LTA's MLB Plays

[TC Woods]

Final lean on indians/seattle under but still undecided...

Seattle, being my local team, should win with the King tonight

[pacocn]

Rough morning.

You hungover?

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/20/2012

Play #1

Twins/Devil Rays under (8)(-120) 1x (Locked)

Sometimes you just have to lay juice on MLB totals and this is one of those times for me. Even though I think there's a chance this takes a move toward the over allowing a better price later on, I think there is an equal chance this drops to 7.5 and I don't want to risk losing out on 8. We have the unfamiliarity factor in play for both sides as neither Moore nor Hendricks have pitched against the opposing lineups. I'm big on Moore and I expect him to really slow down Morneau and Mauer. I think this kid is destined for greatness. On the other side, Hendricks has been rather effective in his time in the majors with a lifetime SIERA, FIP and XFIP in the 3.7 range, a K% around 17% and GB/FB 1.5. Granted, those numbers are only over 5 stats so the sample size is statistically insignificant, it's all we have to go one and validates his success in Australia. Hendricks throws a full four pitch repertoire of fastball, curveball, slider and changeup, with his fastball in the low 90's. He's a little too contact prone, but the game is in the under-friendly Trop and the unfamiliarity factor gives both pitchers the edge. Based on the limited data, I have this game set at 6.96 giving us a hair more than a full run of value. It's going to take a final score of 9 to beat us and I don't think it gets there. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x.

Play #2

Braves/Diamondbacks under (9)(-120) 1x (Locked)

More juice and a very similar reasoning for this play as in the first play. I think it's important to get the key number of 9 and even though it might move up there's the same chance it could drop to 8.5. The sharps know these guys can pitch and the roof being open might not affect this game as much as other matchups. Cahill is a true ground ball specialist with a GB/FB 6 on the season (insane), 2.2 last season and lifetime of 1.84. Needless to say, this guy knows how to get ground ball outs. Just like in the first play, Cahill has the unfamiliarity factor working for him coming over for the AL and Beachy also has that working in his favor having only faced AZ for 15 at bats against only 4 guys that he might see in this game. On the other side, Beachy won't have to face Young and probably not Upton, but even if he does I think he should find success. The guys has improved his ability to throw ground balls and he is a natural strike out artist. The roof is scheduled to be open, but the ump is one of my favorites for the under with Rob Drake and his high strike rate averaging over 63% for his career and lifetime record that favors low scoring games. I have this game set at 7.91 and it's going to take a final score of 10 to beat us. I don't see it and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[pacocn]

Lta, minor correction first play should read it is going to take a final score of 9
to beat us.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/20/2012

Play #1

Twins/Devil Rays under (8)(-120) 1x (Locked)

Sometimes you just have to lay juice on MLB totals and this is one of those times for me. Even though I think there's a chance this takes a move toward the over allowing a better price later on, I think there is an equal chance this drops to 7.5 and I don't want to risk losing out on 8. We have the unfamiliarity factor in play for both sides as neither Moore nor Hendricks have pitched against the opposing lineups. I'm big on Moore and I expect him to really slow down Morneau and Mauer. I think this kid is destined for greatness. On the other side, Hendricks has been rather effective in his time in the majors with a lifetime SIERA, FIP and XFIP in the 3.7 range, a K% around 17% and GB/FB 1.5. Granted, those numbers are only over 5 stats so the sample size is statistically insignificant, it's all we have to go one and validates his success in Australia. Hendricks throws a full four pitch repertoire of fastball, curveball, slider and changeup, with his fastball in the low 90's. He's a little too contact prone, but the game is in the under-friendly Trop and the unfamiliarity factor gives both pitchers the edge. Based on the limited data, I have this game set at 6.96 giving us a hair more than a full run of value. It's going to take a final score of 9 to beat us and I don't think it gets there. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x.

Play #2

Braves/Diamondbacks under (9)(-120) 1x (Locked)

More juice and a very similar reasoning for this play as in the first play. I think it's important to get the key number of 9 and even though it might move up there's the same chance it could drop to 8.5. The sharps know these guys can pitch and the roof being open might not affect this game as much as other matchups. Cahill is a true ground ball specialist with a GB/FB 6 on the season (insane), 2.2 last season and lifetime of 1.84. Needless to say, this guy knows how to get ground ball outs. Just like in the first play, Cahill has the unfamiliarity factor working for him coming over for the AL and Beachy also has that working in his favor having only faced AZ for 15 at bats against only 4 guys that he might see in this game. On the other side, Beachy won't have to face Young and probably not Upton, but even if he does I think he should find success. The guys has improved his ability to throw ground balls and he is a natural strike out artist. The roof is scheduled to be open, but the ump is one of my favorites for the under with Rob Drake and his high strike rate averaging over 63% for his career and lifetime record that favors low scoring games. I have this game set at 7.91 and it's going to take a final score of 10 to beat us. I don't see it and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Royals ML (-108) 1x (Locked)

