This is another case where I don't think the wind is that big a factor as both of these guys keep the ball on the ground at a good clip, especially Pelf. I'll never talk anyone out of an over that involves Pelf and a 7. Both teams have done well against the opposing pitcher as well.
LTA's MLB Plays
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RedscotSBR MVP
- 05-16-11
- 2571
#5741Comment -
tonyp0387SBR Wise Guy
- 01-11-10
- 617
#5742Good luck lta !!!!!Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#5743Another positive about the Tampa play is the fact that Doubront probably want go too deep in the game and we'll get to the fleshy part of the Sox bull pen.
A couple of pitchers I think could be poised for good days today are Beachy and Detwiler.
Heading into the 2007 MLB Draft, Detwiler was seen as the second best lefty available — behind David Price. Detwiler quietly gave up 3 or less runs in 8 of his last 9 starts last season. His control is what has dogged him, but I think he has matured a bit in that department.
Beachy will be eager to get his first start behind him. He fly's under the radar with all the Braves young pitching prospects, but thus far has gotten results. His peripheral numbers were even better than his surprising era last year.
Didn't get my Pitt. over yesterday (no Posey didn't help), although it looked good early. Perhaps I am a glutton for punishment but I like it again today at first glance. Also think the Pitt side has value, Correia has been a road warrior and I think Vogelsong comes back down to earth this year (2.78 era last year)
I kinda like K.C. at plus money at home in a bad blood game.
I think the yank/Angels pitching match up is almost a wash, so getting +160 ish is tempting. Williams came back to the league with a cutter (which has become the en vogue pitch over the last couple of years and saved some careers).
Still looking at the card, just some initial thoughts here. Looking forward to the rest of your card/thoughts LTA and co.
I like both Beach and Detwiler as sleeper options, just not today. I like them when they are going against other top line starters for a possible under option and because they will have more value as the big dog. Beachy is juiced up pretty high and I don't see any value in the -140's. Although I do like Detwiler overall, I lean to Leake and the Reds today. The Reds desperately need a win and I think Leake is primed for a 3.9 ERA, 13ish win type season. Even though most of the value was snatched up immediately upon the open, I have this game at -105/-105 and I can get +101. Philips should be back for Cincy and they historically hit lefties well. I would like to see some more plus money come Cincy's way before deciding.
KC huh? Interesting....I just don't know what Ubaldo is going to bring this year. It seems like there's a lot of one-sided Cleveland money so far driving up that price. KC could very well be a sneaky play. However, can we really trust Mendoza? You've mentioned smoke and mirrors before and this guy fits that description to a tee.
Interesting Angels lean. I wonder if Williams and Nova can keep it to 9 or under....
I really like the Cahill/Pomeranz matchup for a sneaky under, but still have more work to do.
Good luck today buddyComment -
RedscotSBR MVP
- 05-16-11
- 2571
#5744thanks, Red. i have watched a few Marlins home games, watched all of last night's (had the under - bah). the field is absolutely immense. a couple of reasons that i'm considering the over: Danley behind the plate, Astros hitters being really patient this year as compared to last (seeing a lot more pitches), Happ, and the fact that i think that the Marlins are adjusting to the field and not trying to hit balls over the fence but rather line them to the gaps and create havoc on the basepaths (i think that the balls you mention last night were hit by Astros as i recall - the home team should realize by now that trying to hit it out to CF is a waste of time). well, i hate baseball overs anyway, especially on Sunday, so doesn't take much to convince me to pass on one.Comment -
MadisonSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-16-11
- 6442
#5745This is another case where I don't think the wind is that big a factor as both of these guys keep the ball on the ground at a good clip, especially Pelf. I'll never talk anyone out of an over that involves Pelf and a 7. Both teams have done well against the opposing pitcher as well.Comment -
RedscotSBR MVP
- 05-16-11
- 2571
#5746I should have waited and got a better price on TB this morning by a few cents, but I still think it closes at -119 or more.
