Bjpenn85s 100 unit in 2016 if not im done with SBR-O thread

[bjpenn85]

Adding hedge:

2 units on Gustaffson by dec @ 3.0 to win back - 4 units

[Hugo de Naranja]

Adding hedge:

2 units on Gustaffson by dec @ 3.0 to win back - 4 units

Best of luck!

[firekillex]

i like gus by decision in this 3 rounder , will be a great fight blachowicz is super tough and has fought a ton of huge hitters and hasnt be knocked out, gus can is elite and could definitely get the finish but in a 3 rounder i like the decision prop , gus may want 3 rounds to try some new techniques out

[bjpenn85]

i like gus by decision in this 3 rounder , will be a great fight blachowicz is super tough and has fought a ton of huge hitters and hasnt be knocked out, gus can is elite and could definitely get the finish but in a 3 rounder i like the decision prop , gus may want 3 rounds to try some new techniques out

I think both you and hugo has some very valid points. Blachowichz defence is good enough to not get stopped. Maybe ill actually end up playing gustaffson by dec instead. Im waiting in hope for a couple of soft lines from kalikas before i start to change things up.

[dhristov211]

Result: + 1.8 units
Results since 7th. may 2016: + 32.8 units


Horrible horrible dec. I should have 20+ units from this event, instead 0.5 units. Is it rigged? i just dont know what to believe, its always....always not in your favour. Its not a coin flip, you know conors def going to win it if it goes to dec. spit/major dec prop saved my ass but, fakk..i should have 20 units from nate and then another fakkin 5 from cerrone...and am left with 0.5 units....its not fair.

via http://www.5thround.com/201746/conor...-diaz-rematch/

last paragraph is truth

As if losing to Diaz on just 11 days’ notice as a heavy 5.5-1 odds-on favorite wasn’t bad enough, two straight losses to Mr. 209 would be an even more devastating blow to the McGregor brand, even if both bouts took place at welterweight.

Hopefully for McGregor, and the UFC, his lefty investment will pay big dividends.

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

6 units on Di Chirico, Laprise @ 1.91 to win - 5.4 units
2 units on Charles Oliveira @ 2.50 to win - 3 units

This card is not a card to bet heavy. A lot of mid level talent, without the consistency or the skill to lay any kind of big money. When that being said, to take the first parlay first. I do think De chirico is the all around better fighter. Good defensive qualities, improving standup and a good wrestling game. I do think he is quite the accurate striker. He tagged Belickovic a lot, and im not even sure Bojan actually won that fight. Its not tat mclellan cant win this fight, but he has shown in the bubba bush fight he can get taken down, and that he isnt really a good striker. I dont know how much stock one should put into the Cedenblad fight. Cedenblad had so much reach on Mclellan but he did get KOed, so that isnt positive in terms of defensive qualities. He did show that he has footwork of disengagement so if he can stick and move maybe he can frustrate de chirico. But i dont see it.

Laprise is just the overall better fighter, without a doubt better on the feet, but also probably better grappling as well. What sticks out in this matchup is Goutis weak defence. He was almost KOed against Kuivanen, and then knocked down before getting submitted against Packalen, so if Laprise looses this fight a lot of people will raise their eyebrows, but fluke KOs happens in MMA.

Charles oliveira vs Pettis. This is more or less a value bet, as i see some value in Oliveira here. I view it more as a coin toss for several reasons. I dont know where Pettis is at this point. He has lost arguably against the world number 1, 2 and 3, so the losses are as legit as they come. His main problem has been that he lets his opponent dictate the pace of the fight. Pettis usually needs space to operate and with Oliveiras forward pressure it may so be that he doesnt get that space. The BJJ will probably be nullified but after some thoughts i do think Oliveira can get takedowns as well, and Oliveiras BJJ is so good you almost have to favour him if its going to the ground, but this is an unknown. I do think that if Stephans can get out of all of oliveiras submission attempts, although so many were seconds away from getting completed, you got to belive pettis has the same defensive bjj skills. What have impressed me with Oliveira is that he has really good takedowns. He was able to get stephans down almost at will in their fights which i think nobody really believed prefight, cause stephans tdd isnt the worst. So if Oliveira try, perhaps he can get Pettis to the ground. Oliveira skills on the feet is ok, in terms of his offensive skills, he uses the push kick a lot and he also has decent 1 2s, but his defence is horrible. If its one big flaw in his game, thats it. Oliveira is so fragile its not even funy, so if it becomes a pure fight in the middle of the ring, in open space, i really dont think Oliveira will win. If Oliveira can somehow get out of a fight not getting knocked out, or rocked against stephans, there are good chances of him winning this fight due to being the more active fighter on the feet, not allowing pettis to get off and also getting takedowns.

