fighters bad last fight/because of hype

                  You can see, holm doesnt warrant a bet because she fails several criterias, that doesnt mean she wont win, but its not a the correct bet at -300 IMO.
                  Comment
                  • bjpenn85
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 02-17-11
                    • 5059

                    #79
                    Final bets: UFC ON FOX: Holm vs Shevschenko

                    10 units on Barboza @ 1.45 to win - 4.5 units
                    3 units on Barboza/Melendez over 2.5 rounds @ 1.5 to win - 1.5 units
                    2 units on Valentino shevchenko @ 3.25 to win - 4.5 units
                    Comment
                    • bjpenn85
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 02-17-11
                      • 5059

                      #80
                      A year from now i think my days at 5dimes are over:

                      Tony:
                      that is what has been restricted on your account

                      bjpenn85: exactly
                      Tony: you may play parlays
                      bjpenn85: so thats why i have no problems accessing
                      Tony: but we will no longer accept new open parlays
                      bjpenn85: so why is that?
                      Tony: so if you have something you want to fill in on an already open parlay then I can fill it for you
                      Tony: i no longer want open parlay play from you


                      They start to watch what im doing now, so this is how it starts. I have said to myself if i get thrown out from 5dimes, then im probably done with betting on MMA. I have now been thrown out at every bookie i ever signed up. The restrictions and many bans is tiring and unfair, but all betting companies are private like the casinos in las vegas, they can do what they want. Lets be honest, they are half criminals in an unregulated market arena, off course their not going to have a winning member cut back on their profits.

                      Last edited by bjpenn85; 07-23-16, 02:34 PM.
                      Comment
                      • bjpenn85
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 02-17-11
                        • 5059

                        #81
                        Adding:


                        10 units on Francis Ngannou, Matt brown @ 1.5 to win - 5 units
                        Comment
                        • bjpenn85
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 02-17-11
                          • 5059

                          #82
                          Adding:

                          5 units on Nate diaz @ 2.15 to win - 5.7 units
                          Comment
                          • mcfugly
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 05-20-12
                            • 947

                            #83
                            Betting a month ahead on diaz? Why?
                            Comment
                            • bjpenn85
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 02-17-11
                              • 5059

                              #84
                              Originally posted by mcfugly
                              Betting a month ahead on diaz? Why?
                              Im betting now to avoid that the +115 becomes even money or worse. I dont believe we will see +130 or +150. If so im going to lay even more. I agree with eddie alvarez and gilbert melendez. It takes time to become a 5 rounder. It can take years, especially for fast and explosive fighters. Now that we have USADA also, becoming a part time 5 rounder isnt that likely.
                              Comment
                              • Hugo de Naranja
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 04-14-16
                                • 14140

                                #85
                                Originally posted by bjpenn85
                                Im betting now to avoid that the +115 becomes even money or worse. I dont believe we will see +130 or +150. If so im going to lay even more. I agree with eddie alvarez and gilbert melendez. It takes time to become a 5 rounder. It can take years, especially for fast and explosive fighters. Now that we have USADA also, becoming a part time 5 rounder isnt that likely.
                                On Diaz for pretty big. Let's get it
                                Comment
                                • Hugo de Naranja
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 04-14-16
                                  • 14140

                                  #86
                                  Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
                                  Naw man this is dog-or-pass all day. Don't lay the juice!
                                  ^^^
                                  Comment
                                  • Hugo de Naranja
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 04-14-16
                                    • 14140

                                    #87
                                    Originally posted by bjpenn85
                                    Final bets: UFC ON FOX: Holm vs Shevschenko

                                    10 units on Barboza @ 1.45 to win - 4.5 units
                                    3 units on Barboza/Melendez over 2.5 rounds @ 1.5 to win - 1.5 units
                                    2 units on Valentino shevchenko @ 3.25 to win - 4.5 units
                                    You destroyed it today! Keep up the good work man!
                                    Comment
                                    • bjpenn85
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 02-17-11
                                      • 5059

                                      #88
                                      Originally posted by bjpenn85
                                      Final bets: UFC ON FOX: Holm vs Shevschenko

                                      10 units on Barboza @ 1.45 to win - 4.5 units
                                      3 units on Barboza/Melendez over 2.5 rounds @ 1.5 to win - 1.5 units
                                      2 units on Valentino shevchenko @ 3.25 to win - 4.5 units
                                      Event result: +10.5 units
                                      Results since 7th. may 2016: +41.95 units AKA 4195 dollars

                                      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1pvs9M7mXnU





                                      Comment
                                      • bjpenn85
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 02-17-11
                                        • 5059