I like both Beach and Detwiler as sleeper options, just not today. I like them when they are going against other top line starters for a possible under option and because they will have more value as the big dog. Beachy is juiced up pretty high and I don't see any value in the -140's. Although I do like Detwiler overall, I lean to Leake and the Reds today. The Reds desperately need a win and I think Leake is primed for a 3.9 ERA, 13ish win type season. Even though most of the value was snatched up immediately upon the open, I have this game at -105/-105 and I can get +101. Philips should be back for Cincy and they historically hit lefties well. I would like to see some more plus money come Cincy's way before deciding.
KC huh? Interesting....I just don't know what Ubaldo is going to bring this year. It seems like there's a lot of one-sided Cleveland money so far driving up that price. KC could very well be a sneaky play. However, can we really trust Mendoza? You've mentioned smoke and mirrors before and this guy fits that description to a tee.
Interesting Angels lean. I wonder if Williams and Nova can keep it to 9 or under....
I really like the Cahill/Pomeranz matchup for a sneaky under, but still have more work to do.
Good luck today buddy
Yeah Mendoza is a bit smoke and mirrors, but in his case I think he pitches to contact. His FB is 91-92 and he keeps it low and heavy inducing lots of ground balls. To use Collmenter as a counter point, he relies solely on deception, something that I think can eventually be adapted too and timed based on his 87-88 mph fastball and living high in the strike zone.
Have a great and profitable day everyone, off to the countryside to sip on some Rum all day and eat some roast piggy, next time Red checks in he'll be feeling no pain.
Comment -
BiffTFinancialSBR Posting Legend
- 01-29-09
- 22670
#5747Hanley crushed a ball to center and it died pre-warning track. I totally agree that they have the lineup to take advantage of the park though. Reyes and Bonifacio should put up 30+ triples combined and Gabby is a line drive hitter. I have also been impressed with Houston's patience (Nationals too in this department) thus far this year..Even Schafer was working counts..J.D. Martinez exemplified this approach too last night, was great seeing all his past coaches, family and friends at the game.Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#5748MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/15/2012
Play #1
Devil Rays (-115) 1x (Locked)
Not a huge value play, but we are getting 5 cents as I have this one set at -120. This play is all about a dominate pitcher in the making who is on his first trip around the league. You will find me backing Moore a lot as long the price is reasonable and in this case I think we're getting a decent price. TB desperately needs a win to avoid the sweep and most of the guy on TB have seen Doubront at least once while Boston is much more unfamiliar with Moore's nastiness. The ump in this game is Gorman who is not friendly to the home team with an 0-2 w/l record for the home team this year and 12-21 last season. I have this game set at -120 giving us 5 cents of value and I am rolling with the Devil Rays for 1x. Good luck.
Play #2
Padres/Dodgers under (6.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)
I expect this one to drop to 6 tomorrow so I'm locking it up now. We have Volquez who has fared well against this Dodgers lineup in the past with a 2.25 ERA, BAA under .260 and a WHIP of 1.17. Kershaw is Kershaw and at the very least you can expect a quality start if not better game in and game out. Plus, Kershaw has dominated this SD lineup in his time with a ERA of 2.2, WHIP of 1.09, BAA under .200 and OPS under .600. The ump is Dale Scott who generally favors the under with a high strike rate in the 63% range give or take. I have this game set at 5.4 giving us over 1 one run of value and it's going to take a final score of 7 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.