This is a great spot to fade what will undoubtedly be a big public play on Toronto with KC on a losing streak and Drabek coming in hot while Hochevar is coming in cold. However, as we all know, that is what creates "value." Instead of looking at statistically significant numbers and sample sizes, the majority just peruse recent numbers. However, once you dig a little deeper you see that Hochevar is clearly the better pitcher at this point of their respective careers and although Drabek has talent, I do not believe he is as good as he has shown. The KC bats should be ready to roll in this game coming into this game on a losing streak and I expect that streak to end on Friday. I have KC set set at -120 which is pretty standard for home field advantage so I think getting -108 is a great deal. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Royals for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Lta, minor correction first play should read it is going to take a final score of 9
to beat us.

Thanks buddy....good luck tomorrow

[Love The Action]

Final lean on indians/seattle under but still undecided...

Really kicking myself for not playing this one as it could have been an even bigger day....oh well

[TC Woods]

Really kicking myself for not playing this one as it could have been an even bigger day....oh well

Yup, you should know by now that the Mariners can not hit the ball. Add in that the King is pitching for Seattle = Very low scoring game.

Ump is squezzing Felix quite a bit too...

Unfortunately for me, I have to sit here and watch it...

[Love The Action]

Yup, you should know by now that the Mariners can not hit the ball. Add in that the King is pitching for Seattle = Very low scoring game.

I wish it were that easy.....

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/20/2012

Play #1

Twins/Devil Rays under (8)(-120) 1x (Locked)

Sometimes you just have to lay juice on MLB totals and this is one of those times for me. Even though I think there's a chance this takes a move toward the over allowing a better price later on, I think there is an equal chance this drops to 7.5 and I don't want to risk losing out on 8. We have the unfamiliarity factor in play for both sides as neither Moore nor Hendricks have pitched against the opposing lineups. I'm big on Moore and I expect him to really slow down Morneau and Mauer. I think this kid is destined for greatness. On the other side, Hendricks has been rather effective in his time in the majors with a lifetime SIERA, FIP and XFIP in the 3.7 range, a K% around 17% and GB/FB 1.5. Granted, those numbers are only over 5 stats so the sample size is statistically insignificant, it's all we have to go one and validates his success in Australia. Hendricks throws a full four pitch repertoire of fastball, curveball, slider and changeup, with his fastball in the low 90's. He's a little too contact prone, but the game is in the under-friendly Trop and the unfamiliarity factor gives both pitchers the edge. Based on the limited data, I have this game set at 6.96 giving us a hair more than a full run of value. It's going to take a final score of 9 to beat us and I don't think it gets there. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x.

Play #2

Braves/Diamondbacks under (9)(-120) 1x (Locked)

More juice and a very similar reasoning for this play as in the first play. I think it's important to get the key number of 9 and even though it might move up there's the same chance it could drop to 8.5. The sharps know these guys can pitch and the roof being open might not affect this game as much as other matchups. Cahill is a true ground ball specialist with a GB/FB 6 on the season (insane), 2.2 last season and lifetime of 1.84. Needless to say, this guy knows how to get ground ball outs. Just like in the first play, Cahill has the unfamiliarity factor working for him coming over for the AL and Beachy also has that working in his favor having only faced AZ for 15 at bats against only 4 guys that he might see in this game. On the other side, Beachy won't have to face Young and probably not Upton, but even if he does I think he should find success. The guys has improved his ability to throw ground balls and he is a natural strike out artist. The roof is scheduled to be open, but the ump is one of my favorites for the under with Rob Drake and his high strike rate averaging over 63% for his career and lifetime record that favors low scoring games. I have this game set at 7.91 and it's going to take a final score of 10 to beat us. I don't see it and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Royals ML (-108) 1x (Locked)

This is a great spot to fade what will undoubtedly be a big public play on Toronto with KC on a losing streak and Drabek coming in hot while Hochevar is coming in cold. However, as we all know, that is what creates "value." Instead of looking at statistically significant numbers and sample sizes, the majority just peruse recent numbers. However, once you dig a little deeper you see that Hochevar is clearly the better pitcher at this point of their respective careers and although Drabek has talent, I do not believe he is as good as he has shown. The KC bats should be ready to roll in this game coming into this game on a losing streak and I expect that streak to end on Friday. I have KC set set at -120 which is pretty standard for home field advantage so I think getting -108 is a great deal. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Royals for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Phillies/Padres under (6) (-115) 1x (Locked)

