on3's MLB 2012 Opening Game system thread 194-8 last year +60 units

**Cheme82** · 07-25-12, 12:08 PM

Hey guys I went through this chase system stage a couple of years ago and spent crazy amounts of time back testing, adding filters, etc. It doesn't work in the long run. The problem is that I was fooling myself by creating filters to make previous losses disappear. But that doesn't help prevent future losses. Also you are increasing bets every time a team losses, which means that you are risking more on a team that has not been playing well, think about that for a second.

Anyway, I'm not going to wish you all to lose all your bankrolls so you learn the lesson (I actually had a winning season in MLB and NBA chasing) but I understood that it was just a matter of time before I got crushed, so I stopped playing it. I wish you the best and hope that you make some $ the rest of the season. Just wanted to let you guys know that all the time invested in back testing and keeping track of plays can be better spent working other angles. Chase systems are -EV long term, period.

Also wanted to warn you that if you are not a pro and are accumulating points to buy something, when you do become a pro (because you can't buy much at the store if you are not one) they only let you keep 5k points, so don't accumulate any more than that and then become pro because you will be losing points.

Peace.

**lapi7** · 07-25-12, 12:59 PM

Hey Cheme...nice to hear from you.

We spoke at length several times about the half point calc.

I hope you and your family are doing well and your studies at school are also going along well.

Thanks, as usual, for your dedication and input regarding this particular chase system.

I have always found the information you provide to be invaluable!!!

I chase 2 quarters during NBA and have found it very profitable.

Would love to hook up w you this coming NBA season.

Best to you and yours my friend.

**thelimit0310** · 07-25-12, 01:19 PM

I whole-heartedly disagree Cheme82. Sports are games of probability. These probabilities are defined by statistics. Whether you chase or handicap you are betting on a certain statistical outcome given a set of circumstances. A proper chase system will utilize a certain set of these circumstances for a profit. Many chase systems fail because they play on statistical trends and not statistical facts (short term and long term averages respectively). This is where backtesting comes into play. You must backtest long enough to fully reveal the statistical average of a circumstance (the larger the sample the more accurate the stat). If you can prove a long term statistical average, you have a profitable chase system. Just like all probability this long term statistical average is a statistical fact until the sport itself is changed; rendering those "future losses" you mention completely pointless as they can be predicted. Now, does this mean I can predict which season will win a shit ton of units and which season won't? Absolutely not. But it does mean I can say with confidence that a chase system based on a statistical fact will show a long term profit (for the same reasons I can say with confidence the long term results of flipping a coin will be 50%) until the game itself is changed.

It's simple probability and statistics and explains why most chase systems on here are failures. Either the creator did not find a particularly good set of circumstances (arguably the hardest part of crafting a system) or did not backtest long enough to fully reveal its average.

**knugen** · 07-25-12, 02:10 PM

Easypeasy win

**on3** · 07-25-12, 07:18 PM

UPDATED for 07/26/2012
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 111-11-0; Profit: -15.25 units
Filtered System: 39-2-0; Profit: +17.5 units
5/2 chase: 16-2-0; profit: +17 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 70-54; 24-16
Game 2 (B) win = 31-21; 10-9; 11-7
Game 3 (C) win = 10-11; 5-2; 5-2

RESHUFFLED LABBY LINES FOR 07/26/2012
68-65-73-73
62-61-98-88
x-103-95-x

New Line Filtered
50-50-50-58
70-70-70-78

REGULAR FOR 07/26/2012
(A) ARZ -160 to win 73

Filtered
ARZ to win 108

5/2
none

**stevex** · 07-25-12, 07:36 PM

Nice win, but still got some work to do fellas so lets get it this weekend!

**darkmatter117** · 07-25-12, 08:46 PM

Here's what I came up with applying the home winning percentage (HWP) filter to the second half of the season. Note that unit calculations assume the player was using a Martingale system.

Since 2004, the unfiltered system without the HWP filter:

Total record: 533-34
Wins per season: 66.6
Losses per season: 4.25
Total units: 64.85
Units per season: 8.11
Median units per season: 7.07
Negative seasons: 4
Best season: +45.18
Worst season: -30.33

Since 2004, the unfiltered system with the HWP filter:

Total record: 449-28
Wins per season: 56.1
Losses per season: 3.5
Total units: 69.53
Units per season: 8.69
Median units per season: 12.29
Negative seasons: 3
Best season: +39.55
Worst season: -26.14

**darkmatter117** · 07-25-12, 08:56 PM

In the best season, the HWP filter would have prevented three losses, turning a -16.82 season into +9.16. On the flip side, there was a season in which it would have cost 19 wins without preventing any losses, reducing a +45.18-unit season into +24.18 units. All told, I'd say it's worth applying.

