Sometimes you post positive stuff and sometimes you act like a troll, so I don't know what to think. Are you a chick by any chance? LOL
That's a classic line LTA!!!
That's a classic line LTA!!!
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Thanks for the reply LTA, I am playing both Padres TT under 2.5 and under 5.5 for the game. I think I have a good chance at cashing both.
Anyone else think Texas Rangers are value central tonight? Will wait for lineups but with their offense at +145, I will take them all day long at that price. Verlander is a stud but can he hold Texas down? I don't think so and at -150 he is overpriced imo, might be a square pick to take the rangers but I like its chance of cashingComment -
Actually, I like Verlander tonight and will most likely play Detroit -1 RL so I get them at -107 or -108 depending your ML and -1.5RL price.
Verlander is Verlander and (1) is coming off that tough beat where he gave up the late run, (2) will want to be sharp for this game and (3) is the best pitcher in the game right now and (4) has dominated this Texas lineup over 130+ at bats (not significant enough sample size to make a real determination, but certainly a nice trend if you are backing Detroit). Feliz on the other hand has been knocked around by Detroit in the past and they are very familiar with what he brings to the table. In addition, one of the very few situational plays in baseball (remember, baseball is 95% all about the stats and math) is to back the team that lost the first game of a doubleheader. When you have two good teams, a sweep is rather rare. I think Detroit wins this game and my only decision is whether to lay the -150 or to play them at -1RL at -107 and avoid the juice but risk the push. My model has this game at -175 for Detroit, so I think there is good value either way. I am generally adverse to paying more than -135 in juice so I will probably risk the push because Texas is playing so great right now. Good luck on whatever you decide.Comment -
5D has Det -156. -1 run at -110.
How about that for respect for the hot Rangers?
I bet 5 bucks on the Rangers for fun and riding the hot hand, but will be glad to reverse that in a serious play if needed.
Thinking if anyone can derail the Texas Train is Verlander.Comment -
Actually LTA, he's coming off a win. The loss was 2 starts ago, but we cashed on the under. He won his last start, I bet on him. He made it a nail biter in the ninth, putting runners on. But Leland left him in. He struck out the last guy, his 131st pitch. It was clocked at 100mphComment -
Duh...thanks for the reminder. I'm still like Verlander tonight. This will be early playoff-like baseball and the Tigers have a huge advantage in starting pitching with a similar, if not quite as deadly, lineup. I like the Tigers to win this by 2 despite it being a "square" play. Good luck.Comment -
My Texas lean is partially gut feeling so I am just playing them to win 1x instead of risking 1x. I do like Feliz and I think he can keep Detroit to under 4 runs. I just feel that Verlander will have trouble tonight and I can't turn down the Rangers offense at +145. I do think that if Texas lose it will be by quite a few runs so I would agree with you that Detroit -1RL instead of the juice on the ML is the right play if you like the Tigers.
I was really rooting for Detroit to win the early game as this now puts Detroit in a good situational position as you say. This will certainly be an interesting game to watch and I have been on the rest of your plays so far and am on the late under. I will of course check lineups in case there are any scratches. BOL tonightComment -
I can't argue with the Rangers offense at plus odds argument. However, it's not like the Tigers offense is chopped liver. The Tigers are a top 5 offense in baseball just like the Rangers. Feliz is ok, but he can't hold Verlander's jock to use an old baseball expression. To compare a guy like Feliz who has had a 1.1, 1.8 and 1 WAR over the last three seasons to Verlander and his 8.3, 6.4 and 7 WAR over that same timeframe, is not something you want to do because Verlander makes Feliz look pedestrian. I think the value is squarely on the favorite in this game and it's a bit troublesome to me that my model has -175 but the books opened at -150 as if they want Verlander money. However, in this game, I'm not sure there's a square or sharp play because these are both public teams. I know it's hard to fade Texas right now, but with this big of a starting pitching advantage and Detroit having a similar type of explosive offense, I will roll with the home team and trust them to win by 2. That way, in case you are right about all this -- which is certainly a possibility -- I will not have to eat the 40+ cents in juice. Good luck dude.Comment -
Looks like Humber isn't regressing this season. Perfect game.
Colin Cowherd called the mariners a AAA team lolComment -
I totally agree on the pitching mismatch, I wasn't trying to compare the two. I think where we differ is that I believe the gap in quality between the offenses is greater than you perceive it to be. I do value Detroit's offense highly but Texas are just on another level to anyone atm, they put double digits like its nothing and I'm hoping they ride the heater into this game. As I speak the line movement favors your play which is what I should of expected as soon as you posted the play lol. I have enjoyed the discussion, value your argument and I am most certainly looking forward to this game.