                                        #89
                                        Originally posted by bjpenn85
                                        Its not a good parlay. Its a huge risk, not only betting holm, but going against me. Almost everytime anyone comes into this thread and opposes me, its works like a jinx. You should either have gone wiith ngannou handicap or perhaps matt brown on next card. You cant seriously bet a fight at -300 where we dont know if she actually got any advantages + a gigantic grappling disadvantage too almost every women in the division hehe...i would be concerned. Good luck though
                                        Whoooooo am iiiiiiii?? Bjpenn85 motherfakker!!!
                                        Comment
                                        • bjpenn85
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 02-17-11
                                          • 5059

                                          #90
                                          Originally posted by bjpenn85
                                          Adding:

                                          5 units on Nate diaz @ 2.15 to win - 5.7 units
                                          In short. If this fight goes out of round 2, i think Diaz will find his normal rhythm and pace and cruise to a 5 round dec or get a stoppage victory in round 4 or 5. If the fight ends in round 1 and round 2, i think MCregor. At the same time, im having a very hard time believing MCregor will come out guns blazing after what happened in the last fight, so that a finish happens in round 1 or round 2 is perhaps a bit unrealistic. That means that MCregor unwillingly as a consequence of last fights result is playing right into diaz main strength, which is a prolonged boxing matchup. I believe MCregor will have a lot of the same issues as he had in the first fight. Maybe he will meet a wall and tire in round 3 or round 4.

                                          In addition to have the advantage of a longer fight camp than 11 days, diaz has also fought at 170 punds, it may still be a very real issue for MCregor. Also the mentality is on diaz side as MCregor isnt really used to loosing and diaz did catch him. MCregor will def this time around show diaz a great deal of respect. Fear may be positive in that sense that he probably invests an abundance of traning hours and paying attention to details etc. We have already seen glimps of this as MCregor refused to show up on press conferances to focus on himself and the fight. But the fear wil also have another effect, i believe if diaz start to taunt MCregor in round 3, when shit hits the fan, that mcregor may fold again thinking " ah fakk, im tired and now he sets an even higher pace again". If someone quits like mcregor did, i think its a signature of how that person is. I think we all can go back to our childhood, do you remember that kid that always cried for little pathetic things, or that kid who always got really angry really fast? I think this is a type of neg characteristic. If you can get MCregor to quit once, i bet you can get him to do it again. He didnt quit late in round 3, it was in the middle of round 2. Its a red flag for MCregor backers.

                                          Its still a bet with a lot of risk involved, we dont know if MCregor can control diaz on the ground, or if he for some reason can actually go the full 5 rounds. He has went to several 3 round decision without as much as breathing heavy, so its not outside the realm of possibility that he may go the full 5 rounds. But even though he can, at what pace? At nate diaz pace? Probably not and thats why i see value. MCregor is not foolishly attempting to win in round 1 and round 2, which is his best shot to win therefor this may prove to be a gift as MCregor is forced to show up alone in Diaz backyard unarmed. Ironically MCregors best shot of winning is the strategy he is the least likely to apply. But who can hold that against him, he did actually loose applying that strategy a couple of months ago...
                                          Last edited by bjpenn85; 07-24-16, 04:51 AM.
                                          Comment
                                          • Mxs1332
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 03-08-16
                                            • 661

                                            #91
                                            Originally posted by bjpenn85
                                            Whoooooo am iiiiiiii?? Bjpenn85 motherfakker!!!
                                            All hail to the altar of bj

                                            Last edited by Mxs1332; 07-24-16, 08:59 AM.
                                            Comment
                                            • Mxs1332
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 03-08-16
                                              • 661

                                              #92
                                              Seriously nice work. +41.95 units since May... Some people take vacations shorter than that!
                                              Comment
                                              • bjpenn85
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 02-17-11
                                                • 5059

                                                #93
                                                Originally posted by Mxs1332
                                                Seriously nice work. +41.95 units since May... Some people take vacations shorter than that!
                                                Spanks bud!
                                                Comment
                                                • bjpenn85
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 02-17-11
                                                  • 5059

                                                  #94
                                                  UFC 201: Lawler vs Woodley

                                                  10 units on F. Ngannou, Matt Brown @ 1.5 to win 5 units
                                                  7.5 units on R.Lawler to win - 3.5 units
                                                  2 units on J.Scoggins @ 2.07 to win - 2.15 units.

                                                  - Matt brown should avoid getting Koed, except from that thers a significant gap at this point between Brown and ellenberger.

