on3's MLB 2012 Opening Game system thread 194-8 last year +60 units

[darkmatter117]

Closing line for the O/U, opening line for -145 are the criteria

Agh, yep, you were right, Wallco and JMD. Luck protected me from my own stupidity.

[J.M. Disciple]

have a feeling trolls should be stopping by with a C bet on yanks

[thelimit0310]

Today the Yankees were a play and the Orioles were a play under the 5/2 criteria. 5/2 is based on CLOSING LINES as mentioned many times before (and just a few days ago in fact), Baltimore closed yesterday meeting all criteria and lost. It is based on closing lines so a small portion of the bets will not be official system A bets but still be the qualifier bet for 5/2 as it was backtested with only the closing line in mind.

Baltimore is a win for the 5/2, the Yanks will move to Bet 2.

[thelimit0310]

...

[Wallco99]

Today the Yankees were a play and the Orioles were a play under the 5/2 criteria. 5/2 is based on CLOSING LINES as mentioned many times before (and just a few days ago in fact), Baltimore closed yesterday meeting all criteria and lost. It does not necessarily have to qualify as an official system A bet (though 99.9% of the time it will) as it was backtested with only the closing line in mind.Baltimore is a win for the 5/2, the Yanks will move to Bet 2.

Sorry, I didn't realize you used different rules to qualify a play than the actual system does. This should get nice and confusing by season's end. I don't know when you came up with this new rule, but post 790, which you keep referring everyone to, says to find OFFICIAL system filtered plays and use the OPENING line of -145. Closing lines are never mentioned, so Baltimore is not a play the way you have your rules laid out.

[thelimit0310]

Sorry, I didn't realize you used different rules to qualify a play than the actual system does. This should get nice and confusing by season's end. I don't know when you came up with this new rule, but post 790, which you keep referring everyone to, says to find OFFICIAL system filtered plays and use the OPENING line of -145. Closing lines are never mentioned, so Baltimore is not a play the way you have your rules laid out.

Looking back to post 790 I see that in my summation I did indeed note to check the opening line. This was a mistake. We can keep the Baltimore win off the record officially, I have no problem with that and admit my mistake; because I do not want to mislead anyone following. But I would like to set the record straight and mention that the way the 5/2 was backtested only closing lines were used to determine the qualifying bet. The record and unit count average are a reflection of closing only. I should have taken these situations into account when writing up the official post though I make mention of this in my post just a few days ago and in a few more before that. Darkmatter was right to begin with today as he seems to be one of the few people reading these posts.

[Wallco99]

Looking back to post 790 I see that in my summation I did indeed note to check the opening line. This was a mistake. We can keep the Baltimore win off the record officially, I have no problem with that and admit my mistake; because I do not want to mislead anyone following. But I would like to set the record straight and mention that the way the 5/2 was backtested only closing lines were used to determine the qualifying bet. The record and unit count average are a reflection of closing only. I should have taken these situations into account when writing up the official post though I make mention of this in my post just a few days ago and in a few more before that. Darkmatter was right to begin with today as he seems to be one of the few people reading these posts.

You can do it however you wish, it is your system. But I would suggest reposting the rules and start referring people to the new post instead. This is a major discrepancy that should be corrected if you plan to use closing lines instead of opening lines, especially when the actual system does it the opposite way, and your post says to look for plays that qualify the way Rizz does it.

[eric14tsui]

Will the NYY win tmr?

I think they will. System is in test again.

[thelimit0310]

You can do it however you wish, it is your system. But I would suggest reposting the rules and start referring people to the new post instead. This is a major discrepancy that should be corrected if you plan to use closing lines instead of opening lines, especially when the actual system does it the opposite way, and your post says to look for plays that qualify the way Rizz does it.

I agree but not in this forum, I will make the correction for future postings. Everyone here who is following the 5/2 with their money knew that closing lines are used already as I have posted about it quite a few times (In my last post I even underlined "closing")! The only discrepancy there is the fact that Baltimore was not an A bet for the official system, but that does not matter. The only thing keeping Baltimore from being official was On3's judgement in the first place. But as I said even though followers should have known and I did play them I have no problem keeping Baltimore off the record in fairness. Thanks for pointing this out Wallco.

