on3's MLB 2012 Opening Game system thread 194-8 last year +60 units

[dharma2u]

2 wins 10 losses the last two days? This has to be the worst thread on sbr. So tomorrow risk some insane amount and when it loses pretend it was filtered out. What a bunch of losers you guys are seriously.

This is the BEST thread on SBR, if you know how to play it!
Hint: "B" bets are hitting over 70%

[alexknyc]

This is the BEST thread on SBR, if you know how to play it!
Hint: "B" bets are hitting over 70%

You're wasting your time with that one. He trolls threads going through cold streaks but worships the ground G's Picks walks on.

If he can be believed (and he can't), he's lost his bankroll several times over.

[J.M. Disciple]

UPDATED for 06/07/2012
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 59-5-0; Profit: -15 units
Filtered System: 14-0-0; Profit: +3.3 units
5/2 chase: 2-0-0; profit: +10 units

Records:
Game 1 (A) win = 35-31; 9-7
Game 2 (B) win = 22-7; 5-2; 2-0
Game 3 (C) win = 2-5; 0-0

Date 06/07/2012

Final Labby Lines for 6/7/2012
39.30 - 39.30 -39.30 -39.30
58.93 - 58.93 - 58.93 - 58.93
95.70 - 95.70 - 95.70 -95.70

New Line Filtered
66.17 - 66.17 - 66.17 - 66.17

Filtered
#15 Detriot (C) -113 o/u 9.5 To win $66.17
#16 Boston (C) -142 o/u 9.5 To win $66.17
Regular
#64 Detriot (C) -113 o/u 9.5 .......to win $95.70
#65 Boston (C) -142 o/u 9.5 ......to win $95.70


Any one feel we should be adding a 5th or 6th number to the line to keep them a little lower?

bump.. keeping it on the last page...

[thelimit0310]

5/2 Update

5/2 for 6/6/12 - Detroit ML Bet 1 Loss

5/2 for 6/7/12 - Detroit ML Bet 2

[knugen]

Tigers cant blew this 7-1 lead they had

[Wallco99]

alright guys im out.ill keep the rest of my bankroll for the winter games BOL

Looks like you picked the "wrong week" to stop betting Detroit.

[J.M. Disciple]

Wish I would of stuck 2#s on Detroit now, but better idea to be safe then sorry. I am not sure why everyone is jumping ship again! And I say "everyone" lightly. The system is only down 15 units and less units then that if you combine the filtered with it.

These lines will clear the way the labby is being run its just a matter of time. Some times it takes a little longer when your doing a 1:1 ratio (50%) then a 2:1 (33.67%).

Also want to clear some things up. From all the back testing I seen done. A-B-C all hit about 60% on average. None of the bets seem to be stronger then the other, so B bets winning 70% is a fallacy and should not be stated. Where ever you got that number from it was probably based on a limited back test.

Good Job Detroit 8 units made back with Filter and Regular combined. Lets hope Boston can do the same.

Potential plays for Tomorrow
JUNE 8
Orioles vs Phillies
Red Sox vs Nationals
Yankees vs Mets
White Sox vs Astros
Twins vs Cubs
Mariners vs Dodgers
Braves vs Blue Jays
Marlins vs Rays
Reds vs Tigers
Brewers vs Padres
Pirates vs Royals
Cardinals vs Indians
D-Backs vs Athletics
Rockies vs Angels
Giants vs Rangers

[knugen]

Looks like 4 or 5 games tomorrow!?

[Wallco99]

Looks like 4 or 5 games tomorrow!?

We have to get through tonight first. Win or lose, fortunately I only played Boston once, and not the unofficial filtered series as well. Good luck all.

[thelimit0310]

Detroit pulls through for the 5/2 method. Now currently +12u. Let's hope it keeps up.

[J.M. Disciple]

I did not see anyone respond back about adding more #s to the line via a traditional labby method. Do you all want to keep it at 4#s like on3 has been doing or do you wish to add a 5# when ever we lose? There has been a lot of complaints about people losing too much money based on bet size I assume. This is one way to reduce it. Its... lets say a less aggressive approach.

Its really up to you all, I have my own personal lines I run my own way.

[J.M. Disciple]

BOSTON!!!

