Bjpenn85s 100 unit in 2016 if not im done with SBR-O thread

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

6 units on Santiago Ponzinibbio @ 1.66 to win - 3.9 units
0.65 units on Zak Cumming by tko @ 7.5 to win back - 4.22 units

I have Santiago as the likely round winner. He has already faced a better striker in Strickland and come out on top, although getting tkoed by a more potent striker in Larkin. Wrestling shouldnt be any problems as Ponzinibbio has pretty sweet tdd. Only problem with this bet as i see it, is santiagos tendency to get clipped and tkoed. Santiagos has an annoying habit of holding his hands too low, especially after exchanges, plays right into zak cumming strength as a counter striker. We saw this in his last fight with a stahl who wasnt good enough to exploit his defence, but Larkin absolutely gave Santiago fits for this, and imo i dont think he has learned his lession yet. Except for that, if Ponzinibbio can get it going i think he wins every round in a dec or maybe a late tko as i see him as the overall better strike. Santiago also throw more punches per minute and his aggressive center of the cage demeanor likely will sway the judges in in his favour round by round.

#86 this bet. I agree with Hugo, agree with popular opinion. I dont trust his defence enough at this point. I will let the hedge ride on this bet though as i think theres a decent chance he KOs Santiago. Santiagos low hand and extreme of to taking punishment is a major factor in this fight.

[Hugo de Naranja]

#86 this bet. I agree with Hugo, agree with popular opinion. I dont trust his defence enough at this point. I will let the hedge ride on this bet though as i think theres a decent chance he KOs Santiago. Santiagos low hand and extreme of to taking punishment is a major factor in this fight.

[bjpenn85]

JIBBBY 1

bjpenn85 0

Selective posting will never have the same legitimacy as 100% transparency. I can also post every time i win and not when i loose.

Its bjpenn85 100
Jibby 0


Jibby, probably loose a lot since hes not thrown out of most bookies. Only people betting large sums knows that you cant win 1500 dollars like Jobby did on 10 sportsbooks and then not getting restricted. So this weekend Jibby should be out of business. Or he has lost a ton of money, so that overall result on hes account are red, that way, he can still continue.

You cant win large sums on 10 bookies more than 1-2 times. After that youre done. You probably dont know thrilla..

Bookies have solid controll over all bettors/members, that way they can maximise their profits. There is no police, no regulations, its an open unregulated marked full of half ass criminals. I have a friend whos a poker pro whos best friend are one of the owners of ladbroks, he confirms it. That im thrown out of all bookies confirms it, AND i was just last week again restricted from having open parlays at 5dimes just after winning 800 dollars ONE ONE SINGLE 5 LEGGED PARLAY. Listen, one fakking parlay was enough. So do you think you can win 15.000 dollars without getting restricted?

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

2 units on Cummins @ 2.35 to win - 2.7 units
1.2 units on Cummins @ 8.19 TKO to win - 9.83 units

Originally a bet on Santiago, but #86 and switched to Cummins. I think Cummins is less active, but has a better chin, and a good counter game.Hes fully happy with waiting and counter. Hes inactivity is an issue, and that he can get pressured a bit. Its still worth a shot, and what a bonus if he lands that counter punch.Because my believe is that it will land at some point, the question is more if Cummins has the capability to finish him off, as ponzinibbio likely will fight back and do whatever it takes to avoid that the fight gets stopped.

[Rich Benjamins]

Selective posting will never have the same legitimacy as 100% transparency. I can also post every time i win and not when i loose.

Its bjpenn85 100
Jibby 0


Jibby, probably loose a lot since hes not thrown out of most bookies. Only people betting large sums knows that you cant win 1500 dollars like Jobby did on 10 sportsbooks and then not getting restricted. So this weekend Jibby should be out of business. Or he has lost a ton of money, so that overall result on hes account are red, that way, he can still continue.

You cant win large sums on 10 bookies more than 1-2 times. After that youre done. You probably dont know thrilla..

Bookies have solid controll over all bettors/members, that way they can maximise their profits. There is no police, no regulations, its an open unregulated marked full of half ass criminals. I have a friend whos a poker pro whos best friend are one of the owners of ladbroks, he confirms it. That im thrown out of all bookies confirms it, AND i was just last week again restricted from having open parlays at 5dimes just after winning 800 dollars ONE ONE SINGLE 5 LEGGED PARLAY. Listen, one fakking parlay was enough. So do you think you can win 15.000 dollars without getting restricted?

