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Comment -
LAA is a B bet.
Boston, Detroit and Washington are official plays.
Boston, Detroit are also filtered plays.
Cincinnati and Milwaukee opened a few cents below -145 but are now over. Chances are on3 would grade those as plays as well.Comment -
Thats great. "Boston, Detroit and Washington are official plays."
Notice I didnt include Cin/Mil in that sentence. And if I recall correctly on3 stated he's used 5dimes to determine some opening lines in the past, which would indeed make Mil official. Cin opened at -150 at Bookmaker so whos to say.
Itching to post the official write-up yourself are we?
Comment -
I am leaving it as I posted it. If you lost 1 unit on LAA because they opened above -145 but dropped below -145 then just distribute that loss over your A and B line and make it back today. There are 4 plays today so take your loss from LAA and add it "to win" total of todays bets.
"WE" are betting to win $48 I believe on 4 games today so divide LAA loss by 4 and say you lost $50 add a extra $11 or whatever it is to the 4 games today.Comment -
Not at all, just want to see it correct, and with 5 guys doing it, it never will be.Thats great. "Boston, Detroit and Washington are official plays."
Notice I didnt include Cin/Mil in that sentence. And if I recall correctly on3 stated he's used 5dimes to determine some opening lines in the past, which would indeed make Mil official. Cin opened at -150 at Bookmaker so whos to say.
Itching to post the official write-up yourself are we?Comment -
Also want to note my lines are totally different then On3's I am just trying to help him out while he is gone. If I make a mistake please chirp in and feel free to correct me. I believe the reshuffle and averaging out A / B over 8 #s was a good play for this system as agreed upon by many in this thread.
Going to leave it as it is and if you do not like it then, just continue to run your own lines. Either way it will turn a profit by the time On3 comes back.
Good Luck to ALL
JMD
PS
Favorites usually do pretty well in June. IF we clear lines A and B over next couple of days,
Do you all think we should start reshuffling line C up to A and B? Average out line C over 12 #s once A / B are cleared?
It would reduce the profits of this system some, but keep the bet size relatively low and still put the system in the black.Comment -
Wallco, i value your opinion highly on what plays should actually count. It may be too late now to correct it, but do you think I listed the plays as they should be? We can agree to disagree on the bet amounts, but as long as the plays are correct via the system GUIDELINES.Comment -
Would you mind listing the four plays and $ amounts for clarity and for the record?
Thank you.Comment -
JMD:
FILTERED
Detroit -147
Boston -148
Regular
Detroit -147
Boston -148
Washington -148
Milwaukee -152
And for those who played LAA yesterday, they will have a B bet on them today.
This is how I would do it today. CIN is NO PLAY. They opened at -142. Odds are based on 5dimes opening odds.Comment -
Honestly my man, you can list them however you wish, just be the only one to do it and be CONSISTENET. Since we are not mindreaders of the way on3 plays and disqualifies certain series, I say, until he gets back, just play the system the exact way it was designed, that way there is no confusion and no personal opinion involved. Then when he gets back, he can run it the way it was before, with his added personal criteria, which whether we want to believe it or not, we don't fully understand. The official criteria as far as I know are as follows:
1. Team must be on at least a three game home series.
2. The team must OPEN at -145 or greater.
3. Once a team opens at -145 or greater, to still be a play, it must remain above -140 at close. (It can drop below that at some point during the day, but by close must be back up to at least -140.
4. If a team opens below -145, and creeps up above -145, this is not an official play.
5. The filtered plays must be at o/u 9 or greater by CLOSE, and must have OPENED at -145 or greater. (If a team has an o/u of 9.5, opened at -142, and crept up to -145, this is not a play because team didn't qualify at -145.
That's basically it. I read through extensive pages of Rizz's thread to get this info, I believe I have it right. If not, maybe Rizz could clarify. I know that on3 plays some games that go up from -140 to -150, and disqualifies some games that drop from -170 to -150. But since this is not in the rules, and we don't know his criteria for running his system his way, we shouldn't even F around with the handicapping aspect and just stick to the few rules that are actually posted.
As far as the labby, run it however you see fit, that is your call since you are doing all the work. This may be the time when the individual player actually has to learn how to run his/her own labby anyway. What you post should only be a guide line for the followers, and not necessarily the "10 commandments" of labby wagering.