**JFM727** · 07-25-12, 08:57 PM

**Cheme82** · 07-26-12, 12:09 AM

Originally posted by lapi7

Hey Cheme...nice to hear from you.

We spoke at length several times about the half point calc.

I hope you and your family are doing well and your studies at school are also going along well.

Thanks, as usual, for your dedication and input regarding this particular chase system.

I have always found the information you provide to be invaluable!!!

I chase 2 quarters during NBA and have found it very profitable.

Would love to hook up w you this coming NBA season.

Best to you and yours my friend.

Once baskets start again, I'm gonna take you on a prop ride bro, get ready. What's up with the pro thing? Give me a call or e-mail me.

**Cheme82** · 07-26-12, 12:11 AM

Originally posted by thelimit0310

I whole-heartedly disagree Cheme82. Sports are games of probability. These probabilities are defined by statistics. Whether you chase or handicap you are betting on a certain statistical outcome given a set of circumstances. A proper chase system will utilize a certain set of these circumstances for a profit. Many chase systems fail because they play on statistical trends and not statistical facts (short term and long term averages respectively). This is where backtesting comes into play. You must backtest long enough to fully reveal the statistical average of a circumstance (the larger the sample the more accurate the stat). If you can prove a long term statistical average, you have a profitable chase system. Just like all probability this long term statistical average is a statistical fact until the sport itself is changed; rendering those "future losses" you mention completely pointless as they can be predicted. Now, does this mean I can predict which season will win a shit ton of units and which season won't? Absolutely not. But it does mean I can say with confidence that a chase system based on a statistical fact will show a long term profit (for the same reasons I can say with confidence the long term results of flipping a coin will be 50%) until the game itself is changed.

It's simple probability and statistics and explains why most chase systems on here are failures. Either the creator did not find a particularly good set of circumstances (arguably the hardest part of crafting a system) or did not backtest long enough to fully reveal its average.

Quick question. You have a "B" bet going later today. Your statistical facts tell you that the favorite will win this game 60% of the time. Line opens at -165 ans is -175 by game time, do you make the "B" bet?

**CrazyCarl** · 07-26-12, 02:20 AM

5/2 on arizona, right?

**knugen** · 07-26-12, 04:25 AM

Misunderstood

**darkmatter117** · 07-26-12, 09:39 AM

By the way, if you were to flat bet unfiltered B bets (meaning the A bet was a loss), it would have been good for +21 units total since 2004. The ROI was like 2%, though. Filtered B bets didn't do as well (like +9 or 10 units), but if you bump the "filter" up to a total of 9.5, suddenly it's good for +23 units and like a 4% ROI.

Unfiltered C bets (meaning both A and B bets lost) wouldn't have worked out flat betting (like -9 units). But filtered C bets made roughly 28 units with a 10% ROI.

To be clear, when I say "flat bet unfiltered B bets," the unit totals assume you abstain from betting on the A bet and then flat bet on the B bet. The same for C bets -- it means you abstain from betting on A and B bets and flat bet on the C bets.

**on3** · 07-26-12, 02:13 PM

Originally posted by CrazyCarl

5/2 on arizona, right?

only if arizona loses today. this is game 1 of their 4 game set.

**J.M. Disciple** · 07-26-12, 03:15 PM

Think Darkmatter who seems to be a very efficient back tester deserves some more points for his post. Unfortunately I can only give 2pts a day. Please be generous for his 7 or 8 year back test takes a lot of time and is very tedious.

**CrazyCarl** · 07-26-12, 07:10 PM

Originally posted by on3

only if arizona loses today. this is game 1 of their 4 game set.

Whoops. Thought the post you put for 7/26 was actually the post for 7/25. I haven't had much time to catch up with these things lately..