[dharma2u]

Hi JMD. Sorry if I mis-spoke about the "B" bets (GM2) hitting at 76%. I was speaking only about this year, so far. I looked at last year's numbers and saw the GM2 bets hit at 65% and GM3 bets hit at 77%. I did not go further back and I should have made that disclaimer. I am not speaking as an authority. I am just looking for the "edge".
Personally, I don't chase. I decided this year to simply flat bet GM2's and GM3's. After the GM3 percentages dropped I quit betting them and just flat bet GM2's. I probably will continue to do that unless or until their winning percentage drops below 60%.
Thank you again for posting the plays and for your sage advice.

[J.M. Disciple]

Hi JMD. Sorry if I mis-spoke about the "B" bets (GM2) hitting at 76%. I was speaking only about this year, so far. I looked at last year's numbers and saw the GM2 bets hit at 65% and GM3 bets hit at 77%. I did not go further back and I should have made that disclaimer. I am not speaking as an authority. I am just looking for the "edge".
Personally, I don't chase. I decided this year to simply flat bet GM2's and GM3's. After the GM3 percentages dropped I quit betting them and just flat bet GM2's. I probably will continue to do that unless or until their winning percentage drops below 60%.
Thank you again for posting the plays and for your sage advice.

Flat betting just B & C is an interesting concept. Im pretty sure you will break even or lose money long run doing that though. Historically over like 5 or 6 years from what I seen they all hit around 60%. Just make sure you are selective in which ones you flat bet. You need juice that will allow you to profit with a 60% win rate. I think its better to just play a lower unit size and labby.

[J.M. Disciple]

JUNE 8
-115 Orioles vs Phillies
+103 Red Sox vs Nationals
-121 Yankees vs Mets
-134 White Sox vs Astros
-126 Twins vs Cubs
-105 Mariners vs Dodgers
-164 Braves vs Blue Jays
-113 Marlins vs Rays
-132 Reds vs Tigers
Brewers vs Padres………Don’t see it listed….
-137 Pirates vs Royals
-139 Cardinals vs Indians.. Moved up to 145 but not counting it as a play.
-146 D-Backs vs Athletics
+128 Rockies vs Angels
+121 Giants vs Rangers

These are the opening lines I got from covers. There are a couple lines that moved up as noted, but I am only counting it as a play if it opened at -145 or higher. On3 was less strict about this, but as Wallco said, this is how the system should be played.

[J.M. Disciple]

UPDATED for 06/08/2012
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 61-5-0; Profit: -5.43 units
Filtered System: 16-0-0; Profit: +9.9 units
5/2 chase: 4-0-0; profit: +14 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 35-31; 9-7
Game 2 (B) win = 22-7; 5-2; 2-2
Game 3 (C) win = 4-5; 2-0; 2-0

Date 06/08/2012

Final Labby Lines for 6/8/2012
39.30 - 39.30 -39.30 -39.30
58.93 - 58.93 - 58.93 - 58.93
X - 95.70 - 95.70 -X

New Line Filtered
66.17 - 66.17 - X - X

Regular
Arz (-146) to win $39.30
ATL (-164) to win $39.30 o/u 8
MIL (-150) to win $39.30 o/u 8
Filtered
Arz (-146) to win $66.17 o/u 9


Good Luck everyone.

*pitching match up and offense looks to be in our favor tomorrow. Looking to put this system almost back in the black with 2 wins tomorrow. Because we do not add any additional numbers to the labby line I will continue to only bet 1# at a time until the line is cleared. Trying to keep all wagers below 5 units to be safe.

[Wallco99]

JUNE 8
-115 Orioles vs Phillies
+103 Red Sox vs Nationals
-121 Yankees vs Mets
-134 White Sox vs Astros
-126 Twins vs Cubs
-105 Mariners vs Dodgers
-164 Braves vs Blue Jays
-113 Marlins vs Rays
-132 Reds vs Tigers
Brewers vs Padres………Don’t see it listed….
-137 Pirates vs Royals
-139 Cardinals vs Indians.. Moved up to 145 but not counting it as a play.
-146 D-Backs vs Athletics
+128 Rockies vs Angels
+121 Giants vs Rangers

These are the opening lines I got from covers. There are a couple lines that moved up as noted, but I am only counting it as a play if it opened at -145 or higher. On3 was less strict about this, but as Wallco said, this is how the system should be played.

Don't forget, the line next to your little dancy guy is -146, it also has to close above -140. The other one looks pretty safe.