I will like to add that despite Pettis have lost three in a row, we may criminally undervalue him at these odds. If looking past his losses Antony pettis was the champion for a reason in the light weight division. He met guys that could either muscle him around or a specialist in barboza that outstruck him. Pettis is the overall better fighter, and if winkeljohn and jackson can make him believe himself again, he can win this fight in the first round.

Its possible i will hedge this play with Pettis TKO, or play pettis SU later if the price is right or just let it ride as it is only 2 units.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Adding:

6 units on Di Chirico, Laprise @ 1.91 to win - 5.4 units
2 units on Charles Oliveira @ 2.50 to win - 3 units

This card is not a card to bet heavy. A lot of mid level talent, without the consistency or the skill to lay any kind of big money. When that being said, to take the first parlay first. I do think De chirico is the all around better fighter. Good defensive qualities, improving standup and a good wrestling game. I do think he is quite the accurate striker. He tagged Belickovic a lot, and im not even sure Bojan actually won that fight. Its not tat mclellan cant win this fight, but he has shown in the bubba bush fight he can get taken down, and that he isnt really a good striker. I dont know how much stock one should put into the Cedenblad fight. Cedenblad had so much reach on Mclellan but he did get KOed, so that isnt positive in terms of defensive qualities. He did show that he has footwork of disengagement so if he can stick and move maybe he can frustrate de chirico. But i dont see it.

Laprise is just the overall better fighter, without a doubt better on the feet, but also probably better grappling as well. What sticks out in this matchup is Goutis weak defence. He was almost KOed against Kuivanen, and then knocked down before getting submitted against Packalen, so if Laprise looses this fight a lot of people will raise their eyebrows, but fluke KOs happens in MMA.

Charles oliveira vs Pettis. This is more or less a value bet, as i see some value in Oliveira here. I view it more as a coin toss for several reasons. I dont know where Pettis is at this point. He has lost arguably against the world number 1, 2 and 3, so the losses are as legit as they come. His main problem has been that he lets his opponent dictate the pace of the fight. Pettis usually needs space to operate and with Oliveiras forward pressure it may so be that he doesnt get that space. The BJJ will probably be nullified but after some thoughts i do think Oliveira can get takedowns as well, and Oliveiras BJJ is so good you almost have to favour him if its going to the ground, but this is an unknown. I do think that if Stephans can get out of all of oliveiras submission attempts, although so many were seconds away from getting completed, you got to belive pettis has the same defensive bjj skills. What have impressed me with Oliveira is that he has really good takedowns. He was able to get stephans down almost at will in their fights which i think nobody really believed prefight, cause stephans tdd isnt the worst. So if Oliveira try, perhaps he can get Pettis to the ground. Oliveira skills on the feet is ok, in terms of his offensive skills, he uses the push kick a lot and he also has decent 1 2s, but his defence is horrible. If its one big flaw in his game, thats it. Oliveira is so fragile its not even funy, so if it becomes a pure fight in the middle of the ring, in open space, i really dont think Oliveira will win. If Oliveira can somehow get out of a fight not getting knocked out, or rocked against stephans, there are good chances of him winning this fight due to being the more active fighter on the feet, not allowing pettis to get off and also getting takedowns.

