on3's MLB 2012 Opening Game system thread 194-8 last year +60 units

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  • darkmatter117
    SBR High Roller
    • 04-10-12
    • 104

    #2136
    Originally posted by Wallco99
    Closing line for the O/U, opening line for -145 are the criteria
    Agh, yep, you were right, Wallco and JMD. Luck protected me from my own stupidity.
    Comment
    • J.M. Disciple
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 11-16-10
      • 5154

      #2137
      have a feeling trolls should be stopping by with a C bet on yanks
      Comment
      • thelimit0310
        SBR MVP
        • 01-24-11
        • 1233

        #2138
        Today the Yankees were a play and the Orioles were a play under the 5/2 criteria. 5/2 is based on CLOSING LINES as mentioned many times before (and just a few days ago in fact), Baltimore closed yesterday meeting all criteria and lost. It is based on closing lines so a small portion of the bets will not be official system A bets but still be the qualifier bet for 5/2 as it was backtested with only the closing line in mind.

        Baltimore is a win for the 5/2, the Yanks will move to Bet 2.
        Last edited by thelimit0310; 06-29-12, 11:22 PM.
        Comment
        • thelimit0310
          SBR MVP
          • 01-24-11
          • 1233

          #2139
          ...
          Last edited by thelimit0310; 06-29-12, 11:19 PM.
          Comment
          • Wallco99
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 01-01-11
            • 7261

            #2140
            Originally posted by thelimit0310
            Today the Yankees were a play and the Orioles were a play under the 5/2 criteria. 5/2 is based on CLOSING LINES as mentioned many times before (and just a few days ago in fact), Baltimore closed yesterday meeting all criteria and lost. It does not necessarily have to qualify as an official system A bet (though 99.9% of the time it will) as it was backtested with only the closing line in mind.Baltimore is a win for the 5/2, the Yanks will move to Bet 2.
            Sorry, I didn't realize you used different rules to qualify a play than the actual system does. This should get nice and confusing by season's end. I don't know when you came up with this new rule, but post 790, which you keep referring everyone to, says to find OFFICIAL system filtered plays and use the OPENING line of -145. Closing lines are never mentioned, so Baltimore is not a play the way you have your rules laid out.
            Last edited by Wallco99; 06-29-12, 11:21 PM.
            Comment
            • thelimit0310
              SBR MVP
              • 01-24-11
              • 1233

              #2141
              Originally posted by Wallco99
              Sorry, I didn't realize you used different rules to qualify a play than the actual system does. This should get nice and confusing by season's end. I don't know when you came up with this new rule, but post 790, which you keep referring everyone to, says to find OFFICIAL system filtered plays and use the OPENING line of -145. Closing lines are never mentioned, so Baltimore is not a play the way you have your rules laid out.
              Looking back to post 790 I see that in my summation I did indeed note to check the opening line. This was a mistake. We can keep the Baltimore win off the record officially, I have no problem with that and admit my mistake; because I do not want to mislead anyone following. But I would like to set the record straight and mention that the way the 5/2 was backtested only closing lines were used to determine the qualifying bet. The record and unit count average are a reflection of closing only. I should have taken these situations into account when writing up the official post though I make mention of this in my post just a few days ago and in a few more before that. Darkmatter was right to begin with today as he seems to be one of the few people reading these posts.
              Last edited by thelimit0310; 06-29-12, 11:34 PM.
              Comment
              • Wallco99
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 01-01-11
                • 7261

                #2142
                Originally posted by thelimit0310
                Looking back to post 790 I see that in my summation I did indeed note to check the opening line. This was a mistake. We can keep the Baltimore win off the record officially, I have no problem with that and admit my mistake; because I do not want to mislead anyone following. But I would like to set the record straight and mention that the way the 5/2 was backtested only closing lines were used to determine the qualifying bet. The record and unit count average are a reflection of closing only. I should have taken these situations into account when writing up the official post though I make mention of this in my post just a few days ago and in a few more before that. Darkmatter was right to begin with today as he seems to be one of the few people reading these posts.
                You can do it however you wish, it is your system. But I would suggest reposting the rules and start referring people to the new post instead. This is a major discrepancy that should be corrected if you plan to use closing lines instead of opening lines, especially when the actual system does it the opposite way, and your post says to look for plays that qualify the way Rizz does it.
                Comment
                • eric14tsui
                  SBR High Roller
                  • 10-19-10
                  • 187

                  #2143
                  Will the NYY win tmr?