                                                  - Lawler is the likely round winner here, but dont be too suprised to see Woodley KO out lawler. Its a fight im pretty sure Lawler wins as long as he doesnt get tkoed. But except from that power right hand, woodley are to complacent letting people pressure him and taking the initiativ in fights. That will likely be his downfall if the fight goes into the championship rounds. Theres always a possibility that Woodley can Knock lawler down to the extent that lawler never comes back and therefor losing the decision. It may happen, but it isnt the most likely event to occur.

                                                  - Scoggings will win standing up, and on the ground as he can probably control mccall and stay out of submissions, which some people may find surprising. I believe hes that good. This prop has now went from +120 down to -130 on 5dimes. I think the public has understood that scoggings is the better fighter at this point and that mccall will get shewed up on the feet, but not likely finished. I see Scoggings more as a grinder on the feet than a potent finisher. At least at the top level.
                                                  Last edited by bjpenn85; 07-24-16, 12:03 PM.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • HurlSweatPants
                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                    • 07-28-15
                                                    • 951

                                                    #95
                                                    Originally posted by bjpenn85
                                                    UFC 201: Lawler vs Woodley

                                                    10 units on F. Ngannou, Matt Brown @ 1.5 to win 5 units
                                                    7.5 units on R.Lawler to win - 3.5 units
                                                    2 units on J.Scoggins @ 2.07 to win - 2.15 units.

                                                    - Matt brown should avoid getting Koed, except from that thers a significant gap at this point between Brown and ellenberger.

                                                    - Lawler is the likely round winner here, but dont be too suprised to see Woodley KO out lawler. Its a fight im pretty sure Lawler wins as long as he doesnt get tkoed. But except from that power right hand, woodley are to complacent letting people pressure him and taking the initiativ in fights. That will likely be his downfall if the fight goes into the championship rounds. Theres always a possibility that Woodley can Knock lawler down to the extent that lawler never comes back and therefor losing the decision. It may happen, but it isnt the most likely event to occur.

                                                    - Scoggings will win standing up, and on the ground he can probably control mccall and stay out of submissions, which some people may find surprising. I believe hes that good. This prop has now went from +120 al down to -130 on 5dimes. I think the public has understood that scoggings is the better fighter at this point and that mccall will get shewed up on the feet, but not likely finished. I see Scoggings more as a grinder on the feet than a potent finisher. At least at the top level.
                                                    BJ, you already made this bet, or you going to wait for the line to go down on RL? Thinking about parlay RL with Rose/KK over 2.5. But I am going to wait mid week to see the line, I think I can get -185 on RL by Wednesday.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Hugo de Naranja
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 04-14-16
                                                      • 14140

                                                      #96
                                                      Originally posted by HurlSweatPants
                                                      BJ, you already made this bet, or you going to wait for the line to go down on RL? Thinking about parlay RL with Rose/KK over 2.5. But I am going to wait mid week to see the line, I think I can get -185 on RL by Wednesday.
                                                      I like that idea. Already have Lawler to close a TON of parlays but one more couldn't hurt if the price is right.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • HurlSweatPants
                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                        • 07-28-15
                                                        • 951

                                                        #97
                                                        Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
                                                        I like that idea. Already have Lawler to close a TON of parlays but one more couldn't hurt if the price is right.
                                                        Yeah, I am on a wait and see with that line. Hoping 5D puts out the rest of the line here soon.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • bjpenn85
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 02-17-11
                                                          • 5059

                                                          #98
                                                          Originally posted by HurlSweatPants
                                                          BJ, you already made this bet, or you going to wait for the line to go down on RL? Thinking about parlay RL with Rose/KK over 2.5. But I am going to wait mid week to see the line, I think I can get -185 on RL by Wednesday.
                                                          What do you mean by, already made this bet? Scoggings and lawler was made this morning and brown and Ngannou is now closing this event.

                                                          I agree, people will probably come in on woodley a bit, especially on fight day, but the opposite may also happen so the number i got now is ok.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • HurlSweatPants
                                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                                            • 07-28-15
                                                            • 951

                                                            #99
                                                            Originally posted by bjpenn85
                                                            What do you mean by, already made this bet? Scoggings and lawler was made this morning and brown and Ngannou is now closing this event.

