LTA's MLB Plays

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/22/2012

Play #1

Nationals ML (+106) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Cardinals/Pirates under (7)(+105) 1x (Locked)

Play #3

Dodgers/Astros under (7)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Good luck.

[taxe91]

surprised to not see you backing your man justin masterson!

[brucethebear]

The three games you listed are the three games I circled. All my books have moved the cards to 7.5 and juiced the under (-130).
Really like the stros under.

Only just started using 5dimes for MLB, the reduced lines are brilliant. An extra 5% over the season is quite significant.

Bol mate.

[Les_Nuts]

That game sucked last night. Was on padres under 2.5 and game under 5.5. Padres are at 0 2 with 2 outs in what is likely to be their last out in the game they get 3 runs somehow ( taking the tt over) and then give up a garbage run to Philly to ruin the under. I suppose it's karma for that mets over, but it hurts going from a likely 2 0 to 0 2. Oh well onto today, really like the cards today and will probably take them -1 to avoid the juice

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/22/2012

Play #1

Nationals ML (+106) 1x (Locked) POSTPONED -- NO PLAY

Play #2

Cardinals/Pirates under (7)(+105) 1x (Locked)

Play #3

Dodgers/Astros under (7)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Good luck.

Play #1 has been postponed due to rain. No play.

[Love The Action]

surprised to not see you backing your man justin masterson!

There's still time. I wanted to wait on that one to see if the price would go down and it has. However, I'm not so sure Masterson is 100% healthy. He has not pitched like himself except for one start this season. GL

[Love The Action]

The three games you listed are the three games I circled. All my books have moved the cards to 7.5 and juiced the under (-130).
Really like the stros under.

Only just started using 5dimes for MLB, the reduced lines are brilliant. An extra 5% over the season is quite significant.

Bol mate.

To be accurate, the books didn't move to 7.5 with heavy juice on the Pirates under, that was the opening number/price. The juice has only got heavier and heavier. As soon MLB totals get to the -135ish juice range, my local automatically moves to 7 with plus odds on the under. That is when I made my play because I do not want to pay the juice on this total and I would rather risk the push on the key number of 7. In this game, although I like the under and my model shows a run of value, I am concerned because the Cardinals have a great offense and the Pirates have not played good defense this season. Therefore, if this one hits 8, I do not want to pay -130ish juice. In this case, I think it's better to get the plus odds at 7 than to pay the heavy juice for under 7.5. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

That game sucked last night. Was on padres under 2.5 and game under 5.5. Padres are at 0 2 with 2 outs in what is likely to be their last out in the game they get 3 runs somehow ( taking the tt over) and then give up a garbage run to Philly to ruin the under. I suppose it's karma for that mets over, but it hurts going from a likely 2 0 to 0 2. Oh well onto today, really like the cards today and will probably take them -1 to avoid the juice

You are preaching to the choir buddy. A tough beat to be sure.

Looks like I was right about Detroit/Texas last night but my cheap ass just pushed because I didn't want to pay the full -150. Oh well, good luck on your plays.

[pacocn]

Lta, nice looking card, i was disappointed to see nats game
cancelled really liked the under in that one. Bol on your plays

[G-manFan]

.......

[Les_Nuts]

You are preaching to the choir buddy. A tough beat to be sure.

Looks like I was right about Detroit/Texas last night but my cheap ass just pushed because I didn't want to pay the full -150. Oh well, good luck on your plays.

Yeah, I commentated after the game saying you called it right but were unlucky to push. Texas couldn't touch Verlander, a great pitching performance. Feliz was great apart from that one bad inning as well

[Catchn_Picks]

Posted 4:47 am????

Dude, do you ever sleep?

Thanks so much.

Catchn

[Love The Action]

Lta, nice looking card, i was disappointed to see nats game
cancelled really liked the under in that one. Bol on your plays

I would have played the under too, but the threat of rain made it impossible. You should remember that when it's going to rain -- and the weather report said 100% chance of rain -- it's hard to play unders because rain delays cause starters to be lifted early which leads to earlier bullpen involvement from long relievers who are usually the worse pitchers on the team. That is why I played the Nats instead. Johnson is coming off of surgery so if there was a rain delay the Fish would not have trotted him back out there and would have lifted him for a long relief guy. However, Gonzalez is more healthy and might have been able to make it through such a delay. The issue is moot now, but I am always wary of unders when rain is involved. Good luck Pac man!

[Love The Action]

Posted 4:47 am????

Dude, do you ever sleep?

Thanks so much.

Catchn

4 hours a night and even less on weekends so I can spend all day with my little man (who is not so little since he is getting to almost 11 months old). Good luck buddy

[Catchn_Picks]

I have not confirmed this but I just read this report about the early Tex/Det game FWIW.



