LTA's MLB Plays

[BigBoi]

LTA, Roaddog, BifftFinancial, Redscot, etc all give good information and plays on games. I do not recommend blind tails but LTA is always spot on with his plays.

[Love The Action]

FYI....I have been using my full MLB unit weight of $550 per 1x for awhile now. As we get a couple months in, that amount will go up by the percentage of profit we have earned from baseball up until that date and from the nba/nba playoffs. I have a few more possible plays for today. Good luck.

[BiffTFinancial]

LTA, Roaddog, BifftFinancial, Redscot, etc all give good information and plays on games. I do not recommend blind tails but LTA is always spot on with his plays.

i definitely do not recommend blindly tailing BiffTFinancial, or tailing him period. guy's kind of a dipshit.

[BigBoi]

i definitely do not recommend blindly tailing BiffTFinancial, or tailing him period. guy's kind of a dipshit.

You guys need to give yourself some credit.

[r1kkie]

Don't really have a static bankroll...probably something that I should look at after the beating I took the last two weeks in the NBA! Usually just bet whatever left over money I have that isn't paying bills or going into savings. Since this is new I think that would be good for baseball.

The ML still confuses me. Royals are ML +125 so I get betting 100 wins 125 but how does that work if I want to bet 20, 25, 50, etc for a unit size?

I would really recommend you to try and save up for a bankroll that you are comfortable with and would not be the end of the world if you lose it in the long run.
How I do is I have separate BR for each sport I bet or guy I tail and use 1-3% of my BR as 1u. And if my BR growths my unit growths cause I always use a % number of the BR and works the other way too.

[BiffTFinancial]

You guys need to give yourself some credit.

naw, just goofing around, man.

will admit that the idea of anyone blindly tailing makes me a little uncomfortable, that's all, i still have a lot to learn, and i hate the idea of leading someone else to a loss.

[bigjah15]

Don't really have a static bankroll...probably something that I should look at after the beating I took the last two weeks in the NBA! Usually just bet whatever left over money I have that isn't paying bills or going into savings. Since this is new I think that would be good for baseball.

The ML still confuses me. Royals are ML +125 so I get betting 100 wins 125 but how does that work if I want to bet 20, 25, 50, etc for a unit size?

Think of it like this. When ever its plus odds . Multiply your bet amout by the odds ( put decimal after one) so 25 x 1.25= 31.25 win amount. And for the minus games say -140 for example. Instead of multiplying you will divide your bet amount by the decimal number so 25/1.40 =17.85 win amount

[LolsMcwinsey]

LTA and followers,

I am relatively new to sports betting. About 2 years on football and one year on hoops. I would like to start following baseball but was unsure of how to approach unit size in a sport with so many games each and everyday. I usually bet 1 - 5 units per play on the other sports ($100 on football and $50) on basketball. Bets are usually spreads and totals. How would you suggest transitioning that to wagering on baseball where games are ML or total runs? How do I select unit size when wagering on ML bets that have varying amounts?

Any helpful comments or directions to other resources would be greatly appreciated.

way to clutter this thread with absolute nonsense. Use the goddamn search button or google. Stop relying on others u loser.

[t-wizzle]

FYI....I have been using my full MLB unit weight of $550 per 1x for awhile now. As we get a couple months in, that amount will go up by the percentage of profit we have earned from baseball up until that date and from the nba/nba playoffs. I have a few more possible plays for today. Good luck.

So let's say you bump your unit size up to $600.

For argument's sake, pre-bump let's say you are up 5 units. Post-bump you are down 4.8 units. At the end of the day you say you've made 0.2 units on the season but really you've lost $50.

[bigjah15]

Dex I noticed something with the double headers this season so far. Fade the result of the total of the 1st game in the 2nd game. I will make small play on tm double header tm

[Love The Action]

So let's say you bump your unit size up to $600.

