LTA's MLB Plays

**Love The Action** · 04-15-12, 04:13 PM

Looks like Volquez is not going to get it done....disappointed in him.

**pacocn** · 04-15-12, 04:24 PM

Lta, nice call on the Reds

**pacocn** · 04-15-12, 04:25 PM

Hopefully Mavs can finish this out.

**SlickRick1382** · 04-15-12, 04:36 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Looks like Volquez is not going to get it done....disappointed in him.

Should of cashed easily.

Dodgers aren't or atleast weren't, when I was watching, hitting him well. He was just giving it away.

Hopefully Arizona holds on and we sill finish + for the day in MLB

**mikea33** · 04-15-12, 04:42 PM

dont be surprised if this LA game is close....2 more runs in 4 innings is a lot to ask for when kershaw account for half the innings....

**Love The Action** · 04-15-12, 05:27 PM

Anyone know why they pulled Kershaw in the sixth inning with only 89 pitches?

**absolutkaos** · 04-15-12, 05:29 PM

J Guzman walked.	1	4
N Hundley walked, J Guzman to second.	1	4
W Venable sacrificed to pitcher, J Guzman to third, N Hundley to second.	1	4
A Parrino walked.	1	4
O Hudson singled to left, J Guzman scored, N Hundley to third, A Parrino to second.	2	4
J Lindblom relieved C Kershaw.	2	4

**JM92** · 04-15-12, 05:34 PM

3-2, yet some more profit!

**Love The Action** · 04-15-12, 05:49 PM

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/15/2012 Recap

3 - 2 = +0.78x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

21 - 16 = +5.6x

Good luck on Monday!

**WVU9494** · 04-15-12, 06:44 PM

I wish you the best sir.

Originally posted by meader99

When I offered you up to go ahead and post your plays instead of cominginhere blmaing others for your losses, I really meant start your own thread.

**SlickRick1382** · 04-15-12, 06:52 PM

Good stuff bud !!!!

Sucks knowing that had Kershaw not blown that inning we still could of cashed that Under ....

But a + day is a + day ...

Onto the next one !!!!

**Manel88** · 04-15-12, 07:45 PM

Hi guys,

Sorry to disturb you but i have a question that will probably make you laugh but i'll make it anyway as i try to get better everyday.

It is about the juice on the odds...for example: If i have an over @ 2.10 (47.6%) and the under @ 1.826 (54.8%), the sum of both probabilities is higher than 100%...i guess the diference between 100% and the sum of both probabilities is the juice, is that right?

If so, how do you define where is the juice? Only after studying the game and make your prediction to see what odds are "higher" than it should be right?

**bmur714** · 04-15-12, 08:11 PM

Thank you LTA for another week in the black!!!

**SlickRick1382** · 04-15-12, 08:45 PM

Originally posted by Manel88

Hi guys,

Sorry to disturb you but i have a question that will probably make you laugh but i'll make it anyway as i try to get better everyday.

It is about the juice on the odds...for example: If i have an over @ 2.10 (47.6%) and the under @ 1.826 (54.8%), the sum of both probabilities is higher than 100%...i guess the diference between 100% and the sum of both probabilities is the juice, is that right?

If so, how do you define where is the juice? Only after studying the game and make your prediction to see what odds are "higher" than it should be right?

Juice is what you have to pay over your bet amount. If you're betting -110 (110 to win 100) then $10 is the juice.

Juice = Vig

**Manel88** · 04-15-12, 08:56 PM

Originally posted by SlickRick1382

Juice is what you have to pay over your bet amount. If you're betting -110 (110 to win 100) then $10 is the juice.

Juice = Vig

Thanks for the explanation but i dont understand :S is there a way to determine where the juice is? or it is only by studying the game and find the "value"?

**BigBoi** · 04-15-12, 08:57 PM

Shields +105 tomorrow in Boston. Tampa trying to avoid a 4 game sweep. too easy?

**jas19illini** · 04-15-12, 09:08 PM

If anyone is interested in pulling their own MLB data for analysis purposes, check out the book Baseball Hacks. Very good stuff.

**SlickRick1382** · 04-15-12, 10:33 PM

Originally posted by Manel88

Thanks for the explanation but i dont understand :S is there a way to determine where the juice is? or it is only by studying the game and find the "value"?

Not sure I quite understand what you're asking / what your're trying to determine.

Juice is in every spread and total, both sides... When you play for example a total score, example over under 8.5. You're paying -110 for one hundred for both sides (on average). Sometimes it may be -115 / -105 if one side is juiced over the other.

Unless your asking when its beneficial to pay extra juice for a half run on a total or whether to play it without the half run at plus odds, I don't really seem to understand your question

**Sick_in_the_Head** · 04-15-12, 10:44 PM

Tampa going up against bard tomorrow with sheilds. Gotta take them, right?