[J.M. Disciple]

so stl (B) and Yanks (C) today right? Figured on3 would have earlier post based on 1pm et game time.

[lennytia]

Yankees are a 4 game series.
The rules only mention avoiding 2 game series, and play 3's.
Any rules regarding this, or do we disregard game 4?

[onacloud]

JM do you have the lines? Game in half hour

[on3]

Regular
NYY to win 113
STL to win 96 -- play RL

Filtered
NYY to win 78

5/2
NYY to win 160

[on3]

Sorry for the late post. Let's go yankees.

[darkmatter117]

Yankees are a 4 game series.
The rules only mention avoiding 2 game series, and play 3's.
Any rules regarding this, or do we disregard game 4?

Disregard game 4. To qualify it must be at least a three-game series, but it's only a three-game chase.

GL today, guys.

[alexknyc]

Regular
NYY to win 113
STL to win 96 -- play RL

Filtered
NYY to win 78

5/2
NYY to win 160

STL is not filtered? O/U was 9 1/2 at 5dimes.

[eric14tsui]

What the hell is the Lynn guy doing? gave up a grandslam when two out. F ME!

[thelimit0310]

Congrats everyone on the Yanks win! Another win for the 5/2, now +46 with Baltimore on the record or +41 without. I'll leave that decision to you On3, though I will be keeping the win in my records for the sake of consistent accuracy with the other backtested years.

[abv]

STL is not filtered? O/U was 9 1/2 at 5dimes.

STL satisfied both the filter and the 5/2 reqs. I'm on both. I'm not sure why this has been glossed over.

[Wallco99]

STL is not filtered? O/U was 9 1/2 at 5dimes.

You would be correct, even by the new closing line rule that was recently created, ST L should have qualified. It gets more confusing every day. I was on it as a filtered play as well.

[thelimit0310]

I think its ridiculous calling the closing line rule "new". I do not post the plays but because On3 missed it yes STL moves to a bet 2. Wasn't glossed over in my book.

[darkmatter117]

I don't know what's up with the attacks on thelimit, but it seems to me he's been not only transparent, but also extremely generous. The STL O/U climbed to 9, so it's not that amazing that some people may have missed it -- I know I did. And if you played STL today and lost, the 5/2 is still the most profitable of the three systems to date. Perhaps I'm the only one who feels this way, but thank you, thelimit, for sharing with us the results of your hard work.

[J.M. Disciple]

STL (c) is only play(s) today. Starts about 3 hrs from now.

STL C - regular
STL C - filtered
STL bet 2 - 5/2

Good luck all.

[on3]

Unfortunately, I did miss the STL bet as filtered and 5/2. I was seeing a juiced 8.5 on the A bet and didnt realize it had climbed to 9. Luckily STL lost both games.

Regular
STL to win 104

Filtered
STL to win 47

5/2
STL to win 100 or if you played bet 1 then to win 140. I'm playing it as 100 since I didn't post the bet 1. But tracking it as a bet 2.

[jcygts6]

Lets get it done cards..

[J.M. Disciple]

close game... waiting for STL go up 2-3 runs to be safe.

If not gotta throw TEx into my labby for the late game.

[lennytia]

a little bit of a sweat this time, but filter plays on the mark again

[MrMannix]

Gonna be a busy day tomorrow.

[jcygts6]

Just signed up with u confession where are my picks?

[chopperocker]

Just signed up with u confession where are my picks?

i hope your kidding. don't encourage a tout.

[J.M. Disciple]

Nice cash for STL keeping both filtered and 5/2 undefeated!

[J.M. Disciple]

Next potential plays

JULY 2
Rays vs Yankees
Blue Jays vs Royals
Indians vs Angels
Tigers vs Twins
Athletics vs Red Sox
Mariners vs Orioles
Braves vs Cubs
Brewers vs Marlins
Pirates vs Astros
Cardinals vs Rockies
D-Backs vs Padres
Dodgers vs Reds

bump fwd.

[eric14tsui]

Very busy Monday!

[thelimit0310]

Gave those points right back to ya darkmatter, thank you for the kind words.

Cash STL bet 2 for 5/2 and congrats to all Opening Home players!

[jcygts6]

Nice job comrades