on3's MLB 2012 Opening Game system thread 194-8 last year +60 units

**knugen** · 07-23-12, 08:35 AM

Wallco, do u play this system?

**Wallco99** · 07-23-12, 09:29 AM

Originally posted by knugen

Wallco, do u play this system?

I was until yesterday, now I don't know what I will do. Need to find a different angle on it, this one isn't working. Might give the 5/2 a shot or try betting these games at -1.5, so the +money wins will quicker offset the losses, especially since there will be more losses at -1.5 runs.

**jturn49** · 07-23-12, 11:01 AM

Brutal weekend.

**on3** · 07-23-12, 02:19 PM

UPDATED for 07/23/2012
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 107-11-0; Profit: -21.25 units
Filtered System: 39-2-0; Profit: +17.5 units
5/2 chase: 16-2-0; profit: +17 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 67-53; 24-16
Game 2 (B) win = 31-20; 10-9; 11-7
Game 3 (C) win = 9-11; 5-2; 5-2

RESHUFFLED LABBY LINES FOR 07/23/2012
48-50-64-53-53
62-61-x-61
102-86-115-114

New Line Filtered
50-50-50-58
70-70-70-78

REGULAR FOR 07/23/2012
(A) PIT -145 to win 53
(A) ARZ -220/-110 to win 53 -- bet RL
(A) SF -150 to win 50
(A) LAA -200/+100 to win 64 -- bet RL
(A) CLE -150 to win 48

Filtered
CLE to win 50

5/2
none

**knugen** · 07-23-12, 05:08 PM

Why arent phillie a play?

**Wallco99** · 07-23-12, 05:14 PM

Originally posted by on3

UPDATED for 07/23/2012
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 107-11-0; Profit: -21.25 units
Filtered System: 39-2-0; Profit: +17.5 units
5/2 chase: 16-2-0; profit: +17 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 67-53; 24-16
Game 2 (B) win = 31-20; 10-9; 11-7
Game 3 (C) win = 9-11; 5-2; 5-2

RESHUFFLED LABBY LINES FOR 07/23/2012
48-50-64-53-53
62-61-x-61
102-86-115-114

New Line Filtered
50-50-50-58
70-70-70-78

REGULAR FOR 07/23/2012
(A) PIT -145 to win 53
(A) ARZ -220/-110 to win 53 -- bet RL
(A) SF -150 to win 50
(A) LAA -200/+100 to win 64 -- bet RL
(A) CLE -150 to win 48

Filtered
CLE to win 50

5/2
none

Why not Phillies, like you initially had? -200 favorite not high enough? They opened at -200 and are still at -200.

**knugen** · 07-23-12, 05:19 PM

Both PIT and PHI should be plays, right?

**on3** · 07-23-12, 05:28 PM

PHI is below .500 overall and below .500 at home.

**laplap** · 07-23-12, 05:37 PM

I think Cle is also on their last game of a 4 game series then should not be a play. Right?

**Wallco99** · 07-23-12, 06:08 PM

Originally posted by laplap

I think Cle is also on their last game of a 4 game series then should not be a play. Right?

You appear to be correct. What a major blunder that is for those who already bet the game. Fortunately I made my own spreadsheet for the plays, hope most people caught that one.

**Wallco99** · 07-23-12, 06:11 PM

Originally posted by on3

PHI is below .500 overall and below .500 at home.

I thought one of the posters already deemed that filter ineffective.

**J.M. Disciple** · 07-23-12, 11:22 PM

I am pretty sure you are right wallco.

**lennytia** · 07-24-12, 12:10 AM

Originally posted by Wallco99

You appear to be correct. What a major blunder that is for those who already bet the game. Fortunately I made my own spreadsheet for the plays, hope most people caught that one.

hardly

No harm done

**stevex** · 07-24-12, 12:18 AM

Looking like a good night fellas.

Perfect example of why you stick with a system.

**on3** · 07-24-12, 12:30 AM

Originally posted by Wallco99

You appear to be correct. What a major blunder that is for those who already bet the game. Fortunately I made my own spreadsheet for the plays, hope most people caught that one.

I apologize for posting CLE as a play. I was sloppy and need to proofread properly before hitting post. Fortunately, this mistake didn't cost anyone, but I do apologize for my sloppiness.

**Mrscofield25** · 07-24-12, 05:43 AM

Should Arizona not have been a filtered play yesterday?

**Wallco99** · 07-24-12, 09:22 AM

Originally posted by on3

I apologize for posting CLE as a play. I was sloppy and need to proofread properly before hitting post. Fortunately, this mistake didn't cost anyone, but I do apologize for my sloppiness.

As the other guy said, no harm done, actually a bonus unit for some.

**Wallco99** · 07-24-12, 12:24 PM

Originally posted by stevex

Looking like a good night fellas.

Perfect example of why you stick with a system.

Steve, are you playing JM as well?

