on3's MLB 2012 Opening Game system thread 194-8 last year +60 units

[on3]

congratulations on getting our 100th victory.

UPDATED for 07/17/2012
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 100-9-0; Profit: +8 units
Filtered System: 38-1-0; Profit: +31 units
5/2 chase: 15-1-0; profit: +33.5 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 62-49; 23-15
Game 2 (B) win = 31-16; 10-6; 10-6
Game 3 (C) win = 7-9; 5-1; 5-1

LABBY LINES FOR 07/17/2012
x-25-25-x
30-25-25-25
31-15-40-24

New Line Filtered
x-x-x-65

REGULAR FOR 07/17/2012
(A) ATL -150 to win 50

Filtered
ATL to win 65 (only if line stays at 9 or higher, wait until game time to place filtered bet)

5/2
none

[on3]

ATL looks like it WILL NOT be a filtered play. The line is hovering -145. So wait until close to game time to place your bet. If it falls below -140, it is not a play.

[parlay100]

No worries -- it's not easy to find in 2,200+ posts. It's post 790. I believe it's on page 23.

thank you got to page 20 and ejected.

[on3]

I'm going to the dodgers game tonight, will be playing phillies -.5 1st 5. Any Angelenos in here?

[J.M. Disciple]

I'm going to the dodgers game tonight, will be playing phillies -.5 1st 5. Any Angelenos in here?

I predict boring game LOL

Taking oakland reverse RL -1.5 at +200. better pitcher, better offense as of late, defense so so... Great value.

[on3]

UPDATED for 07/18/2012
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 100-9-0; Profit: +4.25 units
Filtered System: 38-1-0; Profit: +31 units
5/2 chase: 15-1-0; profit: +33.5 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 62-50; 23-15
Game 2 (B) win = 31-16; 10-6; 10-6
Game 3 (C) win = 7-9; 5-1; 5-1

LABBY LINES FOR 07/18/2012
x-25-62-x
30-25-25-63
31-15-40-24

New Line Filtered
x-x-x-65

REGULAR FOR 07/18/2012
(B) ATL -117 to win 88

Filtered
none

5/2
none

[lightent]

Thanks for the post! Let's chase the 2nd game. Tough match-up, though.

[J.M. Disciple]

Edit... Im a retard LOL

[alexknyc]

On3 Shouldn't Atl be to clear 2 #s off 2nd line instead of line 1?

The 2 numbers on line 1 add to 87, the last two numbers on line 2 add to 88. I think those on line 2 are the numbers he's using.

[on3]

The 2 numbers on line 1 add to 87, the last two numbers on line 2 add to 88. I think those on line 2 are the numbers he's using.

63+25 = 88

[on3]

UPDATED for 07/19/2012
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 100-9-0; Profit: -.75 units
Filtered System: 38-1-0; Profit: +31 units
5/2 chase: 15-1-0; profit: +33.5 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 62-50; 23-15
Game 2 (B) win = 31-17; 10-6; 10-6
Game 3 (C) win = 7-9; 5-1; 5-1

LABBY LINES FOR 07/19/2012
x-25-62-x
30-25-75-63
31-15-40-74

New Line Filtered
x-x-x-65

REGULAR FOR 07/19/2012
(B) ATL -114 to win 114

Filtered
none

5/2
none

[knugen]

Atl today should be C bet, right?

Thx for great work ON3

[J.M. Disciple]

Atl today should be C bet, right?

Thx for great work ON3

yes

[knugen]

Aahhh braves, hold on for 2 more innongs

[lapi7]

Aahhh braves, hold on for 2 more innongs

Good job.

[MrMannix]

Get ready for a busy few days coming up!
Good luck this weekend, boys!

[Bradfordmiller]

I count 8 games and another borderline for Friday. This could be a make or break weekend. Cant wait.
Thanks for all your work On3/J.M.D, much appreciated.

