LTA's MLB Plays

[taxe91]

Damn, you still got a good number on Boston. I bet it's easier to throw a perfect game against the mariners, who've a 28th obp, than sox 4th obp.

have to be cautious with the sox though they have an all or nothing tendancy on offense.

theyve scored 9 or more runs on 5 occasions but 2 runs or less 5 times as well. and its only april

[bleedtoledo]

True, maybe meant that as more of a knock on the mariners not gonna hate on a perfect game though.

You say "and it's only April" like that's a bad thing for sox. Whereas, I would think "it's only April" as in small sample size. Over time, sox bats will get better & more consistent. At some point, they'll probably hit an 8-10 game win streak & everyone will talk world series & how brilliant Bobby is

[tb1984]

Just want to check in your thread. BOL

[bleedtoledo]

^tb1984, thank you for that invaluable bit of information.

Damn, bosox are getting hammered!!

[Love The Action]

Good luck guys.....I also like the mariners/tigers under but will pass because of the heavy juice, noesi's inconsistency and a tigers lineup that is set to explode after getting limited yesterday.

[CHAZ]

Can you elaborate on the reason why you like the under in the Detroit game? I was thinking over, but would love to see your thinking on the opposite side here could save me some money

[HOT WINGS]

Good luck LTA like the Giants Game over 8 today, but elected to play Giants TT over 3.5. Looks like game total moved to 8.5 and Giants TT to 4. Good sign for both of us hopefully.

[tb1984]

^tb1984, thank you for that invaluable bit of information.

Damn, bosox are getting hammered!!

Why do you have to pick on me when I just tried to subscribe to this thread? I guess I'm sorry for wasting your time.

[TC Woods]

2 for 2.. , let's get the third

[LoneStar]

TOR/BAL 0ver 9

[bleedtoledo]

Still intrigued on sox going from a +120 something dog to a -108 fave. Did books just realize their opener was poorly calculated?

[Love The Action]

Still intrigued on sox going from a +120 something dog to a -108 fave. Did books just realize their opener was poorly calculated?

No..it's free market economics. They are adjusting to the efficiency of the market which is firmly behind Boston.

[absolutkaos]

2 for 2.. , let's get the third

love getting home from work and seeing something like this in the thread!

[G-manFan]

LTA, Hope you cash on the Sox. Missed it at plus money so gonna lay off. Just wanted to say thanks. Your insight into "sports investing" and money management has helped me with discipline. Honestly, in the not too distant past I would have taken Boston regardless of missing the good line. Thanks for opening my eyes to the bigger, long term picture of doing this right..

[Love The Action]

LTA, Hope you cash on the Sox. Missed it at plus money so gonna lay off. Just wanted to say thanks. Your insight into "sports investing" and money management has helped me with discipline. Honestly, in the not too distant past I would have taken Boston regardless of missing the good line. Thanks for opening my eyes to the bigger, long term picture of doing this right..

Thanks dude....that's very humbling and makes me feel as though at least some people out there "get it" and are paying attention. You are on the money with your assessment. Just because the Red Sox were a great play above +110, that does not mean they are a great play now at -105 because of the long term implications of giving up all that value.

There are people out there that will say "as long as the Red Sox win, what does it matter?" However, what those people fail to recognize is that even the best are going to lose that play around 45% of the time. Therefore, when you consider the long-term value between losing that play at +110 as opposed to -105, you are talking about a 15 cent loss. Add those type of 15 cent losses over the course of the season and you are talking about some big time bucks. While this is illustrated better when you are talking about getting a -130 favorite as opposed to -110 fave because you can see the 20 cent loss easier, it's the same exact concept.

Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Like the Sox over tonight as well with O'Nora as the ump and a funky wind, but like my Red Sox bet at +117 more. The White Sox tend to have real trouble with pitchers they have never faced before, and I would not be surprised to see Doubront pitch well.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/27/2012

Play #1

Angels/Indians under (7.5)(-115) 1.5x (Locked)

This may be a 2x play but let's see where the line goes. We all know the upside of Masterson -- a guy who has elite ability to throw ground balls and get strikeouts with a lifetime SIERA under 3.9. Even though Masterson has labored a bit so far, he has primarily struggled against left handers who are hitting are hitting .346 against him with eight walks and five strikeouts in 52 at-bats, while right-handed batters are hitting only .152 against him with four walks and 10 strikeouts in 33 at-bats. Well, that sets up perfectly for a matchup with the Angels who are primarily right handed and have only Abreau, Morales, Amarista, Bell and Cronger fromthe left-side -- not exactly a murder's row. Now, if you look at Masterson's history against the Angels, you see that he has fared well with only Abreau and Hunter hitting over .270 against him. However, Abreau is not playing well this season and may not be in the lineup. You can generally count on Weaver to be dominate, but no worse than a quality start. I expect both of these starting pitchers to throw deep into this game. I have this total set at 6.1 and the wind is projected to be blowing in from center field. We will be looking to see who the ump of this game is as that is an important factor when determining the stake. I am rolling with the under for 1.5x now and may add to this later. Good luck.

Play #2

Athletics/Orioles under (8) 1x (Locked)

Arieta is averaging 1.2 mph more on his fastball this season this season than last season by getting it up to 93.6 mph on average and that has led to an improved K% over 20%. I expect McCarthy to be a solid 3.5+ WAR guy for years to come after his 4.7 of last season. The A's are not hitting all that well at the moment and even though the Orioles have a solid offense, I think McCarthy holds them in check. The wind is blowing across the field toward the right field corner so I'm not too concerned. I have this game set at 7.03 and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Kurtz]

...and that concludes a 3-0 SWEEP on the day! THANK YOU LTA!

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/26/2012 Recap

3 - 0 = +3.17x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

45 - 34 - 6 = +9.85x

Nice bounceback after some really bad beats. Onto Friday. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/27/2012

Play #1

Angels/Indians under (7.5)(-115) 1.5x (Locked)

This may be a 2x play but let's see where the line goes. We all know the upside of Masterson -- a guy who has elite ability to throw ground balls and get strikeouts with a lifetime SIERA under 3.9. Even though Masterson has labored a bit so far, he has primarily struggled against left handers who are hitting are hitting .346 against him with eight walks and five strikeouts in 52 at-bats, while right-handed batters are hitting only .152 against him with four walks and 10 strikeouts in 33 at-bats. Well, that sets up perfectly for a matchup with the Angels who are primarily right handed and have only Abreau, Morales, Amarista, Bell and Cronger fromthe left-side -- not exactly a murder's row. Now, if you look at Masterson's history against the Angels, you see that he has fared well with only Abreau and Hunter hitting over .270 against him. However, Abreau is not playing well this season and may not be in the lineup. You can generally count on Weaver to be dominate, but no worse than a quality start. I expect both of these starting pitchers to throw deep into this game. I have this total set at 6.1 and the wind is projected to be blowing in from center field. We will be looking to see who the ump of this game is as that is an important factor when determining the stake. I am rolling with the under for 1.5x now and may add to this later. Good luck.

Play #2

Athletics/Orioles under (8) 1x (Locked)

Arieta is averaging 1.2 mph more on his fastball this season this season than last season by getting it up to 93.6 mph on average and that has led to an improved K% over 20%. I expect McCarthy to be a solid 3.5+ WAR guy for years to come after his 4.7 of last season. The A's are not hitting all that well at the moment and even though the Orioles have a solid offense, I think McCarthy holds them in check. The wind is blowing across the field toward the right field corner so I'm not too concerned. I have this game set at 7.03 and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Devils Rays/Rangers under (9)(-105) 1x (Locked)

Even though Shields is coming off some high pitch efforts with over 115 pitches in back to back starts, that's nothing new for him as he is one the biggest work horses in the league. Even though Texas is a great offense, Shields has been able to pitch pretty well against the in 199 AB's holding them to a 3 ERA and OPS under .722. Harrison is have a great start to the season and there's not reason not to back him against a team has fared well against and a team that has a tendency to struggle against lefties. The wind is projected to be blowing in from right field toward third base at a strong 19 mph which minimizes any "wind tunnel" effect. I have this game set at 7.95 giving us over one run of value and requiring a total of 10 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[brucethebear]

Thanks dude....that's very humbling and makes me feel as though at least some people out there "get it" and are paying attention. You are on the money with your assessment. Just because the Red Sox were a great play above +110, that does not mean they are a great play now at -105 because of the long term implications of giving up all that value.

