LTA's MLB Plays

[Love The Action]

I wrestled with this Phillies pick all day, but I just have to roll with Doc here at a good price based entirely on the assumption that Lincecum is still adjusting to a new style of pitching. I think Timmy will continue to be a great pitcher, but his dominate power pitching days are behind him (at least that's what he seems to be implying) and he needs to be more cerebral with superior command. If Timmy is not his old self -- and I don't think he will be seeing it is unheard of to go from 90 mph in one start and back to 93 in the next -- then this is a great value play on Doc. Neither offense is great right now, but I think Philly can score enough to win this game. Good luck.

[Redscot]

I wrestled with this Phillies pick all day, but I just have to roll with Doc here at a good price based entirely on the assumption that Lincecum is still adjusting to a new style of pitching. I think Timmy will continue to be a great pitcher, but his dominate power pitching days are behind him (at least that's what he seems to be implying) and he needs to be more cerebral with superior command. If Timmy is not his old self -- and I don't think he will be seeing it is unheard of to go from 90 mph in one start and back to 93 in the next -- then this is a great value play on Doc. Neither offense is great right now, but I think Philly can score enough to win this game. Good luck.

I did too. End of the day I think you have it right bro. Halladay vs. Lincecum atm, there is a distinct advantage. GL

[MidgetTossers]

when youre not going right as timmy is right now it doesnt help when your outfielders cant catch a fly ball..when it rains it pours..add to that some hanging breaking balls and its 4-0...another rough first inning for tim..not good

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/17/2012

Play #1

Cubs ML (+165) 1x (Locked)

This is way too much value right now for a guy in Dempster who is pitching very well with a nice track record against Miami's lineup, against Johnson who has not yet returned to top form. Similarly to Lincecum, Johnson's velocity is down but he has not made any corresponding adjustment that would allow success to continue. I think that adjustment will be made, but at this price I think backing Dempster is a no-brainer. Since 2008, Dempster has been a top-flight guy as evidenced by his peripherals during that time when he was compiling a WAR between 5.2 and 2.8, SIERA and xFIP all around 3.7, a K% around 23-25% and GB/FB around 1.3. Those are just solid numbers and he has started off hot this year. The Cubs are able to put up some runs and I think Dempster will outpitch Johnson tomorrow. I'm jumping on this one now as I expect this price to drop tomorrow morning. I have this game set at +140 and I am rolling with the Cubs for 1x. Good luck.

[Redscot]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/16/2012

Play #1

Cubs ML (+165) 1x (Locked)

This is way too much value right now for a guy in Dempster who is pitching very well with a nice track record against Miami's lineup, against Johnson who has not yet returned to top form. Similarly to Lincecum, Johnson's velocity is down but he has not made any corresponding adjustment that would allow success to continue. I think that adjustment will be made, but at this price I think backing Dempster is a no-brainer. Since 2008, Dempster has been a top-flight guy as evidenced by his peripherals during that time when he was compiling a WAR between 5.2 and 2.8, SIERA and xFIP all around 3.7, a K% around 23-25% and GB/FB around 1.3. Those are just solid numbers and he has started off hot this year. The Cubs are able to put up some runs and I think Dempster will outpitch Johnson tomorrow. I'm jumping on this one now as I expect this price to drop tomorrow morning. I have this game set at +140 and I am rolling with the Cubs for 1x. Good luck.

I have backed Demp. in every start thus far this year, playing either side or under. He has shown thus far that last years numbers were skewed.

[Love The Action]

I have backed Demp. in every start thus far this year, playing either side or under. He has shown thus far that last years numbers were skewed.

Yep, I've had plays on both unders with him and I think you also played the side once too.

[Redscot]

Yep, I've had plays on both unders with him and I think you also played the side once too.

Is he this years Felipe Paulino . We rode that scrub for a good stretch last year.

[Redscot]

Holy meltdown in Wsox pen tonight. Easy to 2nd guess now, but not sure about Ventura's approach to it this spring. Shrouded it in mystery, with some good veteran arms, and goes with the no name, no track record youngster. Time will tell.

[Love The Action]

Holy meltdown in Wsox pen tonight. Easy to 2nd guess now, but not sure about Ventura's approach to it this spring. Shrouded it in mystery, with some good veteran arms, and goes with the no name, no track record youngster. Time will tell.

