on3's MLB 2012 Opening Game system thread 194-8 last year +60 units

[okbyme123]

What's up JMD. I'm back home. I can start back running the thread from the 22nd. Thank you for keeping this thing moving along.

Thank you JMD!

[chound]

Just imagine if you were smart and split your C line into A and B line like I suggested.....not only would you be out of the red but well into the black....all it takes is one C loss for you guys to go down double digit units again.

Just trying to help...

allidoiswin89,

Your right and I agree with you. I see we're both thinking in the same direction. My suggestion was on the safer side and if they win a few series on the first bet then they'd be able to split the C line with A, all in the meantime of recouping losses and picking up a few extra units along the way...If they leave them like they are two 6 unit losses (4 units trying to win plus juice) on the first bet will be right back where they were 7 chases ago without playing a 2nd game on those. Up over 30 units between the 3 systems, WHY RUSH?

[J.M. Disciple]

Agree with split a number from line C and moving it to line A and also a number from C and adding it to B. I disagree with Adding $10 more to each number because that only inflates the numbers more. Yes it will increase our profits if we do not hit a downswing, but also increases the variance if we lose.

You stated with the current numbers would only take 1 loss to be back down 30 units, so why make it 35-40 units by inflating the numbers? It has been said many times over in this thread its not a sprint. Clearing the numbers we have currently will put us well into the black, so inflating the numbers to win 3.5 extra units is some thing I disagree with.

Kenny will be back around maybe towards season end when we have a loss.

Everyone is Welcome and thanks for the points. All suggestions from this point forward is at On3's discretion; I was merely a substitute teacher for a week or so.

There was one other comment didn't quite understand about my unit max? I have a small unit size ranging from $10-$20 given that majority of us lost 50% of our rolls following systems in the beginning of this season.

Lets continue our good run this weekend.

[J.M. Disciple]

Just imagine if you were smart and split your C line into A and B line like I suggested.....not only would you be out of the red but well into the black....all it takes is one C loss for you guys to go down double digit units again.

Just trying to help...


This comment had we lost we would be so far into the red would not even be funny. Majority of people have a hard time handling the numbers as they are. We were constantly betting 3-5 units on the series we won recently so to add Line C over Line A and B would of increased our wagers from 3-5units to 5-10 units. And drastically increased them if we did not get those 3 sweeps. Sorry but I strongly disagree with compounding our numbers like that. I only divide line C into line A or B once we have cleared majority of the line.

[chound]

I disagree with Adding $10 more to each number because that only inflates the numbers more. Yes it will increase our profits if we do not hit a downswing, but also increases the variance if we lose.

You stated with the current numbers would only take 1 loss to be back down 30 units, so why make it 35-40 units by inflating the numbers? It has been said many times over in this thread its not a sprint. Clearing the numbers we have currently will put us well into the black, so inflating the numbers to win 3.5 extra units is some thing I disagree with.

Kenny will be back around maybe towards season end when we have a loss.

Everyone is Welcome and thanks for the points. All suggestions from this point forward is at On3's discretion; I was merely a substitute teacher for a week or so.

There was one other comment didn't quite understand about my unit max? I have a small unit size ranging from $10-$20 given that majority of us lost 50% of our rolls following systems in the beginning of this season.

Lets continue our good run this weekend.

I don't think you completely understood my post. The loss of 30+ units was if we kept the 1st bet at 4+ units. The reason I added $10 was to simply raise the stakes slightly. You're last 2 A bets have been $59 and $48, even adding $10 to each set of numbers the way I split them only increased it to $38 which isn't even 2 units, basically the same as 1 or 2 A bet losses.

In general I do like your labby strategy so no I'm not trying to be sarcastic in any way and thanks for keeping this going in on3's absence.

[eric14tsui]

Thanks JMD.

[allidoiswin89]

Just imagine if you were smart and split your C line into A and B line like I suggested.....not only would you be out of the red but well into the black....all it takes is one C loss for you guys to go down double digit units again.

Just trying to help...


This comment had we lost we would be so far into the red would not even be funny. Majority of people have a hard time handling the numbers as they are. We were constantly betting 3-5 units on the series we won recently so to add Line C over Line A and B would of increased our wagers from 3-5units to 5-10 units. And drastically increased them if we did not get those 3 sweeps. Sorry but I strongly disagree with compounding our numbers like that. I only divide line C into line A or B once we have cleared majority of the line.

Sigh....it is simple math. I am done trying to explain. People are more worried about yahoos screaming than making this the most profitable. Your main argument is if we lost.....if we lost it would have been pushed thru to a b or c bet....there is a winning % on a and b bets.....if you lose now with a c bet, you are screwed even more as there are less c bets over the year which gives you less of a chance to clear monster negative numbers.... have been running my lab by like this and I am 20 more units positive.....it is called money mgmt for those people who can't wager more than 3-5 units

[J.M. Disciple]

sorry I could not understand your labby allidoiswin89 I understood what chound did I just wouldn't add any additional units after averaging. Averaging out two of the C #s over Line B and Line A is fine.