**on3** · 07-24-12, 01:30 PM

UPDATED for 07/24/2012
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 110-11-0; Profit: -16.75 units
Filtered System: 39-2-0; Profit: +17.5 units
5/2 chase: 16-2-0; profit: +17 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 70-54; 24-16
Game 2 (B) win = 31-20; 10-9; 11-7
Game 3 (C) win = 9-11; 5-2; 5-2

RESHUFFLED LABBY LINES FOR 07/24/2012
48-x-38-53
62-61-38-61
102-86-115-114

New Line Filtered
50-50-50-58
70-70-70-78

REGULAR FOR 07/24/2012
(B) PIT -175 to win 99

Filtered
none

5/2
none

**J.M. Disciple** · 07-24-12, 03:45 PM

I hope we get some more filtered plays. The profit is going to look real nice when the end of the season comes and this labby line is cleared for it.

**J.M. Disciple** · 07-24-12, 03:47 PM

I am still a little confused... Anyone know the post # talking about the .500 filtered? I know the overall .500 filter if I remember correct darkmatter and others said this filtered was not well thought out, so we were not going to apply it. I am not sure if I seen anything about the under .500 filtered based on home team.

sorry On3, but kinda looks like you just threw it in there as an experiment. I could be badly mistaken though.

**on3** · 07-24-12, 05:43 PM

only filter that i am using for the 2h, is the under .500 record (overall or home). i know that darkmatter ran a backtest, but it was a backtest for FULL seasons and correct me if i am wrong, it was not done strictly for 2nd half of the season. last year the .500 filter saved us 2 (maybe 3 losses), i have to go through the thread to see.

**stevex** · 07-24-12, 05:51 PM

Wallco.

Decided not to add JM MLB in my arsenal of systems this year.

Went with 3 systems and have stuck with them since day 1...

System Integrity
on3
ShutOut System

Will ride all 3 out until the end.

**Wallco99** · 07-24-12, 05:54 PM

Originally posted by stevex

Wallco.

Decided not to add JM MLB in my arsenal of systems this year.

Went with 3 systems and have stuck with them since day 1...

System Integrity
on3
ShutOut System

Will ride all 3 out until the end.

Good luck. How are those other 2 doing for you?

**stevex** · 07-24-12, 08:13 PM

ShutOut System is having a pretty bad year so far. Integrity is pretty much up and down, around the same units as on3's

**lapi7** · 07-24-12, 08:17 PM

AMAZING !!!

Pittsburgh has scored only 2 runs in 18 innings and is going to lose to the lowly Cubs again at home???

I'm living on the wrong planet !!!

**Wallco99** · 07-24-12, 09:43 PM

Originally posted by stevex

ShutOut System is having a pretty bad year so far. Integrity is pretty much up and down, around the same units as on3's

This has been an all around crap season.

**Wallco99** · 07-24-12, 09:44 PM

Originally posted by lapi7

AMAZING !!!

Pittsburgh has scored only 2 runs in 18 innings and is going to lose to the lowly Cubs again at home???

I'm living on the wrong planet !!!

Not to rub salt in our wound, but they've only scored one run in that span.

**stevex** · 07-24-12, 10:14 PM

Wallco I agree. Definetly a weird year, but in my opinion things will turn around at some point. Some years is just takes longers than others....

**Wallco99** · 07-24-12, 10:32 PM

Originally posted by stevex

Wallco I agree. Definetly a weird year, but in my opinion things will turn around at some point. Some years is just takes longers than others....

That's what I'm banking on. Just hope it's sooner than later.

**darkmatter117** · 07-24-12, 10:56 PM

Originally posted by on3

only filter that i am using for the 2h, is the under .500 record (overall or home). i know that darkmatter ran a backtest, but it was a backtest for FULL seasons and correct me if i am wrong, it was not done strictly for 2nd half of the season. last year the .500 filter saved us 2 (maybe 3 losses), i have to go through the thread to see.

I'll have the backtested numbers tomorrow or Thursday.

**hagball52** · 07-24-12, 11:17 PM

Originally posted by Wallco99

This has been an all around crap season.

Yeah every time I take a step forward I take 2 steps back. It's been an awful year for me. I've been staying with Morrison's system lately and doing some situational betting and that's starting to pay off. Hopefully we can end the season on a high note.

**on3** · 07-25-12, 01:12 AM

UPDATED for 07/25/2012
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 110-11-0; Profit: -23.5 units
Filtered System: 39-2-0; Profit: +17.5 units
5/2 chase: 16-2-0; profit: +17 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 70-54; 24-16
Game 2 (B) win = 31-21; 10-9; 11-7
Game 3 (C) win = 9-11; 5-2; 5-2

RESHUFFLED LABBY LINES FOR 07/25/2012
68-60-78-73
62-61-98-88
82-103-95-84

New Line Filtered
50-50-50-58
70-70-70-78

REGULAR FOR 07/25/2012
(C) PIT -120 to win 166

Filtered
none

5/2
none

**hagball52** · 07-25-12, 09:02 AM

Just a heads up for everyone. The Cubs pitcher (Dempster) is involved in trade rumors so there is a possibility that he may be a late scratch. It would affect your ticket if you play it listed. FYI
GL

**knugen** · 07-25-12, 11:13 AM

no pitcher change yet, right?