Thanks for the knowledge, BJ. But then how can someone become a pro sports bettor? Can you bet and win large sums in Vegas without getting banned? This guy, MMAMAIN, constantly posts bets of $50K+ on fights.

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=212&sub=102300574

He claims to live in Vegas and bets in various casinos, primarily the MGM Grand.

[bjpenn85]

Thanks for the knowledge, BJ. But then how can someone become a pro sports bettor? Can you bet and win large sums in Vegas without getting banned? This guy, MMAMAIN, constantly posts bets of $50K+ on fights.

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=212&sub=102300574

He claims to live in Vegas and bets in various casinos, primarily the MGM Grand.

You cant win regularly large sums on sportsbooks except on 5dimes and pinnacle? But the fact that im restricted on parlays, shows that even them, have an intent to reduce theirs cost by restricting me, so ill guess you cant trust them either. Pinnacle claim to dont care about winning bettors. I just met a guy whos winning a ton of money on different sportsbooks, he said he won maybe like maybe 50.000-70.00 dollars just last summer on unibet. I know his friends because he is a friend of my best friends little brother.

I was like what f...? How do you do that? And he replied: I use other identities. Never my moms or anyone in the familiy, but rather friends or perifer friends etc.

Its different with poker, because then the bookie win a % on every table. But we, we play against the house, and win. They dont like that.

Youre guy on that forum, ask him. Where does he play, on which sportsbook? And, make him do a printscreen.

[Rich Benjamins]

As I said, I asked him and he said he bets live in Vegas mostly at the MGM Grand. I dont think he bets online. So maybe if you're in Vegas, there's no limit.

But yea, I guess using other identities could work. But then if you get caught, the sportsbook could possibly close your account and take your money. It's probably a sophisticated system, and you have to trust the person who's letting you use their identity.

[rsynweap84]

Selective posting will never have the same legitimacy as 100% transparency. I can also post every time i win and not when i loose.

Its bjpenn85 100
Jibby 0


Jibby, probably loose a lot since hes not thrown out of most bookies. Only people betting large sums knows that you cant win 1500 dollars like Jobby did on 10 sportsbooks and then not getting restricted. So this weekend Jibby should be out of business. Or he has lost a ton of money, so that overall result on hes account are red, that way, he can still continue.

You cant win large sums on 10 bookies more than 1-2 times. After that youre done. You probably dont know thrilla..

Bookies have solid controll over all bettors/members, that way they can maximise their profits. There is no police, no regulations, its an open unregulated marked full of half ass criminals. I have a friend whos a poker pro whos best friend are one of the owners of ladbroks, he confirms it. That im thrown out of all bookies confirms it, AND i was just last week again restricted from having open parlays at 5dimes just after winning 800 dollars ONE ONE SINGLE 5 LEGGED PARLAY. Listen, one fakking parlay was enough. So do you think you can win 15.000 dollars without getting restricted?

That's not good, last week 2 parlays for a total of $12.50 netted me $1025 although, I have made no intention of touching that money either, it will all be risked on 202...point of fact it pretty much is all on their atm minus a few hundred which I am using for parlays for this week and for 202. So far have not had trouble with them going through. Now BetOnline wouldn't let me parlay after my $2200 hit on Tate and Diaz, but they started again, now it's just hit and miss. Their rules indicated after that fight that boxing, mma, and I think one other sport were not going to allow parlays, but they do, it's like selective timing though.

[bjpenn85]

That's not good, last week 2 parlays for a total of $12.50 netted me $1025 although, I have made no intention of touching that money either, it will all be risked on 202...point of fact it pretty much is all on their atm minus a few hundred which I am using for parlays for this week and for 202. So far have not had trouble with them going through. Now BetOnline wouldn't let me parlay after my $2200 hit on Tate and Diaz, but they started again, now it's just hit and miss. Their rules indicated after that fight that boxing, mma, and I think one other sport were not going to allow parlays, but they do, it's like selective timing though.

Its weird not more people complain, it just goes to show how little people bet, and how little they win.