I am not going to start an argument over this. It is out of my hands and up to On3 to decide by tomorrow what he wants to do with the numbers. From what has been said so far I think Chound has best advice. Just slowly continue to clear Line A and continue to move up #s from the C line until all lines are cleared.

[J.M. Disciple]

X - X - X - x- x
x - x - 88.23 - x
85.91 - 85.91 - 85.91 - 85.91 - 108.25 - 113.40

These are the current lines.

Total $ in play $653.52 + Juice
32.68 units

Currently down 8.90 units so we will be roughly 24 units in the black once we clear these lines. Shouldn't take too much longer. Favorites tend to win majority of the time in June and JULY.

Lets keep the energy in this thread positive as it has been this week. We were all doing a great job of not cluttering the thread or arguing over this winning stretch so lets keep it that way over the season.

For those looking to suggest other labby ways maybe provide example as Chound did in his post or PM it to ON3.

Thanks everyone for letting me run the thread for a while and the side efforts from wallco, chound, and allidoiswin is much appreciated. I didn't know all the rules to the system, so thank you for your efforts in keeping the plays consistent with the rules of the thread.

GREAT JOB EVERYONE
Lets make some more

[MrMannix]

Looking like 4 plays for tomorrow- Arizona, Cincinnati, Boston & Texas. Too early to see if any are filtered yet.
GLTA
Early lines have them all as filtered plays!
Arizona looks iffy. Gonna wait for the official call.

[eric14tsui]

a busy day, waiting for the call.

[on3]

4 plays today: Arizona, Cin, Bos, Tex. Cin, Bos, Tex filtered for sure, Ari still on the fence. Will do a full update in a little bit.

[J.M. Disciple]

Now that NBA is over got a full focus on MLB again. Sucks Lebron got his ring, but at least it made me 7 units Idk why public faded a team that is up 3-1 in the series when in nba history no team has come back from it. Thought it was an easy chase to make.

All the plays look great today!!!! Good luck! One team below .500 but opponent is way below .500 so not too much to worry about there.

Good LUCK!

[nato3713]

Maybe this is a dumb question but im just jumping in and been doing alot of reading but how do you know what to bet using the labby system when multiple series bets go off at the same time, or at least before you know if they are a winner or loser?

[bigvern]

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Now 'Magyar' I've already spoken to you about this - be gone irritating tout

[on3]

UPDATED for 06/22/2012
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 73-8-0; Profit: -8.90
Filtered System: 22-0-0; Profit: +19.50
5/2 chase: 5-0-0; profit: +19 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 48-38; 13-7
Game 2 (B) win = 24-12; 5-2; 3-2
Game 3 (C) win = 4-8; 2-0; 2-0

RESHUFFLED LABBY LINES FOR 6/22/2012
38-38-38-38
49-49-49-49
76-76-76-76

New Line Filtered
10 -10 - 10 -10

REGULAR FOR 06/22/2012
ARIZONA -155 to win 38
CINCY -189 to win 38
BOSTON -194 to win 38
TEXAS -194 to win 38

Filtered
ARIZONA to win 20
CINCY to win 20
BOSTON to win 20
TEXAS to win 20

[on3]

hey JMD, not sure when the filtered units became skewed, but since there arent any leftover units on the filtered line, 22 wins should = +22 units. if no one objects, im going to make the correction on the next post.

[darrendice]

Now 'Magyar' I've already spoken to you about this - be gone irritating tout[/QUOTE]

But I was sold "at the all those who trust me will be rich". It must all be true. I particularly like the inappropriate use of the space bar.

[bigvern]

I particularly like the inappropriate use of the space bar.

Yes, he's evidently a literary genius as well as capping master ....

[MrMannix]

Are the LAA a play? Line opened late but looks like it opened at around -150.
GLTA

[J.M. Disciple]

hey JMD, not sure when the filtered units became skewed, but since there arent any leftover units on the filtered line, 22 wins should = +22 units. if no one objects, im going to make the correction on the next post.

Would have to go back through the post and find out. I know we had one bet where it was only to win $16 so I could see that being a small problem. With the labby 22 wins does not always equal 22 units. Similar to the regular system where we have 73 wins and 8 losses. After all the lines are cleared with current money in play we would not have 73 units in the black. I do not think the number of units in the black is skewed on the filter. I think if you were using martingale then yes you would be correct, but labby works a little differently.

[Mrscofield25]

Are the LAA a play? Line opened late but looks like it opened at around -150.
GLTA

Nope. LAA opened at -114 at 5D which makes them a no play.

[MrMannix]

Nope. LAA opened at -114 at 5D which makes them a no play.