'A note about the Rangers side; Wind straight out to RF @ 21. Lewis not much of a ground ball pitcher and and conditions give advantage to LHP v RHP.;

[Catchn_Picks]

4 hours a night and even less on weekends so I can spend all day with my little man (who is not so little since he is getting to almost 11 months old). Good luck buddy

You truly are a version of the modern renaissance man...balancing lots of work, marriage and young child and many capping winners. (oh, an occasional nutbag online poster...lol)

[pacocn]

4 hours a night and even less on weekends so I can spend all day with my little man (who is not so little since he is getting to almost 11 months old). Good luck buddy

Lta, it won't be long before you are teaching the little guy how to throw a splitter.

[Love The Action]

I have not confirmed this but I just read this report about the early Tex/Det game FWIW.



'A note about the Rangers side; Wind straight out to RF @ 21. Lewis not much of a ground ball pitcher and and conditions give advantage to LHP v RHP.;

I like the over in that game. A strong lean and possible play for today despite the unfamiliarity factor with Smyly. However, the wind is not at 21 mph according to this trusted source and sports insights which both have it around 13 mph http://www.wunderground.com/sports/M...?st=1335099900

[Love The Action]

Lta, it won't be long before you are teaching the little guy how to throw a splitter.

You know it buddy. He's chilling right next to me as we speak. Nap soon and then we head to the park with our dog. Gotta love family Sundays. I hope all is well with you and your little ones. I can't remember if you have one or two....

[Love The Action]

Props to Philip Humber. I thought we would see a regression this season but not yet. Wow

[Les_Nuts]

Really like that over as well LTA, bit pissed I missed the earlier price though

[Love The Action]

Really like that over as well LTA, bit pissed I missed the 9 earlier though.

You didn't....it opened at 9.5 pretty much everywhere. I'm just waiting to see if it goes down to 9, which I highly doubt.

[Les_Nuts]

You didn't....it opened at 9.5 pretty much everywhere. I'm just waiting to see if it goes down to 9, which I highly doubt.

Typo from me, I meant to say missed the higher price earlier. Was thinking about a different game when typing lol. It was at +100 earlier at my books

[WVU9494]

Sometimes you post positive stuff and sometimes you act like a troll, so I don't know what to think. Are you a chick by any chance? LOL

That's a classic line LTA!!!

[speez11]

Been tailing LTA loosely the past weekend and your picks our solid, need a big day today! BOL

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/22/2012

Play #1

Nationals ML (+106) 1x (Locked) POSTPONED -- NO PLAY

Play #2

Cardinals/Pirates under (7)(+105) 1x (Locked)

Not much needs to be said here, with Lohse pitching very well right now against an non-existant Pirates offense and Bedard going against a great Cards offense, but one that has not faced their lineup except for Beltran and Holliday. I like Bedard this year and I like both bullpens. We are getting a great price for a game I have set at 5.95 and with a solid under ump. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Dodgers/Astros under (7)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Wandy has great home/away splits throughout his career and I expect a solid game out of him today with at least a quality start. On the other side, I expect Billingsley to continue improving what could shape up to be a career year for him. We have another under leaning ump here and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Rangers/Tigers over (9.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

I think the over money starts to pour in the closer we get to game time so I am jumping on this now as I don't see the price getting any better. Despite the unfamiliarity factor working for Smyly, he is still a 23 year old youngster without overpowering stuff going against the best offense in baseball coming off a game against Verlander. Smyly's stuff might as well be batting practice compared to Verlander. On the other side, Lewis has really improved and has started the season great, but Detroit's offense is no slouch and they are very familiar with Lewis having knocked him around in the past over several outtings. I almost never play 9.5 overs because you lose on a key number of 9, but I am going to take a shot here with the wind blowing out to right at 13mph (although not very significant at Tigers Stadium) and Tim Welke behind the plate. Despite a rather good strike rate, the guy seems to be an under machine year after year and I think he is one of Dex's auto-umps for the over if I am not mistaken. I have this game at 10.3, so not a ton of value here or the full run I usually like, however, we do win on a final score of 10 and I think we hit that number today. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Looks like I got a bad number on the Ranger/Tigers over after all. Pinny dropped the juice on the under to -109 and I thought over money would start to come in. Instead, it went the other way and under money came in. Oh well, it doesn't happen often, but this will be the 25% of the time that I don't beat the closer. Damn.

[Love The Action]

Been tailing LTA loosely the past weekend and your picks our solid, need a big day today! BOL

Good luck, but this is just one day in a seventh month period of MLB. No more important than any other day. Remember, this is a long haul sport and there will be ups and downs. Consistency, discipline, grinding and money management are key. Good luck.

[speez11]

Thanks for the words of wisdom LTA, I was just implying a Big day to start of the week, not saying 1 day will make or break the bank. Good luck to you and the dedicated members that post throughout this thread.