I will like to add that despite Pettis have lost three in a row, we may criminally undervalue him at these odds. If looking past his losses Antony pettis was the champion for a reason in the light weight division. He met guys that could either muscle him around or a specialist in barboza that out strike him. Pettis is the overall better fighter, and can winkeljohn and jackson can make him believe himself again, he can win this fight in the first round.

Its possible i will hedge this play with Pettis TKO, or play pettis TKO if the price is right or just let it ride as it is only 2 units.

Love both of this plays and your rationale behind them seems good as well. I'm on 'em too so hopefully we hit.

[bjpenn85]

Love both of this plays and your rationale behind them seems good as well. I'm on 'em too so hopefully we hit.

I did mean Pettis SU if the price is right..

[bjpenn85]

My concern for Oliveira here is that he is so fragile. He doesnt have top level defence, it quite likely pettis may expose this hole. This upright posture of his make him susceptible for both body shots and strikes to the head. He cant let Pettis tie off. Oliveira is a complete pussy, he has no heart or will, but his wrestling, scrambling, his jits, and offensive striking and knees in the clinch is very good. And he is a pressure fighter. So a lot of things to like about him, the one glaring hole is so large that it almost take all of his good attributes away hehe. Kind of funny actually.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I did mean Pettis SU if the price is right..

Huh? I'm confused haha

[bjpenn85]

Huh? I'm confused haha

If people are coming heavy in on Pettis on Saturday + new information about Pettis i may change things up. Its a value bet i do think its 50/50, but i can change my mind on this bet. You want see any cancellations of the first parlay. But there are many x-facors in this particular matchup som im not 100% confident that im on the correct side. If Pettis loses to Oliveira, his days are over. Its hard to see him coming back if this is a decisive win for Oliveira.

[Hugo de Naranja]

If people are coming heavy in on Pettis on Saturday + new information about Pettis i may change things up. Its a value bet i do think its 50/50, but i can change my mind on this bet. You want see any cancellations of the first parlay. But there are many x-facors in this particular matchup som im not 100% confident that im on the correct side. If Pettis loses to Oliveira, his days are over. Its hard to see him coming back if this is a decisive win for Oliveira.

Fair enough

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

7.5 units on Di Chirico @ 1.47 to win - 3.5 units

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

#86 Oliveira due to favourable line on Di chirico. Probably play Pettis inside if the line is good enough.

[bjpenn85]

Pending plays for: UFC ON FOX - MAIA VS CONDIT

7.5 units on Di Chirico @ 1.47 to win - 3.5 units
6 units on Di Chirico, Laprise @ 1.91 to win - 5.4 units

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

5 units on Kyle Bochniak @ 1.58 to win - 2.9 units

Bockniak is the better striker, and has the overall better wrestling game. On the feet he lacks variety of strikes, but hes quite crisp. I have no idea why three judges went with Rosa in his last fight. He dropped Rosa three times during that fight. And in the last round he both dropped Rosa and got a takedown and didnt look bad, yet one of the judges gave rosa 30-27. I actually had Bochniak winning that fight 29-28. His wrestling is good, good reactive takedowns, good tdd and he is also very good at scrambling back up if taken down. He will not just lay in guard and loose point, which shows good fighter IQ.

So hes better on the feet, and on the ground against a fighter that loves to dry hump fighters, who that part of his game is his bread and butter to win fights.Barzola isnt bad, his athletic and has overall ok kickboxing. He can throw a leg kick and he his hands doesnt look bad when he throws a punch, i just dont think Barzola can win a three round fight where someone can negate his wrestling at least not someone of Bochniaks level. Rosa couldnt take down Bochniak and in my opinion arguably lost the fight, so if barzola cant win against Mollinedo or Fernando Bruno, he shouldnt win against Bochniak.

When that being sad, it can be a close 29-28, or Bochniak may get a late stoppage when Barzola start to get tired in the last round. Im willing to take take a shot that Barzola cant adjust his style in one camp to win against a fighter that has the right skillset, toughness and style to beat Barzola.