Thanks- didn't see that. Sorry for cluttering the thread.
Thanks to J.M. for filling in and to On3 for a great thread!
GLTA

[abv]

How do you guys see the line movement for 5D? Haven't figured that one out yet so I've just been using scoresandodds, which had LAA opening at -155 - quite a huge difference from -114.

Regardless, the Bums are absolutely pathetic right now, scoring all of 2 runs against the A's the entire series. Being a Giants fan I saw most of the the SF/LAA series and the Angels are absolutely clicking right now. I just can't resist playing this series.

BTW, why aren't we playing RLs for the the 3 plays around -190? I thought anything above -180 should be RL.

[J.M. Disciple]

How do you guys see the line movement for 5D? Haven't figured that one out yet so I've just been using scoresandodds, which had LAA opening at -155 - quite a huge difference from -114.

Regardless, the Bums are absolutely pathetic right now, scoring all of 2 runs against the A's the entire series. Being a Giants fan I saw most of the the SF/LAA series and the Angels are absolutely clicking right now. I just can't resist playing this series.

BTW, why aren't we playing RLs for the the 3 plays around -190? I thought anything above -180 should be RL.

1) go to covers and when you view the scores look at "line movement."
2) I got all of my plays way below -190. If it opens at -190 then RL rule is applied.

*if you are running your own personal line then I would suggest taking -1 on the A bets only.

EDIT*** TEX should be a RL play. Not saying that because of the 4-0 lead right now but because I just went back and checked the odds.

[J.M. Disciple]

Nope. LAA opened at -114 at 5D which makes them a no play.

I see it opening at -155.

[J.M. Disciple]

I am sure ON3 will add this in later, but you all should definitely be on LAA tonight. Opened -155 @ 5 dimes I am not sure where everyone is getting there -114 from, but LAA opened -155 @ 5 dimes and line is now up to -165.

[MrMannix]

Thank you for clearing that up J.M. The late listing of the line because of the late listing of Haren seemed to mess up reading this line.
GLTA

[Wallco99]

I am sure ON3 will add this in later, but you all should definitely be on LAA tonight. Opened -155 @ 5 dimes I am not sure where everyone is getting there -114 from, but LAA opened -155 @ 5 dimes and line is now up to -165.

The line opened at -114, don't correct the guy who previously had it right.

5Dimes lines are below:

TIME

LA

LAA

06/22 10:01 PM	+153	-163
06/22 09:29 PM	+155	-165
06/22 09:27 PM	+154	-164
06/22 08:49 PM	+152	-162
06/22 08:46 PM	+157	-167
06/22 06:06 PM	+155	-165
06/22 02:53 PM	+156	-166
06/22 02:38 PM	+155	-165
06/22 12:41 PM	+156	-166
06/22 10:45 AM	+154	-164
06/22 10:12 AM	+145	-155
06/21 07:48 PM	+104	-114

[abv]

What is going on with Arizona? Saunders was listed up until close, yet Collmenter is pitching. Is the book going to wait to cancel the wager until later in the game or should I expect it any moment now? Or not at all? (I bet "Listed" not "Action" obviously)

Edit: Yup, there it goes. Anybody play Action?

[Wallco99]

What is going on with Arizona? Saunders was listed up until close, yet Collmenter is pitching. Is the book going to wait to cancel the wager until later in the game or should I expect it any moment now? Or not at all? (I bet "Listed" not "Action" obviously)

Edit: Yup, there it goes. Anybody play Action?

Yes, I always do.

[abv]

Yes, I always do.

It never concerns you that a pitching change might move the line well out of the qualifications of the system? I thought you liked to follow the rules to the letter.

[J.M. Disciple]

I guess Covers.com when they list "opening lines" for 5 dimes at -155 does not mean they are correct. I believe we discussed this in the past wallco where you said an opening line is an opening line and doesn't matter where you get the info from. I guess covers and sportsodds is not consistent with opening lines of different books.

[Hunner24]

I'm confused on that as well JMD. I saw the -114 earlier on covers.com, but now I just see -155 as the opening. Maybe the -114 they posted earlier today was a mistake? I obviously wish I would have played LAA now, haha.

[darkmatter117]

There's a real problem with using opening lines. SBR does show 5dimes' line opening at -114, but at Pinnacle -- which 5dimes essentially mirrors -- it opened at -155. A single, 41-cent jump is absurd. However, Pinnacle didn't open its line until 10:39 a.m. June 22; 5dimes' -114 showed up at 7:48 p.m. June 21, then jumped to -155 at 10:12 a.m. June 22.

Based on that data, I think the -114 line is accurate. Looking at some of the major books, the only other book that opened its line the day before the game, Heritage, opened at -113. The major books I looked at that opened their line on gameday all opened above -150. Was there uncertainty about the starting pitchers? There had to have been some significant factor that prevented most books from offering lines the day before the game and that led Heritage and 5dimes to make 44- and 41-cent jumps in a single move, respectively.