For argument's sake, pre-bump let's say you are up 5 units. Post-bump you are down 4.8 units. At the end of the day you say you've made 0.2 units on the season but really you've lost $50.

Should I just use 1x to equal $100 and make 5x, 6x or higher unit wagers all season? If I did that, people (maybe you) would just say I am trying to go tout by increasing my units won. Personally, I think that is a ridiculous way to do it. Regardless, your point is mute because it works both ways. If pre bump i am at 4.8x and post bump I am at 5x, the math will say I won 0.2 but in reality I won more. To me, it's easier and more respectable to continue using 1x for my base wager even as it increases but I am open to suggestions if you have any. Good luck dude.

[Love The Action]

Dex I noticed something with the double headers this season so far. Fade the result of the total of the 1st game in the 2nd game. I will make small play on tm double header tm

I am LTA, but I would not recommend that unless you have back tested the results for a large statistically significant sample size. GL

[Love The Action]

way to clutter this thread with absolute nonsense. Use the goddamn search button or google. Stop relying on others u loser.

ouch

[t-wizzle]

Should I just use 1x to equal $100 and make 5x, 6x or higher unit wagers all season? If I did that, people (maybe you) would just say I am trying to go tout by increasing my units won. Personally, I think that is a ridiculous way to do it. Regardless, your point is mute because it works both ways. If pre bump i am at 4.8x and post bump I am at 5x, the math will say I won 0.2 but in reality I won more. To me, it's easier and more respectable to continue using 1x for my base wager even as it increases but I am open to suggestions if you have any. Good luck dude.

No, I actually think the opposite regarding the tout thing. Personally I feel that the best way to make money is to pick your spots and when you really like something, pound it. You need to be selective when doing this.

We are kind of the antithesis of each other. I could care less if I were up a few units over the course of a season. When you put as much time as you do into gambling I would think you'd aspire to be up 20+ units on a season but to each his own.

[JM92]

Well he's on pace to go way over 20 units if this keeps up. That makes no sense. LTA here is keeping a record of his plays. He should use a flat stake method. Is flat stake might change, but what do we care? This is the easier system to track a cappers abilities and also to tail.

GL everyone

[Love The Action]

No, I actually think the opposite regarding the tout thing. Personally I feel that the best way to make money is to pick your spots and when you really like something, pound it. You need to be selective when doing this.

We are kind of the antithesis of each other. I could care less if I were up a few units over the course of a season. When you put as much time as you do into gambling I would think you'd aspire to be up 20+ units on a season but to each his own.

I don't understand your comment. My scale is 1x to 5x, but i only play multiple units in rare spots just like you. However, making 100x bombs just to get your head above water is exactly what the books want and irresponsible IMO. I don't need to do that to be +20x or more on the season. I won over 40x last season of MLB in this thread with mainly 1x plays with rare multilple unit plays mixed in. I aspire to reach to reach $15,000 or more on the season and the safest way to do that with minimal risk is my modified flat betting scheme. I think anyone that bets 1x to 10x and all of a sudden goes 50x or more is just clearly chasing because they don't have the skill, discipline or intelligence to make money gradually over the full course of a season safely and effectively.

[bigjah15]

I am LTA, but I would not recommend that unless you have back tested the results for a large statistically significant sample size. GL

Ahh sorry I bounce back and forth between threads. I am goin to look into more tonight and see what I come up with .

[Love The Action]

Pissed I didn't play my lean on that angels/rays under.....looking good ATM...

[t-wizzle]

I don't understand your comment. My scale is 1x to 5x, but i only play multiple units in rare spots just like you. However, making 100x bombs just to get your head above water is exactly what the books want and irresponsible IMO. I don't need to do that to be +20x or more on the season. I won over 40x last season of MLB in this thread with mainly 1x plays with rare multilple unit plays mixed in. I aspire to reach to reach $15,000 or more on the season and the safest way to do that with minimal risk is my modified flat betting scheme. I think anyone that bets 1x to 10x and all of a sudden goes 50x or more is just clearly chasing because they don't have the skill, discipline or intelligence to make money gradually over the full course of a season safely and effectively.