                  I think they will. System is in test again.
                  Comment
                  • thelimit0310
                    SBR MVP
                    • 01-24-11
                    • 1233

                    #2144
                    Originally posted by Wallco99
                    You can do it however you wish, it is your system. But I would suggest reposting the rules and start referring people to the new post instead. This is a major discrepancy that should be corrected if you plan to use closing lines instead of opening lines, especially when the actual system does it the opposite way, and your post says to look for plays that qualify the way Rizz does it.
                    I agree but not in this forum, I will make the correction for future postings. Everyone here who is following the 5/2 with their money knew that closing lines are used already as I have posted about it quite a few times (In my last post I even underlined "closing")! The only discrepancy there is the fact that Baltimore was not an A bet for the official system, but that does not matter. The only thing keeping Baltimore from being official was On3's judgement in the first place. But as I said even though followers should have known and I did play them I have no problem keeping Baltimore off the record in fairness. Thanks for pointing this out Wallco.
                    Last edited by thelimit0310; 06-30-12, 08:17 AM.
                    Comment
                    • J.M. Disciple
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 11-16-10
                      • 5154

                      #2145
                      so stl (B) and Yanks (C) today right? Figured on3 would have earlier post based on 1pm et game time.
                      Comment
                      • lennytia
                        SBR Rookie
                        • 12-21-09
                        • 31

                        #2146
                        Yankees are a 4 game series.
                        The rules only mention avoiding 2 game series, and play 3's.
                        Any rules regarding this, or do we disregard game 4?
                        Comment
                        • onacloud
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 10-14-10
                          • 5360

                          #2147
                          JM do you have the lines? Game in half hour
                          Comment
                          • on3
                            SBR MVP
                            • 08-23-10
                            • 2197

                            #2148
                            Regular
                            NYY to win 113
                            STL to win 96 -- play RL

                            Filtered
                            NYY to win 78

                            5/2
                            NYY to win 160
                            Comment
                            • on3
                              SBR MVP
                              • 08-23-10
                              • 2197

                              #2149
                              Sorry for the late post. Let's go yankees.
                              Comment
                              • darkmatter117
                                SBR High Roller
                                • 04-10-12
                                • 104

                                #2150
                                Originally posted by lennytia
                                Yankees are a 4 game series.
                                The rules only mention avoiding 2 game series, and play 3's.
                                Any rules regarding this, or do we disregard game 4?
                                Disregard game 4. To qualify it must be at least a three-game series, but it's only a three-game chase.

                                GL today, guys.
                                Comment
                                • alexknyc
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 03-22-11
                                  • 861

                                  #2151
                                  Originally posted by on3
                                  Regular
                                  NYY to win 113
                                  STL to win 96 -- play RL

                                  Filtered
                                  NYY to win 78

                                  5/2
                                  NYY to win 160
                                  STL is not filtered? O/U was 9 1/2 at 5dimes.
                                  Comment
                                  • eric14tsui
                                    SBR High Roller
                                    • 10-19-10
                                    • 187

                                    #2152
                                    What the hell is the Lynn guy doing? gave up a grandslam when two out. F ME!
                                    Comment
                                    • thelimit0310
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 01-24-11
                                      • 1233

                                      #2153
                                      Congrats everyone on the Yanks win! Another win for the 5/2, now +46 with Baltimore on the record or +41 without. I'll leave that decision to you On3, though I will be keeping the win in my records for the sake of consistent accuracy with the other backtested years.
                                      Last edited by thelimit0310; 06-30-12, 06:53 PM.
                                      Comment
                                      • abv
                                        SBR Hustler
                                        • 02-09-12
                                        • 61

                                        #2154
                                        Originally posted by alexknyc
                                        STL is not filtered? O/U was 9 1/2 at 5dimes.
                                        STL satisfied both the filter and the 5/2 reqs. I'm on both. I'm not sure why this has been glossed over.
                                        Comment
                                        • Wallco99
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 01-01-11
                                          • 7261

                                          #2155
                                          Originally posted by alexknyc
                                          STL is not filtered? O/U was 9 1/2 at 5dimes.
                                          You would be correct, even by the new closing line rule that was recently created, ST L should have qualified. It gets more confusing every day. I was on it as a filtered play as well.
                                          Comment
                                          • thelimit0310
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 01-24-11
                                            • 1233