[bjpenn85]

UFC FN 92 - Rodriguez vs Ceccares

7.5 units on cub swanson @ 1.33 to win - 2.4 units
2 units on Cummins @ 2.35 to win - 2.7 units
2 units on Chris Camozzi @ 2.8 - to win - 3.6 units
1.2 units on Cummins @ 8.19 TKO to win - 9.83 units
1 unit on Alex Caceres @ 3.55 to win - 2.55 units
0.5 units Cecares by dec @ 8.5 to win - 3.75 units

Event result: -4.3 units

None of the dogs hit. Small and acceptable loss here. The card was very difficult to bet all over.

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

2.5 units on Cub swanson, A.Johnson, Gustaffson, N.Diaz, Bader, Khabilov @ 8.42 to win - 18.5 units

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

5 units on Nate Diaz @ 2.10 to win - 5.5 units (total of 10 unit)
1 unit on Nate Diaz dec @ 11.5 to win - 10.5 units
1 unit on Mcregor wins in round 1 @ 4.25 to win - 3.25 units
1 unit on Mcregor win in round 2 @ 7.75 to win back - 6.75 units

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC FN 92 - Rodriguez vs Ceccares

7.5 units on cub swanson @ 1.33 to win - 2.4 units
2 units on Cummins @ 2.35 to win - 2.7 units
2 units on Chris Camozzi @ 2.8 - to win - 3.6 units
1.2 units on Cummins @ 8.19 TKO to win - 9.83 units
1 unit on Alex Caceres @ 3.55 to win - 2.55 units
0.5 units Cecares by dec @ 8.5 to win - 3.75 units

Event result: -3.3 units

None of the dogs hit. Small and acceptable loss here. The card was very difficult to bet all over.

Isn't this actually -4.3?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Adding:

5 units on Nate Diaz @ 2.10 to win - 5.5 units (total of 10 unit)
1 unit on Nate Diaz dec @ 11.5 to win - 10.5 units
1 unit on Mcregor wins in round 1 @ 4.25 to win - 3.25 units
1 unit on Mcregor win in round 2 @ 7.75 to win back - 6.75 units

I think this is a super smart way to bet this fight. I like the value on the longshot of Diaz decision as well.

[bjpenn85]

Youre correct.

[bjpenn85]

I think this is a super smart way to bet this fight. I like the value on the longshot of Diaz decision as well.

Hopefully history repeat itself! I cant see mcregor finishing diaz, how can he then win? If he wins a dec for instance, i dont know what to say.

[Rich Benjamins]

Hey BJPenn,

I just saw this, Pinnacle says they don't restrict or ban winning players: https://www.pinnacle.com/en/promotions/winners-welcome

[bjpenn85]

Hey BJPenn,

I just saw this, Pinnacle says they don't restrict or ban winning players: https://www.pinnacle.com/en/promotions/winners-welcome

I read the article. Wish more bookies shared the same view.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Where you at BJ?

[bjpenn85]

FINAL plays UFC 202 - Diaz vs Mcregor 2

10 units on Nate Diaz @ 2.12 to win - 11.2 units
7.5 units on Donald Cerrone @ 1.63 - 4.7 units
2.5 units on Cub swanson, Nate Diaz, A.Johnson, Gustaffson, Bader, Khabilov @ 8.42 to win - 18.5 units
1 unit on Nate Diaz dec @ 11.5 to win - 10.5 units
1 unit on Mcregor wins in round 1 @ 4.25 to win - 3.25 units
1 unit on Mcregor win in round 2 @ 7.75 to win back - 6.75 units
1.25 units on Mcregor split dec @ 11.5 units - 10.3 units

[bjpenn85]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XBLUKXorsYQ

One insane video. People got to watch this.

[Hugo de Naranja]

FINAL plays UFC 202 - Diaz vs Mcregor 2

10 units on Nate Diaz @ 2.12 to win - 11.2 units
2.5 units on Cub swanson, Nate Diaz, A.Johnson, Gustaffson, Bader, Khabilov @ 8.42 to win - 18.5 units
1 unit on Nate Diaz dec @ 11.5 to win - 10.5 units
1 unit on Mcregor wins in round 1 @ 4.25 to win - 3.25 units
1 unit on Mcregor win in round 2 @ 7.75 to win back - 6.75 units
1.25 units on Mcregor split dec @ 11.5 units - 10.3 units

I like the plays best of luck! Anything other than the main event?

