LTA's MLB Plays

[BigBoi]

LTA, yesterday the under in game one was the same way. Everyone was on the under.

[hydrosmak]

Could also be the fact that they played a double header yesterday. Not everyone will be their sharpest at the plate maybe.

[Love The Action]

Lot of wasted scoring opportunities in the Rangers/Tigers game including multiple wasted doubles. Ugh...should have three runs on the board instead of 1.

[SlickRick1382]

Should easily be more than half way to our total.

Still, with these two big bats we can get a ton of runs in a hurry at any give time.....

[RoadDog]

I hate Chad Billingsley. I can't say that enough.

[Love The Action]

I hate Chad Billingsley. I can't say that enough.

Granted, he gave up the home run but that should have been a solo home run and not a two run blast. Errors are killing me today in both unders.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/22/2012

Play #1

Nationals ML (+106) 1x (Locked) POSTPONED -- NO PLAY

Play #2

Cardinals/Pirates under (7)(+105) 1x (Locked)

Not much needs to be said here, with Lohse pitching very well right now against an non-existant Pirates offense and Bedard going against a great Cards offense, but one that has not faced their lineup except for Beltran and Holliday. I like Bedard this year and I like both bullpens. We are getting a great price for a game I have set at 5.95 and with a solid under ump. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Dodgers/Astros under (7)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Wandy has great home/away splits throughout his career and I expect a solid game out of him today with at least a quality start. On the other side, I expect Billingsley to continue improving what could shape up to be a career year for him. We have another under leaning ump here and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Rangers/Tigers over (9.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

I think the over money starts to pour in the closer we get to game time so I am jumping on this now as I don't see the price getting any better. Despite the unfamiliarity factor working for Smyly, he is still a 23 year old youngster without overpowering stuff going against the best offense in baseball coming off a game against Verlander. Smyly's stuff might as well be batting practice compared to Verlander. On the other side, Lewis has really improved and has started the season great, but Detroit's offense is no slouch and they are very familiar with Lewis having knocked him around in the past over several outtings. I almost never play 9.5 overs because you lose on a key number of 9, but I am going to take a shot here with the wind blowing out to right at 13mph (although not very significant at Tigers Stadium) and Tim Welke behind the plate. Despite a rather good strike rate, the guy seems to be an under machine year after year and I think he is one of Dex's auto-umps for the over if I am not mistaken. I have this game at 10.3, so not a ton of value here or the full run I usually like, however, we do win on a final score of 10 and I think we hit that number today. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Yankees/Red Sox under (9)(+100) 1x (Locked)

This game may end up getting postponed like some other East Coast games, but if not I really like the under here. Generally, I stay away from unders when rain is in forecast, but we have CC going tonight who generally pitches the Red Sox lineup tough and he has a rubber arm with the ability to come back from rain delays and pitch well. On the other side, Bard may be the best Red Sox pitcher at the moment and he really does have nasty stuff. I think he pitches well tonight. Obviously the Boston bullpen is a concern, but after such a disastrous effort yesterday, the whole world thinks this one is going to go over. Instead, I like the ESPN Sunday night under trend in this game. This will be an intense game with the whole world watching and when you have two solid pitchers, these types of games tend to stay under. If you look at the advanced numbers for these pitchers, both are very impressive and my model loves Bard even though he has been a reliever. The guy has a lifetime SIERA under 2.99 and he has the rare ability to throw strikeouts with a K% always over 21% and get ground balls with a GB/FB generally over 1.5. The wind is blowing directly in from center at about 15mph predicted by gametime and the ump is a bit of an enigma in Tschida. I suppose you could say he is more of an over ump, but he has had some big under seasons. I will take my chance with CC and Bard on the mound today having this game set at 8 even and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Indians/Athletics under (7.5) (-115) 1x (Locked)