Yeah right....Ventura has pretty much gotten a pass so far here in Chicago. People are pretty ho-hum about the hire. I am going to reserve judgment, but I thought they should have gone with more experience and groom Robin some more. That's not Kenny's style though....he's always got to pull a stunner.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/17/2012

Play #1

Cubs ML (+165) 1x (Locked)

This is way too much value right now for a guy in Dempster who is pitching very well with a nice track record against Miami's lineup, against Johnson who has not yet returned to top form. Similarly to Lincecum, Johnson's velocity is down but he has not made any corresponding adjustment that would allow success to continue. I think that adjustment will be made, but at this price I think backing Dempster is a no-brainer. Since 2008, Dempster has been a top-flight guy as evidenced by his peripherals during that time when he was compiling a WAR between 5.2 and 2.8, SIERA and xFIP all around 3.7, a K% around 23-25% and GB/FB around 1.3. Those are just solid numbers and he has started off hot this year. The Cubs are able to put up some runs and I think Dempster will outpitch Johnson tomorrow. I'm jumping on this one now as I expect this price to drop tomorrow morning. I have this game set at +140 and I am rolling with the Cubs for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Dodgers/Brewers under (7.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

I think Billinsley will return to form of a few years ago when he was a 4ish WAR guy as opposed to last year's 2.1. He's already had two nice performances and despite getting shelled by Milwaukee in the past, I think he performs well. He's another well-rounded pitcher that I like to back because he can get the strikeout and ground ball outs as evidenced by his consistent K% and GB/FB above 20% and 1.3 respectively. On the other side, Gallardo had a tough opening start but rebounded well in his last start earning us some cash with the under between him and Dempster. Gallardo is similar to Billingsley, only better with consistent SIERA and xFIP in the mid 3's and there's no reason to think we see a huge regression this season with his BABIP over .291 for the previous two season. I have this game set at 6.48 giving us just over a full run of value and requiring a final score of 8 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/17/2012

Play #1

Cubs ML (+165) 1x (Locked)

This is way too much value right now for a guy in Dempster who is pitching very well with a nice track record against Miami's lineup, against Johnson who has not yet returned to top form. Similarly to Lincecum, Johnson's velocity is down but he has not made any corresponding adjustment that would allow success to continue. I think that adjustment will be made, but at this price I think backing Dempster is a no-brainer. Since 2008, Dempster has been a top-flight guy as evidenced by his peripherals during that time when he was compiling a WAR between 5.2 and 2.8, SIERA and xFIP all around 3.7, a K% around 23-25% and GB/FB around 1.3. Those are just solid numbers and he has started off hot this year. The Cubs are able to put up some runs and I think Dempster will outpitch Johnson tomorrow. I'm jumping on this one now as I expect this price to drop tomorrow morning. I have this game set at +140 and I am rolling with the Cubs for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Dodgers/Brewers under (7.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

I think Billinsley will return to form of a few years ago when he was a 4ish WAR guy as opposed to last year's 2.1. He's already had two nice performances and despite getting shelled by Milwaukee in the past, I think he performs well. He's another well-rounded pitcher that I like to back because he can get the strikeout and ground ball outs as evidenced by his consistent K% and GB/FB above 20% and 1.3 respectively. On the other side, Gallardo had a tough opening start but rebounded well in his last start earning us some cash with the under between him and Dempster. Gallardo is similar to Billingsley, only better with consistent SIERA and xFIP in the mid 3's and there's no reason to think we see a huge regression this season with his BABIP over .291 for the previous two season. I have this game set at 6.48 giving us just over a full run of value and requiring a final score of 8 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Devil Rays/Blue Jays under (8) 1x (Locked)

I think this is a good spot for a sneaky under and I think we see this price drop tomorrow so I'm jumping on this at -110. I am fond of Niemann despite his durability and endurance issues. He struggles after his 75th pitch so if he is inefficient, then we are in trouble. However, I think he fares well tomorrow and continues to have a successful season. Last season, this guy made us quite a bit of money on unders after the all-star break and I'm going to take a shot here opposite Romero. RR has dominated the TB lineup over his career and there's no reason to think that won't continue on Tuesday considering they are without Upton and struggling to score runs right now. In fact, despite both teams playing to more overs than unders, neither team is hitting all that well right now (both hitting .220's against right handed hitting so far). I have this game set 7.04 giving us almost a full run of value and and requiring a final score of 9 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[XGamer]

Play #4

Phillies ML (-108) 1x (Locked)

Good luck.

Misses it again! But great work!