On another point I like the look of the over in Braves/Dbacks game, does anyone know if the roof is open/closed?Comment -
I see Beltre is out, pulled a hammy in the first game
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Good luck buddy. I appreciate your contribution.
The AZ roof is open tonight and closed tomorrow. I might have one more play tonight in the late games, but not that one. Good luck.
Here's the link to the AZ roof info http://arizona.diamondbacks.mlb.com/...p?content=roofComment -
Play #5
Indians/Athletics under (7)(+105) 1x (Locked)
This will be my final play of the night and a great play to round out the card. Over 75% of all wagers are on the over, but I just don't see it and expect the steam to hit this under soon. Not many people know of Jeanmar Gomez but I think he could be a solid number 3 starter in the future. He's not a big strike out guy just like McCarthy, but Gomez can also get the groundball outs. In limited action, Gomez has show himself to be a great ground ball pitcher with a GB/FB over 1.8. I think he will improve on strikeouts and missing bats as he matures. McCarthy really shined last season with a huge WAR of 4.7 which is really solid for a starting pitcher. He also has a great GB/FB around 1.5 and knows how to pitch. I expect both these guys to be under 3.99 SIERA and ERA this season. Neither offense is overpowering at the moment and there's no weather that would help the over. The umpire is Alan Porter who has favored the under in his short umpiring career with a strike rate around 63%. I expect a low scoring game tonight and have this game set at 5.99 giving us a full run of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
Great writeup LTA...even by LTA write up standards.
5D juicing up the under to +110 because of the under money coming in.
I wonder if it will be possible for the line to up to U 7.5 within the next hour?
I can't get hurt much by waiting for 30 minutes to see because if it goes up it can really help to pick up the hook on what is the 2nd most common total line in baseball.
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I don't think it will go to 7.5, but even if it does I would rather play this game at 7 at plus odds than pay -120 or more for 7.5. There's no way you are going to get a decent price on 7.5 or it would have gotten that high already imho. I think we see some steam hit the under sometime before gametime dropping this one to a closer around -110 on the under. Plus, if this does hit 8, you won't have to pay the big juice. Now, you do risk the push on the key number of 7, but in my opinion this one is either going over or ending around 5 runs. Good luck.Great writeup LTA...even by LTA write up standards.
5D juicing up the under to +110 because of the under money coming in.
I wonder if it will be possible for the line to up to U 7.5 within the next hour?
I can't get hurt much by waiting for 30 minutes to see because if it goes up it can really help to pick up the hook on what is the 2nd most common total line in baseball.
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Valverde has to be the worst closer for people's blood pressure when you're 3 outs away from cashing. Walked 2 on the verge of 3Comment -
Good call on Verlander shutting them down LTA, they couldn't touch him. Unlucky you only pushed your bet. I really thought Andrus had hit a 3 run homer there but it was just a little short.Comment -
Damn Padres...you just couldn't hold the shutout.Comment -
Doesnt get any worse than the under 5.5 not hitting just like that.
Terrible break. But we move on to the following days grind. Tomorrows a new day.Comment -
4 inning 9th inning all with 2 outs... gotta love itComment -
the worst thing about that single run in the 9th is with two outs, they let Rollins steal 2nd & then 3rd on consecutive pitches (without even trying to get him), then a meaningless double scores the run. if he doesn't steal 2nd, he probably doesn't score on the double. arg. on to tomorrow. thx LTA.Comment -
Just the way it goes brother.
Its quite the feeling being on the right side of that dumb luck, though. As rare as it is.Comment -
LTA...you promised making up the units....wow...you paid it back real quick.
Great job again.
I look forward to all of the guys who complained about losing yesterday to tell us how much they won tonight.
Thank you for your effort.
Congrats all...see you tomorrow.Comment -
MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/21/2012 Recap
3 - 1 - 1 = +1.9x
MLB 2012 Regular Season
35 - 28 = +7.58x
Man oh man, we got lucky with that Mets over but paid that back twice tonight with brutal beats with the Pads under and on the Tigers push. I knew the risk of the push with the Tigers, but the way we pushed was excruciating. My wife and I were out at the bar with friends and that was not something I wanted to see. Nevertheless, we can never bitch about a profitable night so we bank those units and move onto Sunday. Good luck.Comment