I never said anything about 50-100 unit bombs.

Getting back to the main point about the unit size, what exactly is your reasoning for changing unit size mid-season?

[JM92]

Probably because is unit size in based on his bankroll which fluctuates during the season?

That's how I do it at least.

[CappinTerp]

I don't understand your comment. My scale is 1x to 5x, but i only play multiple units in rare spots just like you. However, making 100x bombs just to get your head above water is exactly what the books want and irresponsible IMO. I don't need to do that to be +20x or more on the season. I won over 40x last season of MLB in this thread with mainly 1x plays with rare multilple unit plays mixed in. I aspire to reach to reach $15,000 or more on the season and the safest way to do that with minimal risk is my modified flat betting scheme. I think anyone that bets 1x to 10x and all of a sudden goes 50x or more is just clearly chasing because they don't have the skill, discipline or intelligence to make money gradually over the full course of a season safely and effectively.

In baseball it's all about managing risk and power weighting............spot on.!!..........................gl

[SlickRick1382]

I never said anything about 50-100 unit bombs.

Getting back to the main point about the unit size, what exactly is your reasoning for changing unit size mid-season?

If you're constantly playing 2% - 3% of your bankroll for all your bets and your bankroll increases then it only makes sense that your unit size increases. That's all he's doing. He's slightly modifying his unit amount as his bankroll increases. Forget the proper term for it, is it Kelly or something?

Anyway, assuming that's his reasoning which makes sense....

[t-wizzle]

If you're constantly playing 2% - 3% of your bankroll for all your bets and your bankroll increases then it only makes sense that your unit size increases. That's all he's doing. He's slightly modifying his unit amount as his bankroll increases. Forget the proper term for it, is it Kelly or something?

Anyway, assuming that's his reasoning which makes sense....

So if you make money over a 4 month stretch then all of a sudden you increase your unit size? Haven't you guys heard of variance? The only way this makes sense is if your income increases from your job or whatever.

[bmur714]

The same applies to poker bankroll management... When your bankroll increases a certain % you up your buy in amount relative to the big blind and when your bankroll decreases a certain % your drop back down. So why would increasing your unit $ amount be any different in this situation? It's
not like there is any more value assigned based on the increase in the amount since its still a 1x bet.
I'm no expert but this makes sense to me...

[t-wizzle]

The same applies to poker bankroll management... When your bankroll increases a certain % you up your buy in amount relative to the big blind and when your bankroll decreases a certain % your drop back down. So why would increasing your unit $ amount be any different in this situation? It's
not like there is any more value assigned based on the increase in the amount since its still a 1x bet.
I'm no expert but this makes sense to me...

Poker is different because there are other variables involved namely the other players and the blinds like you mentioned.

[Love The Action]

So if you make money over a 4 month stretch then all of a sudden you increase your unit size? Haven't you guys heard of variance? The only way this makes sense is if your income increases from your job or whatever.

No...you simply bet a percentage of your BR at all times. As your BR increases, your unit amount increases because that same percentage is part of a bigger overall amount. As variance hits and your bankroll decreases, then your unit amount decreases because that same percentage of your BR decreases.

For example, say your 1x is always equal to 3% of your bankroll and you start with a $10K BR. In this case, you will start betting $300 per 1x. As you win money, your BR inreases and so does your unit amount because your unit is now 3% of an overall larger amount. Likewise, as variance hits, you are protected because your unit amount will decreases in proportion to your overall BR.

If you are a consistent sports investor that hits between 53% and 55% of your overall wagers like me, then this is the the optimal way to grow your BR with minimal risk because you will see more upswings than downturns. In addition, if you can hit at 65% or more of your multiple unit wagers, that is where you will really make your money. In the NBA this season, I am 10-5 on multiple unit wagers so far. In MLB last season, I hit 64% of my multiple unit wagers. Plus, I am always far more aggressive with MLB because of the increased amount of +ev possibilities with 12-15 games per day on average.