[knugen]

Get out of here

[on3]

delete

[on3]

UPDATED for 07/20/2012
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 101-9-0; Profit: +5
Filtered System: 38-1-0; Profit: +31 units
5/2 chase: 15-1-0; profit: +33.5 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 62-50; 23-15
Game 2 (B) win = 31-17; 10-6; 10-6
Game 3 (C) win = 8-9; 5-1; 5-1

LABBY LINES FOR 07/20/2012
37-37-36-37
35-30-35-33
31-15-x-x

New Line Filtered
20-20-20-35

REGULAR FOR 07/20/2012 (line must close above -140 to be a play)
(A) ARI -177 to win 37
(A) DET -168 to win 37
(A) TB -180 to win 36
(A) BOS -180 to win 37
(A) WAS -148 to win 35
(A) STL -147 to win 30
(A) NYM -150 to win 35
(A) LAA -143 to win 33

Filtered (o/u must close at 9 or higher to be a play)
BOS to win 35
ARI to win 20

5/2
none

[jcygts6]

Chica chica boom boom

[eric14tsui]

Make it a good Friday!

[lapi7]

Are we not forgetting KC as a filtered play?

As of 3:00 EST they are -146 and the O/U is 10 at Covers.com.

Just wondering.

[alexknyc]

Are we not forgetting KC as a filtered play?

As of 3:00 EST they are -146 and the O/U is 10 at Covers.com.

Just wondering.

What did they open at?

[CrazyCarl]

Are we not forgetting KC as a filtered play?

As of 3:00 EST they are -146 and the O/U is 10 at Covers.com.

Just wondering.

I'm imagining that they weren't posted at first because they opened at -133 or so.

Also, there is this:

"After the all-star break, teams must meet either the overall .500 record test or the home record over .500 test."

I'm sure on3 will add them well before gametime if he feels like they are worth playing, otherwise you could make your own call. Other than the .500 test and opening in the 130's, it looks like you are correct.

Not sure whether this would still qualify them for a 5/2 play or not.

[darkmatter117]

I thought I debunked the home winning percentage theory. I can apply it to the second half of the season only and see how that affects the results.

For 5/2, all that matters is the closing number.

[lapi7]

Thanks CrazyCarl and darkmatter for the clairification on the KC game.

That helps me understand why they are not on our "play" roster.

Just curious for future reference...putting aside the .500 portion of the rules for a moment, just WHO determines the "Opening Line" ? Because KC opened at anywhere from -150 to -145 to -135 at online sites all over the place. ALL Vegas lines were over -140. Do we go strictly by 5Dimes official "opening Line" ?

And is the .500 "overall average" or "at home" average rule in effect during the 2nd half or not ?

Thanks in advance for any help.

[J.M. Disciple]

LAA maybe no play -140 right now.

[knugen]

Hhmm im already on angels! They will take one

[on3]

KC opened under -145. no play for the system. if they lose, they will be a 5/2 play.

[CrazyCarl]

KC opened under -145. no play for the system. if they lose, they will be a 5/2 play.

Are you disregarding the .500 rule then?

Also, I wasn't sure because sometimes when teams cross over the 145 line (either way) you will make them plays or take them off the list depending on the situation.

[knugen]

We are berting G1 on nats and G2 if G1 loss, right?

[on3]

UPDATED for 07/21/2012
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 106-9-0; Profit: +5.25
Filtered System: 39-1-0; Profit: +29 units
5/2 chase: 15-1-0; profit: +33.5 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 67-53; 24-16
Game 2 (B) win = 31-17; 10-6; 10-6
Game 3 (C) win = 8-9; 5-1; 5-1

RESHUFFLED LABBY LINES FOR 07/21/2012
x-x-30-30
72-71-x-73
31-15-x-x

New Line Filtered
20-20-20-78

REGULAR FOR 07/21/2012
(B) BOS -128 to win 73
(B) WAS -117 to win 72 (will go to (C) bet if (B) loses)
(b) NYM +112 to win 71

Filtered
BOS to win 78

5/2
BOS to win 100
KC to win 100

[on3]

Are you disregarding the .500 rule then?

Also, I wasn't sure because sometimes when teams cross over the 145 line (either way) you will make them plays or take them off the list depending on the situation.

well, first rule is the -145. if it doesnt meet the first requirement, i dont even look at the records. but even if this did qualify under rule 1, the .500 filter would have made it a no play anyway. KC is a 5/2 play though since those filters dont apply to 5/2 per thelimit.

[J.M. Disciple]

Tomorrow Washington is a double header, are we doing C-bet tomorrow if B loses? Just a heads up incase someone places their B bet on the 7pm game instead of the 1pm game.

*sorry on3 didn't see your post before I posted this.