Reds ML (+103) 1x (Locked)
The Reds lineup just came out and the Reds have Phillips, Ludwick and Rolen all returning after either rest or injury. You add that to Bruce and Votto and this offense should show some life today. Over the last couple of seasons, Cincy has killed left handers and I expect some nice offensive production today. I also like the over in this game, but I may pass because of Leake. I think this is a big game for this kid and I expect him to be right up there with Cueto and Latos this year for team wins. If the Reds are going to be successful this season, I feel a lot of the weight will be pulled by Leake who I project to win around 13 games with an ERA around 3.9. Leake managed a 1.5 WAR last season over 167 innings with a SIERA and xFIP under 3.77, a K% of 16% and a GB/FB of 1.5. The kid is well-rounded and just needs to work on his command. On the other side, Detwiler has potential but the wind is blowing out and I think Cincy knocks him around today in a must-win game for them. Detwiler faced Cincy last season and was hit hard, especially byy Philips, Rolen and Votto. I would not be surprised to see the same happen today as Cincy tries to avoid the four game sweep. I have this game set at -105 for each team, so I will take the 8 cents in value and expect to see Cincy get more expensive as the morning progresses. I am rolling with the Reds for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
ebbearsfb1SBR Posting Legend
- 12-07-08
- 18815
#5749Good work...lots of good info in here from good posters... maybe I missed it but do you ever bet more than 1 x?Comment -
pacocnSBR Posting Legend
- 07-05-10
- 12934
#5750Anyone have any information on Tom Hallion he most likely will be the Ump behind
the plate in Philly. Both teams Mets and Phillies have hit the opppossing pitchers
very well. The under is at 7 and is being juiced hard (-135) any thoughts?Comment -
Catchn_PicksSBR MVP
- 09-02-11
- 2984
#5751
Don't mean to step on anyone here but anybody can answer this question.
Yes, if you skim the thread you will find many multi unit plays...especially when LTA's model is further from the betting line. The NBA thread has more examples as the Baseball season has just begun.
And they often can be dead-leeee.
BOLComment -
Catchn_PicksSBR MVP
- 09-02-11
- 2984
#5752
Hallion, Tom - NEW YORK/PHILADELPHIA
2011 - 16-15 - 9.91 rpg
2010 - 14-19 - 8.51 rpg
2009 - 16-14 - 8.91 rpg
Looks like his runs per game is up last year. Home/away is average.Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#5753I have a scale of 1x to 5x (1x = $525 or more). When I make plays over 1x, they are most often in the 2x-3x range. Only when I know that I have an increased edge or expected value will I raise my stake. I hit over 65% of my multiple unit wagers last season and expect to better that this season. However, I do plan on being more aggressive this year which may lead to more multiple unit wagers overall. GL.Last edited by Love The Action; 04-15-12, 10:15 AM.Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#5754I really miscalculated the line movement in the TB/Boston game. I thought sharp money would drive up Tampa's price with Moore on the mound. Perhaps they know something I don't about this one as the total seems to be rising as well. Was Moore out drinking out on the town last night or what? I don't get the line movement, but it looks like it will be one of the few plays so far this season that we did not beat the closing price. Let's hope TB can avoid the sweep irrespective of the lost value.Comment -
pacocnSBR Posting Legend
- 07-05-10
- 12934
#5755Catching thanks for the info. hopefully that helps others as well
i can see that one going up to 7.5 soon.Comment -
pacocnSBR Posting Legend
- 07-05-10
- 12934
#5756I really miscalculated the line movement in the TB/Boston game. I thought sharp money would drive up Tampa's price with Moore on the mound. Perhaps they know something I don't about this one as the total seems to be rising as well. Was Moore out drinking out on the town last night or what? I don't get the line movement, but it looks like it will be one of the few plays so far this season that we did not beat the closing price. Let's hope TB can avoid the sweep irrespective of the lost value.Comment -
G-manFanSBR High Roller
- 02-20-12
- 206
#5757I really miscalculated the line movement in the TB/Boston game. I thought sharp money would drive up Tampa's price with Moore on the mound. Perhaps they know something I don't about this one as the total seems to be rising as well. Was Moore out drinking out on the town last night or what? I don't get the line movement, but it looks like it will be one of the few plays so far this season that we did not beat the closing price. Let's hope TB can avoid the sweep irrespective of the lost value.Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#5759No that doesn't matter. Qualitative factors like that account for about 1-2% of what you should be looking at in baseball. Motivational stuff like that is cute to mention, but sucess in MLB investing is based almost entirely on quantitative factors by taking an algorhythmic approach to statistical analysis. In other words, it's all about the stats my friend. In this case, I'm projecting big things for Matt Moore this year, especially in his first trip around the league. TB should beat up on Doubront and get to that Boston pen withink 5 inning, while I expect Moore to pitch into the seventh with at least a quality start or better. GLComment -
ebbearsfb1SBR Posting Legend
- 12-07-08
- 18815
#5760I have a scale of 1x to 5x (1x = $525 or more). When I make plays over 1x, they are most often in the 2x-3x range. Only when I know that I have an increased edge or expected value will I raise my stake. I hit over 65% of my multiple unit wagers last season and expect to better that this season. However, I do plan on being more aggressive this year which may lead to more multiple unit wagers overall. GL.
