LTA's MLB Plays

[t-wizzle]

Please see post 6189.

Considering I quoted that post in my comment, I think I saw it bud. Thanks for the heads up though.

[SlickRick1382]

So you adjust your unit size every day?

Correct. Everyday you win or lose your bankroll adjusts.

If you're just flat betting every game for $100 then that's your prerogative but many people flat bet but instead as a percentage of their bankroll. So in other words if you determine your bankroll is $10,000 and you're bets will always be 2% of your bankroll then you start out with $200 bets. If after Day 1 you're up 2 units then your total bankroll is now at $10,400 and thus your new flat bet (at 2%) is $208 per.

If you're consistent in your capping then this optimizes your bankroll to grow throughout the season.

Just set something up in excel to auto calculate you daily bankroll for you

[meader99]

Considering I quoted that post in my comment, I think I saw it bud. Thanks for the heads up though.

So you realize you asked the same exact question twice?

[t-wizzle]

So you realize you asked the same exact question twice?

I was just verifying it and leaving it open to further explanation. LTA doesn't need you to be his henchman meader.

[meader99]

I was just verifying it and leaving it open to further explanation? LTA doesn't need you to be his henchman meader.

He sure doesn't. Have a pleasant evening sir...

[SlickRick1382]

T-wizzle, was my explanation helpful?

[LoneStar]

Hope u stuck to ur plays

sure did thanks bud, although I guess LTA miss understood me I wasn't looking for him too convenience me in locking up a play or talking me out of it to say the least.

[t-wizzle]

T-wizzle, was my explanation helpful?

I got ya I'm just more or less surprised.

[lakerboy]

Twizzle dont waste your time in this thread. Cap games. Guys in this thread love LTA and dont want you in here. Upping unit size isnt normal but it isnt worth arguing with these guys. Let LTA post his plays to his minions. I urge you to move on bro.

[dlunc3]

Correct. Everyday you win or lose your bankroll adjusts.

If you're just flat betting every game for $100 then that's your prerogative but many people flat bet but instead as a percentage of their bankroll. So in other words if you determine your bankroll is $10,000 and you're bets will always be 2% of your bankroll then you start out with $200 bets. If after Day 1 you're up 2 units then your total bankroll is now at $10,400 and thus your new flat bet (at 2%) is $208 per.

If you're consistent in your capping then this optimizes your bankroll to grow throughout the season.

Just set something up in excel to auto calculate you daily bankroll for you

not to speak for lta... but im pretty sure this is not how he does it

From my experience, it seems that setting milestones for yourself, and then upping your unit amount when you reach them is the best way to handle your roll... I do not know for sure, but I would assume that lta does something similar.. I would really be surprised if he fluctuated his bet amounts daily though..

[dlunc3]

Twizzle dont waste your time in this thread. Cap games. Guys in this thread love LTA and dont want you in here. Upping unit size isnt normal but it isnt worth arguing with these guys. Let LTA post his plays to his minions. I urge you to move on bro.

LB you obviously have to up your unit size at some point... so what, if you start out with $5 units, even if you grind your roll up to 10k, its not normal to up your unit amount? sure it is... but you need to set milestones and have a plan and strategy as to when to do so.

[SlickRick1382]

not to speak for lta... but im pretty sure this is not how he does it

From my experience, it seems that setting milestones for yourself, and then upping your unit amount when you reach them is the best way to handle your roll... I do not know for sure, but I would assume that lta does something similar.. I would really be surprised if he fluctuated his bet amounts daily though..

I understand that but since we don't know what milestones LTA sets for himself I'm giving him a breakdown more or less.

I do mine on a weekly basis. I don't think there is an incorrect way of doing it per-say. Guess we'll wait for an official word on this

[SlickRick1382]

Twizzle dont waste your time in this thread. Cap games. Guys in this thread love LTA and dont want you in here. Upping unit size isnt normal but it isnt worth arguing with these guys. Let LTA post his plays to his minions. I urge you to move on bro.

Don't be a tool bro. Why don't we want him in here? Why do you speak for others?

You seem a little jealous / bitter by your comments, to call other minions.

[speez11]

Don't be a tool bro. Why don't we want him in here? Why do you speak for others?

You seem a little jealous / bitter by your comments, to call other minions.

Ya but aren't minions those awesome little orange dudes from despicable me? They are bad ass

[pacocn]

Twizzle dont waste your time in this thread. Cap games. Guys in this thread love LTA and dont want you in here. Upping unit size isnt normal but it isnt worth arguing with these guys. Let LTA post his plays to his minions. I urge you to move on bro.

I like the fact that Lta keeps a record and just doesn't post plays. Also did you stumble into this thread by accident or are you choosing to waste time?

[Blood Drake]

way to clutter this thread with absolute nonsense. Use the goddamn search button or google. Stop relying on others u loser.