I'm backing Volquez and Hamels one more time after they burned us in different efforts last week. I think we see different results in this one because both lineups are struggling mightily right now and the game is in Petco after all. Hamels desperately needs a bounceback performance and likewise for Volquez. The ump is Bellino and he's a young guy, but over his four seasons has more unders than overs with a meaty strike rate well over 63%. I have this game set at 5.2 and I usually like to have a full run of variance between my model and the posted number, but in this game I think we have enough factors pointing to the under to roll that way and I am doing just that for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/19/2012 Recap

4 - 2 = +2.48x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

31 - 23 = +8.98x

Just keep on grinding....good luck.

[TC Woods]

I wish it were that easy.....

Agony just ended

Felix pitched 8 shut-out innings, striking out 12. The mighty offense scores one run for him...

Closer blows it in the 9th, seattle loses 2-1

Normal

[Laissez Faire]

Thanks LTA i parlayed Dodgers ML and Reds/Cardinals over 7.5

crazy...so did I

[apurvaas]

LTA, any thought on Phillies -128 over padres? also Mets -132 over SF? I don't know much about baseball but I like these two plays a lot!
Please provide your valuable input

TIA

[Love The Action]

LTA, any thought on Phillies -128 over padres? also Mets -132 over SF? I don't know much about baseball but I like these two plays a lot!
Please provide your valuable input

TIA

Theres a modicum of value on the phils at -128 but that number is gone and up to -132 which is the number I have. Their offense is scuffling and I believe the under is a better play with more value despite the low number. There is no value on the mets at the number you mentioned and is actually overpriced imho. GL

[BiffTFinancial]

LTA, love the Twins/Rays under. love Trop unders in general, and my one concern is that we don't know ump. well, only two over umps worked 1B last night who weren't on west coast (MLB rarely sends umps from west to east overnight) were Davis and Danley. Danley worked the TB/TOR series, so he's out, and as was much discussed after his last game, Davis' zone appears to have changed significantly since mid-2011, such that he's not such an over ump anymore. bottomline, i don't think we get screwed by ump here, and we could get an under ump (Vanover or Hallion) who gives us even more value. and of course, there's always the minor chance that Morneau sits against lefty. one concern is Rays pen, but that will always be the case this season with a Trop under. BOL to you tonight, LTA.

[demarco2]

Hey Lta, thanks for everything you do for all of us followers who like betting, but wouldn't even know where to start on their own. Should it be very infrequent ~25% so far this season that I am able to get a line similar to yours on baseball. The ML bets are usually greater than 10 points worse and the totals usually are the total you say you're avoiding. In basketball I rarely had any trouble getting the same line. Is there anything I can do about this? I usually see your picks around 7am. If I'm up at 1am or so would my chances be much better?

Thanks a lot.

Play #4

Phillies/Padres under (6) (-115) 1x (Locked)

I'm backing Volquez and Hamels one more time after they burned us in different efforts last week. I think we see different results in this one because both lineups are struggling mightily right now and the game is in Petco after all. Hamels desperately needs a bounceback performance and likewise for Volquez. The ump is Bellino and he's a young guy, but over his four seasons has more unders than overs with a meaty strike rate well over 63%. I have this game set at 5.2 and I usually like to have a full run of variance between my model and the posted number, but in this game I think we have enough factors pointing to the under to roll that way and I am doing just that for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

LTA, love the Twins/Rays under. love Trop unders in general, and my one concern is that we don't know ump. well, only two over umps worked 1B last night who weren't on west coast (MLB rarely sends umps from west to east overnight) were Davis and Danley. Danley worked the TB/TOR series, so he's out, and as was much discussed after his last game, Davis' zone appears to have changed significantly since mid-2011, such that he's not such an over ump anymore. bottomline, i don't think we get screwed by ump here, and we could get an under ump (Vanover or Hallion) who gives us even more value. and of course, there's always the minor chance that Morneau its against lefty. one concern is Rays pen, but that will always be the case this season with a Trop under. BOL to you tonight, LTA.

Thanks for the insight. The line has certainly moved in our favor. Good luck buddy

[Love The Action]

Hey Lta, thanks for everything you do for all of us followers who like betting, but wouldn't even know where to start on their own. Should it be very infrequent ~25% so far this season that I am able to get a line similar to yours on baseball. The ML bets are usually greater than 10 points worse and the totals usually are the total you say you're avoiding. In basketball I rarely had any trouble getting the same line. Is there anything I can do about this? I usually see your picks around 7am. If I'm up at 1am or so would my chances be much better?