thanks for the info.. the reason i asked was when im on my phone its difficult to go back thru 380 pages of plays to find stuff..
great work, great analysisComment -
G-manFanSBR High Roller
- 02-20-12
- 206
#5761No that doesn't matter. Qualitative factors like that account for about 1-2% of what you should be looking at in baseball. Motivational stuff like that is cute to mention, but sucess in MLB investing is based almost entirely on quantitative factors by taking an algorhythmic approach to statistical analysis. In other words, it's all about the stats my friend. In this case, I'm projecting big things for Matt Moore this year, especially in his first trip around the league. TB should beat up on Doubront and get to that Boston pen withink 5 inning, while I expect Moore to pitch into the seventh with at least a quality start or better. GLComment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#5762MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/15/2012
Play #1
Devil Rays (-115) 1x (Locked)
Not a huge value play, but we are getting 5 cents as I have this one set at -120. This play is all about a dominate pitcher in the making who is on his first trip around the league. You will find me backing Moore a lot as long the price is reasonable and in this case I think we're getting a decent price. TB desperately needs a win to avoid the sweep and most of the guy on TB have seen Doubront at least once while Boston is much more unfamiliar with Moore's nastiness. The ump in this game is Gorman who is not friendly to the home team with an 0-2 w/l record for the home team this year and 12-21 last season. I have this game set at -120 giving us 5 cents of value and I am rolling with the Devil Rays for 1x. Good luck.
Play #2
Padres/Dodgers under (6.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)
I expect this one to drop to 6 tomorrow so I'm locking it up now. We have Volquez who has fared well against this Dodgers lineup in the past with a 2.25 ERA, BAA under .260 and a WHIP of 1.17. Kershaw is Kershaw and at the very least you can expect a quality start if not better game in and game out. Plus, Kershaw has dominated this SD lineup in his time with a ERA of 2.2, WHIP of 1.09, BAA under .200 and OPS under .600. The ump is Dale Scott who generally favors the under with a high strike rate in the 63% range give or take. I have this game set at 5.4 giving us over 1 one run of value and it's going to take a final score of 7 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.
Play #3
Reds ML (+103) 1x (Locked)
The Reds lineup just came out and the Reds have Phillips, Ludwick and Rolen all returning after either rest or injury. You add that to Bruce and Votto and this offense should show some life today. Over the last couple of seasons, Cincy has killed left handers and I expect some nice offensive production today. I also like the over in this game, but I may pass because of Leake. I think this is a big game for this kid and I expect him to be right up there with Cueto and Latos this year for team wins. If the Reds are going to be successful this season, I feel a lot of the weight will be pulled by Leake who I project to win around 13 games with an ERA around 3.9. Leake managed a 1.5 WAR last season over 167 innings with a SIERA and xFIP under 3.77, a K% of 16% and a GB/FB of 1.5. The kid is well-rounded and just needs to work on his command. On the other side, Detwiler has potential but the wind is blowing out and I think Cincy knocks him around today in a must-win game for them. Detwiler faced Cincy last season and was hit hard, especially byy Philips, Rolen and Votto. I would not be surprised to see the same happen today as Cincy tries to avoid the four game sweep. I have this game set at -105 for each team, so I will take the 8 cents in value and expect to see Cincy get more expensive as the morning progresses. I am rolling with the Reds for 1x. Good luck.
