on3's MLB 2012 Opening Game system thread 194-8 last year +60 units

[chound]

In the past I said to start a new line if there were not enough numbers but i was convinced that on3 used #s from line B with the A bets.

On 3 has used #'s from line A and B in the past. What you have done that I feel in my own opinion is better is average the numbers out. Seems like when you have 3 or 4 different wagers the smallest ones win. This way every win is identical as well as the losses minus the juice.

[J.M. Disciple]

Chound the only part I disagree with you on is adding more #s to the line. We can always add more #s to reduce the wagers, but at 50% when you win and cross off a number and then still add a number reduce the old #s when you lose... Well line is never going to get cleared like that. My numbers are bigger because I did not add any new numbers to the line.

Maybe in the future instead of keeping 4 #s on the line we may add a 5th number. I asked this in the past, but I do not think i got a response on it, so i just kept it the same way on3 was running it.

On3's method is not really aggressive, it is actually pretty passive, it just seems aggressive when we go 2 and 10 over a couple days with high juice then have 8 plays in the same day. If it was 1 or 2 plays a day it would be much more easier to handle. I am not trying to change the way on3 runs his labby too much. He will be back in 6 or 7 days. Do not want to get people too accustomed to my variation since its only a short period of time.

One thing I thought of was on the A bets taking the (-1) line to reduce our juice. We would miss out on some series, but it would greatly help our odds when it goes to B or C.

This system could definitely use some improving. I know taking -1 on A-B-C is a bad idea, but if its only on the A bets, it should be just fine. I have personally been taking -1 on all the games with my personal labby.

[chound]

Chound the only part I disagree with you on is adding more #s to the line. We can always add more #s to reduce the wagers, but at 50% when you win and cross off a number and then still add a number reduce the old #s when you lose... Well line is never going to get cleared like that. My numbers are bigger because I did not add any new numbers to the line.

That's not true, it just takes a little longer to clear the line but it also helps to protect your BR. The reason people were jumping ship was because of this system being so aggresive and entire bankrolls being in jeopardy. I personally use 5 numbers on each line. if I get down to 2 or 3 numbers and they start getting high I'll add 2 or 3 numbers but will also add 10 to each to keep the profits continually coming if the line gets cleared. when you get down to 2 or 3 numbers and there 40, 50, 60 or 70 on the first and/or second game the win on the 3rd doesn't usually come close to covering the previous 2 losses due to the high juice. The only way this system will win long term with a few early season losses is to have alot of wins on the first game. The second and 3rd game kill you when you're 5-10 units in the hole and your trying to recoup the losses. We're almost even going into tonight and if we lose 4 or more tonight and 2+ tomorrow the bets will be astronomical again.

[chound]

I should have added 2.50 to each since I added 2 sets of numbers . my lines are different and I was trying to give an example . the 2.50 to the 8 set of numbers would be the same as adding 2 new numbers at 10 each since that's what I did

[Wallco99]

Cincinnati is also a filtered play (at the moment). Just thought I'd menton it since it will be official if it stays at 9, and line stays over -140.

[J.M. Disciple]

Cincinnati is also a filtered play (at the moment). Just thought I'd menton it since it will be official if it stays at 9, and line stays over -140.

what happened to the opening o/u 9? The other day when you said we would of had 7 plays based on how the lines moved up... wouldn't this be the same thing?

[chound]

You can use them as plays if there's a big movement

[J.M. Disciple]

ill see how it turns out today, then adjust and consider your strategy. I just do not want to differ too much from how on3 laid out his strategy.

[J.M. Disciple]

You can use them as plays if there's a big movement

Too much of a personal preference from on3. Just going to stick to basics for now and let on3 adjust the plays when he gets back. I am sure there will be complaints if I were to add a play in this late. Too many people would of missed the play.

[Wallco99]

what happened to the opening o/u 9? The other day when you said we would of had 7 plays based on how the lines moved up... wouldn't this be the same thing?

It was also stated that the filtered plays don't work that way. Provided they OPEN at -145, and remain above -140 by CLOSE, then the o/u only has to close at 9 or above, not OPEN at 9 or above. You are taking teams that would normally qualify for the regular version, and betting extra money on that team if they CLOSE at 9 runs or more.

[Wallco99]

Too much of a personal preference from on3. Just going to stick to basics for now and let on3 adjust the plays when he gets back. I am sure there will be complaints if I were to add a play in this late. Too many people would of missed the play.