[Hunner24]

I see MIL opening at 150 also. And I wouldn't add the 5th labby line. Need to be consistant, and I'm sure when on3 takes back over he would prefer to have 4 lines still.

Thanks for your hard work JMD!

Edit: Or maybe I'm wrong. Scoresandodds has it opening at 150, but covers says 5dimes opened at 143. All others had 145 or above. So I don't know.

[Bradfordmiller]

Thanks for your work JM, not that easy to take over someones system temporarily.

I did notice you have Arz as a "regular" play and Arz & Atl as "filtered", i assume its the other way round.

[darkmatter117]

I see MIL opening at 150 also ...

Edit: Or maybe I'm wrong. Scoresandodds has it opening at 150, but covers says 5dimes opened at 143. All others had 145 or above. So I don't know.

I don't think you're wrong. I see MIL opening at -150 at Pinny, then opening at -145 two hours later at 5D.

[J.M. Disciple]

Thanks Bradfordmiller I fixed it. usually pretty good at catching my mistakes.

Also Wallco I am counting it as a play just based on the opening lines since its already posted. Dont want to have people buy out of their bet later on to be safe... If you all want to take Wallco's advice go ahead and just wait before game time to see what the line is at. IF its still above -140 place your bet; I will be counting it though cause I dont have time to edit this thing a million times a day (exaggerating of course).

[darkmatter117]

I don't want to start (or continue) a war over whether opening or closing lines are better. But I suspect most of the backtests have used closing lines -- at least mine have. I'd be interested to see past results using only opening lines. But I'm operating on the assumption that you'll get closest to past results by using closing lines.

[Mrscofield25]

Thanks Bradfordmiller I fixed it. usually pretty good at catching my mistakes.

Also Wallco I am counting it as a play just based on the opening lines since its already posted. Dont want to have people buy out of their bet later on to be safe... If you all want to take Wallco's advice go ahead and just wait before game time to see what the line is at. IF its still above -140 place your bet; I will be counting it though cause I dont have time to edit this thing a million times a day (exaggerating of course).

Milwaukee did also open at -145 at 5dimes.

[J.M. Disciple]

Milwaukee did also open at -145 at 5dimes.

covers.com/sports/odds/linehistory.aspx?eventId=335156&sport=ml b

here is the link showing opened at -143 @ 5 dimes.

Most other sites have it -145 or above as Hunner said, so I will be

adding MIL as a play. See edited post above for plays. Sorry for the inconvience for those of you who do not get to see this bet. Kind of a last minute judgement call.

[J.M. Disciple]

edit.

[Mrscofield25]

covers.com/sports/odds/linehistory.aspx?eventId=335156&sport=ml b

here is the link showing opened at -143 @ 5 dimes.

Most other sites have it -145 or above as Hunner said, so I will be

adding MIL as a play. See edited post above for plays. Sorry for the inconvience for those of you who do not get to see this bet. Kind of a last minute judgement call.

Thank you. I'm just using SBR odds to look at the opening lines from 5dimes.

[Wallco99]

Thanks Bradfordmiller I fixed it. usually pretty good at catching my mistakes.

Also Wallco I am counting it as a play just based on the opening lines since its already posted. Dont want to have people buy out of their bet later on to be safe... If you all want to take Wallco's advice go ahead and just wait before game time to see what the line is at. IF its still above -140 place your bet; I will be counting it though cause I dont have time to edit this thing a million times a day (exaggerating of course).

That's kind of the idea with this system and any system for that matter. Make sure a play IS a play before making bets. Are people that much of a gambling junkie that they have to rush out the second a play is posted. If you say a play wouldn't be corrected because it was already posted is an absolutely foolish answer. If you wish to play picks based on different criteria every day, or criteria that you make up as you go along, then that is totally your choice. But to this point it has been 4 days with zero consistency. If ANY website has a team listed over -145 it is being deemed a play, instead of using 1 official site, and it's staying a play regardless of what the line drops to. Fortunately, I have my own spreadsheets, and know what are and aren't plays. If no one cares, then OK with me, but had Boston lost yesterday, an extra 17 units would have been lost on a filtered play that never should have happened. The rules are pretty simple, if you wish to use your own, feel free, but at least post what you are doing.