Thanks a lot.

If you like one of my plays, you should try to get on it as soon as I post otherwise the line is likely to move in my favor over 75% of the time by the time the closer comes around. However, I cant tell you a specific time I am going to post a play because it all depends on when I think the steam will hit and in what direction. I play a lot of overnight lines because I am very confident in mine and my model's ability to project which way a line will move. However, sometimes I need to wait till right before gametime to get the best number. Its all about getting the best price and there's no set time for that. Generally, if I am playing an overnight line, it will be posted by 2am EST because I usually sleep between 2am and 6am. Hope that helps....good luck.

[Love The Action]

Got great numbers last night on the dbacks under and drays under, but the line surprisingly moved against me on the royals play by six cents. I wonder why so many sharpies like the jays tonight?

[Les_Nuts]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/20/2012
Play #2

Braves/Diamondbacks under (9)(-120) 1x (Locked)

More juice and a very similar reasoning for this play as in the first play. I think it's important to get the key number of 9 and even though it might move up there's the same chance it could drop to 8.5. The sharps know these guys can pitch and the roof being open might not affect this game as much as other matchups. Cahill is a true ground ball specialist with a GB/FB 6 on the season (insane), 2.2 last season and lifetime of 1.84. Needless to say, this guy knows how to get ground ball outs. Just like in the first play, Cahill has the unfamiliarity factor working for him coming over for the AL and Beachy also has that working in his favor having only faced AZ for 15 at bats against only 4 guys that he might see in this game. On the other side, Beachy won't have to face Young and probably not Upton, but even if he does I think he should find success. The guys has improved his ability to throw ground balls and he is a natural strike out artist. The roof is scheduled to be open, but the ump is one of my favorites for the under with Rob Drake and his high strike rate averaging over 63% for his career and lifetime record that favors low scoring games. I have this game set at 7.91 and it's going to take a final score of 10 to beat us. I don't see it and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

I like this play, Cahill is an under machine but has been under the radar for a while. He is finally showing it this year.GL

[apurvaas]

Theres a modicum of value on the phils at -128 but that number is gone and up to -132 which is the number I have. Their offense is scuffling and I believe the under is a better play with more value despite the low number. There is no value on the mets at the number you mentioned and is actually overpriced imho. GL

Thanks buddy!
I took yankees boston Over 10 and Miami Washington over 7.5 just before it got hit hard on over.. hope i made right plays

[ChicagoCover]

LTA, any thought on Phillies -128 over padres? also Mets -132 over SF? I don't know much about baseball but I like these two plays a lot!
Please provide your valuable input

TIA

Line movement favoring the giants majorly, i'd jump on it while their still at plus odds

[No coincidences]

Got great numbers last night on the dbacks under and drays under, but the line surprisingly moved against me on the royals play by six cents. I wonder why so many sharpies like the jays tonight?

I'm seeing 71% on Toronto so far -- not sure "sharp" money is moving the line.

[crazed]

LTA, Do you use 5dimes or something else? Do you have/use the reduced lines they offer?
thanks

[bleedtoledo]

^ I know LTA uses a couple local bookies, one follows 5 dimes & the other follows ..legends, I think.

It's basically a rule of thumb, you should have a few books. That way you can get the best number on your play, especially for baseball. If you read through LTA's previous posts, I'm sure he speaks on this.

[apurvaas]

Line movement favoring the giants majorly, i'd jump on it while their still at plus odds

Line is Mets -140 at 5d and =160 at SI at the point! (2:47pm PST)..

[BiffTFinancial]

Thanks for the insight. The line has certainly moved in our favor. Good luck buddy

Winters behind the plate - not significant.

Morneau out and Twins fielding a weak lineup were probably part of the line move.

[J.M. Disciple]

Considering adding your plays as my 4th system, but I am really unsure how to labby these picks. With so much action going on I would have to run around 3 lines. Also posting plays at different times would make it some what of a hassle to keep checking the forum for plays.

Any advice on how to handle this?

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/20/2012

Play #1

Twins/Devil Rays under (8)(-120) 1x (Locked)

Sometimes you just have to lay juice on MLB totals and this is one of those times for me. Even though I think there's a chance this takes a move toward the over allowing a better price later on, I think there is an equal chance this drops to 7.5 and I don't want to risk losing out on 8. We have the unfamiliarity factor in play for both sides as neither Moore nor Hendricks have pitched against the opposing lineups. I'm big on Moore and I expect him to really slow down Morneau and Mauer. I think this kid is destined for greatness. On the other side, Hendricks has been rather effective in his time in the majors with a lifetime SIERA, FIP and XFIP in the 3.7 range, a K% around 17% and GB/FB 1.5. Granted, those numbers are only over 5 stats so the sample size is statistically insignificant, it's all we have to go one and validates his success in Australia. Hendricks throws a full four pitch repertoire of fastball, curveball, slider and changeup, with his fastball in the low 90's. He's a little too contact prone, but the game is in the under-friendly Trop and the unfamiliarity factor gives both pitchers the edge. Based on the limited data, I have this game set at 6.96 giving us a hair more than a full run of value. It's going to take a final score of 9 to beat us and I don't think it gets there. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x.