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/17/2012

Play #1

Cubs ML (+165) 1x (Locked)

This is way too much value right now for a guy in Dempster who is pitching very well with a nice track record against Miami's lineup, against Johnson who has not yet returned to top form. Similarly to Lincecum, Johnson's velocity is down but he has not made any corresponding adjustment that would allow success to continue. I think that adjustment will be made, but at this price I think backing Dempster is a no-brainer. Since 2008, Dempster has been a top-flight guy as evidenced by his peripherals during that time when he was compiling a WAR between 5.2 and 2.8, SIERA and xFIP all around 3.7, a K% around 23-25% and GB/FB around 1.3. Those are just solid numbers and he has started off hot this year. The Cubs are able to put up some runs and I think Dempster will outpitch Johnson tomorrow. I'm jumping on this one now as I expect this price to drop tomorrow morning. I have this game set at +140 and I am rolling with the Cubs for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Dodgers/Brewers under (7.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

I think Billinsley will return to form of a few years ago when he was a 4ish WAR guy as opposed to last year's 2.1. He's already had two nice performances and despite getting shelled by Milwaukee in the past, I think he performs well. He's another well-rounded pitcher that I like to back because he can get the strikeout and ground ball outs as evidenced by his consistent K% and GB/FB above 20% and 1.3 respectively. On the other side, Gallardo had a tough opening start but rebounded well in his last start earning us some cash with the under between him and Dempster. Gallardo is similar to Billingsley, only better with consistent SIERA and xFIP in the mid 3's and there's no reason to think we see a huge regression this season with his BABIP over .291 for the previous two season. I have this game set at 6.48 giving us just over a full run of value and requiring a final score of 8 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Devil Rays/Blue Jays under (8) 1x (Locked)

I think this is a good spot for a sneaky under and I think we see this price drop tomorrow so I'm jumping on this at -110. I am fond of Niemann despite his durability and endurance issues. He struggles after his 75th pitch so if he is inefficient, then we are in trouble. However, I think he fares well tomorrow and continues to have a successful season. Last season, this guy made us quite a bit of money on unders after the all-star break and I'm going to take a shot here opposite Romero. RR has dominated the TB lineup over his career and there's no reason to think that won't continue on Tuesday considering they are without Upton and struggling to score runs right now. In fact, despite both teams playing to more overs than unders, neither team is hitting all that well right now (both hitting .220's against right handed hitting so far). I have this game set 7.04 giving us almost a full run of value and and requiring a final score of 9 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Indians ML (-120) 1x (Locked)

I find it interesting that the -1.5 RL is only at +130 with the ML at -120. Usually, you would get a better value on a runline at this moneyline price. Hmm....I wonder why that is. Anyway, we will backing Masterson at reasonable prices all year long as my model loves this guy and what's not to love with his rare ability to get ground balls with a lifetime GB/FB over 2, a lifetime SIERA, FIP, xFIP and tERA all under 3.8, K% of 18% and lifetime BABIP over .3 showing this guy has not been the product of luck. Masterson will be facing Millwood and his 37 year old body that actually pitched well in providing a quality start in his game. However, I don't think he will fare well in this game facing an Indians lineup that knows what to expect from him. I do worry that the Indians lineup is pretty weak at the moment, but I really don't have a lot of confidence in Millwood in this game. I have the Indians set at -125 giving us only 5 cents of value, but I think this one might close in the high -120's or more. Masterson is due for a nice bouneback after a short outting against the White Sox. I think he leads the Indians to the victory and I am rolling with Cleveland for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/16/2012 Recap

3 - 1 = +2.21x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

24 - 17 = +7.81x

Lets just stay consistent. We have four plays already locked in for Tuesday. Good luck.

[HarbaughTilting]

Congratulations for your solid start to the season.

About that Cleveland game. I've read that Masterson struggles with Lefties. Do you think the Mariners will be able to adjust to this? With Millwood providing a few runs himself would you consider the over 7 in that game?

Keep up the good work!

[Redscot]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/16/2012 Recap

3 - 1 = +2.21x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

24 - 17 = +7.81x

Lets just stay consistent. We have four plays already locked in for Tuesday. Good luck.

Great start bro...keep it rolling!

[Laissez Faire]

looking forward to a good day LTA....ended up hitting BIG parlay due to inclusion of your padres and phillies plays along with rays / sox under play yesterday

again...love tailing this thread and I give much respect where it is due....if I had a little more money management sense, would easily be up over 20K right now....but I'm learning

[bleedtoledo]

Rays jays moved to 9. Dodgers, 7. Price on tribe moved down a few percent, too. More than 20% movement in our favor on cubs, hope everyone was able to get in last night. Thanks LTA!

*edit, cubs just shot back up to +159

[apurvaas]

Play #3

Devil Rays/Blue Jays under (8) 1x (Locked)

I think this is a good spot for a sneaky under and I think we see this price drop tomorrow so I'm jumping on this at -110. I am fond of Niemann despite his durability and endurance issues. He struggles after his 75th pitch so if he is inefficient, then we are in trouble. However, I think he fares well tomorrow and continues to have a successful season. Last season, this guy made us quite a bit of money on unders after the all-star break and I'm going to take a shot here opposite Romero. RR has dominated the TB lineup over his career and there's no reason to think that won't continue on Tuesday considering they are without Upton and struggling to score runs right now. In fact, despite both teams playing to more overs than unders, neither team is hitting all that well right now (both hitting .220's against right handed hitting so far). I have this game set 7.04 giving us almost a full run of value and and requiring a final score of 9 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Line is Under 8.5 at this point.. Looks like over got hit hard!