[J.M. Disciple]

That's kind of the idea with this system and any system for that matter. Make sure a play IS a play before making bets. Are people that much of a gambling junkie that they have to rush out the second a play is posted. If you say a play wouldn't be corrected because it was already posted is an absolutely foolish answer. If you wish to play picks based on different criteria every day, or criteria that you make up as you go along, then that is totally your choice. But to this point it has been 4 days with zero consistency. If ANY website has a team listed over -145 it is being deemed a play, instead of using 1 official site, and it's staying a play regardless of what the line drops to. Fortunately, I have my own spreadsheets, and know what are and aren't plays. If no one cares, then OK with me, but had Boston lost yesterday, an extra 17 units would have been lost on a filtered play that never should have happened. The rules are pretty simple, if you wish to use your own, feel free, but at least post what you are doing.

I thought I have been posting what I have been doing... Pretty sure I mentioned Boston at least twice that it dropped before game time so it was up to on3 to count it or not when he gets back. Thanks for keeping the system (me) honest though.

You agree with Todays plays then?

[Wallco99]

I thought I have been posting what I have been doing... Pretty sure I mentioned Boston at least twice that it dropped before game time so it was up to on3 to count it or not when he gets back. Thanks for keeping the system (me) honest though.

You agree with Todays plays then?

Yes, just not the Milwaukee add-on.

[J.M. Disciple]

Yes, just not the Milwaukee add-on.

I read on another forum I think it was system integrity... maybe im mistaken, but someone said the lines on covers are not accuracte because they get them later then other sites. If you notice when i posted all the odds for each game i said I did not see the MIL / SD game. Then later seen it at -143 via covers and other sites at -150+. Seemed like enough people wanted to make it a play and most sites had it above -145.

a little discrepancy on which site had the right odds I guess.

[Wallco99]

I read on another forum I think it was system integrity... maybe im mistaken, but someone said the lines on covers are not accuracte because they get them later then other sites. If you notice when i posted all the odds for each game i said I did not see the MIL / SD game. Then later seen it at -143 via covers and other sites at -150+. Seemed like enough people wanted to make it a play and most sites had it above -145.

a little discrepancy on which site had the right odds I guess.

Who cares when they get them, the opening line is the opening line. That won't change.

[Win89]

That's kind of the idea with this system and any system for that matter. Make sure a play IS a play before making bets. Are people that much of a gambling junkie that they have to rush out the second a play is posted. If you say a play wouldn't be corrected because it was already posted is an absolutely foolish answer. If you wish to play picks based on different criteria every day, or criteria that you make up as you go along, then that is totally your choice. But to this point it has been 4 days with zero consistency. If ANY website has a team listed over -145 it is being deemed a play, instead of using 1 official site, and it's staying a play regardless of what the line drops to. Fortunately, I have my own spreadsheets, and know what are and aren't plays. If no one cares, then OK with me, but had Boston lost yesterday, an extra 17 units would have been lost on a filtered play that never should have happened. The rules are pretty simple, if you wish to use your own, feel free, but at least post what you are doing.

I care and well said for that matter. I don't post much buts it's good to know someone else feels the same about accuracy and consistency. I do my own spreadsheets and play by the official rules too and rarely see the correct plays posted. On3s method really threw me off with the random selections but I'm just glad the rules have been cleared up in here and hopefully everyone's on the same page now.

[Wallco99]

I care and well said for that matter. I don't post much buts it's good to know someone else feels the same about accuracy and consistency. I do my own spreadsheets and play by the official rules too and rarely see the correct plays posted. On3s method really threw me off with the random selections but I'm just glad the rules have been cleared up in here and hopefully everyone's on the same page now.

They were posted, but they're sure as hell not being used.

[J.M. Disciple]

if you want more accuracy and consistency then you are more then welcome to run the thread. If you are only complaining its not really going to solve anything.

[Wallco99]

if you want more accuracy and consistency then you are more then welcome to run the thread. If you are only complaining its not really going to solve anything.

No, that's alright, inaccurate and inconsistent is OK with me, as I said, I know the plays and don't need someone to list them for me every day. If you are saying you can't be accurate and consistent, then maybe someone else should, but it absolutely won't be me. Instead of making 30 posts throughout the day, just focus on the one that is actually important and make sure it's right. It's really not as hard and time consuming as you make it out to be, believe me, I know, I've done it several times.