I don't care if you add it or not, if it stays at 9 it's a play, simple as that.

[J.M. Disciple]

UPDATED for 06/12/2012
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 63-5-0; Profit: -2.5
Filtered System: 17-0-0; Profit: +13.2 units
5/2 chase: 4-0-0; profit: +14 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 37-32; 10-7
Game 2 (B) win = 22-9; 5-2; 2-2
Game 3 (C) win = 4-5; 2-0; 2-0

Date 06/12/2012

Final Labby Lines for 6/12/2012
X- X -65.72 – 65.72
65.72 – 65.72 - 65.72 – 65.72
X– 65.72 - 65.72- X

New Line Filtered
X - 66.17 - X - X

Regular
#69 tor (B) (-151) vs Washington. To win $65.72
# 70 Orioles (-154) vs Pirates To win $65.72
# 71 Rays (-151) vs Mets To win $65.72
# 72 Mariners (-166) vs Padres To win $65.72
# 73 Rangers (-173) vs D-Backs To win $65.72 o/u 10
# 74 Reds (-165) vs Indians To win $65.72
# 75 Cardinals (-145) vs White Sox To win $65.72
# 76 Giants (-160) vs Astros To win $65.72

Filtered
# 18 Rangers (-173) vs D-Backs To win $66.17 o/u 10
#19 Cinci (-165) to win $20

***added cinci as a filtered play for 1 unit***

[J.M. Disciple]

Hopefully cinci wins and there is not much of a discussion adding it 20min before game time.

[J.M. Disciple]

There was someone who tried to PM me but my inbox was full... please resend. If you all want to discuss how to run the labby further I would prefer to do it over PM or email so this thread does not get crowded like it did in the past. Please PM me and ill tell you my email.

[Wallco99]

Hopefully cinci wins and there is not much of a discussion adding it 20min before game time.

Do yourself a favor, don't worry so much about what other people think. They are supposed to be thinking for themselves if they are risking their own money. You are doing them a favor. If you happen to notice 2 minutes before game time that a play was missed or something, hell with popular opinion, post it in there. The criteria has been spelled out for everyone to use in on3's absence, if someone wants to not learn it, or blame you because they didn't get a chance to wager on a play that was posted late, then hell with them. Just remember, you are doing them a favor, if they don't like the way you do it tell them to go somewhere else. I am just pointing out plays that may have been overlooked, and since this is one of the most jumblef#cked threads on SBR, I think you are doing a pretty good job with what you've been left with, just don't be afraid to make changes after a so called "official post" has been put up.

[Wallco99]

Hopefully cinci wins and there is not much of a discussion adding it 20min before game time.

I wouldn't look at it that way, rather look at is as though this play was actually added 5 days ago (not 20 mins. before) when the criteria for this system was posted. Which means every person who logged on should have known how to figure out the plays for themselves, meaning you are only posting them in here so there is a record of all the plays in one place. I'll tell you how to handle the person who complains, post all the plays after the games are over, then they will have to figure it out for themselves. I mean there is really no reason the plays have to be posted before the game anyway, since all the info for people to figure it out for themselves is posted in this thread.

[juice050]

I wouldn't look at it that way, rather look at is as though this play was actually added 5 days ago (not 20 mins. before) when the criteria for this system was posted. Which means every person who logged on should have known how to figure out the plays for themselves, meaning you are only posting them in here so there is a record of all the plays in one place. I'll tell you how to handle the person who complains, post all the plays after the games are over, then they will have to figure it out for themselves. I mean there is really no reason the plays have to be posted before the game anyway, since all the info for people to figure it out for themselves is posted in this thread.

hey wallco are you going to play the final nba system on sunday with the thunder? should i load up? i usually do every year to go out with a bang.

[J.M. Disciple]

Thanks for the kind words Wallco; not being sarcastic either. I agree with you 100% when you lay it out like that.

[J.M. Disciple]

Regular
#69 tor (B) (-151) vs Washington. To win $65.72 Lose $99.24
# 70 Orioles (-154) vs Pirates To win $65.72
# 71 Rays (-151) vs Mets To win $65.72 Lose $99.24
# 72 Mariners (-166) vs Padres To win $65.72 Lose $109.10
# 73 Rangers (-173) vs D-Backs To win $65.72 o/u 10
# 74 Reds (-165) vs Indians To win $65.72
# 75 Cardinals (-145) vs White Sox To win $65.72..... Lose $95.30
# 76 Giants (-160) vs Astros To win $65.72

Filtered
# 18 Rangers (-173) vs D-Backs To win $66.17 o/u 10
#19 Cinci (-165) to win $20

Lost a couple units on the day. -$140 (-7u) in the regular system. +4.3u filtered.

