LTA's MLB Plays

[Sidetracked]

rolling with u w cubs, i love dempster....gonna try my luck with the tampa bay under too my books got 8.5 EVEN money best of luck

[Love The Action]

LTA, if your model for the Devil Rays/Blue Jays is set at 7 (now giving us 2 runs of value instead of just 1) why wouldn't we add to the under play at 9 and make it multi-unit? Thanks as always for your insight.

No....Because its too early in the season for my model to be fully functional and I rarely (almost never) add to my stake after I have locked in a play and the line moves against me. Good luck today.

[Love The Action]

Looks like Eddings with his super size it strike zone in Toronto my man, also seems roof will be closed.....good news for the under

Nice. GL

[Love The Action]

I just saw that the total is up to 9 in the Toronto game. This is absolutely baffling. The Rays never have been able to touch Romero and Niemann is solid against the Jays. He even pitched well at Rogers Center last season. Maybe someone knows something I dont (which is probably the case) but if this gets to 9 at my book I dont know how Im gonna be able to stop myself from taking it.

Good luck buddy

[HCBoone]

No Cabrera for indians tonight.

[Sidetracked]

thats a blow, i like indians play just havent locked it in...masterson should handle the mariners regardless

[Sidetracked]

bad day, had new jersey devils blow 3-0 lead on me too, not gonna go with indians play now just wait until tommorrow

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/17/2012

Play #1

Cubs ML (+165) 1x (Locked)

This is way too much value right now for a guy in Dempster who is pitching very well with a nice track record against Miami's lineup, against Johnson who has not yet returned to top form. Similarly to Lincecum, Johnson's velocity is down but he has not made any corresponding adjustment that would allow success to continue. I think that adjustment will be made, but at this price I think backing Dempster is a no-brainer. Since 2008, Dempster has been a top-flight guy as evidenced by his peripherals during that time when he was compiling a WAR between 5.2 and 2.8, SIERA and xFIP all around 3.7, a K% around 23-25% and GB/FB around 1.3. Those are just solid numbers and he has started off hot this year. The Cubs are able to put up some runs and I think Dempster will outpitch Johnson tomorrow. I'm jumping on this one now as I expect this price to drop tomorrow morning. I have this game set at +140 and I am rolling with the Cubs for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Dodgers/Brewers under (7.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

I think Billinsley will return to form of a few years ago when he was a 4ish WAR guy as opposed to last year's 2.1. He's already had two nice performances and despite getting shelled by Milwaukee in the past, I think he performs well. He's another well-rounded pitcher that I like to back because he can get the strikeout and ground ball outs as evidenced by his consistent K% and GB/FB above 20% and 1.3 respectively. On the other side, Gallardo had a tough opening start but rebounded well in his last start earning us some cash with the under between him and Dempster. Gallardo is similar to Billingsley, only better with consistent SIERA and xFIP in the mid 3's and there's no reason to think we see a huge regression this season with his BABIP over .291 for the previous two season. I have this game set at 6.48 giving us just over a full run of value and requiring a final score of 8 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Devil Rays/Blue Jays under (8) 1x (Locked)

I think this is a good spot for a sneaky under and I think we see this price drop tomorrow so I'm jumping on this at -110. I am fond of Niemann despite his durability and endurance issues. He struggles after his 75th pitch so if he is inefficient, then we are in trouble. However, I think he fares well tomorrow and continues to have a successful season. Last season, this guy made us quite a bit of money on unders after the all-star break and I'm going to take a shot here opposite Romero. RR has dominated the TB lineup over his career and there's no reason to think that won't continue on Tuesday considering they are without Upton and struggling to score runs right now. In fact, despite both teams playing to more overs than unders, neither team is hitting all that well right now (both hitting .220's against right handed hitting so far). I have this game set 7.04 giving us almost a full run of value and and requiring a final score of 9 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Indians ML (-120) 1x (Locked)

I find it interesting that the -1.5 RL is only at +130 with the ML at -120. Usually, you would get a better value on a runline at this moneyline price. Hmm....I wonder why that is. Anyway, we will backing Masterson at reasonable prices all year long as my model loves this guy and what's not to love with his rare ability to get ground balls with a lifetime GB/FB over 2, a lifetime SIERA, FIP, xFIP and tERA all under 3.8, K% of 18% and lifetime BABIP over .3 showing this guy has not been the product of luck. Masterson will be facing Millwood and his 37 year old body that actually pitched well in providing a quality start in his game. However, I don't think he will fare well in this game facing an Indians lineup that knows what to expect from him. I do worry that the Indians lineup is pretty weak at the moment, but I really don't have a lot of confidence in Millwood in this game. I have the Indians set at -125 giving us only 5 cents of value, but I think this one might close in the high -120's or more. Masterson is due for a nice bouneback after a short outting against the White Sox. I think he leads the Indians to the victory and I am rolling with Cleveland for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Giants ML (-131) 1x (Locked)

We're getting about 8 cents of value on this game and I think Baumgarner is the Giant's new "stopper" with Lincecum out. I am rolling with the Giants for 1x. Good luck.