LTA, I think you would be surprised how many of us have learnt how to look at the big picture through your writings and assessments.

The trolls and the haters will come in here and call us your minions because they think all we are doing is tailing blindly, but believe me, guys like me (and G-man above) are here to learn how to be better sports investors. I am certainly on my way.

BOL with your plays.

Interested in your thoughts on Wandy at +139 tomorrow against the reds.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/27/2012

Play #1

Angels/Indians under (7.5)(-115) 1.5x (Locked)

This may be a 2x play but let's see where the line goes. We all know the upside of Masterson -- a guy who has elite ability to throw ground balls and get strikeouts with a lifetime SIERA under 3.9. Even though Masterson has labored a bit so far, he has primarily struggled against left handers who are hitting are hitting .346 against him with eight walks and five strikeouts in 52 at-bats, while right-handed batters are hitting only .152 against him with four walks and 10 strikeouts in 33 at-bats. Well, that sets up perfectly for a matchup with the Angels who are primarily right handed and have only Abreau, Morales, Amarista, Bell and Cronger fromthe left-side -- not exactly a murder's row. Now, if you look at Masterson's history against the Angels, you see that he has fared well with only Abreau and Hunter hitting over .270 against him. However, Abreau is not playing well this season and may not be in the lineup. You can generally count on Weaver to be dominate, but no worse than a quality start. I expect both of these starting pitchers to throw deep into this game. I have this total set at 6.1 and the wind is projected to be blowing in from center field. We will be looking to see who the ump of this game is as that is an important factor when determining the stake. I am rolling with the under for 1.5x now and may add to this later. Good luck.

Play #2

Athletics/Orioles under (8) 1x (Locked)

Arieta is averaging 1.2 mph more on his fastball this season this season than last season by getting it up to 93.6 mph on average and that has led to an improved K% over 20%. I expect McCarthy to be a solid 3.5+ WAR guy for years to come after his 4.7 of last season. The A's are not hitting all that well at the moment and even though the Orioles have a solid offense, I think McCarthy holds them in check. The wind is blowing across the field toward the right field corner so I'm not too concerned. I have this game set at 7.03 and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Devils Rays/Rangers under (9)(-105) 1x (Locked)

Even though Shields is coming off some high pitch efforts with over 115 pitches in back to back starts, that's nothing new for him as he is one the biggest work horses in the league. Even though Texas is a great offense, Shields has been able to pitch pretty well against the in 199 AB's holding them to a 3 ERA and OPS under .722. Harrison is have a great start to the season and there's not reason not to back him against a team has fared well against and a team that has a tendency to struggle against lefties. The wind is projected to be blowing in from right field toward third base at a strong 19 mph which minimizes any "wind tunnel" effect. I have this game set at 7.95 giving us over one run of value and requiring a total of 10 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Brewers ML (+122) 1x (Locked)

I have this game set at +110 giving us 12 cents of value and I am rolling with the Brewers for 1x. Good luck.

[underal]

Thanks dude....that's very humbling and makes me feel as though at least some people out there "get it" and are paying attention. You are on the money with your assessment. Just because the Red Sox were a great play above +110, that does not mean they are a great play now at -105 because of the long term implications of giving up all that value.

There are people out there that will say "as long as the Red Sox win, what does it matter?" However, what those people fail to recognize is that even the best are going to lose that play around 45% of the time. Therefore, when you consider the long-term value between losing that play at +110 as opposed to -105, you are talking about a 15 cent loss. Add those type of 15 cent losses over the course of the season and you are talking about some big time bucks. While this is illustrated better when you are talking about getting a -130 favorite as opposed to -110 fave because you can see the 20 cent loss easier, it's the same exact concept.

Good luck.

slow time of day so if you dont mind LTA I would like to use what you wrote here to start little conversation on "kelly"
you got red sox at +117 and gave them a 55% chance of winning. A straight kelly calculation means you should have bet 16% of your bankroll. I know most people use some sort of fractional kelly. just wondering if you use the kelly formula at all in determining your bet size.

