LTA's MLB Plays

**Full-Grown** · 04-19-12, 11:11 AM

Hey LTA, how much does the avoid the sweep factor play into your decision if at all?

**TC Woods** · 04-19-12, 11:12 AM

Originally posted by apurvaas

FYI
Reds/Cards game trending under due to both Berkman and Freese being OUT.. I was on over 7.5 for 1u and adding 1U more on 7
BOL

I'm not sure what to do, I'll wait for "live" betting...

**Catchn_Picks** · 04-19-12, 11:30 AM

Originally posted by apurvaas

FYI
Reds/Cards game trending under due to both Berkman and Freese being OUT.. I was on over 7.5 for 1u and adding 1U more on 7
BOL

Damn...that is a huge difference... I didn't think they would ever allow themselves to get sided by dropping to 7 even with the extra juice.

Nice play..gl.

**G-manFan** · 04-19-12, 12:32 PM

Originally posted by Full-Grown

Hey LTA, how much does the avoid the sweep factor play into your decision if at all?

Not to speak for LTA but I've asked this question before. Qualitative factors (ie sweep, rivals) have little bearing on his decisions. For baseball, its more about the quantitative factors and measurable stats. They give you the edge on finding value in a play. He said it a lot more eloquently than I just did but I hope you get the point.

**Manel88** · 04-19-12, 12:32 PM

Originally posted by RockyTopGambler

Normal juice is 10% or -110. Right now the under is -120 or 20% in most places while the over is paying out even money. Thus, the juice is on the under.

Edit: Currently it's back to juice on the over on most, but I assume it was around -120 when LTA posted. Either way it answers your questions

So the juice is always on the lower odds? Can you give me an example with decimal odds? Thanks

**Les_Nuts** · 04-19-12, 12:41 PM

Originally posted by Manel88

So the juice is always on the lower odds? Can you give me an example with decimal odds? Thanks

Usually a standard NBA spread is priced at 1.91 (-110 in US odds) on both sides, so there is 10% juice(you have to put on 110 to win 100). Sometimes baseball lines may be priced differently, for example on the market Texas/Detroit over 9 runs, I have a book that has 1.83 on the over and 2.00 on the under. Here they are juicing the over as they are giving you a worse price, you have to put 120 on the win 100 (the 20 is the juice) but if you take the under then you only have to put 100 on to win 100 so there is no juice. Not a great explanation as its harder to explain in decimal terms

**celticsboy** · 04-19-12, 12:56 PM

damn the cubs/marlins already over smh

**Manel88** · 04-19-12, 01:08 PM

Originally posted by Les_Nuts

Usually a standard NBA spread is priced at 1.91 (-110 in US odds) on both sides, so there is 10% juice(you have to put on 110 to win 100). Sometimes baseball lines may be priced differently, for example on the market Texas/Detroit over 9 runs, I have a book that has 1.83 on the over and 2.00 on the under. Here they are juicing the over as they are giving you a worse price, you have to put 120 on the win 100 (the 20 is the juice) but if you take the under then you only have to put 100 on to win 100 so there is no juice. Not a great explanation as its harder to explain in decimal terms

Okay, thank you

**Marigold HD** · 04-19-12, 01:29 PM

Getting raped tailing you fuks

**BigBoi** · 04-19-12, 01:34 PM

I think Matt Kemp wants the MVP right now.

**TC Woods** · 04-19-12, 01:43 PM

Originally posted by Marigold HD

Getting raped tailing you fuks

GTFO then

**RoadDog** · 04-19-12, 01:51 PM

Rough morning.

**Love The Action** · 04-19-12, 02:20 PM

Originally posted by RoadDog

Rough morning.

Not really. It was one loss with two plays pending. Whats the big deal. Cant win them all.

**Dmil** · 04-19-12, 02:36 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Not really. It was one loss with two plays pending. Whats the big deal. Cant win them all.

thanks 4 Cincy over LTA
Winnah

**ebbearsfb1** · 04-19-12, 02:41 PM

How is anyone getting rapped? Or having a rough day so far.. la up 4 to 3... bad base running or it could be more... reds over already hit... and cubs lost.... at worse it would be 1 and 2... or 2 and 1...

**speez11** · 04-19-12, 02:41 PM

Lol @tc woods

**ebbearsfb1** · 04-19-12, 02:50 PM

Unbelievable play by hairston that was sweet

**apurvaas** · 04-19-12, 03:33 PM

2-1 so far... how can it be rough day?