[Kurtz]

Devil Rays/Blue Jays 9 @ 5Dimes.

[Love The Action]

I am beating the closing line over 75% of the time so far this season.

Unfortunately, it looks like the rays/tor under will be in the 25% minority. I don't think the market views niemann as highly as I do. Thats ok, you cant beat the closer 100%. It was a bad long term play win or lose, but that doesnt mean it wont cash. We'll just have to wait and see.

I do find it funny how people are so quick to note when the market moves against us as opposed to when it moves in our favor. No one mentioned that the other total moved in our favor big time. I think ive spoiled some of you too much

[speez11]

Following LTA for MLB as well with NBA gl tonight!

[bleedtoledo]

Sorry, just like to analyze the movement during the day. Would you say it's safe to assume around 90% of that movement is due simply to money coming in on either side? In lieu of a long search, what's the name of that book you've recommended for people learning sports investing?

[apurvaas]

I am beating the closing line over 75% of the time so far this season.

Unfortunately, it looks like the rays/tor under will be in the 25% minority. I don't think the market views niemann as highly as I do. Thats ok, you cant beat the closer 100%. It was a bad long term play win or lose, but that doesnt mean it wont cash. We'll just have to wait and see.

I do find it funny how people are so quick to note when the market moves against us as opposed to when it moves in our favor. No one mentioned that the other total moved in our favor big time. I think ive spoiled some of you too much

Lol.. no disrespect here Bud..
just wanted to let you know about the line moving against us!

BOL to us buddy!

[SlickRick1382]

I am beating the closing line over 75% of the time so far this season.

Unfortunately, it looks like the rays/tor under will be in the 25% minority. I don't think the market views niemann as highly as I do. Thats ok, you cant beat the closer 100%. It was a bad long term play win or lose, but that doesnt mean it wont cash. We'll just have to wait and see.

I do find it funny how people are so quick to note when the market moves against us as opposed to when it moves in our favor. No one mentioned that the other total moved in our favor big time. I think ive spoiled some of you too much

People forget about yesterday and only remember what you can do for them now / tomorrow ....

[RoadDog]

I do find it funny how people are so quick to note when the market moves against us as opposed to when it moves in our favor. No one mentioned that the other total moved in our favor big time. I think ive spoiled some of you too much

Lose games = hearing people chirp about it for 3 hours. Win games = crickets. That's the way it goes

[Redscot]

I am beating the closing line over 75% of the time so far this season.

Unfortunately, it looks like the rays/tor under will be in the 25% minority. I don't think the market views niemann as highly as I do. Thats ok, you cant beat the closer 100%. It was a bad long term play win or lose, but that doesnt mean it wont cash. We'll just have to wait and see.

I do find it funny how people are so quick to note when the market moves against us as opposed to when it moves in our favor. No one mentioned that the other total moved in our favor big time. I think ive spoiled some of you too much

I agree LTA. I think publicly Nieman is under valued, and if anything Romero might be slightly over valued. That being said, anticipating a game under 8 runs, do you see any value in the Rays at +130ish?

[Madison]

Hey LTA. Nice work so far. Love the writeups!!!

6am Cubs first bet to stick out to me. 12pm .. I can't be really thinking about putting good money on the Cubs right? Now I see your post Hmmmm? GL, not sure where I'm headed. Card looks tough to me.

[crazed]

It is a little funny that when the line moves against us I always think to myself "Damn I should have waited". But at least 75% of the time I'm going "damn I need to check this thread more often cause I missed getting the bet in time to get the %'s that LTA got". Great work LTA keep it up.

[Kurtz]

LTA, if your model for the Devil Rays/Blue Jays is set at 7 (now giving us 2 runs of value instead of just 1) why wouldn't we add to the under play at 9 and make it multi-unit? Thanks as always for your insight.

[SlickRick1382]

Most books at 8.5 +100.

[RoadDog]

I just saw that the total is up to 9 in the Toronto game. This is absolutely baffling. The Rays never have been able to touch Romero and Niemann is solid against the Jays. He even pitched well at Rogers Center last season. Maybe someone knows something I dont (which is probably the case) but if this gets to 9 at my book I dont know how Im gonna be able to stop myself from taking it.

[Redscot]

Looks like Eddings with his super size it strike zone in Toronto my man, also seems roof will be closed.....good news for the under

[mikea33]

guys lta beats the closer a ton of times. somestimes the market doesnt agree. blessing in disguise sometimes...seen him take advantage of such movement, mabye a multi unit play on this one LTA?

[Kurtz]

Teixeira scratched from lineup-flu.