Diamondbacks/Rockies under (9)(+105) 1x (Locked)
We played the under in the first game of this series and were burned by Nicasio and Hudson. I'm hoping for better results today with Cahill and Pomeranz on the mound. The reason I like Cahill here is because he is a ground ball specialist with a lifetime GB/FB of 1.83 with 2.21 last season. With the Rockies having never faced Cahill before, I think he has that unfamiliarity factor just like Pomeranz. While Pomeranz is not quite the ground ball specialist like Cahill, the wind is blowing straight in at 15mph and the temperature is in the low 50's or high 40's with the wind chill. That's better under weather than we faced the other day. Pomeranz was the main piece in the Jiminez trade with Cleveland and he's got a big upside. AZ has not faced this guy before and I think that gives him a bit of edge just like Cahill. If you believe the limited data set for Pomeranz, I have this one set at 8 even and we're getting plus odds on the under at 9. I could play this at 9.5 -125, but I prefer to risk the push here because this is Coors Field and we have to always keep that in the back of our mind. By playing this at +105, we stand to make a little extra or at the very least avoid the big juice. Sometimes I prefer to pay the juice for the half run and sometimes I don't. In this case, I prefer to get plus odds on the under at 9 and I am doing just that for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
JM92SBR MVP
- 01-27-12
- 1140
#5763I have 9.5 on my book at - 120. Is this worth a shot? 'Cause if I get it at 9 it will be - 105 so I'm not sure where I'm losing more value.Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#5764
Comment -
JM92SBR MVP
- 01-27-12
- 1140
#5765Wow, didn't even know there was such a thing. Great help as always. I can calculate my away around nba odds for half a point but this MLB stuff still looks really raw for me.
Thanks again and good luckComment -
WVU9494SBR Sharp
- 11-14-11
- 333
#5766Good luck to all. Take Philly RL, no time for write upComment -
unitedladSBR Wise Guy
- 01-10-12
- 845
#5767Under 9 in the Arizona game is at +120 on Bet365 if anyone's interested.Comment -
mikea33SBR MVP
- 11-14-11
- 2149
#5768Got 9.5 paid 15 cents but still i like Cahill to keep em closeComment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#5769MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/15/2012
Play #1
Devil Rays (-115) 1x (Locked)
Not a huge value play, but we are getting 5 cents as I have this one set at -120. This play is all about a dominate pitcher in the making who is on his first trip around the league. You will find me backing Moore a lot as long the price is reasonable and in this case I think we're getting a decent price. TB desperately needs a win to avoid the sweep and most of the guy on TB have seen Doubront at least once while Boston is much more unfamiliar with Moore's nastiness. The ump in this game is Gorman who is not friendly to the home team with an 0-2 w/l record for the home team this year and 12-21 last season. I have this game set at -120 giving us 5 cents of value and I am rolling with the Devil Rays for 1x. Good luck.
Play #2
Padres/Dodgers under (6.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)
I expect this one to drop to 6 tomorrow so I'm locking it up now. We have Volquez who has fared well against this Dodgers lineup in the past with a 2.25 ERA, BAA under .260 and a WHIP of 1.17. Kershaw is Kershaw and at the very least you can expect a quality start if not better game in and game out. Plus, Kershaw has dominated this SD lineup in his time with a ERA of 2.2, WHIP of 1.09, BAA under .200 and OPS under .600. The ump is Dale Scott who generally favors the under with a high strike rate in the 63% range give or take. I have this game set at 5.4 giving us over 1 one run of value and it's going to take a final score of 7 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.