**Love The Action** · 04-15-12, 11:18 PM

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/16/2012

Play #1

Devil Rays/Red Sox under (9.5)(-120) 1x (Locked)

Here's one where I deem spending -120 for the half run is important. We have an early, get-away day game and can expect a few of the bigger hitters to sit. Meanwhile, I think we are getting decent value at this number even at -120 when you consider my model has this at 8.4 and it's going to require a total of 10 to beat us. The ump is Vanover who traditionally carries a strike rate around 63% and reinforces the under play. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

**taxe91** · 04-15-12, 11:33 PM

hey LTA, who do you expect to sit tomorrow? Last year on patriot's day the sox played all their regulars, I would be surprised if they sat someone like ortiz tomorrow considering how hot he's been. The rays could sit some regulars but being down 3-0 in a series probably isn't the best time to do that.

good play nonetheless, bard should have a better start at home providing pena and scott dont get a hold of him

**Love The Action** · 04-16-12, 08:18 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/16/2012

Play #1

Devil Rays/Red Sox under (9.5)(-120) 1x (Locked)

Here's one where I deem spending -120 for the half run is important. We have an early, get-away day game and can expect a few of the bigger hitters to sit. Meanwhile, I think we are getting decent value at this number even at -120 when you consider my model has this at 8.4 and it's going to require a total of 10 to beat us. The ump is Vanover who traditionally carries a strike rate around 63% and reinforces the under play. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Padres ML (+121) 1x (Locked]

Play #3

Pirates ML (+125) 1x (Locked)

These are two very similar plays, at similar prices, with similar value. You might be able to get a slightly better price later today, but I have a busy day of work ahead of me with an inability to watch lines and I expect to beat the closer in both. The majority will be on the other side and thats always preferable when we have the better starting pitcher on our side. I have the padres set at +111 and the pirates at +113 giving us at least ten cents of value on each play. Good luck.

**Delirium tremens** · 04-16-12, 08:24 AM

only Youk is sitting today for Boston!!

**bleedtoledo** · 04-16-12, 08:38 AM

Sounds like some drama going on in Boston this morning. Maybe the devil rays can get a win today. Boston wasn't exactly hit by Cupid's arrow regarding Valentine.

**Delirium tremens** · 04-16-12, 09:18 AM

Valentine is shaking things up.......we'll see how it works out!!

**apurvaas** · 04-16-12, 11:57 AM

I like Padres for sure.. but for Pirates, I like AZ.. so will pass on that play!

BOL bud..

Thanks for the plays

**Les_Nuts** · 04-16-12, 12:23 PM

...

**bleedtoledo** · 04-16-12, 01:39 PM

Parlayed the rays/sawx with verlander, got horrible #'s though (-125, -188). Tiges now at -174 on my book. They faced royals' Duffy three times last season, he went 0-2 with 5.6 ERA. We know verlander's a boss, and how potent Detroit O is. I'm not gonna hedge royals +1½, but might put another uni on tiges -1½ at -110, waiting til gametime though.

**Sick_in_the_Head** · 04-16-12, 04:26 PM

No more plays?

**bleedtoledo** · 04-16-12, 04:59 PM

^ dude's still getting homes from work. Plus, he has a family. Duh :P

**Redscot** · 04-16-12, 05:21 PM

Nice hit bro

. Shields was really dealing today.

Pedroia on Valentine, regarding Youkilis comments (paraphrasing) "Not really sure what he was talking about there, he'll learn that's not the way we do things around here". That's a player talking about the manager, not hiding behind anonymous quote. I find that very interesting......

**Laissez Faire** · 04-16-12, 06:43 PM

thanks for the early pick

**Love The Action** · 04-16-12, 07:53 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

Nice hit bro

. Shields was really dealing today.

Pedroia on Valentine, regarding Youkilis comments (paraphrasing) "Not really sure what he was talking about there, he'll learn that's not the way we do things around here". That's a player talking about the manager, not hiding behind anonymous quote. I find that very interesting......

Pedroia was letting Valentine know right away that the head games bullshit is not going to fly in that clubhouse of veterans who have all been on the team together for awhile now. Those guys are going to have each others backs before they ever have Valentine's back. Valentine is coming in there thinking he's a star, when he needs to earn those players' respect first. If you read more of that quote, Pedroia said something to the effect of "that's how they might do it in Japan, but not in this clubhouse." I think that comment is very telling of what the clubhouse thinks of Valentine at the moment.

Who knows though, winning tends to cure all and if they can get on a little win streak all this BS will be forgotten.

**Redscot** · 04-16-12, 08:02 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Pedroia was letting Valentine know right away that the head games bullshit is not going to fly in that clubhouse of veterans who have all been on the team together for awhile now. Those guys are going to have each others backs before they ever have Valentine's back. Valentine is coming in there thinking he's a star, when he needs to earn those players' respect first. If you read more of that quote, Pedroia said something to the effect of "that's how they might do it in Japan, but not in this clubhouse." I think that comment is very telling of what the clubhouse thinks of Valentine at the moment.

Who knows though, winning tends to cure all and if they can get on a little win streak all this BS will be forgotten.

Yeah man, I watched the quote on TV today and it is exactly as you say. Last thing Boston players need is a manager turning the media heat up on the team,seriously. Bobby V is one of these genius/over achiever types that just can't help grating on people. He knows his shit, but his tact is seriously lacking....gonna be a very interesting season in Boston.

**Love The Action** · 04-16-12, 09:14 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/16/2012

Play #1

Devil Rays/Red Sox under (9.5)(-120) 1x (Locked)

Here's one where I deem spending -120 for the half run is important. We have an early, get-away day game and can expect a few of the bigger hitters to sit. Meanwhile, I think we are getting decent value at this number even at -120 when you consider my model has this at 8.4 and it's going to require a total of 10 to beat us. The ump is Vanover who traditionally carries a strike rate around 63% and reinforces the under play. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Padres ML (+121) 1x (Locked]

Play #3

Pirates ML (+125) 1x (Locked)

These are two very similar plays, at similar prices, with similar value. You might be able to get a slightly better price later today, but I have a busy day of work ahead of me with an inability to watch lines and I expect to beat the closer in both. The majority will be on the other side and thats always preferable when we have the better starting pitcher on our side. I have the padres set at +111 and the pirates at +113 giving us at least ten cents of value on each play. Good luck.

Play #4

Phillies ML (-108) 1x (Locked)

Good luck.