**on3** · 07-27-12, 12:09 AM

UPDATED for 07/27/2012
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 111-11-0; Profit: -21 units
Filtered System: 39-2-0; Profit: +9 units
5/2 chase: 16-2-0; profit: +17 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 70-55; 24-17
Game 2 (B) win = 31-21; 10-9; 11-7
Game 3 (C) win = 10-11; 5-2; 5-2

RESHUFFLED LABBY LINES FOR 07/27/2012
88-85-83-81
62-61-98-146
x-103-95-x

New Line Filtered
70-70-76-78
70-70-70-164

REGULAR FOR 07/27/2012
(B) ARZ -140 to win 146
(A) NYY -165 to win 81
(A) LAA -170 to win 83
(A) SF -190/+120 bet 85 -- play RL

Filtered
ARZ to win 164
NYY to win 78

5/2
ARZ to win 100

**on3** · 07-27-12, 01:41 AM

Delete

**J.M. Disciple** · 07-27-12, 11:13 PM

surprised no one else posted yet... nice big day for this system pending SF which I am on the other side of that game via JM so do not mind this system losing that one, but still should be around 11 or 12 units today for the regular system a lone. Then another 12 for the filtered and another 5 for the 5/2 system. Playing all 3 systems would net you around 29 units today :-) Congrats!!! Everyone. Huge bankroll increase for people hope everyone carries this stretch into the Olympic weekend.

GO USA!!!!! (might be betting against them in some spreads though).

**on3** · 07-28-12, 01:11 PM

SF -105 to win 141

**Bdolan33** · 07-28-12, 01:28 PM

Thanks for posting the plays for those who cant figure out the system

**txrangers** · 07-28-12, 02:51 PM

thanks.

**stevex** · 07-28-12, 02:54 PM

C'mon San Fran, cap off a nice weekend here.

**txrangers** · 07-28-12, 03:00 PM

I have SF at +100 is it still a play?

**knugen** · 07-29-12, 10:28 AM

Yes it is!

**Mr. Green** · 07-29-12, 10:44 AM

GL today!

**on3** · 07-29-12, 01:14 PM

(C) SF +100 to win 175

**J.M. Disciple** · 07-29-12, 09:44 PM

brutal sf series. Time for people make some individual capping skills on this system or only play filtered, 5/2.

Food for thought similar to JM NBA system where we talked about labbying all the A bets and playing 7/5 on B/C might work well with this system, but only labby A bets for filtered.

**on3** · 07-30-12, 11:29 AM

UPDATED for 07/30/2012
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 114-12-0; Profit: -25.5 units
Filtered System: 41-2-0; Profit: +21 units
5/2 chase: 17-2-0; profit: +22 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 72-56; 25-17
Game 2 (B) win = 32-22; 11-9; 11-7
Game 3 (C) win = 10-12; 5-2; 5-2

RESHUFFLED LABBY LINES FOR 07/30/2012
74-70-67-74
62-61-71-75
x-103-170-x

New Line Filtered
70-70-76-x
70-70-70-x

REGULAR FOR 07/30/2012
(A) NYY -170 to win 74
(A) SF -180 to win 70
(A) MIL -170 to win 67 (becomes filtered if o/u hits 9)
(A) CIN -145 to win 74 (becomes filtered if o/u hits 9)

*ATL and TEX no play, opened under -145

Filtered
NYY to win 76

5/2
none

**on3** · 07-30-12, 11:32 AM

Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

brutal sf series. Time for people make some individual capping skills on this system or only play filtered, 5/2.

Food for thought similar to JM NBA system where we talked about labbying all the A bets and playing 7/5 on B/C might work well with this system, but only labby A bets for filtered.

whatever the case is, every time I post I feel like I'm taking sheep to slaughter. system is no bueno this year. not the results we wanted.

**bulichm** · 07-30-12, 12:49 PM

Looks like we are in for a nice start for the week.

**darkmatter117** · 07-30-12, 05:18 PM

Using Pinnacle closing lines, the only teams that have generated a profit since the 2005 season when favored by -145 or more at home were the Rays, Brewers, Yankees, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Giants, Astros and Red Sox (barely). The worst teams were the Cubs, Mets, Reds, Angels, Rockies, Nationals and Mariners. Note this is in all games when the home team is heavily favored, not specifically system plays. This doesn't help us much, but it does give some idea of which teams are actually good home favorites.

**CrazyCarl** · 07-31-12, 07:59 AM

I'm hoping this get tracked to the end and next year as well to see if it rebounds, and if nothing else 5/2 and/or filtered plays still seem pretty strong.

**CrazyCarl** · 07-31-12, 08:00 AM

Originally posted by CrazyCarl

I'm hoping this get tracked to the end and next year as well to see if it rebounds, and if nothing else 5/2 and/or filtered plays still seem pretty strong.

Speaking of 5/2, NYY, right?