Play #3
Reds ML (+103) 1x (Locked)
The Reds lineup just came out and the Reds have Phillips, Ludwick and Rolen all returning after either rest or injury. You add that to Bruce and Votto and this offense should show some life today. Over the last couple of seasons, Cincy has killed left handers and I expect some nice offensive production today. I also like the over in this game, but I may pass because of Leake. I think this is a big game for this kid and I expect him to be right up there with Cueto and Latos this year for team wins. If the Reds are going to be successful this season, I feel a lot of the weight will be pulled by Leake who I project to win around 13 games with an ERA around 3.9. Leake managed a 1.5 WAR last season over 167 innings with a SIERA and xFIP under 3.77, a K% of 16% and a GB/FB of 1.5. The kid is well-rounded and just needs to work on his command. On the other side, Detwiler has potential but the wind is blowing out and I think Cincy knocks him around today in a must-win game for them. Detwiler faced Cincy last season and was hit hard, especially byy Philips, Rolen and Votto. I would not be surprised to see the same happen today as Cincy tries to avoid the four game sweep. I have this game set at -105 for each team, so I will take the 8 cents in value and expect to see Cincy get more expensive as the morning progresses. I am rolling with the Reds for 1x. Good luck.
Play #4
Diamondbacks/Rockies under (9)(+105) 1x (Locked)
We played the under in the first game of this series and were burned by Nicasio and Hudson. I'm hoping for better results today with Cahill and Pomeranz on the mound. The reason I like Cahill here is because he is a ground ball specialist with a lifetime GB/FB of 1.83 with 2.21 last season. With the Rockies having never faced Cahill before, I think he has that unfamiliarity factor just like Pomeranz. While Pomeranz is not quite the ground ball specialist like Cahill, the wind is blowing straight in at 15mph and the temperature is in the low 50's or high 40's with the wind chill. That's better under weather than we faced the other day. Pomeranz was the main piece in the Jiminez trade with Cleveland and he's got a big upside. AZ has not faced this guy before and I think that gives him a bit of edge just like Cahill. If you believe the limited data set for Pomeranz, I have this one set at 8 even and we're getting plus odds on the under at 9. I could play this at 9.5 -125, but I prefer to risk the push here because this is Coors Field and we have to always keep that in the back of our mind. By playing this at +105, we stand to make a little extra or at the very least avoid the big juice. Sometimes I prefer to pay the juice for the half run and sometimes I don't. In this case, I prefer to get plus odds on the under at 9 and I am doing just that for 1x. Good luck.
Tigers/White Sox under (8.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)
I've been waiting since the open to see if this one to get up to 9 and it hasn't even sniffed that level yet. Pinny is at -110/+100 right now and I'm going to jump on this at plus odds as well in order to avoid the juice. In fact, I expect late money to support the under with this pitching matchup. These are two guys that I expect to have really solid seasons and continue to improve. Sale is an all around stud with the ability to keep the ball on the ground and get strikeouts, while Porcello is also a ground ball specialist with a lifetime 1.73 GB/FB ratio. Both guys have also pitched very well against these lineups. The wind in Chicago is blowing very strong across the field from right to left. Barksdale is the ump and he's a long time under guy that favors the under with a high strike rate. I have this game set at 7.6 and it's going to take a final score of 9 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
G-manFanSBR High Roller
- 02-20-12
- 206
#5770Originally Posted by JM92
I have 9.5 on my book at - 120. Is this worth a shot? 'Cause if I get it at 9 it will be - 105 so I'm not sure where I'm losing more value.
I won't give you the answer because you're a smart guy and it would be more valuable to you if you figure it out on your own. I will, however, point you in the right direction....
http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tool...nt-calculator/
ThanksComment -
TC WoodsSBR MVP
- 12-17-11
- 1780
#5771Just got back home, saw the TB score... down 3
Looked into Live Betting, saw I could get TB at +425... what the hell, threw some $$$ at it.
Later edit... TB was down 4, got some more at +760, now the score id tied!
Come on RaysLast edited by TC Woods; 04-15-12, 02:29 PM.Comment -
meader99SBR MVP
- 10-30-10
- 4223
-
Les_NutsSBR Wise Guy
- 02-01-12
- 931
#5774Classic volquez start, I think this may end 5 0 dodgersComment
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