[bjpenn85]

I like the plays best of luck! Anything other than the main event?

Not really. Maybe there are some of the rounds bet i should look into. I have been contemplating story/cerrone over 2.5 rounds, but im not confident as Cerrone may get a sub. Story does have a granite chin, so if cerrone doesnt get the sub the fight should go the distance.

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

7.5 units on Cowboy Cerrone @ 1.63 units to win - 4.7 units

On paper, in theory, its a close fight. But is it? Think for a sec, let s say you like Rick story. What are you banking on happening a KO? Not likely. A decision? Maybe. A decision that will look a lot like Storys last fight against Saffeidine? What did Saffeidine do to Story to punish Story for grinding him at the cage? Nothing. I dont think Cerrone never will let the same thing happen. So fight starts, whos got the advantage standing? Cerrone? Whos got the advantage on the ground? Cerrone. How are Storys takedown, against elite guys, not that effective. But hes strong in the clinch. Hows Cerrone tds, pretty fluid. So if the fight ends up on the ground, it may be cerrone whos taking story down. Experiene and just about just every aspect of MMA goes to cerrone. I can see a close fight, but i can also see a ko or a submission victory for cerrone. However, i cant really see a victory for story without some fluky shit happening, like a KO or an injury from cerrone etc.

Cerrone usually loses to very technical fighters, someone that outstrike him on the feet, like dos anjos (2), pettis and diaz. I dont think Storys got the recipe to beat Cerrone. With that being said, we dont have any clear evidence in the UFC of neither fighter meeting the exact same opposition, so the fight its a bit interesting in that perspective.

I do like cerrone more than AJ @ -200, as AJ its bit fluky at times if he doesnt get the TKO, at least against elite competition in the ufc. Cerrone doesnt have the same flaws, and at -160 i rather want a guys with less flaws. But, a cerrone finish is less likely, so i understand the odds, but i prefer cerrone out of those two fights.

[bjpenn85]

FINAL plays UFC 202 - Diaz vs Mcregor 2

10 units on Nate Diaz @ 2.12 to win - 11.2 units
7.5 units on Donald Cerrone @ 1.63 - 4.7 units
2.5 units on Cub swanson, Nate Diaz, A.Johnson, Gustaffson, Bader, Khabilov @ 8.42 to win - 18.5 units
1 unit on Nate Diaz dec @ 11.5 to win - 10.5 units
1 unit on Mcregor wins in round 1 @ 4.25 to win - 3.25 units
1 unit on Mcregor win in round 2 @ 7.75 to win back - 6.75 units
1.25 units on Mcregor split dec @ 11.5 units - 10.3 units

[Hugo de Naranja]

Not really. Maybe there are some of the rounds bet i should look into. I have been contemplating story/cerrone over 2.5 rounds, but im not confident as Cerrone may get a sub. Story does have a granite chin, so if cerrone doesnt get the sub the fight should go the distance.

I like Cerrone ML, Fight Goes Distance, and Cerrone Decision although I think there's an outside chance that Story hurts Cowboy with a body blow and finishes with strikes.

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

7.5 units on Cowboy Cerrone @ 1.63 units to win - 4.7 units

On paper, in theory, its a close fight. But is it? Think for a sec, let s say you like Rick story. What are you banking on happening a KO? Not likely. A decision? Maybe. A decision that will look a lot like Storys last fight against Saffeidine? What did Saffeidine do to Story to punish Story for grinding him at the cage? Nothing. I dont think Cerrone never will let the same thing happen. So fight starts, whos got the advantage standing? Cerrone? Whos got the advantage on the ground? Cerrone. How are Storys takedown, against elite guys, not that effective. But hes strong in the clinch. Hows Cerrone tds, pretty fluid. So if the fight ends up on the ground, it may be cerrone whos taking story down. Experiene and just about just every aspect of MMA goes to cerrone. I can see a close fight, but i can also see a ko or a submission victory for cerrone. However, i cant really see a victory for story without some fluky shit happening, like a KO or an injury from cerrone etc.

Cerrone usually loses to very technical fighters, someone that outstrike him on the feet, like dos anjos (2), pettis and diaz. I dont think Storys got the recipe to beat Cerrone. With that being said, we dont have any clear evidence in the UFC of neither fighter meeting the exact same opposition, so the fight its a bit interesting in that perspective.