                                            #2156
                                            I think its ridiculous calling the closing line rule "new". I do not post the plays but because On3 missed it yes STL moves to a bet 2. Wasn't glossed over in my book.
                                            Last edited by thelimit0310; 06-30-12, 11:56 PM.
                                            Comment
                                            • darkmatter117
                                              SBR High Roller
                                              • 04-10-12
                                              • 104

                                              #2157
                                              I don't know what's up with the attacks on thelimit, but it seems to me he's been not only transparent, but also extremely generous. The STL O/U climbed to 9, so it's not that amazing that some people may have missed it -- I know I did. And if you played STL today and lost, the 5/2 is still the most profitable of the three systems to date. Perhaps I'm the only one who feels this way, but thank you, thelimit, for sharing with us the results of your hard work.
                                              Comment
                                              • J.M. Disciple
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 11-16-10
                                                • 5154

                                                #2158
                                                STL (c) is only play(s) today. Starts about 3 hrs from now.

                                                STL C - regular
                                                STL C - filtered
                                                STL bet 2 - 5/2

                                                Good luck all.
                                                Comment
                                                • on3
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 08-23-10
                                                  • 2197

                                                  #2159
                                                  Unfortunately, I did miss the STL bet as filtered and 5/2. I was seeing a juiced 8.5 on the A bet and didnt realize it had climbed to 9. Luckily STL lost both games.

                                                  Regular
                                                  STL to win 104

                                                  Filtered
                                                  STL to win 47

                                                  5/2
                                                  STL to win 100 or if you played bet 1 then to win 140. I'm playing it as 100 since I didn't post the bet 1. But tracking it as a bet 2.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • jcygts6
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 04-05-09
                                                    • 3316

                                                    #2160
                                                    Lets get it done cards..
                                                    DO WORK + KROW OD
                                                    do work! do work! do work! do work!
                                                    od krow! od krow! od krow! od krow!
                                                    Comment
                                                    • J.M. Disciple
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 11-16-10
                                                      • 5154

                                                      #2161
                                                      close game... waiting for STL go up 2-3 runs to be safe.

                                                      If not gotta throw TEx into my labby for the late game.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • lennytia
                                                        SBR Rookie
                                                        • 12-21-09
                                                        • 31

                                                        #2162
                                                        a little bit of a sweat this time, but filter plays on the mark again
                                                        Comment
                                                        • MrMannix
                                                          SBR High Roller
                                                          • 11-15-08
                                                          • 172

                                                          #2163
                                                          Gonna be a busy day tomorrow.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • jcygts6
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 04-05-09
                                                            • 3316

                                                            #2164
                                                            Just signed up with u confession where are my picks?
                                                            DO WORK + KROW OD
                                                            do work! do work! do work! do work!
                                                            od krow! od krow! od krow! od krow!
                                                            Comment
                                                            • chopperocker
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 08-16-09
                                                              • 1784

                                                              #2165
                                                              Originally posted by jcygts6
                                                              Just signed up with u confession where are my picks?
                                                              i hope your kidding. don't encourage a tout.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • J.M. Disciple
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 11-16-10
                                                                • 5154

                                                                #2166
                                                                Nice cash for STL keeping both filtered and 5/2 undefeated!
                                                                Comment
                                                                • J.M. Disciple
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 11-16-10
                                                                  • 5154

                                                                  #2167
                                                                  Originally posted by J.M. Disciple
                                                                  Next potential plays

                                                                  JULY 2

                                                                  Rays vs Yankees
                                                                  Blue Jays vs Royals
                                                                  Indians vs Angels
                                                                  Tigers vs Twins
                                                                  Athletics vs Red Sox
                                                                  Mariners vs Orioles
                                                                  Braves vs Cubs
                                                                  Brewers vs Marlins
                                                                  Pirates vs Astros
                                                                  Cardinals vs Rockies
                                                                  D-Backs vs Padres
                                                                  Dodgers vs Reds
                                                                  bump fwd.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • eric14tsui
                                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                                    • 10-19-10
                                                                    • 187

                                                                    #2168
                                                                    Very busy Monday!
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • thelimit0310
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 01-24-11
                                                                      • 1233

                                                                      #2169
                                                                      Gave those points right back to ya darkmatter, thank you for the kind words.

                                                                      Cash STL bet 2 for 5/2 and congrats to all Opening Home players!
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • jcygts6
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 04-05-09
                                                                        • 3316

                                                                        #2170
                                                                        Nice job comrades
                                                                        DO WORK + KROW OD
                                                                        do work! do work! do work! do work!
                                                                        od krow! od krow! od krow! od krow!
                                                                        Comment
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