Haha.....you are the idiot. No one is perfect. You get better at everything you do by having people that are either mentors or coaches help you. My questions were placed to a community that is open to helping each other out and are all looking for the same thing....beating the books. I was not posting scores, or or game updates, but instead asking a pertinent question on how people handle determining their bet size.

Another question to get flamed on: Does anyone bet run lines regularly? If so any advice or information that would help with selecting which teams to select. I am cool on betting baseball online now, but my local only takes run lines. I hate online but it is so much easier.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/24/2012 Recap

2 - 2 = -0.15x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

42 - 33 = +8.23x

Losing that SF/Cincy under the way we did really hurt and took away our 3-1 day....onto Wednesday. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Twizzle dont waste your time in this thread. Cap games. Guys in this thread love LTA and dont want you in here. Upping unit size isnt normal but it isnt worth arguing with these guys. Let LTA post his plays to his minions. I urge you to move on bro.

What are you talking about? No one is arguing, I believe everyone was having a discussion. Twizzle is a big boy and doesn't need your protection. Unless he really is just one of your ghosts like everyone says, I don't see what you have to defend him from.

Have you ever read a book on sports investing? Try reading Conquering Risk or any post by Ganchrow in the Think Tank. You, of all people, are not the money management expert so to say "upping your unit size isn't normal" just exposes you as uninformed on the topic we were discussing. If you have nothing positive to add, there's no need to chime in. Good luck on your plays.

[t-wizzle]

What are you talking about? No one is arguing, I believe everyone was having a discussion. Twizzle is a big boy and doesn't need your protection. Unless he really is just one of your ghosts like everyone says, I don't see what you have to defend him from.

Have you ever read a book on sports investing? Try reading Conquering Risk or any post by Ganchrow in the Think Tank. You, of all people, are not the money management expert so to say "upping your unit size isn't normal" just exposes you as uninformed on the topic we were discussing. If you have nothing positive to add, there's no need to chime in. Good luck on your plays.

Lol now I'm one of LB's ghosts. Don't be so delusional LTA.

You and I got off on the wrong foot months ago and its clearly affected your tone towards me whenever I pop in your threads. It seems to lead to an argument each time or your followers defending you.

[Love The Action]

Lol now I'm one of LB's ghosts. Don't be so delusional LTA.

You and I got off on the wrong foot months ago and its clearly affected your tone towards me whenever I pop in your threads. It seems to lead to an argument each time or your followers defending you.

In my opinion, you and me are cool. I didn't see anyone argue with you as we were all having a good conversation. What was LB's point of coming in as if someone was attacking you. To me, this is all silly. Our goals should be to the beat the books by learning from each other. Personally, I have no problem with you or LB. I just don't understand what LB was defending you from since no one was even arguing.

[SlickRick1382]

Are we looking at San Francisco / Cinci Red Under for tomorrow?

Surprisingly at O/U 8 with Under being at + odds. Assuming it's do to the perception after the runs scored today.

If that's a play, what are the chances it goes to 8.5 or do we play it at + odds at 8?

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/25/2012

Play #1

Phillies/Diamondbacks under (8) 1.5x (Locked)

I am jumping on this one now at -110 before it drops. I would not be surprised to see this one dip into the rare 7.5 territory for a Chase Field game. The roof is scheduled to be closed http://arizona.diamondbacks.mlb.com/...p?content=roof and with this being an early getaway day game, a few of the regulars may sit. We have Hamels going against Cahill with both pitchers able to get the ground ball out with GB/FB over 1.5 (over 2 in Cahill's case) and get the crucial timely strikeout with K%'s over 15% (over 20% in Hamel's case). Both pitchers have faced limited action against these lineups and in that time have pitched very well. The ump is Rapuano who generally favors the under, but even in the seasons where he had more overs still had a high strike rate. I have this game set at 7 even and it's going to take a final score of 9 to beat us. I don't think this one gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1.5x. Good luck.

[brucethebear]

Dan Otero is a piece of shit. We have two runs through 7 innings and this piece of this gives up 6. Prick.

Of all the unders to be blown by a $hitty bullpen this season, this has to be the worst.

[Love The Action]

Are we looking at San Francisco / Cinci Red Under for tomorrow?

Surprisingly at O/U 8 with Under being at + odds. Assuming it's do to the perception after the runs scored today.

If that's a play, what are the chances it goes to 8.5 or do we play it at + odds at 8?

I can get under 8.5 (-115) right now if I wanted, but I don't see any value in that play and will pass. My model has that game at 8.29. I know Arroyo and Zito have had good starts, but they both have really low BABIP's indicating they are getting a lot of luck right now and a regression is likely. Cincy kills lefties and has destroyed Zito throughout his career (lifetime OPS over 1.000 against Cincy). Likewise, Arroyo has not fared well against SF. I think getting 8.5 is better than 8, but there is better value out there imho. Good luck in whatever you choose.