[Love The Action]

Thanks for the words of wisdom LTA, I was just implying a Big day to start of the week, not saying 1 day will make or break the bank. Good luck to you and the dedicated members that post throughout this thread.

Good luck sir

[TxBulldog]

Looks like I got a bad number on the Ranger/Tigers over after all. Pinny dropped the juice on the under to -109 and I thought over money would start to come in. Instead, it went the other way and under money came in. Oh well, it doesn't happen often, but this will be the 25% of the time that I don't beat the closer. Damn.

That's OK, I paid the juice for you.....but I grabbed it at 9. I like this play and was already on it.

[Love The Action]

That's OK, I paid the juice for you.....but I grabbed it at 9. I like this play and was already on it.

If this game ends on 9 runs, I am going to be very, very pissed considering that I can get over 9 at -115 right now. With that said, and despite this line movement and the 40 degree temps, I think this one sails over. I could be wrong, but these two teams are very capable of reaching DD runs against these pitchers. Both lineups are at full strength and I expect to see some offense. After getting so many bad beats in games that I destroyed the closer, we deserve to win one where we get beat by the closer. GL

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/22/2012

Play #1

Nationals ML (+106) 1x (Locked) POSTPONED -- NO PLAY

Play #2

Cardinals/Pirates under (7)(+105) 1x (Locked)

Not much needs to be said here, with Lohse pitching very well right now against an non-existant Pirates offense and Bedard going against a great Cards offense, but one that has not faced their lineup except for Beltran and Holliday. I like Bedard this year and I like both bullpens. We are getting a great price for a game I have set at 5.95 and with a solid under ump. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Dodgers/Astros under (7)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Wandy has great home/away splits throughout his career and I expect a solid game out of him today with at least a quality start. On the other side, I expect Billingsley to continue improving what could shape up to be a career year for him. We have another under leaning ump here and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Rangers/Tigers over (9.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

I think the over money starts to pour in the closer we get to game time so I am jumping on this now as I don't see the price getting any better. Despite the unfamiliarity factor working for Smyly, he is still a 23 year old youngster without overpowering stuff going against the best offense in baseball coming off a game against Verlander. Smyly's stuff might as well be batting practice compared to Verlander. On the other side, Lewis has really improved and has started the season great, but Detroit's offense is no slouch and they are very familiar with Lewis having knocked him around in the past over several outtings. I almost never play 9.5 overs because you lose on a key number of 9, but I am going to take a shot here with the wind blowing out to right at 13mph (although not very significant at Tigers Stadium) and Tim Welke behind the plate. Despite a rather good strike rate, the guy seems to be an under machine year after year and I think he is one of Dex's auto-umps for the over if I am not mistaken. I have this game at 10.3, so not a ton of value here or the full run I usually like, however, we do win on a final score of 10 and I think we hit that number today. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Yankees/Red Sox under (9)(+100) 1x (Locked)

This game may end up getting postponed like some other East Coast games, but if not I really like the under here. Generally, I stay away from unders when rain is in forecast, but we have CC going tonight who generally pitches the Red Sox lineup tough and he has a rubber arm with the ability to come back from rain delays and pitch well. On the other side, Bard may be the best Red Sox pitcher at the moment and he really does have nasty stuff. I think he pitches well tonight. Obviously the Boston bullpen is a concern, but after such a disastrous effort yesterday, the whole world thinks this one is going to go over. Instead, I like the ESPN Sunday night under trend in this game. This will be an intense game with the whole world watching and when you have two solid pitchers, these types of games tend to stay under. If you look at the advanced numbers for these pitchers, both are very impressive and my model loves Bard even though he has been a reliever. The guy has a lifetime SIERA under 2.99 and he has the rare ability to throw strikeouts with a K% always over 21% and get ground balls with a GB/FB generally over 1.5. The wind is blowing directly in from center at about 15mph predicted by gametime and the ump is a bit of an enigma in Tschida. I suppose you could say he is more of an over ump, but he has had some big under seasons. I will take my chance with CC and Bard on the mound today having this game set at 8 even and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

OMG, this bet on the Rangers/Tigers over keeps getting worse and worse. Win or lose, this has turned out to be the worst play of my season so far from an expected value perspective. Getting this one at 9.5 -105 on the over when I can get over 9 at +105 right now is so -ev. Ugh....I guess you can't beat the closer everytime but I did not forsee such a sharp move on the under in this game. Perhaps the sharpies are buying into the unfamiliarity angle big time with Smyly or they think the colder weather may hamper the warm-weather loving Rangers. I'm not sure but I am very surprised with all the line movement favoring the under. I still think this one goes over, but I should have definitely waited to play this one. Win or lose, this turned out to be a long term -ev play.

[Kurtz]

Tim Welke behind the dish in Detroit