[Love The Action]

slow time of day so if you dont mind LTA I would like to use what you wrote here to start little conversation on "kelly"
you got red sox at +117 and gave them a 55% chance of winning. A straight kelly calculation means you should have bet 16% of your bankroll. I know most people use some sort of fractional kelly. just wondering if you use the kelly formula at all in determining your bet size.

Interesting topic. Yes, I do employ a modified Kelly approach which is tuned to the variance between my model and the efficiency of the market. Unfortunately, this is not a slow time for me as I head into work. Let's try to revisit this topic later or if others want to discuss how they stake their bets with Kelly or non Kelly principles, that would be great as well. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Guys, track the wind for tonights Texas total. If it stays projected for the cross wind from right to third as I noted in my write up, we should be ok. However, if it shifts to blow toward the hitter from right center, then we may have to contend with the wind tunnel. In such a case, we do have Harrison's ground ball tendencies on our side and Shields has improved in that area but we must retain all hedge options. If the juice starts to move in favor of the over, that will be a big indicator of whether the wind tunnel will be a factor. GL

[HarbaughTilting]

Play #4

Brewers ML (+122) 1x (Locked)

I have this game set at +110 giving us 12 cents of value and I am rolling with the Brewers for 1x. Good luck.

Just to make sure. Is this Gallardo or Estrada? I've read that Brewers switched Pitchers. thx

[Love The Action]

Just to make sure. Is this Gallardo or Estrada? I've read that Brewers switched Pitchers. thx

I booked "Gallardo" for the Brewers and "Action" for the Cards. That way, my bet only stands if Gallardo starts but still flies if Westbrook gets switched out. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

http://www.wunderground.com/sports/MLB/hometeam/Texas:Rangers.html?st=1335557100&MR=1

See...we're still projected to go across the field to right as opposed to directly at home which would generate the "Wind Tunnel."

[Love The Action]

For those asking, I do lean to the Astros today but that will be a hard one to pull the trigger on considering I project a solid season for Leake despite his rough start and the Reds are generally tougher on left handers. I would say there is solid value at +135 ish as I have this game set at +126. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Getting Luebke at a great price today, albeit against Hacker who has the unfamiliarity angle working for him. Considering the Pads can't hit regardless, it might not be a bad idea to overlook that angle in this matchup.

[taxe91]

LTA, do you think this tigers ML is the best price we would see for verlander all season? im not playing it myself because i respect ivan nova and the yankees offense, but i cant remember the last time i saw verlander @ -122

[Lovin'life]

Thanks dude....that's very humbling and makes me feel as though at least some people out there "get it" and are paying attention. You are on the money with your assessment. Just because the Red Sox were a great play above +110, that does not mean they are a great play now at -105 because of the long term implications of giving up all that value.

There are people out there that will say "as long as the Red Sox win, what does it matter?" However, what those people fail to recognize is that even the best are going to lose that play around 45% of the time. Therefore, when you consider the long-term value between losing that play at +110 as opposed to -105, you are talking about a 15 cent loss. Add those type of 15 cent losses over the course of the season and you are talking about some big time bucks. While this is illustrated better when you are talking about getting a -130 favorite as opposed to -110 fave because you can see the 20 cent loss easier, it's the same exact concept.

Good luck.

This is why I love your thread. LTA, thank you. I cannot be reminded enough of the long term and value. The thrill of gambling can distract myself from the long term and I make those short term decisions. I gain the most value long term by smarter short term value decisions. I appreciate all you do.

[apurvaas]

Play #4

Brewers ML (+122) 1x (Locked)

I have this game set at +110 giving us 12 cents of value and I am rolling with the Brewers for 1x. Good luck.

Thanks bud! Played all the plays except this one! I liked STL here so I just stayed away from the Game! BOL to you buddy! hope you cash in all 4 and do the damage to the books..

[LoneStar]

Getting Luebke at a great price today, albeit against Hacker who has the unfamiliarity angle working for him. Considering the Pads can't hit regardless, it might not be a bad idea to overlook that angle in this matchup.

I'm on it after seeing this kids stats http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...on=P#pitchtype

[freshguy222]

the angels under is a system play of dexter, which were hitting at an amazing clip last year