[J.M. Disciple]

Timmy please resend your old message.... i was clearing out inbox / sent box and accidentally deleted what you sent me. Thank you for the reply on the dates.

[J.M. Disciple]

UPDATED for 06/13/2012
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 67-5-0; Profit: -9.5
Filtered System: 19-0-0; Profit: +17.5
5/2 chase: 4-0-0; profit: +14 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 41-35; 12-7
Game 2 (B) win = 22-10; 5-2; 2-2
Game 3 (C) win = 4-5; 2-0; 2-0

Date 06/13/2012

Final Labby Lines for 6/13/2012
50.60 - 50.60 - 50.60 - X
83.22 - 83.22 - 83.22 - 83.22
60.35 - 60.35 - 60.35 - X

New Line Filtered
10-10 - 10 - 10

Regular for 6/13/2012
#69 tor (C) vs Washington. To win 60.35
# 71 Rays (B) vs Mets To win $83.22
# 72 Mariners (B) vs Padres To win $83.22
# 75 Cardinals (B) vs White Sox To win $83.22

Filtered
no plays

*after dividing the losses from the A bets over Line A and B and the B loss over B and C these are the numbers I came up with. I crossed off 2 #s from A and 2 #s from B. It really seems like the numbers keep growing slowly and we need a really good day to clear the lines.

I actually hope someone checks my labby on this... we Had 4 losses and 4 wins. Going from 8 #s to 10 #s... I really think we should still have 8 #s on the lines, but would make the wagers a bit bigger. In terms of cross 1 and add 1 we should still have 8 #s so I think i made a small mistake, but it does keep the numbers some what low.

Unless someone post some better #s I am going to leave it as it is. I am always open to suggestions. I think my mistake was when I split the loss over line A and line B I did not keep the same amount of numbers on the line.

[knugen]

We dont play RL on blue jays right?

[Nino7]

where do u find the calendar in order to find when a serie of 3 games start?Do you have to check it team by team?
thx

[TripleDDD]

edit: nvm

[Lakey]

where do u find the calendar in order to find when a serie of 3 games start?Do you have to check it team by team?
thx

An excel document was posted towards the start of the thread.

[Nino7]

ok thx

[Bostongambler]

gl guys

[knugen]

Dont forget that toronto begin in 15 min

[analyzer]

Thanks JMD!

[J.M. Disciple]

page 3 has the excel / word file.

[knugen]

doesnt look good

[timmyboy34243]

im'd you the info earlier today....

Timmy please resend your old message.... i was clearing out inbox / sent box and accidentally deleted what you sent me. Thank you for the reply on the dates.

[J.M. Disciple]

what do you all think about the 3 remaining plays? I am happy that the C bet was less then the B bets for you all (saying it after the fact of course). Hopefully still can have a winning day. TB rays are a little sketchy, but I like STL and SEA today.

Also I know i stated this in the past, but for future reference i really suggest taking all A bets are -1RL to keep the odds and labby to a minimum. We will end up winning about 45% of our A bets and push about 15%. If A bet is a push just move on and dont worry about that series and count it as a win even though It did not make you any money.

If i was running this thread from season start this would be how I would run it, but on'3s and Rizz's rules so up to them if they want to do this rest of the season.

Good luck on remaining 3 games.

[J.M. Disciple]

4/24 Tigers v Mariners, above .500

5/1 Giants v Marlins, above .500

5/4 Red Sox v Orioles, sub .500

5/7 Phillies v Mets, sub. 500

5/25 Braves v Nationals. above .500

Looking at our series losses and a way to filter it. We can wipe out two losses based on a under / over .500 filter. We could wipe out another one based on their opponent be above .500 as well. Applying the filter of their opponent above .500 would wipe out a lot of wins as well. I think system would still be in black though... A bit of a hassle to go back and test this stuff.

[J.M. Disciple]

I found this link for the cisco system... I am not sure if its the same thing ive been talking about. Home favorite system vs teams under .470? Not too sure how the system works.