Play #2

Braves/Diamondbacks under (9)(-120) 1x (Locked)

More juice and a very similar reasoning for this play as in the first play. I think it's important to get the key number of 9 and even though it might move up there's the same chance it could drop to 8.5. The sharps know these guys can pitch and the roof being open might not affect this game as much as other matchups. Cahill is a true ground ball specialist with a GB/FB 6 on the season (insane), 2.2 last season and lifetime of 1.84. Needless to say, this guy knows how to get ground ball outs. Just like in the first play, Cahill has the unfamiliarity factor working for him coming over for the AL and Beachy also has that working in his favor having only faced AZ for 15 at bats against only 4 guys that he might see in this game. On the other side, Beachy won't have to face Young and probably not Upton, but even if he does I think he should find success. The guys has improved his ability to throw ground balls and he is a natural strike out artist. The roof is scheduled to be open, but the ump is one of my favorites for the under with Rob Drake and his high strike rate averaging over 63% for his career and lifetime record that favors low scoring games. I have this game set at 7.91 and it's going to take a final score of 10 to beat us. I don't see it and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Royals ML (-108) 1x (Locked)

This is a great spot to fade what will undoubtedly be a big public play on Toronto with KC on a losing streak and Drabek coming in hot while Hochevar is coming in cold. However, as we all know, that is what creates "value." Instead of looking at statistically significant numbers and sample sizes, the majority just peruse recent numbers. However, once you dig a little deeper you see that Hochevar is clearly the better pitcher at this point of their respective careers and although Drabek has talent, I do not believe he is as good as he has shown. The KC bats should be ready to roll in this game coming into this game on a losing streak and I expect that streak to end on Friday. I have KC set set at -120 which is pretty standard for home field advantage so I think getting -108 is a great deal. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Royals for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Phillies/Padres under (6) (-115) 1x (Locked)

I'm backing Volquez and Hamels one more time after they burned us in different efforts last week. I think we see different results in this one because both lineups are struggling mightily right now and the game is in Petco after all. Hamels desperately needs a bounceback performance and likewise for Volquez. The ump is Bellino and he's a young guy, but over his four seasons has more unders than overs with a meaty strike rate well over 63%. I have this game set at 5.2 and I usually like to have a full run of variance between my model and the posted number, but in this game I think we have enough factors pointing to the under to roll that way and I am doing just that for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Pirates ML (+133) 1x (Locked)

Good luck.

[LeoMessi]

Hey LTA, please one quick question. When you bet on +odds, you bet to win 1 unit or you bet 1 unit to win for example 1,1 unit if the odds are +110?

[Love The Action]

I have been waiting all day to jump on the pirates and I finally pulled the trigger. Its a pure value play as I have them at +115, however, I am actually a believer in morton because of his rare ability to throw ground balls at such a high rate. I could be burning money with this play, but I think the pirates come to play tonight and lynn is ripe for the letdown in this spot with the whole world on the cards. The pirates love to play the cards tough and I think they pull the upset tonight. Good luck.

[No coincidences]

I have been waiting all day to jump on the pirates and I finally pulled the trigger. Its a pure value play as I have them at +115, however, I am actually a believer in morton because of his rare ability to throw ground balls at such a high rate. I could be burning money with this play, but I think the pirates come to play tonight and lynn is ripe for the letdown in this spot with the whole world on the cards. The pirates love to play the cards tough and I think they pull the upset tonight. Good luck.

Lance Lynn should not be -145 on the road vs. anyone at this stage in his career. Period.

[Love The Action]

Considering adding your plays as my 4th system, but I am really unsure how to labby these picks. With so much action going on I would have to run around 3 lines. Also posting plays at different times would make it some what of a hassle to keep checking the forum for plays.

Any advice on how to handle this?

Hmmm....not sure I can help with that one. Some days I might have one play and others seven plays. Just depends on the value on the board. Plus, I cant control when I post because its all about getting the best price. GL

[JM92]

Holy shit two early runs. missed the play by seconds. and bet365 live already had them at + 140 i have no idea why. damn it.