[bjpenn85]

Pending bets: UFC ON FOX - MAIA VS CONDIT

7.5 units on Di Chirico @ 1.47 to win - 3.5 units
6 units on Di Chirico, Laprise @ 1.91 to win - 5.4 units
5 units on Kyle Bochniak @ 1.58 to win - 2.9 units

[latarianmilton]

Man im not sure on Di Chirico, i think im gonna play Mclellan if his odds move up.
Chirico is one of those good prospects and Mclellan is nothing special i actually played the Cedenblad -400 line in his last fight because of how harmless he is.
The thing is i don't like the style matchup at all, Mclellan wants the fight at long range where he can score with his kicks and thats exactly what Chirico did vs Bohanovic, its a close fight on the feet and the grappling part is unknown Mclellan got out of some very bad spots vs Bush.

Really liking Maia on the main event, my only play so far.

[bjpenn85]

Man im not sure on Di Chirico, i think im gonna play Mclellan if his odds move up.
Chirico is one of those good prospects and Mclellan is nothing special i actually played the Cedenblad -400 line in his last fight because of how harmless he is.
The thing is i don't like the style matchup at all, Mclellan wants the fight at long range where he can score with his kicks and thats exactly what Chirico did vs Bohanovic, its a close fight on the feet and the grappling part is unknown Mclellan got out of some very bad spots vs Bush.


Really liking Maia on the main event, my only play so far.

Well, while thats true, he did loose the fight up until that point, but youre making some valid points. I do think he can continue his stick and move game plan he did have some brief success with against cedenblad and win a split dec.

[bjpenn85]

Man im not sure on Di Chirico, i think im gonna play Mclellan if his odds move up.
Chirico is one of those good prospects and Mclellan is nothing special i actually played the Cedenblad -400 line in his last fight because of how harmless he is.
The thing is i don't like the style matchup at all, Mclellan wants the fight at long range where he can score with his kicks and thats exactly what Chirico did vs Bohanovic, its a close fight on the feet and the grappling part is unknown Mclellan got out of some very bad spots vs Bush.

Really liking Maia on the main event, my only play so far.

I dont think Maia is "good bet". If maia cant get a submission, he can start to tire, for instance like he did against macdonald. I do agree with what Zane Simon from bloody elbow said. It can be a question of when Maia tires, and we dont know when that could be. Middle of second round? middle of third round? Im leaning maia as well, but im not betting the fight.

[bjpenn85]

Final bets: UFC ON FOX - MAIA VS CONDIT

7.5 units on Di Chirico @ 1.47 to win - 3.5 units
6 units on Di Chirico, Laprise @ 1.91 to win - 5.4 units
5 units on Kyle Bochniak @ 1.58 to win - 2.9 units

Tempting to bet Pettis and vanzant dec and lauzon, but ultimately im sticking to bets where my confidence is the strongest. Good luck peops!

[Hugo de Naranja]

Final bets: UFC ON FOX - MAIA VS CONDIT

7.5 units on Di Chirico @ 1.47 to win - 3.5 units
6 units on Di Chirico, Laprise @ 1.91 to win - 5.4 units
5 units on Kyle Bochniak @ 1.58 to win - 2.9 units

Tempting to bet Pettis and vanzant dec and lauzon, but ultimately im sticking to bets where my confidence is the strongest. Good luck peops!

Good luck bud!

[pabonaparte]

What do you think of judging decisions so far? Specifically in the Di Chirico and Bochniak fights? Would you be upset if they scored it the same but you were on the opposite figher in either of them?

[bjpenn85]

What do you think of judging decisions so far? Specifically in the Di Chirico and Bochniak fights? Would you be upset if they scored it the same but you were on the opposite figher in either of them?

Di chirico dec was awful, that should have been a 29-28 or a 30-27 to di chirico. Kyle Bochniak should have lost, correct scorecard should been 29-28 Barzola.

So many decisions never go my way, nice with on match that does, for once.