[WVU9494]

What books do you use LTA, your odds are always better then what we see on sites like 5 dimes. Thanks.

[LoneStar]

I don't like answering these types of questions because I don't like talking people out of winning plays. However, you have to realize that if I am not playing a game, it's because I don't like it for one reason or another. In this case, I don't like either of those plays and don't see any value.

Although Darvish should be the better pitcher, that is not necessarily the case. Kuroda is the most seasoned MLB pitcher and I am sure he will be motivated to go against a Pacific-based player that gets more press than he does. I like Kuroda and until I see more from Darvish, there is no way he should be priced around -145ish. I think the value is squarely on the Yankees in that game, but it's a better pass imho.

As far as Seattle, I don't see any value there as I think that price is fairly accurate. I don't know what makes you think Vargas is a better pitcher than Sherzer, but I would strongly disagree with that statement. To me, Detroit has the clear advantage in both pitcher and offense and that price is accurate. No play for me.

Good luck in whatever you choose and I hope you cash.

LTA just wanted to simply reply back and thank you for taking the time in answering the question, although you stated "you don't like answering these types of questions" however you proceeded.

It appeared that Yu.... live up to the hype! I'm sure there will be backers next go around at a higher bid.

As far as Vargas goes, I base my statement on the fact that his numbers in his last three starts was and still is much better then Sherzer therefore make him a better pitcher. Now, if you wanna look at career performance Sherzer is just a tad up therefore I'm not sure how you can "strongly disagree" because there isn't much significance in the career performance either. Any-who I cash it The line stood out too me with DET-180. I thought it was a little high, again with a better pitcher and pass offensive performance that Seattle's had in Detroit it was bound to happen. Despite this being my first post in this thread, this isn't my first go around...believe me I'm far from letting anyone talk me out of any of my plays. I do fairly well for myself my friend, so I hope that don't factor in on my next insight when I post or drop a nugget. Again thanks and best of luck tomorrow to you!

[Love The Action]

LTA just wanted to simply reply back and thank you for taking the time in answering the question, although you stated "you don't like answering these types of questions" however you proceeded.

It appeared that Yu.... live up to the hype! I'm sure there will be backers next go around at a higher bid.

As far as Vargas goes, I base my statement on the fact that his numbers in his last three starts was and still is much better then Sherzer therefore make him a better pitcher. Now, if you wanna look at career performance Sherzer is just a tad up therefore I'm not sure how you can "strongly disagree" because there isn't much significance in the career performance either. Any-who I cash it The line stood out too me with DET-180. I thought it was a little high, again with a better pitcher and pass offensive performance that Seattle's had in Detroit it was bound to happen. Despite this being my first post in this thread, this isn't my first go around...believe me I'm far from letting anyone talk me out of any of my plays. I do fairly well for myself my friend, so I hope that don't factor in on my next insight when I post or drop a nugget. Again thanks and best of luck tomorrow to you!

Glad you cashed.....if you dig through the advanced numbers, on the whole, scherzer is the decidedly better pitcher in terms of WAR, gb/fb, k%, SIERA, etc. It's pretty clear cut and not really close when you consider that Scherzers lifetime SIERA is more than one full point better than Vargas.

Thank you for reminding me exactly why I don't like answering those questions about plays I am not on.


Good luck in the future.

[Love The Action]

What books do you use LTA, your odds are always better then what we see on sites like 5 dimes. Thanks.

I've discussed this ad nauseum....i use local books that follow 5d/pinny and legends. When juice gets huge like on that giants/reds over at 8, my local that follows 5d will often move the half run, especially on overnight lines. You should have as many outs as possible.

[Love The Action]

Wow, the books are really showing Chris Sale a ton of respect and I have to agree. He's one of the best young lefties around today. Theses no value at -130ish, but he is one to watch when they face a better team and you can get him at a decent price.

[Love The Action]

Damn...no Todd Helton in the early game. Really wanted to play the rox.

[WVU9494]

I guessed you just discussed it one more time then huh? Sorry I don't have time to read all 700 pages of this. Not once have I found the same line as you.

[Dexter]

Damn...no Todd Helton in the early game. Really wanted to play the rox.

no helton is going to cause you to not play the rockies?

[hydrosmak]

I guessed you just discussed it one more time then huh? Sorry I don't have time to read all 700 pages of this. Not once have I found the same line as you.

So what is your point? Do you look for the lines right when he posts the picks or 7 hours later in the AM. Most of his stuff is posted at like 2AM.

[Love The Action]

I guessed you just discussed it one more time then huh? Sorry I don't have time to read all 700 pages of this. Not once have I found the same line as you.

So your time is more valuable than mine? I take time to help and you continue to act like a douchebag. Have a nice life dude, I will waste no more time on you.

[Love The Action]

no helton is going to cause you to not play the rockies?

The absence of Helton in conjunction with the hike in price is the issue. I am still undecided.