This is really the 5th play of the day with the Washington ML cancelled and I am going to the well once again after cashing the under in this series last night. Although we've seen some early movement to the favor in this one allowing us to get the hook here at -115, I think this is a great value play. Some of the movement to the over could be attributed to the wind which is blowing out to right at 13 mph, but according to the Hard Ball Times the Colliseum has no correlation between wind and more home runs. Masterson is one of the best in baseball in throwing ground balls and Ross is improving in that area. I like Ross in this game because most of the guys who have had success against Ross on Cleveland are not playing. If you take those guys out of the equation, he has faced 17 at bats against Cleveland and only surrendered 3 hits. If Ross keeps improving I could see him being an established 3rd starter in this league. With most of the Indians in this lineup either having never faced Ross or not finding much success, I think he pitches well. Masterson concerns me because of his velocity issues and inconsistency, but he pitched very well over 8 innings and 99 pitches in his last start against the Blue Jays and I expect a similar efficient performance today. I have this game set at 6.1 giving us well over 1 run of value and I may add to the stake in this one. The umpire is Kulpa who is one of my favorite under umps. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

I hate Chad Billingsley. I can't say that enough.

[bleedtoledo]

Yanks/Sawx game postponed?? They already called this game even though it's not supposed to start for five hours? I heard they were gonna get bad weather up there, must be really bad

[r1kkie]

... Never mind...

[SlickRick1382]

Sick knowing that Houston was able to shut down the Dodgers, which was my main concern but they couldn't return the favor.

[brucethebear]

4 hours a night and even less on weekends so I can spend all day with my little man (who is not so little since he is getting to almost 11 months old). Good luck buddy

Wait til he starts to walk if he isn't already. Then you will know you are alive.

[SlickRick1382]

Bases loaded with no outs and only one run comes of it. That's tough. Perfect opportunity to break through and possible give us a push.

[WVU9494]

Tough tough 3 days!!!!

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/22/2012 Recap

2 - 2 - 2 (rain cancellations) = -0.05x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

38 - 30 = +7.53x

Onto Monday....good luck.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/23/2012

Play #1

Red Sox -1RL (-125) 1x (Locked)

Even though both pitchers are coming off horrible performances, I expect Lester to bounceback successfully while Marquis should struggle. Lester is the best the Sox have and they desperately need a solid performance. Because the Twins have not been hitting lefties well and Lester has found success against them in the past, I think Boston should win this game by more than 1 run. Boston's offense is full "professional hitters" up and down and I don't think Marquis will be able to contain them despite their unfamiliarity with Marquis. I have this game set at -168 on the ML and I'm going to risk the push here and avoid paying the -150ish juice by playing the -1RL for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

White Sox/Athletics under (6.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

As crazy as it sounds, the old timers of Colon and Peavy are probably the hottest pitchers in baseball right now and there's no reason not to back the under here. We have a nice under park, two relatively weak offenses, a bullpen in the Sox who are pitching great and an Oakland bullpen that has been above average, I like this play. I expect both of these pitchers to regress as the season wares on and they start to show their age, but for now this early in the season is the time to back these guys. I have this game set at 5.03 giving us almost a full run of value and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Dexter]

check out peavy's k/bb ratio so far.....pitching like he's back in sd.
but you're right - things will change for him in the summer months.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/23/2012

Play #1

Red Sox -1RL (-125) 1x (Locked)

Even though both pitchers are coming off horrible performances, I expect Lester to bounceback successfully while Marquis should struggle. Lester is the best the Sox have and they desperately need a solid performance. Because the Twins have not been hitting lefties well and Lester has found success against them in the past, I think Boston should win this game by more than 1 run. Boston's offense is full "professional hitters" up and down and I don't think Marquis will be able to contain them despite their unfamiliarity with Marquis. I have this game set at -168 on the ML and I'm going to risk the push here and avoid paying the -150ish juice by playing the -1RL for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

White Sox/Athletics under (6.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

As crazy as it sounds, the old timers of Colon and Peavy are probably the hottest pitchers in baseball right now and there's no reason not to back the under here. We have a nice under park, two relatively weak offenses, a bullpen in the Sox who are pitching great and an Oakland bullpen that has been above average, I like this play. I expect both of these pitchers to regress as the season wares on and they start to show their age, but for now this early in the season is the time to back these guys. I have this game set at 5.03 giving us almost a full run of value and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Cardinals/Cubs under (7.5) (Locked)