[SlickRick1382]

So if you make money over a 4 month stretch then all of a sudden you increase your unit size? Haven't you guys heard of variance? The only way this makes sense is if your income increases from your job or whatever.

It's incremental ...... There is a difference. You're not going form $500 units to $600 or $700 units all of a sudden. It's incremental.

Also if you believe in your system / model and know how to cap then variance isn't going to affect you that much. Unless you're telling me you expect LTA to finish at the same +8 units he's at for the season or lower ... Then incrementally increasing your unit size will yield returns in the end...

[t-wizzle]

No...you simply bet a percentage of your BR at all times. As your BR increases, your unit amount increases because that same percentage is part of a bigger overall amount. As variance hits and your bankroll decreases, then your unit amount decreases because that same percentage of your BR decreases.

For example, say your 1x is always equal to 3% of your bankroll and you start with a $10K BR. In this case, you will start betting $300 per 1x. As you win money, your BR inreases and so does your unit amount because your unit is now 3% of an overall larger amount. Likewise, as variance hits, you are protected because your unit amount will decreases in proportion to your overall BR.

If you are a consistent sports investor that hits between 53% and 55% of your overall wagers like me, then this is the the optimal way to grow your BR with minimal risk because you will see more upswings than downturns. In addition, if you can hit at 65% or more of your multiple unit wagers, that is where you will really make your money. In the NBA this season, I am 10-5 on multiple unit wagers so far. In MLB last season, I hit 64% of my multiple unit wagers. Plus, I am always far more aggressive with MLB because of the increased amount of +ev possibilities with 12-15 games per day on average.

At what point do you decide to increase your unit size.

[Love The Action]

At what point do you decide to increase your unit size.

Every day. I think you are missing the concept. Everything is tied to your overall BR. As your BR grows or decreases on a daily basis, your unit size will adjust if you are wagering the same percentage of the overall BR on every play.

Now I need to go throw something against the wall as the Giants just gave up 6 runs in the 8th inning to blow my under.

[Love The Action]

Dan Otero is a piece of shit. We have two runs through 7 innings and this piece of this gives up 6. Prick.

[Love The Action]

Lean to the White Sox but will pass because they have never faced Milone and generally struggle agaisnt lefties.

[SlickRick1382]

Lean to the White Sox but will pass because they have never faced Milone and generally struggle agaisnt lefties.

Glad you passed because I am on the A's.

That 7th inning was unbearable .... No reason that shouldn't of stayed under by a long shot ...

[remypom]

LTA been following your threads for some time now, nice write-ups and congrats on all the hits yesterday. If you don't mine me asking whats your thoughts on the following 2 games

4/24
NYY@TEX - I'm leaning TEX with Yu Darvish although the Japanese sensation hasn't been completely seamless despite having the better ERA (3.57) over our counter partner. I have reason too believe that we have TEX at a fair price -139 as TEX knots the series up 1-1.

SEA@DET

I'm leaning SEA+172 here due to the fact that Vargas is the better pitcher with plus money in this match and what better time for SEA to snap a 4 game losing streak! SEA, has had some success with DET last year in which SEA limited DET too a 4 run average winning 6 of 10.

Whats your thoughts...?

Hope u stuck to ur plays

[t-wizzle]

Every day. I think you are missing the concept. Everything is tied to your overall BR. As your BR grows or decreases on a daily basis, your unit size will adjust if you are wagering the same percentage of the overall BR on every play.

Now I need to go throw something against the wall as the Giants just gave up 6 runs in the 8th inning to blow my under.

So you adjust your unit size every day?

[meader99]

So you adjust your unit size every day?

Please see post 6189.