[dlunc3]

bol on the late play... keep it man..

going into tonight ive missed 4 of your plays so far this short season, and they are 4-0 haha... missed the sf play too.. so you should have a winner

keep up the good work

[That Guy]

Wow... Some tough breaks in NBA and MLB today.. Down 7 units and a win not looking likely...
always tomorrow!

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/18/2012

Play #1

Devil Rays/Blue Jays under (8.5)(-120) 1x (Locked)

I will try to get a full writeup posted tomorrow. Good luck.

[mikea33]

LTA. Better days will come and I am not worried. THanks for all you do

[TC Woods]

LTA. Better days will come and I am not worried. THanks for all you do

Same here...

[mikea33]

Wild thang.......................


Wheres charlie sheen when u need him?!

Lets please close this out Cleveland

[mikea33]

This isnt really happening to us...

[dlunc3]

yep... instead of game ending dp, its first and third one out... so sick

[That Guy]

Good win with the Indians!
Closed it out in the end... roll onto tomorrow and forget about these bad beats
Had to happen eventually

[Sidetracked]

crazy win to end the night, wound up taking indians last minute...from down 1-8 rally back to win that never happens good game LTA get em strong tommorrow

[LoneStar]

rolling with u w cubs, i love dempster....gonna try my luck with the tampa bay under too my books got 8.5 even money best of luck

my head and stomach hurts when i think about tampa bay under

[Love The Action]

LTA. Better days will come and I am not worried. THanks for all you do

Geez....we have one losing day going 2-3 and you get this down? You are going to give yourself an ulcer.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/17/2012 Recap

2 - 3 = -1.15x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

26 - 20 = +6.7x

That bottom of the 9th inning loss on the dodger/brewers under stole another winning day away from us but we move on. Good luck.

[Redscot]

The gloves let us down last night, such is life. Longoria had some uncharacteristic blunders which opened up the gates to a big inning in the 3rd, then Dempster's throwing error really changed the complexion of the Cubbies game. That being said, Cub's are gonna be tough to back with that bullpen they have right now. GL today bro, hectic morning ahead of me, catch you in the pm.

[brucethebear]

Geez....we have one losing day going 2-3 and you get this down? You are going to give yourself an ulcer.

Missed the giants, but had the cards. A few sweats today. With a little luck, could have been a 4-1 day.
Onto tomorrow.....

Really like the rays under.
Also like Dickey as a road dog against a less than inspiring Jurjens.

[Love The Action]

The gloves let us down last night, such is life. Longoria had some uncharacteristic blunders which opened up the gates to a big inning in the 3rd, then Dempster's throwing error really changed the complexion of the Cubbies game. That being said, Cub's are gonna be tough to back with that bullpen they have right now. GL today bro, hectic morning ahead of me, catch you in the pm.

I missed the price jump on the cubbies overnight. It got all the way up the the +130's. That's great value for garza. Now its down to +#12. No play at that price. Lets wait and see....

Good luck today

[speez11]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/18/2012

Play #1

Devil Rays/Blue Jays under (8.5)(-120) 1x (Locked)

I will try to get a full writeup posted tomorrow. Good luck.

Book already dropped to 8

[mirandoce]

Mets looks great at +120 with Dickey today..... plus the Braves will rest Brian McCann and Chipper Jones.
whats your thoughts LTA?

[No coincidences]

Where did you get the 8.5 on TB/TOR?

[crazed]

it is 8.5 -120 at 5dimes now.

[XGamer]

Ray/tor is opened at under 8/+100, LTA has -120 for under 8.5

[No coincidences]

it is 8.5 -120 at 5dimes now.

OK, thanks.

[guil0000]

Crazy movemnt in the Cubs/Marlins ML.... I wasn't expecting this. Anyone knows why?

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/18/2012

Play #1

Devil Rays/Blue Jays under (8.5)(-120) 1x (Locked)

I will try to get a full writeup posted tomorrow. Good luck.

Play #2

Phillies/Giants under (5.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Good luck.

[Catchn_Picks]

Play #2

Phillies/Giants under (5.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Good luck.

Well, it is official. My first Under 5.5 bet of my lifetime.

BOL

[Love The Action]

Like the underin the early met game, but the ump is over friendly and it looks like rain which may lead to early bullpen action. Good luck for those playing the early game.

[fitguy67]

NoCoin...love ur new avatar...1984 tigers had one of the clearly best years ever in baseball (100% "wire to wire" from opening day to WSchampionship...kicked off with a phenomenal 35-5 start)...back when they still played in Tiger Stadium on Michigan and Trumball...feel thirty years younger now!