Usually Cubs totals at Wrigley are not released the night before but my local has 7.5 at -110 so I'm jumping on that price now as I see this one closing at 7. The Cubs' bullpen is brutal, but Garza is the type of guy that has both the talent and desire to pitch deep into games. I would not be surprised to see this guy go 8+ tomorrow. On the other side, Garcia is one of the better left handed pitchers out there with back-to-back WAR seasons in the 3.5 range. You always like ground ball pitchers at Wrigley and Garcia is one of the best from the left side with a lifetime GB/FB of 2.04. Garza is more of a strikeout guy and he has been dominate with K% over 25%. This game will be in Chicago at night with temperatures at 45 degrees and the wind blowing in at 13 mph. With the wind chill right off the lake, it's going to very cold at the stadium which is perfect under weather. I have this game set at 5.99 giving us well over 1 run of value and I may add more to this down the road. For now, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[No coincidences]

check out peavy's k/bb ratio so far.....pitching like he's back in sd.
but you're right - things will change for him in the summer months.

That's going to be a really interesting game. I'm intrigued by the starts from both of these cats.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/23/2012

Play #1

Red Sox -1RL (-125) 1x (Locked)

Even though both pitchers are coming off horrible performances, I expect Lester to bounceback successfully while Marquis should struggle. Lester is the best the Sox have and they desperately need a solid performance. Because the Twins have not been hitting lefties well and Lester has found success against them in the past, I think Boston should win this game by more than 1 run. Boston's offense is full "professional hitters" up and down and I don't think Marquis will be able to contain them despite their unfamiliarity with Marquis. I have this game set at -168 on the ML and I'm going to risk the push here and avoid paying the -150ish juice by playing the -1RL for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

White Sox/Athletics under (6.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

As crazy as it sounds, the old timers of Colon and Peavy are probably the hottest pitchers in baseball right now and there's no reason not to back the under here. We have a nice under park, two relatively weak offenses, a bullpen in the Sox who are pitching great and an Oakland bullpen that has been above average, I like this play. I expect both of these pitchers to regress as the season wares on and they start to show their age, but for now this early in the season is the time to back these guys. I have this game set at 5.03 giving us almost a full run of value and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Cardinals/Cubs under (7.5) (Locked)

Usually Cubs totals at Wrigley are not released the night before but my local has 7.5 at -110 so I'm jumping on that price now as I see this one closing at 7. The Cubs' bullpen is brutal, but Garza is the type of guy that has both the talent and desire to pitch deep into games. I would not be surprised to see this guy go 8+ tomorrow. On the other side, Garcia is one of the better left handed pitchers out there with back-to-back WAR seasons in the 3.5 range. You always like ground ball pitchers at Wrigley and Garcia is one of the best from the left side with a lifetime GB/FB of 2.04. Garza is more of a strikeout guy and he has been dominate with K% over 25%. This game will be in Chicago at night with temperatures at 45 degrees and the wind blowing in at 13 mph. With the wind chill right off the lake, it's going to very cold at the stadium which is perfect under weather. I have this game set at 5.99 giving us well over 1 run of value and I may add more to this down the road. For now, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Giants/Mets under (7)(-115) 1x (Locked)

We have the unfamiliarity factor working big time in this one as neither lineup has faced these starting pitchers except just a few hitters on each team. This will be the second game of a double header and those are always interesting under spots. I'm a big fan of Baumgarner as he is already one of the best lefties in the game and Gee has the chance to be solid middle of the staff type guy. The wind is projected to blow across from right field to left field over 20mph and the weather is scheduled to be cold and a little wet. I think we can expect some guys to sit in the second game which will probably lead to some weakened lineups. Both teams have solid bullpens that are rested from the day off today. The umpire is Dana DeMuth who you never really know about, but who has a strike rate in the high 62% range. I have this game set at 5.93 and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[pacocn]

You know it buddy. He's chilling right next to me as we speak. Nap soon and then we head to the park with our dog. Gotta love family Sundays. I hope all is well with you and your little ones. I can't remember if you have one or two....

Lta, just one a young girl 8, she is the one in my avatar, just bought her a rawlings glove, pink of course. We had a great venture to the Santa Barbara zoo today, she had a blast. Cherish the moments they grow up fast.

[brucethebear]

Any Aussies with an ias/sportsbet account - LTA's 3rd play (cards/cubs under 7.5) is on the board @ -116.