I am by no means trying to take over this thread, but instead of sitting on here arguing all day yesterday, I actually spent time reading the entire thread of this system's creator, trying to get some answers to try to help us all in on3's absence. My comments about everyone and their mother posting plays was made because I know how cluttered and out of control other threads have gotten when too many people try to "help". I am absolutely not trying to offend anyone or come off as a know it all, but a lot of us were just following along in here and now the time has come that we need to better understand what we should be wagering on. With a little bit of organization and consistency, this should run very smooth until he gets back. Unless asked, I will not post any more comments on what I think the plays should be, based on official rules. Thanks everyone, and good luck. LAA should have been a play yesterday because they opened at -145, and despite being at -135 for a portion of the day, they did close above -140 (they were at -150).Last edited by Wallco99; 06-05-12, 06:06 PM.Comment -
Yes, I just noticed it. Thanks. And interesting reading as always. I hope you soon will start to post your new baseball system, if it will be actual. Hey by the way Wallco. I did send you a pm one and a half month ago but you never answered it. I just assume you didn't want to answer.
GL all.Comment -
I work through out the day, so I will not be able to pay attention to closing lines of the game. If anyone has a problem with it, starting tomorrow I will only be listing plays that open at -145 or higher. Today because most bets are already in and I do not feel like editing everything and messing up peoples lines I will leave it as it is. Tomorrow is a new day and will base it off my post.
Any future series as i said I will only be playing the opening lines at -145 or higher. Wether it drops or goes up I will only consider the opening lines unless someone else wants to jump in and volunteer to run the thread. Be my guest
I will list the plays the night before and if someone has a problem with one of the plays just let me know. I will then post the official plays with bet amounts the following day.Comment -
bump and edited for nicer format hopefully. I am still counting boston as official since I already had it posted. You may handle it on your own records as you wish. If on3 wants to not count it when he gets back thats up to him; for now Im going to leave it like this.Comment -
OLD Labby Lines
24-24-24-24
24-24-24-24
55-72-76-98
Shuffled Labby LInes
24-24-X-X +36 + 38.40 +34.80
24-24-24-24 +36 +38.40 +34.80
55-72-76-98
*** Took the loss from each game and divided it over line 1 and line 2. Crossed off two numbers from line 1 since washington won. I took the total of each line and averaged each total line out by 4. ***
Final Labby Lines for 6/6/2012
39.30 - 39.30 -39.30 -39.30
51.30 - 51.30 - 51.30 - 51.30
55.00 - 72.00 - 76.00 - 98.00
Labby Line (filter)
10-10-10-10-30 - 32
New Line Filtered
25.50 - 25.50 - 25.50 - 25.50
FILTERED
#15 Detriot -150 o/u 9 To win $20 ........ lose $30
#16 Boston -160 o/u 9 To win $20 ......... Lose $32
Regular
#64 Detriot -150 o/u 9 .......to win 48............ Lose $72
#65 Boston -160 o/u 9 .......to win 48............. Lose $76.80
#66 Washington -155 .......to win 48 ..............Win $48
#67 Cincinnati -145 .......to win 48................ lose $69.60Comment -
UPDATED
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 57-5-0; Profit: -9.5 units
Filtered System: 14-0-0; Profit: +11.4 units
5/2 chase: 2-0-0; profit: +10 units
Records:
Game 1 (A) win = 35-31; 9-7
Game 2 (B) win = 21-7; 5-0; 2-0
Game 3 (C) win = 2-4; 0-0
Date 06/06/2012
Final Labby Lines for 6/6/2012
39.30 - 39.30 -39.30 -39.30
51.30 - 51.30 - 51.30 - 51.30
55.00 - 72.00 - 76.00 - 98.00
New Line Filtered
25.50 - 25.50 - 25.50 - 25.50
Filtered
#15 Detriot (B) -155 o/u 9 To win $51
#16 Boston (B) -164 o/u 9 To win $51
Regular
#64 Detriot (B) -155 o/u 9 .......to win $51.30
#65 Boston (B) -164 o/u 9 .......to win $51.30
#67 Cincinnati (B) -180 .......to win $51.30Comment -
On3 seems to have the record a little bit off from what I just noticed. He shows 57-5 but only has 4 C bet losses.... Also I want to note I have not been following how 5/2 works and do not really care to keep track of it. If someone wants to take care of 5/2 it would be appreciated.
Looks like 5 total bets tomorrow roughly 4 units to win 2.5 on each. I manage the labby slightly different then On3 in terms of averaging out the lines, but I feel this is the easiest way especially when there are this many losses in 1 day. The main point is that all the money loss was distributed over the lines and I kept it at 4 #s on each line.
Ill check back tomorrow for any discrepancies. Pretty sure it all works out the same in the end though.
Good Luck 6/6/12
JMD
PS
Next new series starts on June 8thLast edited by J.M. Disciple; 06-06-12, 12:01 AM.Comment -
JMD:
Thanks for all of your efforts out of the bullpen.
Appreciated.Comment -
I can do the work for 5/2 while On3 is away.