[bjpenn85]

Final bets: UFC ON FOX - MAIA VS CONDIT

7.5 units on Di Chirico @ 1.47 to win - 3.5 units
6 units on Di Chirico, Laprise @ 1.91 to win - 5.4 units
5 units on Kyle Bochniak @ 1.58 to win - 2.9 units

Event result: + 11.8 units
Results since 7th. may 2016: + 44.6 units

Back on track. Some luck with the Kyle bochniak bet, fight was a lot closer than expected due to Barzolas last camp. More or less every fight watched on tape was wasted. A really good reminder that one should be careful with betting on developing fighters, they can and will look very different from fight to fight.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Final bets: UFC ON FOX - MAIA VS CONDIT

7.5 units on Di Chirico @ 1.47 to win - 3.5 units
6 units on Di Chirico, Laprise @ 1.91 to win - 5.4 units
5 units on Kyle Bochniak @ 1.58 to win - 2.9 units

Event result: + 11.8 units
Results since 7th. may 2016: + 44.6 units

Back on track. Some luck with the Kyle bochniak bet, fight was a lot closer than expected due to Barzolas last camp. More or less every fight watched on tape was wasted. A really good reminder that one should be careful with betting on developing fighters, they can and will look very different from fight to fight.

Split decision city but it works. Cheers bud

[bjpenn85]

Split decision city but it works. Cheers bud

Spanks broh!

[Thrilla]

Could be a good thing Barzola didn't get the Win. This way he will stay under the radar and we might get good odds for his next fight. We will see.

[bjpenn85]

Could be a good thing Barzola didn't get the Win. This way he will stay under the radar and we might get good odds for his next fight. We will see.

True, a lot of betting opportunities emerge from faulty split decisions.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Could be a good thing Barzola didn't get the Win. This way he will stay under the radar and we might get good odds for his next fight. We will see.

I was thinking the same thing

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

13 units on Ashlee Evans-Smith @ 1.39 to win - 5.1 units

Ashlee is the better wrestler and striker. She has some holes in her striking and in her sub defence. But, the discrepancy in the level of oppositions of the two are significant. Evans-Smith has met good fighters and been competitive in the UFC, while Malecedo arguably lost clearly against a fighter who was 2-0, of those two victories both fighters had a loosing record and very few fights. This matchup is kind of representative of the extreme low level WMMA can produce. I dont think its likely were going to see a very even fight with Macedos bad tdd and rudimentary striking, vs an four time all american who at least improve fight by fight despite her all around deficiencies.

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

*86 Jack Hermansson. While i do think he will win, im not confident enough to place a 5 unit bet on him against Scott Askham. Askham is a very good fighter, especially on the feet therefore im not so sure Hermansson strenght which is the groundgame will expose Askhams in this particular fight.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Adding:

*86 Jack Hermansson. While i do think he will win, im not confident enough to place a 5 unit bet on him against Scott Askham. Askham is a very good fighter, especially on the feet therefore im not so sure Hermansson strenght which is the groundgame will expose Askhams in this particular fight.

Hermansson seams decent but I've got Askham here.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Adding:

13 units on Ashlee Evans-Smith @ 1.39 to win - 5.1 units

Ashlee is the better wrestler and striker. She has some holes in her striking and in her sub defence. But, the discrepancy in the level of oppositions of the two are significant. Evans-Smith has met good fighters and been competitive in the UFC, while Malecedo arguably lost clearly against a fighter who was 2-0, of those two victories both fighters had a loosing record and very few fights. This matchup is kind of representative of the extreme low level WMMA can produce. I dont think its likely were going to see a very even fight with Macedos bad tdd and rudimentary striking, vs an four time all american who at least improve fight by fight despite her all around deficiencies.

I would strongly encourage you not to bet AES straight here. Women's Bantamweight has been a total shit-show of late and the value is almost always on the dog. AES is not a particularly good fighter and even though I bet her in her last fight, I think she should have lost to Reneau. She lost 4 of her last 5 amateur bouts but has shown good finishing ability throughout her career. If you are still confident she will dominate this fight bet AES -3.5 at +money for a way better return. She does have strong power and has finished opponents late.

[bjpenn85]

Hermansson seams decent but I've got Askham here.

Im not on any, just canceled 5 unit on hermansson.