I do like cerrone more than AJ @ -200, as AJ its bit fluky at times if he doesnt get the TKO, at least against elite competition in the ufc. Cerrone doesnt have the same flaws, and at -160 i rather want a guys with less flaws. But, a cerrone finish is less likely, so i understand the odds, but i prefer cerrone out of those two fights.

Cerrones own opinion http://podbay.fm/show/1124228879/e/1...60?autostart=1

Bashing storys technique.

[bjpenn85]

FINAL plays UFC 202 - Diaz vs Mcregor 2

10 units on Nate Diaz @ 2.12 to win - 11.2 units
7.5 units on Donald Cerrone @ 1.63 - 4.7 units
2.5 units on Cub swanson, Nate Diaz, A.Johnson, Gustaffson, Bader, Khabilov @ 8.42 to win - 18.5 units
1 unit on Nate Diaz dec @ 11.5 to win - 10.5 units
1 unit on Mcregor wins in round 1 @ 4.25 to win - 3.25 units
1 unit on Mcregor win in round 2 @ 7.75 to win back - 6.75 units
1.25 units on Mcregor split dec @ 11.5 units - 10.3 units

Result: + 1.8 units
Results since 7th. may 2016: + 32.8 units


Horrible horrible dec. I should have 20+ units from this event, instead 0.5 units. Is it rigged? i just dont know what to believe, its always....always not in your favour. Its not a coin flip, you know conors def going to win it if it goes to dec. spit/major dec prop saved my ass but, fakk..i should have 20 units from nate and then another fakkin 5 from cerrone...and am left with 0.5 units....its not fair.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Result: + 0.5 units
Results since 7th. may 2016: + 31 units


Horrible horrible dec. I should have 20+ units from this event, instead 0.5 units. Is it rigged? i just dont know what to believe, its always....always not in your favour. Its not a coin flip, you know conors def going to win it if it goes to dec. spit/major dec prop saved my ass but, fakk..i should have 20 units from nate and then another fakkin 5 from cerrone...and am left with 0.5 units....its not fair.

Nate losing the decision was a big swing for me as well. Managed to make a few units anyways. On to the next...

[bjpenn85]

A bit of mis calculating there, still awful result in regards to the circumstances.

[Hugo de Naranja]

A bit of mis calculating there, still awful result in regards to the circumstances.

A guess a + night is better than a - night but this one hurt a bit for sure.

[bjpenn85]

A guess a + night is better than a - night but this one hurt a bit for sure.

So close to hitting over 25 units, so so close.

[bjpenn85]

adding:

5 units on Gustaffson inside distance @ 1.80 to win - 4 units

Im always a bit hesitant to hit inside props, as i continuously during my betting career so far has lost a ton a money on fighters supposedly winning quickly. Its a chance Gustaffson goes to dec here, but i really doubt it. Gustaffson usually finish fighters outside the top 10, and he also needs an impressive win after consecutive losses. Hes given an easy matchup to look good, and hopefully he will. The pole doesnt present any major problems that Gustaffson should struggle to get past, standing or on the ground. Frankly, this is a fight where he can let loose and go to town on blachowicz. He has 15 minutes to get a sub or a tko, my prediction is that he will, even if it comes late in round 3.

[Hugo de Naranja]

adding:

5 units on Gustaffson inside distance @ 1.80 to win - 4 units

Im always a bit hesitant to hit inside props, as i continuously during my betting career so far has lost a ton a money on fighters supposedly winning quickly. Its a chance Gustaffson goes to dec here, but i really doubt it. Gustaffson usually finish fighters outside the top 10, and he also needs an impressive win after consecutive losses. Hes given an easy matchup to look good, and hopefully he will. The pole doesnt present any major problems that Gustaffson should struggle to get past, standing or on the ground. Frankly, this is a fight where he can let loose and go to town on blachowicz. He has 15 minutes to get a sub or a tko, my prediction is that he will, even if it comes late in round 3.

Not sure about this one. His opponent seems really tough. I might just stay away from this fight all together myself.

[bjpenn85]

Not sure about this one. His opponent seems really tough. I might just stay away from this fight all together myself.

I will re-consider his toughness .