There is one play today on Detroit. Bet 1 means it is the first bet of the 2 bet series.
5/2 for 6/6/12 - Detroit ML Bet 1
5/2 currently+10u
Last edited by thelimit0310; 06-06-12, 11:52 AM.Comment -
Det & BOS
Comment -
UPDATED
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 57-5-0; Profit: -15 units
Filtered System: 14-0-0; Profit: +3.3 units
5/2 chase: 2-0-0; profit: +10 units
Records:
Game 1 (A) win = 35-31; 9-7
Game 2 (B) win = 22-7; 5-2; 2-0
Game 3 (C) win = 2-5; 0-0
Date 06/06/2012
Final Labby Lines for 6/6/2012
39.30 - 39.30 -39.30 -39.30
x - 51.30 - 51.30 - 51.30 + 79.52 + 84.14
55.00 - 72.00 - 76.00 - 98.00
New Line Filtered
25.50 - 25.50 - 25.50 - 25.50 + 79.05 + 83.64
Filtered
#15 Detriot (B) -155 o/u 9 To win $51 Lose 79.05
#16 Boston (B) -164 o/u 9 To win $51 Lose 83.64
Regular
#64 Detriot (B) -155 o/u 9 .......to win $51.30 Lose 79.52
#65 Boston (B) -164 o/u 9 .......to win $51.30 Lose $83.64
#67 Cincinnati (B) -180 .......to win $51.30 Win $51.30Comment -
Should hit 1 out of those 2 C bets for sure. Thanks for updating while on3 is away J.M.!Comment -
UPDATED for 06/07/2012
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 59-5-0; Profit: -15 units
Filtered System: 14-0-0; Profit: +3.3 units
5/2 chase: 2-0-0; profit: +10 units
Records:
Game 1 (A) win = 35-31; 9-7
Game 2 (B) win = 22-7; 5-2; 2-0
Game 3 (C) win = 2-5; 0-0
Date 06/07/2012
Final Labby Lines for 6/7/2012
39.30 - 39.30 -39.30 -39.30
58.93 - 58.93 - 58.93 - 58.93
95.70 - 95.70 - 95.70 -95.70
New Line Filtered
66.17 - 66.17 - 66.17 - 66.17
Filtered
#15 Detriot (C) -113 o/u 9.5 To win $66.17
#16 Boston (C) -142 o/u 9.5 To win $66.17
Regular
#64 Detriot (C) -113 o/u 9.5 .......to win $95.70
#65 Boston (C) -142 o/u 9.5 ......to win $95.70
* its hard to have less then 4 #s on a line when we go 1-3 and 1-2. * If any of you feel I am not running the lines correctly let me know. Detroit always seems to mess up this system
*Also note some of you did not play Boston as a filtered play because it dropped to 8.5 before game time on the A bet. I am not sure how On3 wants to count this. I counted it as a play based on the opening though.
*Note* I added another win to the books because I forgot Washington the other night.
*I got the early Juice lines based off covers.com. ... 5 dimes does not have the lines out for the games yet.
*my previous post I split the loss over B & C as usual and averaged out the lines individually.
Any one feel we should be adding a 5th or 6th number to the line to keep them a little lower?Last edited by J.M. Disciple; 06-06-12, 09:27 PM.Comment -
Anyone have the correct record for this system? On3's record seems to be a bit off still and im starting to notice little things that need to be changed. If I have it at 59wins and 5 losses thats a total of 64 series. However Boston and Detroit are suppose to be #64 and #65? Is on3 missing a win or did I accidentally add an extra win?
As long as the labby lines are correct we are in good hands. Records mean nothing when compared to profit. Someone help me correct the records?
for those playing both regular and Filtered you will be betting to win a total of 16.1 units tomorrow. Lots of bankroll on the line.
Good LUCK!! I really hope we get some of these lines cleared or at least reduced before on3 comes back. We need to add some filters and manage the lines a little differently for next season. I propose actually adding a # when we lose instead of keeping it at 4 #s, but always betting to cross off 2 #s.Comment -
At least System Integrity is looking good tonight for a change...Comment -
Does Detroit's pitcher really have a 16 ERA for tomorrow? HOLY CRAP! ONLY 1 GAME but damn!!!! Kinda scared to pull the trigger on both of these C bets. Ok this is my last post for the night.
Good night All tomorrow is a better day.Comment -
2 wins 10 losses the last two days? This has to be the worst thread on sbr. So tomorrow risk some insane amount and when it loses pretend it was filtered out. What a bunch of losers you guys are seriously.Comment -
alright guys im out.ill keep the rest of my bankroll for the winter games BOLComment -
I think I need to start using standard labby and get off of the aggressive labby approach, I'm getting killedComment