**absolutkaos** · 04-19-12, 03:37 PM

nice start to the day LTA....thanks for the early plays (gotta love those '+ money' plays that cash!!)

**WVU9494** · 04-19-12, 03:38 PM

Did I miss something by the rough day comments? At $300 per unit LTA just made me $370 today on the 3 games.

**mikea33** · 04-19-12, 03:44 PM

lol u guys r nuts.

some of you should take my adviced of cutting your unit sizes DOWN.

If you cant withstand a couple days worth of losing, you will really have a tough time gambling at the unit size you are risking.

Trust me.

**BiffTFinancial** · 04-19-12, 04:02 PM

No Berkman, no Freese, no Molina, no matter. cash Reds/Cards over. nice start to the day, LTA. wish i could've gotten over my Harangaphobia and backed Big Blue. Matt Kemp may be my favorite non-Indian.

**815Sox** · 04-19-12, 04:27 PM

Hey guys! I've had a ton of stuff going on (good stuff) so I haven't been playing that many games (a few hockey ones, did okay this year) but now I am ready for baseball!

**Love The Action** · 04-19-12, 04:37 PM

Originally posted by Marigold HD

Getting raped tailing you fuks

You must be really bad at this because I just gave you two out of three winners and the one loss was by a half run. How you can still lose despite being given winners is beyond me. Thanks for that great contribution though. No need to ever stop by this thread again.....

**WVU9494** · 04-19-12, 04:38 PM

I think that info is obvious

Originally posted by mikea33

lol u guys r nuts.

some of you should take my adviced of cutting your unit sizes DOWN.

If you cant withstand a couple days worth of losing, you will really have a tough time gambling at the unit size you are risking.

Trust me.

**Love The Action** · 04-19-12, 04:42 PM

Originally posted by 815Sox

Hey guys! I've had a ton of stuff going on (good stuff) so I haven't been playing that many games (a few hockey ones, did okay this year) but now I am ready for baseball!

Welcome back 815! Lookin forward to your contribution.....

**mikea33** · 04-19-12, 04:45 PM

Originally posted by WVU9494

I think that info is obvious

Yes.
Its called poor money management...the most common gambling problem and I have learned first hand

**Catchn_Picks** · 04-19-12, 04:57 PM

The official name is "Gambler's Ruin". Look it up.

It is the number one reason why bookies/casinos win and players lose, and it is rare that any player even knows what it is.

**ebbearsfb1** · 04-19-12, 05:06 PM

its called some posters are rooster heads..

it wasnt like lta had a 5x play on under cubs and the other ones were 1x..

everything was the same

**mikea33** · 04-19-12, 05:23 PM

I agree some posters are rooster heads....all I said was if you cant withstand losing 2-3 units you are obviously using too high of a unit $ wise................I was not bashing LTA as he knows I am one of his biggest followers lol

Thanks catchn picks learned alot reading a lot of articles on gamblers ruin

**Love The Action** · 04-19-12, 05:38 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/19/2012

Play #1

Cubs/Marlins under (7.5)(-120) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Astros ML (+150) 1x (Locked)

Play #3

Dodgers ML (+128) 1x (Locked)

Good luck.

Play #4

Blue Jays ML (-110) 1x (Locked)

I am high on alvarez and think hell boy struggles tonight. No time for any writeups Good luck.

Play #5

Reds/Cardinals over (7.5) 1x (Locked)

Jumping on this now at -110 before the juice gets even higher. This is my first over of the season and its well deserved with arroyo and wainwright who is still not himself. I have this game set at 8.7 and we cash on a final score of 8. The wind is blowing out and the ball carries better during the day in stl. Gorman is the ump with a higher strike rate but a long term record that favors the over. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Braves ML (-125) 1x (Locked)

I should have locked this in last night at -118 but thought it would go back down. With upton and young out of the az lineup that is not happening. However, I love minor who has the unfamiliarity factor working and I expect the braves to have the advantage on offense as well. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the braves for 1x. Good luck.

**Love The Action** · 04-19-12, 06:07 PM

Final lean on indians/seattle under but still undecided...

**absolutkaos** · 04-19-12, 06:31 PM

nice start in Houston game...

**PolishSensation** · 04-19-12, 06:48 PM

Perfect throw from Bautista, Arencibia can't catch the ball at home. As a result, Rays score 2.

**notoriouz** · 04-19-12, 08:11 PM

Thanks LTA i parlayed Dodgers ML and Reds/Cardinals over 7.5