[That Guy]

Any Aussies with an ias/sportsbet account - LTA's 3rd play (cards/cubs under 7.5) is on the board @ -116.

Thanks for the heads up mate

[Love The Action]

Lta, just one a young girl 8, she is the one in my avatar, just bought her a rawlings glove, pink of course. We had a great venture to the Santa Barbara zoo today, she had a blast. Cherish the moments they grow up fast.

Priorities buddy...priorities. Glad to see you know what's really important in this world

[r1kkie]

Play #4

Giants/Mets under (7)(-115) 1x (Locked)

We have the unfamiliarity factor working big time in this one as neither lineup has faced these starting pitchers except just a few hitters on each team. This will be the second game of a double header and those are always interesting under spots. I'm a big fan of Baumgarner as he is already one of the best lefties in the game and Gee has the chance to be solid middle of the staff type guy. The wind is projected to blow across from right field to left field over 20mph and the weather is scheduled to be cold and a little wet. I think we can expect some guys to sit in the second game which will probably lead to some weakened lineups. Both teams have solid bullpens that are rested from the day off today. The umpire is Dana DeMuth who you never really know about, but who has a strike rate in the high 62% range. I have this game set at 5.93 and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Is this G1 or G2?

[ebbearsfb1]

Read who the pitchers are... its game 2

[r1kkie]

Read who the pitchers are... its game 2

Thank you. Sometimes I don´t think so far.

[Sick_in_the_Head]

LTA, how do you feel about the over in the TOR/KC game?

[SlickRick1382]

Anyone else worry that 62% are on the oak / white sox under along with a ton of "sharps" that I know of but line isn't really budging or am I reading to much into it?

[Smutbucket]

and isnt the ump known for unders? ima probably take it tho since its at 10pm.....if it was at 7 i wouldnt....

[CHAZ]

Anyone else worry that 62% are on the oak / white sox under along with a ton of "sharps" that I know of but line isn't really budging or am I reading to much into it?

62% really isnt gonna move a line. Also, the under is being juiced as it is.

[SlickRick1382]

Yeah I know 62% isn't critical but seeing a ton of people on it kinda made me double think it but I'm obviously reading too much into it

[dlunc3]

Yeah I know 62% isn't critical but seeing a ton of people on it kinda made me double think it but I'm obviously reading too much into it

the 3 or 4 "sharps" on sbr arent gonna move a line... and even with that 62%, there could be more money on the 38% side as we have no clue how much money is being wagered

[bmur714]

Yeah I know 62% isn't critical but seeing a ton of people on it kinda made me double think it but I'm obviously reading too much into it

LTA has dabbled on this before... Even though we know the % of bets on a particular side we don't know how much $ is layed on one side (only the books know this).

Just because 62% of the bets are on the under for all we know it could be a bunch of $20 bets... If we had access to this info the books would have no more edge... They know who particular betters are and who the sharps are on their books.. So if a sharp lays a 5k bet then maybe they will move the line.. If a no name person lays a 5k bet they might not even blink twice.

No one knows that information, only the books. You can find the % of bets on the under at a number of free sites such as scoresodds.com, sportspy, sbr, etc.

Scoresodds only takes data from sportsbook.com so that information is limited to one book. As far as free sites, I prefer pregame's sportsspy because it takes data from multiple books. However, pay sites such as don best, sports insights, sports options, etc. are always better.

Remember, however, that is not necessarily money percentages. Instead, that just shows you percentage of total wagers. For example, even though 70% of the Owagers are on the over, those could be the majority of the $20 bets and the under could have all the max wagers. In such a case, even though more total bets are on the over, the under would actually have more money. No one really knows the amount of money on each side except for the books. Good luck.

[fitguy67]

LTA has dabbled on this before... Even though we know the % of bets on a particular side we don't know how much $ is layed on one side (only the books know this).

Just because 62% of the bets are the under for all we know it coukd be a bunch of $20 bets... If we had access to this info the books would have no more edge... They know who particular betters are and who the sharps are on there books.. So if a sharp lays a 5k then maybe they will move the line.. If a no name person lays 5k they might not even blink twice.

very well stated...hit the nail right on the head