                                                            I agree, people will probably come in on woodley a bit, especially on fight day, but the opposite may also happen so the number i got now is ok.
                                                            You answered the question, I meant with the RL bet. You are right though, could swing the other way, RL is a fan favorite and might get the line moving the other way, I know that when the line was first posted Lawler was somewhere around a -240 from what I remember seeing. Personally, I am interested to see what we get closer to fight time before pulling the trigger, but good to see the better SBR posters on Lawler.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • bjpenn85
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 02-17-11
                                                              • 5059

                                                              #100
                                                              Originally posted by HurlSweatPants
                                                              You answered the question, I meant with the RL bet. You are right though, could swing the other way, RL is a fan favorite and might get the line moving the other way, I know that when the line was first posted Lawler was somewhere around a -240 from what I remember seeing. Personally, I am interested to see what we get closer to fight time before pulling the trigger, but good to see the better SBR posters on Lawler.
                                                              When Woodley TKO comes out, i will probably jump on it. Because i believe this is woodleys only chance of winning. I will be very suprised to see woodley stick and move for 5 round outpointing lawler. We have seen a lot of upsets this year, mostly flash KOs. Bisping and alvarez etc. But, have we ever seen an explosive counter fighter suddenly become an outside fighter/ volume fighter, outpointing the established better striker for a 5 round decision win? Never, because it cant really happen hehe...MMA are full of flukes but not miracles.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Hugo de Naranja
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 04-14-16
                                                                • 14140

                                                                #101
                                                                Originally posted by bjpenn85
                                                                When Woodley TKO comes out, i will probably jump on it. Because i believe this is woodleys only chance of winning. I will be very suprised to see woodley stick and move for 5 round outpointing lawler. We have seen a lot of upsets this year, mostly flash KOs. Bisping and alvarez etc. But, have we ever seen an explosive counter fighter suddenly become an outside fighter/ volume fighter, outpointing the established better striker for a 5 round decision win? Never, because it cant really happen hehe...MMA are full of flukes but not miracles.
                                                                I think it's been out for awhile at (+405). I like Woodley by sub at (+1303) OR Woodley Rd 1 (+850) OR Woodley Rd 2 (+1050) as better hedges than KO.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • bjpenn85
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 02-17-11
                                                                  • 5059

                                                                  #102
                                                                  Adding:

                                                                  2 units on Karolina K @ 3.25 to win - 4.4 units
                                                                  0.75 units on Woodley TKO @ 5.04 to win back - 3.03 units

                                                                  I was so disappointed over Rose after last fight, and honestly i thought she lost. In that fight i had 10 units on Rose and i kissed those dollars goodbye during that fight. For once i didnt find myself on the wrong side in a faulty def. That being said, I think Karolina K has the right style to give Rose the same problems she faced in her last outing, mixed with steller tdd, this can absolutely be a fight were rose struggles to get going. Both fighters are basically on the same level so odds are a bit lopsided here.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Hugo de Naranja
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 04-14-16
                                                                    • 14140

                                                                    #103
                                                                    Originally posted by bjpenn85
                                                                    Adding:

                                                                    2 units on Karolina K @ 3.25 to win - 4.4 units
                                                                    0.75 units on Woodley TKO @ 5.04 to win back - 3.03 units

                                                                    I was so disappointed over Rose after last fight, and honestly i thought she lost. In that fight i had 10 units on Rose and i kissed those dollars goodbye during that fight. For once i didnt find myself on the wrong side in a faulty def. That being said, I think Karolina K has the right style to give Rose the same problems she faced in her last outing, mixed with steller tdd, this can absolutely be a fight were rose struggles to get going. Both fighters are basically on the same level so odds are a bit lopsided here.
                                                                    All over KK as well. How'd you get Scoggins at +odds?
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • bjpenn85
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 02-17-11
                                                                      • 5059

                                                                      #104
                                                                      Pending bets UFC 201: Lawler vs Woodley

                                                                      10 units on F. Ngannou, Matt Brown @ 1.5 to win 5 units

                                                                      7.5 units on R.Lawler to win - 3.5 units
                                                                      2 units on J.Scoggins dec @ 2.07 to win - 2.15 units.
                                                                      1 unit on Karolina K @ 3.25 to win - 2.25 units
                                                                      0.75 units on Woodley TKO @ 5.04 to win back - 3.03 units


                                                                      Last edited by bjpenn85; 07-24-16, 04:42 PM.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • bjpenn85
                                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                        • 02-17-11
                                                                        • 5059

                                                                        #105
                                                                        Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
                                                                        All over KK as well. How'd you get Scoggins at +odds?
                                                                        Im watched a bit more tape, and im a bit torn. I think she has a good shot more due to cardio advantage more than technical ability. She often stand square in front of her opponent in exchanges with the chin straight up in the air. Rose has better footwork and is a bit quicker and has more power, although no women in 115 div have power. Scoggings by dec off course, a little mistake there.
                                                                        Comment
                                                                        SBR Contests
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        Working...